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1-VIX

VIX long term WAVE C down will be UGLY once wave B is topI think all should understand that I am looking for that last short squeeze in the markets and NOT by any mean a new Bull market . My view is based on DATA of 123 yrs NOT wishful thinking . way too many of you have not lived thru a true bear market I have lived thru 5 and this will be my 6th I have studied Every bear market I will warning all a second time this is the last leg up . and if you do not want to be holding on with loses for 3 to 5 years use the last wave up to take advantage of the yields in 2 yr paper or just stay in 30 to 90 tbills the return will be one as the market is going to drop .382 of the whole move up 1974 or 2009 both will be very painful
FRED:VIXCLS
by wavetimer
1
Why it might make sense to craft a tail hedge now! Say you’re bearish but find yourself confused by the market. You want to partake in the action if things go south, but not 100% certain, what could you do? First, you could build some conviction by identifying potential reasons why you think the market could dip lower… Then, devise a ‘tail hedge’ to profit if things indeed go south. Let’s break down these two steps this week. In our past two articles, we've highlighted a couple of reasons why we lean bearish. You can find them here: S&P500 Vulnerabilities: from Money Supply to Sectoral Imbalanc & Why we’re watching the Bond/Equity Volatility . But as each week unfolds with more drama, let's revisit the market. The first idea we want to bring up is the rates-equity dislocation. On the equities front, we observe the following: The conventional wisdom has long held that low rates are good for stocks. However, with stocks rising while the Fed hikes rates, has this relationship been disrupted? From 2020 to the end of 2021, we clearly observed this classic dynamic. However, from September 2022 onwards, as stocks continued their ascent despite the Fed's rate hikes, a distinct shift became evident. Could this Equity-Rate dislocation be a by-product of the AI hype? Consider Nvidia’s stock price, which seemingly pinpointed the Nasdaq's low point. Question is… Is the AI hype a strong enough factor to permanently alter this relationship? In terms of overarching themes, there are generally defined up and down trends. AI ETFs seem to provide a rough gauge of the sector's peaks and troughs. With the previous peak in 2021 happening in the ETFs right before Nvdia peaks, again now we see a similar trend with the ETFs seemingly having peaked while Nvida trades slightly higher still, and we wonder for how long more? If this signals a pivot for Nvidia, then the Nasdaq, currently buoyed by AI hype, could falter. Now, turning to rates: What could drive rates higher? A string of robust US economic data regarding jobs and inflation has emerged. Recent figures for CPI, PPI, and NFP all exceeded consensus estimates, suggesting a robust US economy. Such data might embolden the Federal Reserve to maintain its tightening cycle. One way to interpret robust economic figures is through an economic surprise index, such as the Citi Economic Surprise Index. This metric quantifies the differences between actual economic outcomes and projections. A positive number indicates that the economy is outperforming expectations. When you overlay the Citi economic surprise index against the 13-week change in 10-year yields, a clear correlation emerges. When the economy outperforms predictions, yields tend to move in tandem. This increase in yield represents a significant deviation from its nearly 3-decade trend. Broadly speaking, the Nasdaq 100 Index hasn't experienced such a pronounced change in yield trends since its inception. On Volatility, Erik Norland from CME highlights an intriguing observation: the relationship between the yield curve slope and VIX when viewed from a 2-year average perspective. He suggests that equity volatility and the yield curve follow cyclical patterns, typified by specific periods: 1) Pre-Recession & Recession -Flat yield curve and high volatility 2) Early Recovery – Steep Yield Curve & High Volatility 3) Mid Expansion – Steep Yield Curve and Low Volatility 4) Late Expansion – Flat Yield Curve and Low Volatility Plotted, the cycle looks like this for the 1990s period; As well as the 2000s; Given our current position in the Equity Volatility-Yield Curve cycle, we might be bracing for higher volatility ahead as we're likely situated near the cycle's bottom left quadrant. If the trifecta of rising yields, waning AI hype, and a nascent high-volatility regime comes to fruition, then investing in tail hedges might be a savvy move. One potential