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1-VIX

Resistance is Futile, 25th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I'm not a nerdy Star Trek fan but it seems the phrase about resistance is appropriate here. For the S&P500, price is challenging the upper ceiling of the range that has unfolded from the start of October. ➤ A higher high has developed due to the temporary intrusion above the resistance level. This is a basic requirement to confirm a longer term trend change. A major higher low is now required. ➤ The bluechip DJIA (DOW30) is leading the charge higher. This is a bit suspect given that you would expect the riskier indices such as the NASDAQ to lead in a bullish environment. This may be a temporary lag but we need to keep an eye on it. ➤ I now hold zero exposure having exited my S&P500 position at resistance. I don't like to play when prices stop at support or resistance levels. More often than not, prices reverse course rather than break through. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I'm looking for a bottoming VIX. If this occurs, I will jump in to short the market. If prices keep elevating I will miss out but I won't be kicking myself for it. Is Resistance really futile?
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Oct 24th-28th.Big Tech Earnings Week.I hope everyone had a nice weekend. Stepped away from the markets on Friday as I went to Ensenada Mexico to celebrate my grandfathers 90th birthday. Dude is still going strong and showing no signs of stopping! Always important to spend time with your family, be present in the moment and not always think about the markets. Now, let's get into it. Interesting week last week as we finished Friday with a big green day. Which took many by surprise, especially after Thursday's candle, signaling a more bearish week. But if you sit back and take a look at the bigger picture, we've been in this zone for a few weeks now playing this tug of war game between the June lows and 3800. So, this is still a corrective phase that we're in and I don't think this is THE bottom. Remember that in Bear Rally's, sharp rebounds are to be expected. We're at the 20 EMA still and could continue to go touch the 50 EMA which would put us at 3800ish, 3850ish and still be considered a Bear Rally. With higher pivot lows forming, interest rates still rising with the 2 YR @ 4.6% and an inverted yield curve and a Fed with now intentions on pivoting. You gotta ask yourself: "Do we continue higher with all these head winds?". Many of these "earnings beat" headlines were already on reduced guidance. Corrections can happen two ways. With time, and with Price. Since about September 23rd, we've been correcting with TIME. And now looking for a corrective phase in PRICE with the move we saw on October 23rd and Friday's move. Now if we take a look at the VIX, you would think with all this volatility, it would be more aggressive but the VIX is a forward looking. It implies what is to be expected. And expectations came down last week but not significantly. Here's something to consider. Refresh and then Reinitiate. Sometimes when the market gets confusing, it's best to sit back and be patient for the right entry. Cash IS a position. Nothing wrong with waiting for a clearer picture. Look what happened back in May and June. There was hope in the market as it jumped up between the 20 EMA and 50 EMA before it continued lower. So, similar thing could be playing out here again. Let the hope phase fizzle out and reinitiate your execution. This week we have AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT announcing earnings and these guys are heavily weighted in the S&P, so important to pay attention to market activity. I am still bearish but not as bearish until I see what happens this week. Mange risk accordingly, position size, stay disciplined and patient. Happy Trading everyone!
SP:SPXShort
by MMOTA_
Whipsaw, 24th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ If the chart is looking congested, that's because it is. This is due to the whipsawing, range bound, choppy conditions. I think I've ran out of other descriptions...coiling maybe. I'm pretty sure market-makers are having a good time of it and perhaps day traders too...although the intra-day volatility and news flow, it may be hard to handle. ➤ With such conditions, it is probably wise to reduce risk and sit on your hands rather than being tempted to do something rash. That's exactly what I've been doing. There's been numerous times where a potential sustained bearish move looked to be on the cards but reversed course to snuff out that opportunity. An eager beaver would be licking multiple wounds from any pre-emptive strikes. ➤ That being said, price structures on all major equity indices in the US and Europe that I trade are almost back in sync. This simply means, once a trade opportunity arises, I will most likely be able to add risk simultaneously in multiple indices, hence, build a moderate to high conviction position at the portfolio level. Above average profits or losses should be expected. ➤ I remain long with +20% exposure for now. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Coiling price action, poised to strike.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
