VIX Simple Chart AnalysisVix supported as well. If things continue to fall at US market, it will revisit 28 to 34 area again till CPI data day. All this chart index is our key to monitor the movement of bull & bear.
1-VIX
VIX - what what what ?!What Do I see here ?! The Double Top Neck didn't get retested (red circle)
Ladies and gentlemen.... this means only one thing - if a retest hasn't appeared yet, it is more than likely to reverse the other way in the near future - and that is no surprise to me.
So far VIX has been following my lines - and I expect nothing else for the next months. We are now at support, ofcourse consolidation may happen but overall this should be the local bottom and we should start going up - and from here - in theory - sky is the limit. Anything can happen any time. And sadly it won't happen when expected so just keep monitoring. Yesterday's FOMC was really bearish and gave no hope for bulls.
Now stocks and risk-on assets have a pretty open highway to the downside.
...And Down She Goes, 3rd November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ If you ever doubted the effectiveness/importance of support and resistance levels/zones, I think that has been put to bed by today's price action in the S&P500 equity index.
➤ All you need is to look at the price action in the past few days. Price has tried valiantly on multiple occasions to overcome the resistance zone. Today saw the ultimate failure.
➤ However, failures like these are not always full gone conclusions. In my analysis of such situations in the past, many times prices have held on to re-ignite the bull charge. The probability of this happening is certainly well below 50% but we shouldn't dismiss it.
➤ At European equity market close I was able to add short positions to hedge my initial long exposure. This did help to offset the majority of the loss. At close of US trading, I exited the long positions and entered small short positions. Portfolio is net short with -34% exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Bears are back in charge but it's not too late for the Bulls to strike back.
Poised to...2nd November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Yesterday in Australia was the running of the 162nd world-renowned horse race, the "Race That Stops the Nation" - The Melbourne Cup. The blue-ribbon event is a 3200m long-distance race and each horse is handicapped by age, weight and "quality". In theory, due to the handicap, each horse has a fair chance of winning. This year's winner is Gold Trip with odds around 15 to 1 or $1 bet wins $15. The favourite for the race was odds of around 5 to 1.
➤ Just like the Melbourne Cup, it's time for the US Federal Reserve Cup. Whilst the FOMC members are no thoroughbreds, they do seem have staying power with market participants who hang on their every stride. Today, onlookers are poised for the "Rates that Stops the World". Market behaviour is showing nervousness. S&P500 failing at resistance again in the pink zone for three days in-a-row. DAX and STOXX50 in Europe also stopping short of key resistance levels.
➤ I've betted on horses for the fun of it, but when it's serious money like my trading capital, I'm not keen to get too involved. It seems my Strategy agrees given it is not giving any trading signals other than "sit-tight" for now.
➤ My exposure sitting tight at 20% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Place your bets, big winners and losers expected today.
SPX LAGGING DJI & VIX in caution zone again$VIX is oversold already, doesn't mean can't go lower but should be viewed as short term caution
$SPX has UNDERPERFORMED $DJI by a lot & forming BEARISH ENGULFING
Interesting as it had BULLISH ENGULFING & broke small Inverse Head & Shoulder
#stocks
Volatility - Green Line.This is how the next level collapse would look in the UVXY Volatilty derivative. The SP500 is pretty much inverse of this.
Each movement propagates and grows as the crashes become increasingly volatile, as the historic inflationary levels of the entire market begin to collapse.
Good Luck, God Speed, Love & Light to all!
Pause...1st November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Welcome to November. Just two months to go prior to the end of a long but so far successful year. However, there will be a lot of action and many trading opportunities still to come.
➤ Except maybe not for a day or two. As if on queue we have a pause on proceedings. This is to be expected both from a fundamental and technical viewpoint. We are awaiting the important US Interest Rate decision on Wednesday and S&P500 is up against strong resistance (pink zone).
➤ If you are familiar with my trading style, you will know I don't like these 50/50 situations. Prices can break above or falter at the resistance. It's a perfect set-up by the Trading Gods to take your money. They either can hunt down your well-placed stop-loss or trap you against your directional bet. This is especially true when important economic data is released.
➤ My exposure is low right now so I'm quiet relaxed. I did have a go at buying NASDAQ yesterday, but cut the position as price failed to hold well. My overall 20% long exposure remains. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Unless something dramatic happens on Tuesday, my positioning will remain the same. I'll be waiting for the fireworks display on Wednesday to show the path forward.
VIX - Will the FED spark another rally in the volatility index?On 18th October 2022, we warned investors that our short-term price target of 35 USD would be pushed further into the future if the market rallied until the FED meeting. Now, we are growing increasingly bullish on the index and expect it to return above 30 USD and then continue toward our short-term and medium-term price targets.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
VIX Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022 VIX Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022
Currently the volatility for this week is around 12.11% , up from expected 8.8% last week.
According to ATR calculation, currently the volatility is located around 10th percentile.
Under this circumstances the expected movement of the candle is :
BEAR : 9.4% from the opening point of the weekly candle
BULL : 11.6% from the opening point of the weekly candle
At the same time, currently there is 22.8% that the movement within this weekly candle is going to
break and close either above or below the next channel:
TOP: 29.3
BOT: 24.5
Lastly, taking into account the previous weekly high and low there is a :
35% chance that we are going to touch the previous week high
60% chance that we are going to touch the previous week low
VIX vs BTCOkay can someone explain this to me ? I guess not, Because I know that this can't be explained - and worst is - mathematicians have proofs of life being a "thing" made out of fractals - literally everywhere and between everything.
Well, back to markets - here We can See the Daily chart BTC fractal on the 1h timeframe of BTC - and also on the 1h timeframe of VIX - vis has played out nicely ( have posted about this fractal last week)
Now let's see if it leads us to low 19k on BTC.
