Get started

1-VIX

VIX is making higher highs and higher lowsWhile the market continues to rise and investors grow confident the rally won't stop, the VIX keeps subtly making higher highs and higher lows. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
4
SPY Correction Coming?Hello everyone! First two new charts for 2024. Another year another upside logic market. We're breaking ATH with continually decaying economic data, new banking troubles, new wars, and an election year and markets ignore it all. It's a Fed controlled market so mysterious!? Anyhow, in this chart I did a vague not so accurate EW that began Jan 2022 that bottomed in Oct 2022 which basically bounced off the Feb 2020 highs which pushed us into this new bull market. We finally broke the ATH for the S&P today with 5015ish, which makes me believe we should soon see a corrective wave hit. The first support will be early Jan support of 475. If this stays within this channel, we should see the correction over (C) at the same level as (2) of the bear market of 2022 which is March/April of 455ish giving us about a 10% correction. Now, this is all IF markets go as planned and there are no external factors influencing selling such as a larger scale geopolitical war, banking failures and so on. This is based off a market that is going at the current pace. That being said, I do see a major geopolitical event that will shake markets to their core but until then, we base our market moves on the Feds dovish nonsense. Technicals: - RSI, MACD are about peaked. - VIX is at critical levels
AMEX:SPY
by WorldEconomics
$VIX Possible Breakout? $VIX Tightest Base since 2018Weekly Chart from COVID Highs Weekly Chart has yet to break out the trend line (green bar) from COVID Highs The bottom appears to be getting tight and has consolidated sideways for weeks June - September 2023 the chart was basing which rallied 10 points in the end of September The base in June - Sept was not as tight as the chart is showing now This is even with AMEX:SPY continuing to increase but VIX holding it's range (KEY) Weekly chart showing a rounding bottom Zoomed-In Weekly Chart First we would like to see the weekly break the short term white trend line To break to the upside into the green downtrend line from COVID Highs we would need VIX weekly to break through and close above $15.75 High chance if it breaks $15.75 we will hit the top line of the downtrend which the price will depend on when this break will happen We could see highs of TVC:VIX to $17-$18 if breaks $15.75
TVC:VIXLong
by Tillbob
VIX is getting ready to roll The VIX failed to close the opening gap it formed yesterday, which is slightly concerning news (especially if also considering an ongoing bloodbath in the Asian market and the potential spillover effect into Western equity markets). As a result, we are closely monitoring the resistance at $14.49; a breakout above it will bolster the bullish case for the VIX, while the gap's closing will suggest otherwise. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
9
Sector Rotation Before CPI (SPY, QQQ)Clear sector rotation has been observed a day before CPI data release on Tuesday morning. It seems traders are getting out of Technology ( AMEX:XLK ) stocks and defensive sectors like Utilities ( AMEX:XLU ), Basic Materials ( AMEX:XLB ) as well as Industrials ( AMEX:XLI ) have been climbing up. HIGHLIGHT: The chart depicts S&P 500 ETF ( AMEX:SPY ) along with a ranking of all the major sectors at the bottom of the chart in an hourly setup. During the final hours of the last trading day (Monday) there has been a sharp sell-off of tech stocks as the industrials and basic materials have climbed up in strength. A slow decline in Health Care ( AMEX:XLV ) and gradual rise in Financials ( AMEX:XLF ) over last few days have also been observed. Please note that the first CPI of the year (January) usually creates volatility in the market. Which has also been observed in above 3% rise in the Volatility Index ( CBOE:VIX / AMEX:UVXY ) looking into the CPI release. s3.tradingview.com
AMEX:SPY
by Trading-Economist
S&P SPY OutlookThis market has been quite a tough one to figure out. As I have stated numerous times, it's become a game of chance. The markets have proven to completely ignore the horrible economic data, missed earnings, geopolitical crisis, QT, and so on. At this rate the stock market I believe is owned by just a small number of people and so I suspect we will see less and less significant moves in the market like we did in March 2020 and January 2021. Retail investors are nothing more than a drop in the water. This chart is based on the slowing inflation. We could see more downward pressure due to persistent inflation and rate hikes from the Fed, but from the looks of it, the QT will give way to QE once again and markets will clearly love that because it was QE that caused the 14-year bull market since QE was introduced in 2008. Without QE, markets are dead. Need proof? Google "S&P vs Fed Balance Sheet" you'll see that on the same week as QE was announced in 2020, was the same week markets started artificially rising and setting new all time high records during a PANDEMIC. Again, logical? No. Manipulation? Absolutely. I said it before and I'll say it again, once the Fed enacts QE again, it'll be the last time the do it. The economy and markets may like QE, but with it will bring a currency crisis as foreign holders will simply lose trust in the dollar. Almost every BRICS nation has dropped the dollar. Saudi is moving towards pricing oil in other currencies and the USD will be lights out. I believe we will see a currency crisis within 2-years. DXY will fall, inflation will rise once again because of new debt from QE and it'll be hell on earth for wall street and main street. You read it here. Check back, let's see what happens. In the short term, I expect some selling towards the mid line, and worse case is the bottom of the trendline. If we break through that bottom yellow, than it's gone. We could see markets just go to new all time highs because a 14-year bull market wasn't enough? The thing is, people have no idea whether to get in or stay out because we're just shy of ATH of the Dow. Who knows.... roll the dice and guess.