structure for a tail hedge could be the 1X2 ratio put spread. This strategy could offer protection against adverse market movements, with the flexibility to structure it so that initial costs could be negligible or even result in a net credit. Additionally, the put ratio is typically a long vega strategy, which could be beneficial in a high-volatility environment. The 1X2 ratio put spread can be set up by taking 2 positions, 1) A short position on the Nasdaq 100 Index Futures with a strike price below the current level 2) A long position on 2 Nasdaq 100 Index Futures with a strike price further below the short option strike At the current index level for the Nasdaq 100 Futures March 2024 contract of 15,520, we could take a short position on the March 2024 put option with a strike price of 14,800 at 304.25 points credit and 2 long positions on the March 2024 put option with a strike price of 13,800 at 122.5 points debit. The setup cost of the put ratio is 304.25 – (2 * 122.5) = 59.25 points, resulting in a net credit. The maximum loss occurs when the underlying asset settles at 13,800 by option expiry, leading to a potential maximum loss calculated as follows: Long put options both expire worthless: -122.5 * 2 = -245 points Short put option: 13,800 – 14,800 = -1000 + 304.25 = -695.75 points Maximum loss = 940.75 points Considering the potential for loss and the associated risks, several profit scenarios emerge. If, as we discussed, the yield trend shifts and the AI hype subsides, the Nasdaq could potentially plummet. If the Nasdaq falls beyond the 13,104 level by option expiry, the strategy could be profitable. Conversely, if the Nasdaq remains range-bound at its current level or rises by expiry, we could also benefit from the initial credit received. Each 0.25 index point is equivalent to $5. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.yardeni.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by inspirante
$SPX analysis short & longer termCBOE:SPX chart is quite INTERESTING. We can see the obvious short term downtrend. We're currently at the bottom part of the GAP. Volume has been a lil lighter, holiday is likely the reason. RSI broke the downtrend it was in Maintained the longer term 2022 low up trend. Can AMEX:SPY reach the top part of the current downtrend? AMEX:SPXS AMEX:SPXL ------- Weekly CBOE:SPX Trading under the red moving avgerage. Still looks similar to 2022. Monthly AMEX:SPY MACD & RSI bounce do not look very strong from 9/22 lows. Does look like a lil bit like a cup & handle formation, interesting. Time will tell if that is what is forming/formed. TVC:VIX not showing much on the Monthly charts. Weekly MACD & RSI is showing some strength.
SP:SPX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
🟥 NEW LOW on IWC - Market Commentary⬇️ IWC NEW LOW The microcap ETF (IWC) has made a new low. This is not good at all. On the good side we did close up on the day - so we can call this a Rally Day and wait for a Follow Through Day (FTD). ↗️ WAITING FOR FTD SPX is sitting on the 200D Moving Average and Nasdaq s on day 6 of its Rally Day (marketd as RD on the chart). We are waiting for those FTDs in order to get into the action on the long side. 😰 FEAR NEEDS TO PICK UP The VIX like I said in my previous note, to print a picture perfect bottoming action, would need to double its low of 16, meaning a shakeout with VIX jumping to 24 would be a positive sign. 👨‍👨‍👧‍👦 SENTIMENT Sentiment is horribly bad - which is so negative it could be showing a market bottom. The chart below shows the % of stocks above the 50D (pane1), 200D (pane2) and the VIX (pane3). Only 32% of the stocks are above 200D which is v. bearish. Why we look at this? Because any real bull market would require participation from more than 7 mega cap stocks in order to be a) strong and b) lasting. Otherwise it is a very thin market - which is not healthy. 🚽 FLUSH POSSIBILTY I am cautious also that because the last couple of days we are seeing dislocations in relationships that are actually correlated *historically*. I am refering to interest, forex, utilities, bonds, commodities and so on. E.g. Oil broke down and the interest rates and the dollar went up. When this has happened historically there are a higher chance of a flush occuring. The probability is stacking but it would be a black swan. For the newbies a flush is a mini-crash. 📅 STAY ALERT REMEMBER We are always 4-5 days away to a new Bull Market. This is the time to keep your eye on the market. Know what the leading RS names are. Also we are about to enter earning season. Be cautious. My strategy is to never go into an earnings event unless I have enough profit to justify the implied volatility.
