VIX is getting ready for that huge pop imoThis is getting super close. Wont rule out a fake down and then move up to above $60 level.
Some out there made a bet with Apr 2023 100 Calls for $4mil plus on Fri
1-VIX
VIX is telling you somethingVIX already broke the curve and even retested it.
We will doomp heavily in the coming weeks/months.
Don't invest long-term for now.
Upside Bias, 17th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Despite the retracement lower on Friday following the Thursday price surge, I am still looking for further upside. This holds true as long as the we don't have a daily close below the lows. As mentioned previously, I am expecting a re-test of the low, this may be that test or it is still to come in the near future. My medium-term outlook (for a few weeks) is also biased upwards.
➤ Clearly we are in a risk-off environment where performance of DJIA > S&P500 > NASDAQ. Therefore, I'm not expecting any long lasting bounce until there is evidence that NASDAQ is taking the lead. Riskier stocks should lead any substantial long-term rebound.
➤ I'm long with +40% exposure all in European indices. I would like to add US exposure but keeping risk low at this juncture is the right call IMO. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Earnings should play a greater role this week and next as all the big names will be releasing results and providing future outlook.
BTCUSDT Final Support Stages - LONGUpdate to BTC/USDT next Weeks forecast
From our analysis it appears that although there is a chance of price retracting to 18,500 mark.
In overall judgement the chance is so small ,considering the last weeks' green hammer candle close and this weeks close above last weeks open.
With almost 100% certainty market is going to take another sharp Bull run on Monday towards 21,500 mark and current support shall remain entrenched @ 18,900 mark.
USDJPN correction expected?I don’t really trade Forex, unless something catches my attention.
USDJPN has been climbing for a while now. On weekly chart it is overbought and even the strongest move need to take a brake once in a while,
Either if you look on EMAs or Fibonacci levels, correction can reach area 139-141.2.
It doesn’t mean it will but according to my analisys, most of the indices look like they they’re going for an upside move. With VIX being overbought as well.
The markets might get a bit more positive until November US rates decision.
Personally I think we might not get lower than 140.
Im not a professional trader and this is not a trading advice. Trading is risky. Always do your own analisys.
Are you ready for this?Traders,
Something tells me that many traders are not going to be expecting what's to come. Let's take a look at what I am expecting for short-term, mid-term, and longer-term market price action.
Stew
SPX500 - bears still in controlThe failed to hold the channel trendline, so it's looking bad for bulls. A quick update on what I'm seeing with the structure on SPX, SPY and the VIX.
Junk Bonds as Indicator of Overall Market RiskThe decline in junk bonds is generally an indication of high market risk. In this type of enviornment, investors of junk bonds demand higher yields to compensate for additional risks.
As bond yields and prices are inversely correlated, higher yields cause junk bond prices to fall; a repeating pattern over the last two decades.
When markets face a significant crisis, junk bonds fell along with other risk assets.
VIX Volatility only beginningVIX is showing higher lows and has broken above the Brim Level of a Cup and Handle.
This is problematic for a trader as it means a lot more jumpiness is coming.
It's also broken out of its downtrend on both chart and the RSI.
With the inflation rate going up, interest rates soon to go up in November and with more money going to be printed in the economy - this isn't good for the markets in the medium term.
Time to risk less per trade, I'd imagine.
Long Volatility into AugustBy now you all know the drill. Let's start with an initial framework, assess the current environment, and evaluate all below questions.
are we trending or ranging?
- a series of higher highs, higher lows
- sellers structure is broken, we are tracking whether buyers will protect or find it difficult to hold
discount?
- we are tracking the lows for the previous wave block
- Support 20, Pivot 25, Resistance 38
managing trade?
- Trading and assess based on quarters, 00, 25, 50, 75
- Market participation in form of current strength/weakness, when market is weak we are sellers and when strong we are buyers
This position, technically speaking, is very similar to the swing we traded in 2020. Buyers have developed a structure of higher highs, and higher lows, and desire their chance to go over to a direct attack on the highs.
In this case the result is not certain; but since attacking in this fashion is characteristic of a volatility event. There are two lines, assuming the 20 support holds. In the first case, as well we need to track 25, the combinatory breakout of 25 will allow buyers to continue their summer dance with a romantic hue, unlocking 38 for August.
VIX reached target, now correctionIt looks like VIX isn't yet ready to break entirely - Double top with the second one being curvy (lack of power) - Expecting this relief to play out now.
Roller-Coaster, 14th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ That was some ride. Pre-CPI markets pumped higher by 1.5% before plummeting post data to -4% for the Nasdaq. Only then to climb back up and finish strongly by over 2%. Similar price action happened on 24th Feb 2022 as the war started in Ukraine. TBH, I expected this movement but certainly not the extent of the volatility.
➤ I initially took off my long DAX position pre-CPI during the pump. DAX was significantly outperforming other indices on the day so I took some profits. That meant I had minimal exposure to the CPI data as I was only net long with 10% exposure. As prices plummeted, there was very minor movement in my portfolio as my long STOXX50 position held up better than my NASDAQ shorts.
➤ By the end of the European trading day, I bought back the DAX position and cut the NASDAQ shorts. Leaving me with +40% long exposure. After US market close, I decided against adding US long positions at this stage given the size of the upward move. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: We may get some continuation of the rally but there should be an attempt of the re-test of the low at some stage.