AMEX:SPY
by WorldEconomics
2
SPY ScenarioIf we use the Elliots Wave like in 2022, this is how it may play out. The selling has been steep enough to apply the Elliots Wave here. Catalysts for Oct is a hotter than expected CPI/PPI, especially with fuel inflation rising and fuel prices rising back near record highs. Bearish Technicals: (1-Week) - RSI - MACD - MFI ----- On the contrary, these moves while are some steep selling are not enough (yet) to say its a resumption of the crash that started Jan 2022. Perhaps we bounce off the trend line of Oct 2022, March 2023 and move back up for some unmerited reason?
SP:SPXShort
by WorldEconomics
5
VIX showing that tension is expected soon in the stock markets.When we looked at the Volatility Index (VIX) on our November 07 2023 analysis (see chart below) we compared it with the S&P500 index (SPX) : The S&P500 has reached the top of its Channel Up, while the VIX bottomed and is consolidating on a price action that is very similar to the July 27 2023 Low, which was the former Higher High of the S&P500 Channel Up. Today we plot both VIX and the S&P500 on the same chart and not side by side. As you can see VIX's 1D RSI has bottomed and is rising within a Bullish Megaphone, indicating that the price has already bottomed, which is a Lower Low on the Channel Down pattern it has been trading within since the September 28 2022 High (which has also been the start of the 2023 recovery year for the stock markets). The SPX is illustrated by the thin black trend-line and being negatively correlated in nature, when VIX declined within this Channel, the stocks rose and vice versa. Since October 23 2023, VIX started to decline again and that sparked the stock rise which is holding up to this day. VIX's bottom and rise though above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) within the Bullish Megaphone we just mentioned above, is an indication that the SPX has topped, similar to the February 02 2023 and July 27 2023 Highs, which where Lows for VIX's Channel Down. The chart clearly shows that VIX has just started its own (dashed) Bullish Megaphone (has always done so a little after the RSI Bullish Megaphone) and that was been the start of the S&P500 decline during the Higher Highs we mentioned. As a result, we expect VIX's volatility to apply high pressure on the stock market in the next 4-6 weeks, which should technically bottom and turn into a buy opportunity again only after VIX closes a 1D candle below both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as it did on November 02 and March 28 2023. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:VIX
by TradingShot
4
Chinese equities falling, VIX skyrocketing, and rally stallingOvernight, multiple Chinese stock markets established new lows, setting the negative tone for the European trading session and futures markets in the United States, with all major U.S. indices diving into the negative territory ahead of the regular trading hours. So far, the SPX has failed to get through the psychological resistance of $4,800 and establish new highs. At the same time, other indices like the Nasdaq 100, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Russell 2000 have been moving sideways since late December 2023. It is becoming increasingly apparent that the market’s bullish momentum continues to stall, which follows a period of extremely low VIX and cheap protection to the downside (two things that often precede a downturn in the market). As a result, we are closely monitoring an opening gap in the VIX; if the gap is not closed and the VIX continues to grow, it will strongly bolster the bearish case. The same applies to the decline in MACD, Stochastic, and RSI (plus its failure to break through 70 points) on the daily graph. In addition to that, there are signs of a double-top forming on the daily and weekly chart (not validated yet, though). Therefore, we continue to approach the market with heightened caution. Illustration 1.01 The image shows three major Chinese stock market indices: the Hang Seng Index, the CSI 300 Index, and the Shanghai Composite Index. The Hang Seng Index has continuously declined since early 2018, while the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 have declined since early 2021; the performance is measured from the all-time highs until the latest market close. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 portrays the daily chart of VIX. The yellow arrow indicates the opening gap in the VIX, a notable event, given its increase of more than 10% from the previous close. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows the daily and weekly chart of the SPX. Yellow arrows indicate two peaks, which could potentially evolve into a double-top formation. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral (turning slightly bearish) Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
3