VIX - Sentiment's unchangedVIX has been replicating 2008's sentiment 1:1. And has now retested the bottom - Ofcourse it can still consolidate or visit some local new lows but overall the idea is to keep this range - and go for the final blow.
Bearist for stocks.
Time for a Pause? 31st October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ S&P500 leapt higher to the upper resistance zone highlighted in pink. This is probably the best opportunity for price to take a pause or reverse downwards. A clear break above the zone will give the Bulls impetus to push higher as there is little to no resistance left until the top of the double-bottom formation as explored in a previous post.
➤ VIX is approaching the pink zone as well where reversals have occurred. This will add weight to the Bearish argument. We will know soon enough with key economic data/policy decisions this week including US employment, manufacturing and interest rates.
➤ I closed my ill-timed NASDAQ short exposure and also cut my long exposures in half. Leaving an overall low 20% long exposure. This will change quickly if prices reverse course. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Inflexion point incoming?
VIX: Double Top + Broken Trend LineThe volatility index looks bearish in my view.
Bearish divergence on the daily
Double top
Cross down on the MACD
Broke the diagonal uptrend level of support
Targets that I am looking at are 23 and 20.
Is the Blow-Off Top Beginning?My apologies for forgetting to start my TradingView stream guys. I'll get my act together and promise to catch you in the next video.
Risk for Stocks increasing again $VIX $DJI
$VIX in middle of range, normal for now
RSI RARELY oversold
Maybe 1x per year & we're @ lower end
$DJI Comparison to last peak
In overbought territory
"2.5% upside" - ??? downside
Reducing longs
Our LARGEST position $TWTR = cash now
As we go higher raising more cash again
We are Many, 28th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ One thing I like about trading indices is that I don't have to deal with individual stock risk. A reasonably diversified portfolio will do the trick too. We have seen some major moves in the price of mega cap stocks this earnings season. Meta, Netflix, Amazon to just name a few. Overall, at the index level, they were pretty much non-events. The Many overcame the Individual.
➤ With the exception of tech, indices have overcome the bad individual stocks moves. This lends to a sense of bullish resilience. Something we probably haven't seen for a while. Does this mean that this bullish bounce is more sustainable or simply a case of "better" macro-economic factors such as a potential easing of interest rate rises have temporarily overshadowed bearish proceedings?
➤ I added a small short exposure in NASDAQ whilst keeping my longs in S&P500 and DJIA. An overall 30% long exposure. This will change quickly if prices reverse course. The S&P500 is sitting on short-term support. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Major earnings news is over...back to the macro-news grind.
I think I have cracked the code for the action on the VIX!This idea illustrates a repetitive pattern which occurs during recession/bear markets. First sign is the VIX keeps basing higher and higher then you get a well defined resistance line going back to the base line BEFORE the crash which coincides with the end of the bear market. Then you get multiple retracements on the VIX which are all shorting opportunities!!
I hope you benefit from this idea!
Peace
VIX - Look look !Well.. actually nothing to see here. All goes 100% as expected and expecting a bounce up from the circled area. Additionally I have underlined TrendExhaustion and RSi as they are showing signs of exhaustion - Bearish for stocks !!!
VIX is in the MIX, 27th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Price pushed higher once more but was unable to hold most of the gains. More often than not, this bearish looking daily reversal candle is not bearish at all. Buyers tend to bid it back higher.
➤ Price is approaching the next line of resistance. If successful in overcoming that hurdle, the next hurdle is some distance away at 417 on the SPY. That is 9% higher from here.
➤ The VIX (equity fear index) is contracting quickly well below my panic level of 30. If it keeps falling, it will soon hit the zone where things get interesting. This is the area where in previous months equity prices have reversed downwards and VIX rebounded higher. More often than not, the subsequent expansion in VIX has ended with equity prices setting a new low.
➤ I remain with 40% long exposure in US indices, looking for further upside in the short-term. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Keep an eye on the VIX.
VIX interesting fractalI have checked the amount of days from Mar 2020 first spike to the main low of this VIX smile, its 491d
If counting from the same low day 491d it comes to Nov 2nd! give it plus one day in case I should of start from the following day of the mid low.
Very interesting timing.
Also week of Nov 7th is a cycle panic week...
Im only looking up in VIX
Important reasons to buyFirst, at a very important level now, and it is clear that the selling momentum has decreased, any preparation or correction and breaking of a correction. You can buy to break the top
2X 4HR VIX ANALYSIS (200 EMA) (NEXT STOP BEFORE RUN !?)The Vix is the end all be all for stock once it spikes up. AS we look at previous cycles and price action we can see The vix is at a key level where it took off from october 22nd and september 22nd. If we get a reject or bullish confirmation look for the market to sell off because if volatility stays above 35 mark off buy areas for your favorite stocks and get ready to load puts stocks will discount way more!
Double Bottom? 26th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Price pushed strongly higher through resistance. After-hours trading is showing weakness due to earnings releases from Google & MSFT.
➤ With today's action, it is probably right to say the market structure has formed a double bottom formation (one could argue a small double bottom also occured with left/right bottom on 30 Sep/13 Oct). The larger structure has a left bottom on 17th Jun low and right bottom on 13th Oct low. If true, the first price target for the larger structure is the high at the peak on 16th Aug, price of 431 on the SPY. We are 12% away below that level.
➤ Most US/Europe indices have overcome short-term resistance levels.
➤ I added 40% long exposure in US indices, looking for further upside in the short-term. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Double-bottom formations are generally pretty reliable. Let's see how this plays out with the positive expectancy of US mid-term elections and the seasonal Christmas-rally.