TVC:VIX
by TintinTrading
"Aggressive" VIX Short/ES Long SetupPossible volatility short/equities long shaping up. Still a lot of downside momentum/catching a bit of a falling knife + we'd rather see the NQ fill its gap south of 14400, but it could be time to start thinking about index longs given the levels both stocks and vol are approaching. Given that the Nasdaq still has further to fall before completing its gap fill, the ES could easily continue its decline (watch support/resistance levels ~4200). Something to keep in mind... Personally, we are waiting for confirmation entries before buying (looking for trend reversal signals on small timeframes), but more aggressive traders may find existing conditions more suitable for starter positions. Targeting is loosely based off of the red ES zones, but can also be mechanically derived and should be refined. Good luck! JHart @ LionHart Trading
TVC:VIXLong
by LionHart_Trading
Exploding MOVE/VIX Ratio: A Major Warning SignHey everyone 👋 Guess what? This post was created by two TradingView users! @SquishTrade and I collaborated on this post. We wanted to share our thoughts about the MOVE/VIX ratio, which has been exploding recently, and which may be presenting a warning about the future movement of the S&P 500 ( SPX ). Before we begin, here's a bit more about the MOVE index: The MOVE Bond Market Volatility Index measures the expected volatility of the U.S. Treasury bond market. It is calculated based on the prices of options contracts on Treasury bonds. The higher the price of these options, the higher the expected volatility of the market. The MOVE index is widely used by investors, traders, and analysts as a measure of risk in the bond market, as changes in market volatility can have a significant impact on the prices of bonds and other financial instruments. The above image shows a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond issued in 1976. Here's a bit more about the VIX volatility index: The VIX is a measure of volatility in the stock market. More specifically, the VIX measures volatility by using weighted prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates. When the VIX volatility index was created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) in 1993, it was calculated using at-the-money (ATM) options. In 2003, the calculation was modified to include a much wider range of ATM and out-of-the-money (OTM) strikes with a non-zero bid. The only SPX options that are considered by the volatility index calculation are those whose expiry period lies within more than 23 days and less than 37 days. The above image shows the highest VIX ever recorded at the close of a trading day. It occurred near the start of the COVID-19 pandemic shutdown. Recently, @SquishTrade discovered that the ratio between the MOVE bond volatility index and the VIX volatility index has been rising along a trend line (as shown below). Indeed, since 2021, the MOVE/VIX ratio has been exploding higher and is now approaching the highest level ever. @SquishTrade identified that the daily chart of the MOVE/VIX ratio has shown a moderately strong positive correlation to moves in the S&P 500, this correlation appears to be statistically significant. Citing the above chart, @SquishTrade further explains that: The peaks in MOVE/VIX seem to correlate with peaks in SPX, especially since late 2021 (exceptions in yellow circles). This makes sense. When a rise in MOVE occurs, but VIX stays low, this raises the ratio. Of course, when VIX stays low, it's almost always because SPX price has risen or remains supported. Overall, higher MOVE and lower VIX suggest underlying problems in broader bond markets / financial system / economy AND that this is not being reflected in implied volatility (IV) for SPX. In other words, for a variety of reasons, some of which may have to do with volatility players, equity volatility shows that equities don't care yet. When the VIX rises, the ratio falls. The interesting thing is that the peaks in MOVE/VIX correspond with the peaks in the SPX. The other interesting thing is the general trend up in MOVE/VIX and the corresponding trend down in SPX since late 2021. So when MOVE/VIX peaks, it is as if rates markets are flashing red, and SPX is rallying like all is well. That process continues until a top in both SPX and MOVE/VIX occurs, at which time SPX gets the memo, VIX rises, and the MOVE/VIX and SPX fall together. My response to @SquishTrade's above analysis is that: It is my belief that the explosive move higher in the MOVE/VIX ratio relates to the capital dislocation hypothesis, which I explain in further detail in my TradingView post below: In short, the capital dislocation hypothesis is that there is far too much capital in the stock market (SPX) for bond yields to be as high as they are (and while GDP growth is also as low as it currently is). Similarly, S&P 500 volatility (VIX) is far too low for bond volatility (MOVE) to be as high as it is, as @SquishTrade alludes above. Exeter's inverted pyramid (shown below) ranks financial assets according to safety, with the safest assets at the bottom of the inverted pyramid. Whenever an asset lower down on the inverted pyramid becomes volatile, riskier assets above it tend to