VIX Rejects AgainVIX has had yet another rejection off the key level. This resulted in strong short covering in stocks just as retail traders all agreed that the market could never go up again and could only go down.
We are at the edge of economy. Rate hikes has given zero affect We are at the edge of economy. Rate hikes has given zero affect on this money printing cycle with inflation at its highest. everything shows we need a 50% crash from todays levels leading to a 80% crash.Economy is now worse!
VIX is down all day!Should of been super green from the open.
Should of pay attention to it in am, would of save me from some stops
31.50 is the support
This will blow, still coiling
QQQ WHY THE 258/259 AREA IS SO IMPORTATNT .382 AND 50 % So what is next and why the support at 258/259 is why it is the point of focus in this CRASH . it is a pullback of 50 % from 2020 low to the peak . but more important it is a .382 within the super blowoff that ENDED AT 408.71 RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LONG TERM TARGET 406 TO 410 SEE DEC 2021 .So so many what to jump to the long side as we hit the target in time and targets in price the low was 254.9 just taking out the support but not in the sp almost to the tick it help 3490/3511 . I am and have been counting this as a super cycle top and will maintain that we had wave A from the peak at 408.71 down to the june low .And that we rallied in a perfect abc back up into the major spiral turn aug 16 to the 25 th for super cycle wave B we now have five waves down in wave 1 . I stated in in 8/16 this is the time we will see the market up here before we Crash in super cycle wave C low . wave 2 up has begun but if you think wave 2 up is going to be for a few weeks Think again . in every crash since 1902 the wave 2 of c is so quick you got TRAPPED with the rest the next decline is the CRASH and it will not bottom till 196 to 164 once it starts . So do you feel luck or Smart most of you I know will be feeling Lucky that why I make money and you seem to always which you did not make the mistake that you seem to not be able to stop . That is because I was a New york fireman before starting wavetimer . why does this matter it is the way my brain works I learned from two traders who were one a marine and one an ex navy seal . what do we all three have in common it is the being able to control our fear to stay alive and over come the natural fear of flight .I am no smarter than the next I just process it in a different way . best of trades Wavetimer !
Pop or Drop? Only 5x in History has BTC done this!Traders,
Bitcoin has recently become less volatile than the markets. The chart here represents Bitcoin's volatility over the Dow's. In the bottom pane you will see that as the red line rises, it indicates BTC is becoming more volatile than the Dow. As it falls? Less. Rarely, has it touched the zero point (horizontal red line in bottom pane).
As you can see from my chart, we have only touched the zero point area only 4x in previous history. We are now on the 5th. After each touch (represented by the vertical line), huge moves have followed. The first was a 50% drop. Everything else thereafter was fairly significant pops. So far, the data shows a 75% probability of a pop. Will we make it 80% with this touch or is another big drop in store?
Either way, a big move is incoming? What's your call? Post in the comments below.
Stew
Wave 1 of C is ending 3511/3490 CRASH We have now entered the time frame for the panic low 10/4 to 20th focus on the 10 Th . We have also reached the target 3511/3490 It is my view that being short is not worth the trade . I can tell you I feel rather strong about the 3511/3490 area TO HOLD and lead to what will be the last rally within 2022 time frame . as I posted major turn 8/16/25 in spirals . I am doing the math tonight . I can also tell you my own p/c models on an rsi bases R looking for a rally to relief the model . MY VVIX is still not hit any PANIC levels I stand my we will see 47 in the reg VIX
VIX is in C&H patternThis is getting so close for a breakout and big market sell!
There is also smaller C&H if it hits 31 level.
Regardless of a scenario, we are very close to some real move.
I was expecting this move and wanted to see a year low hit end of Oct into early Nov.
It seems its going to play out well.
Question is only one - how low?
Risk-Off, 13th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Minor down day in US indices. Pre-market was firmly positive until the PPI (Producer Price Index) numbers were released. It showed persistent inflation in the costs of production. These costs can be passed on to consumers and therefore feeds into CPI/Consumer inflation numbers.
➤ With CPI numbers coming out Thursday/today, we should expect a jump in volatility. I have no idea what the inflation number will be but there are bullish signs that I am willing to take some risk for a potential upside move.
➤ I further reduced my remaining short NASDAQ position to -10% and added long exposure of +40% with STOXX50 and German DAX. An overall small +30% long exposure. I think this is a sensible level of risk use given market conditions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: I'm risk-on for a move higher but also risk-off by taking a lower exposure than previous days. Manage your risks.
Gamble at your own risk - Global Financial Crisis of 2022/2023Do not pray to the false gods of guaranteed bailouts.
"The problem with all this is that it's their own policies that created the fragility, their own policies that created the dislocations and now we're relying on their policies to address the dislocations," Peter Boockvar of Bleakley Financial Group said. "It's all quite a messed-up world." -CNBC
Not everyone survives.
10 Year Treasury real yields showing a clear sign that liquidity is collapsing, the fastest rise since 2008.
UK Warning Sirens to Global Financial MarketsUK is a warning signal for everyone. This is what happens when central banks attempt to pivot in the current inflationary environment.
The Global Lehman event accelerated after the September U.S. CPI, but was paused by BOE temporary intervention.
Next U.S. CPI follows the end of BOE intervention.
A Lehman crash now equals approx -60% in GDOW/SPX.
The softer each step is down, and no sign of capitulation, the worst final low will be. Will the US be a safe-haven from a global financial crisis?
If you believe central bankers can unring the bells, now is the time to go ALL-IN.