ES first target got hit!Posted this first target during the trading hours, we hit first target - 3650-60ES Now if looking at EWT theory, we got 5 down, now need 3 up into 3705-25ES target and then we start a strong move down, My first main target for the whole move down for this year is at low 3400, 3389SPX is where unfilled gap is. Then second and it was ideal target for the low of the year is at 3212SPX, will be very close if we see 3400 soon. - I do believe we hit 3212SPX at min this year Since my few weeks ago update, I have lowered my ideal target to 28 handle, 2855SPX to be specific! Now, if it really wants to extend, then my extended target is in 24 handle, 2410SPX if specific. But this update is not a long term update, so watching the numbers for tomorrow. There are some targets Im watching - 3685-3700SPX or my ES target for the wave 2 bounce at 3705-25ES. If we get above today's highs, then 3800SPX will be still in play, lower odds imo. Here is VIX chart, looking for 29 to hold. Interesting how its going down together with the market. The world is upside down now, nothing makes sense:) Please press that rocket button below, push this chart up for others to see. Also feel free to share my charts with anyone, lets get 1k followers, means my work is important for others to see.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RealTima
26
Losing the Forest for the Trees <SPY 330 - EOY to Q1-Q2? 2023 Many traders and wanna be analysts on here seem to be losing the forest for the trees. They're looking at short day or two pops, or even week long dead-cat-bounce/bear-market-rallies and thinking the bottom is in. Be not swayed by CopiumNBC or hopium perma-bulls that have never experienced a bear market. More traders than ever are active and involved in the market, and have been since 2012. They didn't endure 2008-2012, and they don't know how cold winter can get. Don't think that Joey B is impartial in denying we're in a recession either - he has party hopefuls going to the polls in a couple of weeks. Granted, rallies are natural on the way down; that doesn't mean they're sustained. Jerome wasn't citing Volcker last month for no reason. Core PCE came in at another 40 year high. Jobless claims keep batting under estimates. When Bostic isn't insider trading bonds during a prohibited lockup period, and Bullard isn't giving confidential off record talks to Citi executives in contravention of their rules, most of the fed sounds bearish. We've sold off ~26% from ATH on SPY but a real recession could see a >50% decline. That would equate to a range somewhere between 300 and 330; likely with a bounce/pivot at 316~. Elsewhere arguments have shown the Fed has *n e v e r* pivoted before VIX hit 40+. If the fed pivots sooner, of course we'll get more bullish (even if inflation after debasing our currency by a fifth of total supply in 2020 and 2021 has reduced real purchasing power significantly, all while redistributing wealth disproportionately to the richest with more of their wealth in the market than anywhere else). If you use JPOW's printing as a reason to discount the post-March 2020 COVID high as unrealistic funny money, 50% of our January-February 2020 high is an even scarier target - less than half our current valuation, around 161~ or our 2014 range. I highly doubt it gets that ugly, but the global economic climate is not bullish no matter what some snakeoil salesmen may be offering you. Where are your price targets? What are your expectations? Do you believe the FUD around a midterm rally followed by more selling? I believed it enough that I rolled out my 11/4 and 11/18 SPY puts to January and March strikes, and left profits on the table in the process. Do you think WMT or AMZN or CBP will endure better than growth stocks? They should, but how much better? My 401k is almost exclusively SQQQ (yay!) and bonds (RIP). Apologies for the chart trees / lumbermill - I play horizontal lines primarily as support / resistance, and I trade daily in addition to swings. It clouds your yearly view, but I also consult /ES and SPX as needed to avoid my own biases as exhibited in drawings. I appreciate your thoughts, even if you think SPY 500 EOY, I'll be glad to hear the punchline. Good luck, vaya con dios.
AMEX:SPYShort
by anothernic
Range or Trend? 21st October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Without wanting to sound like a broken record, prices are still treading carefully around the important support/resistance level. ➤ That being said, the Bearish picture is progressively getting clearer. Not enough yet to pull any triggers but very close. Here's why and why not: ➤ S&P500 price once again rejected the opportunity to stay above our key level at 371. Finishing near the daily low and printing a bearish looking candlestick. ➤ We can count the recent peak on 18th Oct as another lower high. The classic definition of a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows remains intact. ➤ VIX continues to contract. Now below 30, out of the panic zone. Contractions usually lead to higher equity prices. Not so in the last few days. This needs a resolution to clear up the overall bearish picture. I am watching this as a determining factor. ➤ I remain long with +20% exposure but will change drastically soon. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Prices are trending down but also staying within a range. Most signs show bearish continuation. Easy to get whipsawed here.