experience some greater degree of volatility. This often occurs on a lagging basis since macroeconomic processes are not instantaneous. Therefore, we can extrapolate that the extreme volatility of U.S. Treasury bonds will likely precede extreme volatility in riskier asset classes, including stocks. Consequently, the exploding MOVE/VIX ratio is likely a warning that the VIX may move much higher soon. Chart analysis of the VIX, as shown below, potentially supports this conclusion. Bond volatility, as measured by the MOVE index, has likely increased due to the market's extreme uncertainty about the future of interest rates and monetary policy. This extreme uncertainty underpins the stagflation paradox: persistently high inflation pulls the central bank toward monetary tightening (higher bond yields) while liquidity issues and slowing economic growth pull the central bank toward monetary easing (lower bond yields), thus resulting in bond volatility. The explosion of bond volatility is likely a sign of impending stagflation, which may be severe. For more of my stagflation analysis, you can read the below post: Certain futures markets, such as the Eurodollar futures market, which typically guides the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, have been experiencing historically high volatility, as shown below. The above futures chart suggests that the uncertainty about future interest rates stems directly from ambivalent market participants. Since the Federal Reserve generally follows the market, if there is extreme uncertainty and ambivalence about the future of interest rates among market participants then the result will likely be a period of whipsawing monetary policy (whereby the Fed hikes, cuts, hikes, and cuts interest rates in rapid succession). In the quarters and years to come, we will likely see extreme monetary policy whipsaw as the Federal Reserve grapples with the dueling high inflation and slowing economic growth crises that characterize stagflation. Be sure to follow @SquishTrade on TradingView, and let us know in the comments below if you would like us to collaborate on additional posts! If you're interested in collaborating with us, also let us know! Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
Editors' picks
TVC:MOVE
by SpyMasterTrades
184
X Marks the SpotMister X marked the spot. He did it again in January of 2023. And apparently, he called it again. Unfortunately for the markets, mister X has a double identity. Mr. ❎ = Mr. ➡️ (mister x is my homie mister right) Classic technical analysis proves them right. 1. Volatility VIX is compressing, forming a triple bottom. (amongst other taboo signals) 2. Volume Stock market growth commonly shows volume divergence. ES1! Volume helps us see a clearer picture on SPX. After each instance, pain followed. Will this time be different? I may follow up to this idea with further information. I may not. Either way, be careful on who you trust (and when). One thing may be for certain. The time will come when X will miss the spot. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori P.S. For more information on volatility, you may take a look at the idea I posted a while ago.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by akikostas
9 day VIX signal for I.T.Low in markets is setting up nice The chart posted is one of the 9 vix .It is one my tools in my Models to determine market turns . we hit a near perfect .382 at the Peak in vix . I had talked about a level to watch in the single day vix of 18.88 and 19.89 often . I feel we are coming into the cycle the panic scycle were due into sept 21/23 and I feel that the 9/25 was the bulk of the drop I have been taken positions for what I feel is going to be the LAST BEAR MARKET RALLY PHASE. I maintain a view We will see 4731 +or - 13 now for the lasting top . I maintain that oct 13 2022 was wave A of super cycle bear
CBOE:VIX9D
by wavetimer
SPX | Don't fall for the trap...SPX is plowing through higher highs. It is a runaway train. Have you entered that train yet? You better enter it because SPX will soar! But runaway trains have the fate of collapsing in on themselves. Their weight is too much for the foundation to sustain. Not all is SPX. VIX is also attempting to measure the risk involved in SPX. And VIX is as bullish as it gets. But not all is VIX. It is important to analyze the volatility of volatility. We are really entering inception levels here. Volatility is too low and too stable . It is as if it is pressured to make all-time-lows. With such a low VVIX reading, we can conclude that VIX is having no second thought on dropping even further. Curiously, the VVIX/VIX ratio is a neat SPX tracker. I have posted about it ages ago. So what can we conclude about volatility? Historically, similar volatility traps have lead to severe crashes in the stock market. Will this time be any different? So what is in for the future? Perhaps an all-time high for SPX will come first. It is not that far... Then, perhaps some SPX divergence against VVIX/VIX. SPX to move higher with VVIX/VIX moving lower. And then darkness. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
V
by akikostas
11
VIX and S&P500 This is why stocks may rise now.Following yesterday's green stock market reaction, we compare on today's analysis VIX (Volatility Index) to the S&P500 (SPX) price action on the 1D time-frame. Our goal is to find clues to how the Volatility Index can affect the stocks. As you can see, VIX is trading within an Ascending Triangle which 2 days ago got rejected on its top (Higher Highs) trend-line. All this while its Lower Highs trend-line since September 2022 (1 year back) sits right above it. At the same time the S&P500 index found the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of its Channel Down (while the Higher Lows trend-line since the October 2022 market bottom sits right below) and on first impression appears to be rebounding. Being negatively correlated, the more VIX drops, i.e. market volatility calms/ decreases, the more likely it is for the stock market to rise, at least for the short-term towards the Channel Down top (similarly VIX to the Triangle's Support). In order to see it resume the long-term bullish trend, VIX most likely needs to break its Support. It is not unlikely as the market may respect the long-term Lower Highs (similarly Higher Lows for SPX) and hold it as new rejection point, but for the time being we have to keep our perspective on the short-term patterns (Ascending Triangle and Channel Down respectively) until shown otherwise. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:VIXShort
by TradingShot
4
/ES (SPY) Gap Fill Long with Confluence/Odds Enhancers!While wariness remains re: larger timeframe structure for US equities (+ continued weakness in US gov’t bonds, USD strength), we are stalking near/intermediate-term longs via downside futures gaps in both the ES and NQ. The YM and, to a lesser extent RTY, are also approaching possible buy zones, thus bolstering this trade’s attractiveness. While the primary premise of the trade is filling the downside gap into “demand”, odds are enhanced via the trendline and anchored VWAP, which coincide with ~4300 (major psychological #). When placing equity index futures trades at LionHart, we closely watch potentially correlated markets (VIX, DXY, ZF/N/B…). Volatility has had a nice move alongside the downdraft in stocks, but may be a bit overaccelerated as it approaches “supply” (red lines). If equity indexes fill downside gaps and pierce buy zones, watch the VIX and other related markets for reversal signals. Regarding trade concerns/targeting, we sometimes prefer subjective target/trade management via small timeframe charts; that methodology will be applied here. New overhead supply has formed ~4360 and traditional resistance traders may defend ~4340-50, so trade profit margin is not ideal. Given that equity markets have a bullish bias, though, we still believe capital is worth deploying. If you can purchase multiple contracts, consider scaling ahead of the abovementioned levels and hold runners if prices press higher. The red zones = supply, where unfilled sell orders remain. Thank you for reading, thoughts/feedback welcome, and good luck/happy trading! Jon
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by LionHart_Trading
$DJI @ a support level & oversoldStated a while ago, not sure if we posted here but did elsewhere (see profile), that we had short term Treasury exposure @ 50% but it's 75% atm. (it's a placeholder until trend changes) Should've been shorting the entire time down. TVC:DJI @ support but this area has not been a strong level. However, we are severely oversold so that bounce can be close & it can happen here. Sticking with the idea that large bounces should be sold of shorted until the technical data changes. #stocks AMEX:DIA
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Buying Opportunities When the VIX JumpsInvesting or opening long positions when the TVC:VIX jumps can be a profitable strategy if done correctly, as it often signifies elevated market fear and potential undervaluation of assets. But first, let's figure out what TVC:VIX is! The Volatility Index, or TVC:VIX , is a real-time market index representing the market’s expectation of volatility over the next 30 days. Often referred to as the "fear gauge," a surge in the TVC:VIX usually signifies increased uncertainty, risk, and investor sentiment that the market will move sharply, either downward or upward. So, now let’s take a look at the chart! You probably remember how we opened a position at level 13, and now we have designated a profit zone, and now the price has come exactly to this zone and I have already closed the position, now that the TVC:VIX has grown, this creates a good opportunity to buy heavily oversold securities long. How to find oversold securities, you can use a screener and filter out securities with RSI < 20 or were less than 20 recently. It is important to consider the quality of securities so as not to buy paper that no longer plans to grow. There are some good securities that I've already bought: NYSE:DG , NASDAQ:DLTR , WBA. Managing Risk Investors should consider implementing risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders and portfolio diversification, to protect against significant losses when the VIX is high. Maintaining a well-diversified portfolio and avoiding panic selling are also essential in navigating markets during increased volatility.
TVC:VIXLong
by bearishgreed_com
$VIX & $SPX at current levels to divergeGood Morning! The TVC:VIX is having a hard time in this area since March of 23. The SP:SPX is the most oversold since 9/22 but it can get more than what it currently is. However!!! Peak oversold seldom is the bottom! Only 12/18 was an oversold bottom. 1/22 was a temp bottom. Big bounces are likely best to short unless there's a big change in technical data. As we stated before, likely rate cuts next year to help if #stocks (#economy) are still weak in 2024. AMEX:SPY
SP:SPX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
H&S on SPY active. Will $410 target be hit?Traders, A strong dollar (11 weeks straight of green candles) and an elevated VIX has helped to trigger a break of this H&S neckline on the SPY chart. The pattern is now playing out but we are on support on the RSI chart where we can usually expect a bounce. Additionally, we have strong support at the 200 day ma just below us. Our target on this H&S is 410. The big question is will we reach that target or will the bottom of my channel which coincides with the 200 day ma catch us before falling that far? Best, Stew
AMEX:SPYShort
by stewdamus
Why we’re watching the Bond/Equity Volatility With the action-packed week of global central bank meetings for September now behind us, we believe it's an appropriate time to review where we stand. The current phase, in our view, can be aptly summarized by the words of Huw Pill, the Bank of England’s Chief Economist: a ‘Table Mountain’ scenario rather than a ‘Matterhorn.’ Recent announcements have positioned the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve as adopting a pause stance. Meanwhile, the ECB suggests that it is in the final stages of its hiking program, and Sweden’s Riksbank has just executed its final hike. While we remain slightly skeptical that these hikes may indeed be the final ones, let's entertain this thought and examine what transpires during periods of a defined pause. Defined pause periods raise alerts for us, as highlighted in our previous piece on US Equities. In that article, we pointed out the impact of a Fed pause, as it has often preceded periods of equity drawdowns. This pattern becomes even more evident when we consider other variables like shifts in the dollar and interest rates. Looking at the S&P 500 index —in 2000 and 2006—where a clear pause was observed, significant equity drawdowns followed thereafter. Furthermore, the 10-Year, 2-Year, and 3-Month yields have just reached their highest levels since October 2007, June 2007, and January 2001, respectively. These yields mark the highest nominal interest rates seen in decades across the interest rate curve. More significantly, this shift has brought real yields back to positive levels, something investors haven't seen for a while, all while the yield curve inverts to unprecedented levels. All of these factors have spill-over effects on investors accustomed to decades of low real interest rates. Another observation worth noting is that the ratio of Bond to Equity volatility has proven to be a reliable indicator for predicting the next market regime. For instance, during the 2008 period, a break in this ratio was followed by significant moves lower in the market. A similar phenomenon was observed in 2019, where a sharp break in the ratio of MOVE to VIX preceded the market's next downturn. What captures our interest now is a recent, significant break in this ratio, reinforcing our bearish outlook on equities. In terms of daily charts, the recent gap down places the index at a precarious juncture as it grapples with both a sharp break of the 100-day moving average and trend support. Compared to the last two instances when the index broke lower, the current RSI stands at even lower levels. Adding to this, only 18% of S&P 500 stocks currently trade above their 50-day moving average. Given the breakdown in the MOVE/VIX ratio, the global pause in interest rate policy, and supporting technical indicators, we are inclined to maintain a bearish stance on US equities. We can express this view via a short position on the CME E-mini S&P 500 Futures at the current level of 4347, with the take profit at 3800 and stop at 4500. Each 0.25 point move in the E-MINI S&P500 index Futures is equal to $12.5. We can also express this same view with the CME Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index. With each 0.25 point move equating to $1.25, its smaller tick size compared to the standard contract offers greater flexibility in position-building or averaging your entries. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
TVC:MOVEShort
by inspirante
2
$DXY $TNX $VIX stronger than previous recent runsGoing 2b away today meeting with partners. This post might just be the only one today TVC:DXY This is a pretty strong trend. TVC:TNX That last move was stronger than previous, look at the RSI. 10Yr #yield. TVC:VIX This move was also with more strength than previous moves. Conclusion: Our call to end BULL run was spot on. Should've went BEAR, it's what we thought but didn't want to rush. However, we did say that risk was towards the DOWN.
TVC:DXY
by ROYAL_OAK_INC