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1-VIX

🤨 When in Doubt...17th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ ...sit out. In my humble opinion, the current short-term price action in equities are highly ambiguous. This often happens at key inflexion points when prices temporarily move sideways. Sometimes this is the market digesting recent moves e.g. the upward surge or the market is in search of direction awaiting some news or catalyst. ➤ With ambiguity comes the danger of forcing a trade or reading too much into a particular price action. For example, the Russell 2000 small cap stocks performed terribly today, breaking below support. Technically, I could make a case for shorting the Russell yet if I look at other equity indices, they ended above or very near support levels on this bearish day. The VIX (fear index) actually contracted showing lack of bearishness. Based on my experience, it is much better to wait another day for things to develop than eagerly risk capital in search of gains. ➤ I currently have zero exposure in the market. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Thursday is Action Day?
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
VIX overlay on on SP 500 reveales Micheal burry prediction. I overlaid the VIX on top of SPX. Lets take a look at history and some realistic poinst to bounce from mania phase. The SP500 is performing better than the nasdaq. We are about to have a death cross of the weekly 50 over the the 200 ema/sma, on weekly candle on both indexes. I did a over lay on the nasdaq as well and posted. VIX hasn't even spike. Technical analysis says all hell is about to break lose. Professional analysis on cnbc and such, are permabulls. I checked my TA against Michea Burry prediction. And came up the the same figures. Good luck. Don't hedge into crypto. DXY control sp500 (spx, spy), and btc is just another sector of spx, so don't hedge into crypto. If the market goes down, so will crypto.
SP:SPXShort
by Crypto-Crapshoots
That Was Not Good, 16th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I didn't change the title from yesterday's post for an obvious reason. The news about the "errant" missile landing in Poland. The first thing that comes to mind is "uncertainty". Uncertainty is not good for markets albeit this one may be short-lived. ➤ That being said, from a technical view point, markets bounced off the daily low strongly closing the gap created by the higher open. The uptrend is intact for now. Speaking of gaps, there is a large gap unclosed since 13th Sept just above current levels in the S&P500 (SPY). There is also the massive gap created on 10th Nov when prices leapt higher post inflation data. The market likes to close those price gaps. ➤ The last of my long positions was closed. Leaving us in a familiar territory of having no positions. That's not a bad thing given the uncertainty. The key to my Strategy is to only get involved when there is a clear price structure with a good probability of success. I don't think I'll be out of the action for long though. Price action on Wednesday will most likely determine new positioning. ➤ I currently have zero exposure in the market. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Wednesday is Action Day.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
That Was Not Good, 15th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ It was looking good for my Bullish position until the final hour of trading. Then things went sour. Prices reversed course. That Was Not Good. ➤ It was not good for two reasons: ➀ My fear of being taken out by choppy conditions has materialised. Exit signals were given. That meant I had to cut most of my positions at market close. Overall a set of break-even trades. Not disastrous but very disappointed with giving back profits. ➁ Price action leaves the market in "limbo", at least in my view. It was not a sufficiently strong reversal to give a short signal. That means price can maintain its Bullish stance but without my participation. A case of Fear of Missing Out (FOMO). ➤ At the end of the day, it was good to stay disciplined and not second-guess my process. Wavering on decisions and letting emotions get in the way will lead to inconsistent behaviour and erosion of confidence. Eventually, that will lead to disastrous results. ➤ I hold a +8% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Looking forward to the next set of trades that are just around the corner.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
SPX Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022 SPX Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022 Currently the implied volatility for this asset is around 3.12%, down from 3.33% of last week. From volatility percentile, point of view, we are currently on 65th from ATR and 51th from VIX index. With this volatility percentile values into account we can expected on average that the weekly candle is going to be: 2.86% for bullish 2.73% for bearish With the current IV, we can expect with a 75.7% probability that the market is not going to close either above or below the next channel: TOP: 4116 BOT: 3851 Lastly, based on previous calculations, we have: 79% to hit the previous weekly high of 4014 26% to hit the previous weekly low of 3738
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
Bull Charge Continues, 14th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Good Monday, we experienced some extraordinary market action last week. Beginning with the BTC/Crypto plunge and ended the week with a massive bullish move in equities. Not to be outdone was the sharp reversal in the USD. The USD reversal is a big deal. ➤ Equities extended the rally off the yearly lows accelerating past key resistance levels. Price is in "clear" air territory. VIX continues to contract, it may continue to do so heading for the 20 level. At that level momentum to the upside ceased on numerous previous occasions. ➤ I was caught out by the "false" Bear positioning mid-week. I'm hoping to recoup those losses quickly with a continued rally. Will the Trading Gods play another trick? ➤ Interesting to note that the NASDAQ has led the way in the latest up move whereas it was lagging badly from the bullish move off the yearly lows. Perhaps there is some sector rotation here. Reducing exposure to bluechip names (DJIA) and increasing exposure to Tech where market participants are severely underweight. ➤ I continue to hold a +64% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: The price is always right.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
The Big Turn?Good morning!!! Wow....just wow. What a day yesterday. Caught me way off guard, that's for sure. The CPI report really just lit the markets on fire bringing it back to that upward channel from the October 13th low. A few days ago I was already mentally preparing myself that this market could go touch 4000 or even 4100. I just wasn't expecting to get there so soon. I did say that I would CAUTIOUSLY buy into this market and follow it up to 4000ish. But with the gap up yesterday and strong momentum, I decided to just watch the action and wait for another entry. So in the near term, looks like it's leaning more bullish. We now have about 64% of stocks above their 50 day, we broke above resistance (3900) and it may have the strength to get to 4100. But then what? Is this the big turn we've all been waiting for? I don't know. Seems that way after what happened yesterday. But I'm still not convinced. You know, I've noticed that over the years, Goldman Sachs is pretty good at calling where we will end the year on the S&P. Earlier this year, they had originally forecasted that we would end the year at 4300. But then... around June or July? Somewhere around that time. They changed their outlook to 3600. Why? What are they seeing coming in 2023 that we don't? I don't know, I feel something bigger is to come in the coming weeks. Plan for today: Since we gapped up yesterday, I didn't buy into it and I really don't want to chase this rally until I get a couple more confirmations. Even though we are above the 50 day and broke out of the downward channel, I'll need a few days to see if I should enter any short positions or get bullish. If we end today with a Harami candle and Monday we have an up day... gotta get bullish. But if Monday we have a down day, then that could show signs that we could head lower. I still wanna see that VIX get to 40 or 50. Either way, be patient, stay disciplined and trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
SP:SPX
by MMOTA_