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Trapped, 20th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Prices continue to dance around the key support/resistance levels. This time falling under my key level. ➤ It's not the only index doing this dance. STOXX50 is sitting right under the short-term resistance at 3484. On the other hand, DAX is hovering above the 12670 support. This also holds true for DJIA and NASDAQ, the former below and the latter above their respective key levels. This is not sustainable. They will need to decide on which side of the fence they belong. ➤ I'm now leaning towards the Bear case. I'm not acting on it right now as my short-term Index Trading Strategy hasn't sent a Short signal. However, my medium-term equity signal is threatening to flash RED and I've entered a Short trade for my long/short individual stock trading strategy. Timing is never perfect on these but the overall bias is there. ➤ I remain long with +20% exposure but will change drastically soon. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: The dance continues in these choppy and volatile conditions. Be agile and don't get trapped sitting on the wrong side of the fence.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Why is the S&P500 ready to go short again?Why is the S&P500 ready to go short again? This question can't be answer, I'm not a magician and no one will know what the market is going to do, but let's see what's giving me the hint of the short idea. Let's start from the Real GDP . We're going to consider the Real GDP which I'll be calling GDP during the post. After doing some research you can see how the S&P is directly correlated with the GDP, and that the GDP is directly correlated with the S&P, if one goes down in most cases the other one goes down and vice versa. If we lag the GDP by 6 months, we can see how over 80% of the times if the GDP goes in a direction, within 6 months will be followed by the S&P. There is only one scenario where we're not interested into trading, which is the ones where the GDP goes down and the S&P goes up. This is the most important rule in analyzing the market. If we want to see how the S&P is going to move than we have to predict the GDP, how can we predict the GDP? By looking at the Macroeconomics and Microeconomics data. In this post I'll only take into consideration the US Yield Curve otherwise the post is going to be too long and y'all lazy people won't read it. According to Investopedia, the yield curve graphs the relationship between bond yields and bond maturity. More specifically, the yield curve captures the perceived risks of bonds with various maturities to bond investors. The U.S. Treasury Department issues bonds with maturities ranging from one month to 30 years. As bonds with longer maturities usually carry higher risk, such bonds have higher yields than do bonds with shorter maturities. Due to this, a normal yield curve reflects increasing bond yields as maturity increases. However, the yield curve can sometimes become flat or inverted. In a flat yield curve, short-term bonds have approximately the same yield as long-term bonds. An inverted yield curve reflects decreasing bond yields as maturity increases. Such yield curves are harbingers of an economic recession. The S&P is also in a bear market since it's lost the 20% from its highest point and once our fundamental analysis is done, we can move on the technical part, it's not useless but can give us a good timing. Here in the chart, you can see the first cup and the second cup which are giving us the first hint of a continuation in down trend. Obviously, we need more confirmations but that's a first suggestion of what's going to happen. I know it's a short and quick post, but I'll update this or create a new post once I understand how the ideas section of TradingView works :) Good luck traders!
FX:SPX500Short
by DennisMantineo
SO NOW WHERE DO WE GO?Yesterday I said I would sit on my hands if we closed above the 20 day moving average because that would make me a little more bullish. And, well, we did. So now what? This has been a great traders market with all the volatility we've had for a few months now. All we can do as traders, is trade the market in front of us. We are still in a Bear Market and below the 50 day. Interesting things can happen here. And who knows, we might trade in this area for a few more weeks until it decides a direction it preferer's. That could get boring, but I doubt that happens. If it wants to, we can continue to trade between 3800 and 3600 with some big swings. Need to remember that next week, big tech will announce their earnings. I think next week we'll have bigger moves in the market. So what could happen today? Futures are currently trading 3705. And last night we peaked at 3765ish. Or maybe even a little higher. We could possibly gap down and lets say open at around 3690ish 3680ish, then push our way back up to 3760ish. Vix is back up to 31. Gotta keep watching this. If we close today higher than yesterdays high, we're probably going visit the 50 day. Another outcome could be that we open at 3690, push to 3760ish and close back at 3700. If that happens than the market needs more time to decide. Lets see what happens today. Manage risk, be patient, react and trade the market in front of you.