🔄🌐 Preparing for Market Shifts - Time for Forex 💹🔍8+8 Risks🔄 Preparing for Market Shifts - Time for Forex 🔄 In 2023 I was very much focused on Crypto and especially Bitcoin. It ended upbeing a Great decision. Bitcoin remains my favorite asset but as a Trader i need to make the first decision right: What shall i focus on Trading now? Well, looking at the VIX a shift in our navigational charts could be prudent. Changing 'Market conditions'? Very likely inbound. Yes... 🌊 Navigating Calm VIX Seas - The Calm Before the Storm 🌊 The unassuming lull on the VIX, marked by a sub-7% hush, is a siren's call. With economic indicators suggesting a softening of the inflationary winds and a potential ease in rate hikes, the market's next cycle looms on the horizon. 💹 Back to school - Forex Awaits 💹 The pivot to forex is not a retreat but a strategic maneuver. The forex market, with its vast array of currencies, offers a diverse battlefield as we prepare for the next wave of market volatility. It's in these fluid forex waters that we can capitalize on the slightest economic ripples, turning currents into opportunities. 📊 The Forex Advantage - A hedge to Bitcoin and Crypto! 📊 Crypto will remain my favorite arena but Forex trading beckons with its promise of agility and scope, critical in navigating the uncertain tides ahead. The shift to forex and equities signals my readiness to embrace broader markets and old frontiers as we anticipate the VIX's silent warnings of change. 🔍 A Watchful Eye - What can go wrong 🔍 These are the main 8 areas where 'Trouble can Arise': 1. 🇨🇳 China's Challenges: Property Pressure Cooker 🏗️💥 The world economy has 2 lungs, USA and China. In 2008 the USA Lung got pneumonia.. and i am worried that soon a similar Chinese crisis could follow. Unlike Westerns, Chinese are savers but still: Chinese growth is worry number one. 2.🗳️ US Elections: Political Pendulum 🎭📊 The US political landscape is a battleground of ideologies, the crowds are fanaticized and these elections smell like TNT. Needless to say it's a Global worry that America has failed to have a Strong Political leader this period. I don't like what i see...this is worry number 2 3.💳 Debt Dynamics: The Global Balancing Act 🌍⚖️ You know what i mean... Is it under control and for how Long? This is worry number 3 4.🌐 World Wars: Geopolitical Flashpoints ⚔️🔴 The grim prospect of war requires a keen eye on safe-haven currencies and risk management. The situation in Ukraine could be ending but Middle East and shipping routes are a ticking bomb. Let's pray for peace 5.🤖 AI's Ambition: Promise or Peril? 🧠💡 Artificial Intelligence advances at breakneck speed, offering innovation but also posing systemic risks if gone awry. AI is faster than we thought and that would pose a new threat. In this section add the possibility of a Global network's failure of some kind and disrupted communications. We depend on the internet. 6.📈 Inflation's Impact: Trade and Turmoil 🚚📉 Disrupted shipping lanes spell trouble for global trade, stoking inflationary fires. As supply chains twist in the winds of change, Forex markets react in real-time, presenting challenges and opportunities amidst the chaos. 7. 💱 USD Currency Supremacy: A Throne Contested 👑🔄 The US dollar's reign as the premier global exchange currency faces tests from rising contenders. The battle for supremacy can redefine currency correlations and demand adaptive trading approaches. 8. 🏦 Banking Sector: The Keystone of Stability 🏛️🚨 We saw what happened last year. Banks can go bust and this is a valid scenario one better be prepared for...just in case! Another 8 factors could be: 🌿 Environmental Crisis: Disrupted Climate Costs 🌪️📈 🛢️ Energy Market Volatility: Wars over Lithium next? 🔄⛽ 🚀 Satellite Security Concerns 🛰️🔒 🌐 Cybersecurity Threats 🔐💻 🌍 The Incontrollable migration Frontier unrests 📉🆕 🏭 Manufacturing Migrations: Shifting Supply Chains 🔄🏭 🧑‍🤝‍🧑 Social Instability: The Cost of Inequality 👥💸 🌱 Food Security: Agricultural Anxiety 🌾🚜 As a trader i need to be prepared and I need to be hedged. Time to hedge my Crypto exposure with some FOREX trades this year. ... Just in (8+8) cases! One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
TVC:VIX
by FX_Professor
US Dollar, US Bond Yields, USOIL, and Volatility are Set To RiseFor the few years there has been a close correlation between the US Dollar Index, US Treasury Yields, US Oil, and The Volatility Index, as of right now all are forming similar accumulation patterns, with the DXY, and Oil both sitting at the PCZ of a potential Bullish 5-0 at the 50% Retrace after breaking above its trend and the US10 Year yield sitting at the 61.8 retrace of a potential deeper Bullish 5-0 aligning with previous support/resistance. If these Bullish 5-0s play out, I would expect to see the DXY, Yields, and Oil make higher highs. Meanwhile, the VIX is sitting at the PCZ of a potential Bullish Deep Gartley on the Log scale chart and appears to be double bottoming locally with a fair bit of lower timeframe Bullish Divergence. If the former 3 assets go up in price, I would fully expect the VIX to follow and potentially hit levels above $50.00 on an extra note, the WTICOUSD is also sitting at the 200-week Simple Moving Average and is testing a long term trend line, so this gives Oil even more support at these levels.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by RizeSenpai