3 Standard Deviation Setup on Micro 10-Year Yield FuturesIntroduction
The Micro 10-Year Yield Futures contract has caught the attention of many traders recently, as its price action reached the upper 3 standard deviation of the Bollinger Band® in the daily time frame. This rare occurrence presents a potential mean reversion setup, where the price could revert back toward its historical average.
This article explores what mean reversion is, why it matters in trading, and how the 3 standard deviation Bollinger Bands® setup may indicate an opportunity to short this market. We’ll also discuss key price levels, contract specifications, and a potential trade setup for shorting Micro 10-Year Yield Futures.
What is Mean Reversion in Trading?
Mean reversion is a trading concept based on the idea that asset prices fluctuate around a central value or mean over time. When prices move too far away from this mean, they often correct or revert back toward that average. This is particularly useful in markets that experience high volatility or extreme price movements, as those extremes tend to reverse at some point.
In simple terms, mean reversion strategies involve selling (or shorting) assets when they are significantly above their historical average, with the expectation that prices will return to normal levels. Conversely, buying when prices are significantly below the mean can also be a valid strategy.
The 3 Standard Deviation Bollinger Band® Setup
Bollinger Bands® are a popular technical indicator used to measure volatility and price extremes. The bands are plotted a certain number of standard deviations away from a moving average. The further away prices move from the average, the more extreme the movement.
Reaching the upper 3 standard deviation Bollinger Band® is a rare occurrence that suggests extreme overbought conditions. Historically, when an asset reaches this level, the likelihood of a price pullback increases, as market participants may see it as an unsustainable level. In the case of Micro 10-Year Yield Futures, the recent rally has pushed prices to this rare zone, setting the scene for a potential mean reversion.
Key Price Levels and Resistance Zones
As the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures price approaches extreme levels, there are two key resistance zones which traders should be aware of: 4.174-4.021. These levels represent areas where selling pressure might intensify, pushing prices down and aiding in the mean reversion process.
Traders looking to capitalize on this potential mean reversion setup can consider initiating short positions within this resistance range. These resistance zones act as psychological and technical barriers, providing an opportunity for traders to place their entries. Additionally, these levels help to manage risk, as they define a clear area to set stop-loss orders just above the upper resistance.
Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements
Understanding the specifications of the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures contract is crucial for traders looking to execute any trade. Here are some of the key details:
Tick Size: The minimum price fluctuation is 0.001, which equates to $1 per tick.
Margin Requirements: Margin requirements vary. Currently, the initial margin for Micro Yield Futures is around $320 per contract, making it accessible to a wide range of traders. Check with your broker for specific margin amounts.
This knowledge is essential in calculating potential profit and loss in dollar terms, as well as determining the appropriate position size based on your available margin.
Trade Setup Example
Let’s now move on to a practical trade setup based on the discussed conditions.
Entry Point: Shorting Micro 10-Year Yield Futures within the resistance range between 4.174 and 4.021.
Stop Loss: A stop should be placed just above the upper resistance, say around 4.175, to protect against further price appreciation.
Target: The target for this mean reversion trade would be around the mean of 3.750, where prices are expected to revert based on historical behavior.
Reward-to-Risk Calculation:
If a short entry is made at 4.021, with a stop at 4.175 (154 basis points risk) and a target at 3.750 (271 ticks potential gain), the reward-to-risk ratio would be approximately 1.76:1. A higher entry point closer to the upper resistance at 4.174 would significantly improve the reward-to-risk ratio, but it also increases the likelihood of missing the entry if the market reverses before reaching that level.
In dollar terms, each tick (0.001) is worth $1, so the 154-tick stop loss represents a risk of $154 loss per contract, while the potential reward of 271 ticks equates to $271 worth of gains per contract.
Risk Management Considerations
Risk management is a critical aspect of any trading strategy, especially in futures trading. While the 3 standard deviation Bollinger Band® setup provides a compelling case for mean reversion, it's essential to manage risk carefully to avoid significant losses.
Stop-Loss Orders: A well-placed stop-loss is crucial to protect against unexpected market moves. In this case, placing the stop above the resistance zone (around 4.175) ensures that risk is controlled if the market continues to rally instead of reversing.
Position Sizing: Given the volatility of futures contracts, it is important to adjust position sizes according to the trader’s risk tolerance and available margin. Overleveraging can lead to large losses if the market moves against the trade.
Moving Averages Can Shift: It’s important to remember that the moving average (the mean) can change as new data comes in. While the target is currently around 3.744, this level may adjust over time, so traders need to monitor the mean as the trade progresses (which is why we have set the target to initially be slightly higher at 3.750).
Resistances as Reinforcements: The resistance zone between 4.174 and 4.021 can act as reinforcements to the mean reversion. Traders should observe price behavior at these levels to confirm rejection signals before entering the trade.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures contract presents a unique trading opportunity as it has reached the rare 3 standard deviation Bollinger Band® on the daily time frame. This extreme price level indicates potential overbought conditions, making it a candidate for mean reversion back to the mean at approximately 3.750.
The trade setup involves shorting within the resistance range, with a well-defined stop and target, and offers a favorable reward-to-risk ratio. However, as always, caution is advised, and traders should manage risk effectively using stop-loss orders and appropriate position sizing.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
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US 10Year - 02Year - Yield Inversion (Posted 01FEB23)In this chart you can see how inverted we are and for how long on the 10-2year. I also have the 10-03mo chart that I will link to this also. This is a recession indicator. It will be interesting to follow this chart as the FOMC tries to bring the curve back under control. I will return frequently to run the "Play" and see how they do over the months!
US 10Year - US03MO - Yield Inversion (Posted 01FEB23)In this chart you can see how inverted we are and for how long on the 10-3mo. I also have the 10-2YR chart that I will link to this also. This is a recession indicator. It will be interesting to follow this chart as the FOMC tries to bring the curve back under control. I will return frequently to run the "Play" and see how they do over the months!
TLT: As of now, 92.30 (GREEN) is giving the bulls an edgeIt's not been a year to bottom pick TLT. In fact, it's rarely a good idea to bottom pick. However, when a durable S/R Level holds and ideally is re-tested, it creates a situation where buying a low makes sense. And with ones stops very clear, i.e. below 92.30 (GREEN), it's an asymmetric pay-off.
A similar level is seen in 10-Year Notes.
Forecast US10YGood day everyone! Don't forget to put your thumbs up and write your comment if you like the idea
The bar for 10-year Treasuries has been broken.
The 10-year Treasury yield has broken the trend at 3.8%. In fact, this opens the way for growth to indicators in the range of 4.5-4.6%.
There are elections in November, and we need to show at least some effect from measures to combat inflation. This is the main task. Well, what's next? Let's assume that we managed to somehow stabilize the situation with inflation (actually or by manipulating statistics is another question) by achieving a target rate of around 4.5%. Let the economy go into recession. And, after some time, start the cycle of lowering the rate again and pulling the economy out of recession? The current rates were in 2008, and the values were 4.5% in 2007. And the Fed had enough of this "reserve" in reducing the rate for almost 14 years.
DISCLAIMER:
The opinion of the author may not coincide with yours! Keep this in mind and consider in your trading transactions before making a trading decision.
Roy's picks for April 25, 2022My selection of stocks based on 44 rising SMA , weekly bottom fishing method, and all time high methods. My strategy is to hold for approx 10 days and take 5-10 return. These are experimental only and I have no guarantee that this is going to gain a profit. My own probability instinct is 50:50
10 YEAR YIELD GOING HIGHER MOST LIKELYIn the current high inflation environment we are in and with the Rus-Ukr war pushing energy and other commodity prices higher and higher, we can all agree yields on bonds have every right to move way higher then we have been seeing the past few years.
The peak of the 'Tamper-Tantrums' back in November 2018 (Seen with black arrow) we can see the 10 year yield was higher than current levels. This was also when the fed wasn't that eager to release a 9 trillion dollar balance sheet back to market and when inflation levels were no where near what we are seeing (and feeling...) today.
I do think we could be seeing the 10Y yield trying those levels (hit a little over 3% during those times) in the upcoming weeks. I do think the market will be ahead of the Fed, and push it to move higher faster. We may even break the 3% level.. especially if there is a hyper-inflation panic.
Faster Bond movements could drag the market down (especially high flyers, tech stocks, etc) as e have seen in the recent past.
We had a 2y/10y inversion last week which could be a leading recession indicator. In any case, be sure it's the Bond markets that will be setting the tone.
Trade with caution :)
ZB1! (10 Year T-bonds ) , H4 Bullish continuation Type: Bullish continuation
Resistance: 163'18
Support: 157'24
Pivot: 159'16
Preferred case: With price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise from our pivot of 127'25 in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement to our 1st resistance of 129'00 which is also the graphical swing high resistance.
Alternative Scenario : Price may dip to the support level of 127'00 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection level.
Fundamentals: With the uncertainty of the RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict and the implications on the US economy due to increase increase sanctions. Bond prices will continue to increase as increase frequency of rate hikes seems more unlikely. As fundamentals and technicals align, ZB1! might be a good opportunity to look into.
Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Paralell Channel, RSI & Volume from 2011This is a detailed analysis of the Logarithmic Bitcoin USD Price Chart. Pi Cycle Top, as taught to me by Joel Bishop, a bonifide badeass who knows his bitcoin cycles. He has published content and must give him the credit for teaching me about this indicator or indicator function on trading view. Hope this helps anyone wrap their heads around where price is headed based on the logarithmic scale.
Staying in the parallel channel, price could reach as little as 20k or even 15k, but would present an amazing buying opportunity imho.
This cannot be construed as financial advice, only my prediction of where I believe price will be at by the beginning of 2024. Thanks and enjoy!
USDJPY Top Formation As 10 Year US Notes Are Trying To Recovery10 year US notes coming out of a channel, possibly starting to make a higher degree correction which can limit the upside for USDJPY. Nice resistance on USDJPY is at 114 where A-B-C rally can come to an end, at the former wave four, and somewhere around 50-61.8% Fib retracement levels.
Gold Futures ready to popKeeping an eye on the relationship between the Gold Futures and the US 10 Year Yields.
Currently, the yields are coming off their highs, but the Gold hasn't reacted yet. If we get a breakdown in the US dollar, that will be the catalyst I am sure and currently, the US dollar index is finding resistance from old support.
Jobs data was good today, but there is a chance that NFP doesn't meet expectations as there are some lofty numbers being pushed around.
This looks like a retest of the 1.32-1.5 bottom range we saw This looks like a
retest of the
1.32-1.5 bottom
range we saw from
2012-2016
usual we test a old low as a new high.
I am not saying we cant go higher we can but we could also go sideways for years
but
I hope we head back down to new lowers lows, why would i hope for such a bad thing?
I have my reasons.
Not financial advice.
This is my personal trading journal.
I'm lucky if I get 3 likes.
Is US10Y Yield going up?Hi there, as I draw, in my idea the US10Y Yield will rise till the level 1,68, I put the stop as a red line, as you see many levels form that triangle that ends to the resistance of February 2020.
I drawed green lines to support the rising, as you see the week ends, using that line as support, maybe because is slowing down from the 1,5% peak, but well it didn't go far away from that layer.
Using the bottom from March there is a projection that i draw with the blue dashed line, but in my opinion is weaker than "the yellow pattern".
I tried to figure out a trend myself
Let me know your opinion about.
Thank you :)
10 year bond - OverboughtRSI overbought
and I think 10 year bond is in a cup and handle formation.
I see a crash or big correction in 6-10 months in the stock market.
Conclusion is that short on bond and still bullish in the stock market and I think we will push back to higher level in short time in stock market.