SP:SPX
by MMOTA_
2022 Crash - My plan to trade the volatility I don't really post these for anyone else but for my own intuition to see how it turns out. But I'll have a go at explaining for anyone who finds it worth reading. I've been waiting for this moment for a long time - and at times, been impatient. But it is now becoming clear where we are in this 'volatility cycle', in comparison to the volatility cycle of the 2008 financial crisis. I'm sure many of us are aware of the risk of serious economic crisis literally around the corner. Not to say I/we know when, or how serious -but rather that I'm pretty cock sure there is elevated risk of serious economic crisis. I won't go too deep into the macros because, well, you should know. And the conclusion I come to with what I think I know is that the fed may have created a multi asset bubble. How? Go google what % of dollars currently in circulation were printed in 2019-20. To conclude, kicking the covid recession can down the road gave us the final over extended bull run of. Bringing the end to a 12 year bull market. This goes for economic cycle too - monetary policy has been largely loose for this entire period (correct me if I'm wrong, I haven't actually checked the data on this.). But I do know it has been loose for a long time and the fed has stood ready to rescue markets and the economy where required to keep things tidy - ie. markets and economies growing. But as we all know, economies go in cycles, too. And after every boom comes a necessary evil - the recession. After every recession comes a boom again. We need a recession - but the further the can is kicked down the road, the higher the risk that it goes deep. Long story short and probably way to brief, the fed and government's over stimulation of the economy plus the supply issues born from pandemic and war have caused dollar devaluation and inflation. I don't care what anyone says - the SPX should not have gained 120% from the Covid lows. This is just silliness because of overstimulation (Michael Burry would agree). Why? How? Go google what % of dollars currently in circulation were printed in 2019-20. I'm surely not the only who sees things this way, right? All of this, plus some amateur looking TA comparison to 2008, and staring at these charts for far too many hours, days, weeks, months, - I think capitulation is around the corner. Terrible news for most, I know. I don't wish for this to happen - I'm just following the fed. And would rather profit from the consequences of policy mistakes (kicking the can down the road) finally being rectified (Quantitative tightening, increasing interest rates = restrictive monetary policy = no more money printer until inflation and demand and prices calm tf down). So, how do I plan to profit from this? Well, volatility takes off to it's high's of $90 when we see capitulation. But, if history rhymes, we will see one last rally in the SPX - and the last sustained drop in volatility before a capitulation event. I am short VIX currently, but stand ready to build long VIX at tops of SPX rallies, eventually neutralising my position towards support, and phasing out shorts and tightening up stops on shorts. I expect this to happen over the next 1-2 months. Let me be clear - the short position is no biggy here - it's just because clearly we may see a relief rally soon, before capitulation. So I expect volatility to drop BEFORE taking off. So I'm short, phasing into long. Then I'll see you all when VIX is at $80-90 - then I will phase out of longs into MAXIMUM short positions on VIX. Let me be clear - I'd short VIX at $80-$90 with everything I have. And I plan to. Seriously. I encourage you to think about it and debate your reasons why that is a bad idea. And with the proceeds from going long VIX through the volatility spike and then shorting VIX at $80-90, once volatility drops to c$35-25, I will start phasing into QQQ - 3 x leveraged Nasdaq 100. Anyway, the anticipated capitulation event could be triggered by any external factor - war escalating, fed increasing rates more than expected, something completely unforeseen etc etc, it's not important - what's important is that the economy has been running hot, inflation is high, asset prices are in bubble territory, and as a result the whole system is vulnerable - we just need something to happen for it to be an excuse for the dominoes to fall as they should at the peak of an economic cycle, and should have happened two years ago. Then, once the dust settles in a couple years (possibly longer depending how bad) we can all grow sustainably (hopefully in more ways than one) again in the next boom cycle. Thank you for reading. This is not financial advice
PEPPERSTONE:VIXLong
by Doge_Dean
🟰 Support & Resistance, 19th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Today's price action is showing the importance of support and resistance levels. At market close, you can see the price just holding a key level after another eventful day. Price gapped higher at open, it then dropped to fill the that gap and then recovered. After hours trading is showing further upside pressure post Netflix earnings results. ➤ The continued Bullish case would be for prices to overcome the next level of resistance at the 379/380 area on the SPY. This would set a higher high. ➤ The Bearish case would be the inability for it to hold that resistance level and/or close below the 371 level where price closed. ➤ I remain long with +20% exposure. ➤ Conclusion: Choppy conditions with supports and resistance levels in play. Directional/Trending trades will be difficult unless price clears these areas. Mean-reversion trades work best here.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
VIX overlay on on SP 500 reveales Micheal burry prediction. I overlaid the VIX on top of SPX. Lets take a look at history and some realistic poinst to bounce from mania phase. The SP500 is performing better than the nasdaq. We are about to have a death cross of the weekly 50 over the the 200 ema/sma, on weekly candle on both indexes. I did a over lay on the nasdaq as well and posted. VIX hasn't even spike. Technical analysis says all hell is about to break lose. Professional analysis on cnbc and such, are permabulls. I checked my TA against Michea Burry prediction. And came up the the same figures. Good luck. Don't hedge into crypto. DXY control sp500 (spx, spy), and btc is just another sector of spx, so don't hedge into crypto. If the market goes down, so will crypto.
SP:SPXShort
by Crypto-Crapshoots
Chop Chop, 18th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Prices did at U-turn (again) and reversed all of Friday's losses with Financials/Banks leading the way. We are back in a ranging market with this yo-yo type action. Prices may attempt to move higher to the top of the larger range if VIX continues to contract. ➤ I took profits on my European long positions as exit signals were given by my Strategy. I added a small long position in S&P500. ➤ I'm long with +20% exposure. I may add more US exposure if prices weaken. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I don't know when the chop will stop. It can be a tricky environment to trade especially with such large daily moves.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro