100k
Naked Bitcoin through AprilStrictly price action indicators.
Bitcoin is in the midst of a full on bull cycle.
Don't short BTC.
Expect a more than likely touch of the 21 EMA, and a possible touch of the 50 EMA.
Don't expect anything below $42k unless you are expecting a big correction. I don't think it needs one here.
The most bullish outlook has Bitcoin retesting that upper trend line at the 2.618 extension by early march, which would be a doubling in price in just around 3 weeks which is hard for even myself to imagine.
I am looking for almost 100k by end of April.
Can the previous resistance become the new support?Resistance has clearly been broken. After the weekly rally a pullback is normal, so the real question is whether this resistance can become support and if we can accumulate enough power to continue reaching towards the new all time highs. In my opinion, yes - people that got burned in the previous rally towards 42k and entered too late will have their chance at breaking it again and people that cashed out and re-entered after the pullback will do the same while the rest who held will keep on holding. Everyone; let's continue towards the 100k!
EURGBP - SHORT DAILY Hello Traders,
we noticed a very clear Head and Shoulder of inversion on the EURGBP.
Trading volumes slightly decreasing also confirm the bullish exhaustion and the bearish scenario becoming more likely. The 0.886 level, which is the neckline of the H&S is now being broken. We would wait a more wide movement to the downside to reduce at minimum the risk of false breakout with the price jumping back above the neckline.
As usual, two different targets are provided. One more conservative, corresponding to the previous lows, and the more aggressive one, whose Take Profit corresponds to the target of the H&S formation as per textbooks.
What do you think of this idea? What are the tool you use to confirm or reject an Head and Shoulder Pattern? Let us know!
GBPCHF - LONG TRADE ON DAILYThis chart shows another shorting opportunity for the Swiss Franc, with respect to the British Pound.
It is a longer trade than the previous one as the timeframe is daily. There are also two different targets and strategies that can be applied, depending on how much time you can wait for the realization of the scenario.
We see a very nice confluence of indicators and lines at the same level. When this happens, the overall idea gets strenghtened.
Indeed, at 1.22 we have the convergence of three signals. Firstly, it is the upper part of the ascending triangle and the point of control of the last downward leg. It is also the last level of the retracement area. It means that a price above it would mean that the bounce up from the minimum of 1.11 is most likely no longer to be considered as a retrace, but rather as a true impulsive up wave.
1.22 coincides with the Point of Control, the level at which most of the trades volumes were concentrated in the last period, and at which the battle between longs and shorts will be fought. Whoever wins, will pave the way and indicate the direction of the following move. This level has been tested many times and every time is gets weaker. In case of a breakout, the movement can be violent, therefore we would prefer to enter immediately and not wait for an eventual retest, that can be used to increase the position subsequently.
Targets and Risk Rewards metrics can be found on the chart.
What do you think of this idea? Let us know in the comments!
NZDCHF LONG - SHORT TERM IDEAHello Traders,
we signal a nice Head & Shoulder of continuation of the trend up for NZDCHF. The target for the pattern is 0.65.
An aggressive entry would consist in entering now, at the retest of the horizontal line which correspond to the previous top.
A more conservative approach would be to wait for the retest of the neckline of the Head & Shoulder. This would increase the odds for the realization of the pattern but also the risk to be left out of the trade, since retests do not happen every time.
The total size destined for the trade can also be split 50/50.
Which kind of trader are you?
Are you an aggressive trader who enters on breakouts or a more conservative one, waiting for retests and confirmations?
Let us know in the comments!
Using WEEKLY EMA 20 to find the BOTTOMHistorically the weekly EMA 20 has proven itself to be a good place to buy bitcoin in bullruns. Will the WEEKLY EMA 20 serve us again in revealing the bottom?
Find out in the next episode of Bitcoin to the moon.
(Note: W EMA 20 will be around a price point of 20-25k)
GOLD - WEEKLY UPDATEHello Traders and welcome to the first idea of 2021. As usual, the first days and weeks of the year are poor of big movements. However, we noticed this nice signal from XAU.
The trend is bearish and the price fell below the 200 Moving Average daily once again (1841). We also are below the lowest retracement level of the last leg up (1838), which seems just as a reaction to the reach of 1764, a key multiyear level. This means that this is not a simple retracement, but Gold is likely to go further down. Also, this time the price had almost no reaction to the touch of the 200MA. The RSI has still room to fall.
Our idea consists in a short position with:
- Target 1764 and
- Stop Loss just above the top of the last candles
The Risk Reward ratio is 2.
The Dollar experienced a steady decline over the last months but at the moment is bouncing in the short term as can be seen from the Dollar Index. As we know, a strengthening of the USD causes commodity prices to fall, all else being equal.
FTMO wishes you a happy 2021, full of success in trading!
BEE TEE CEN TO ONE HUNDRED KAY: PART 2check out da excerpt straight from TV news feed:
Troops rescued trapped drivers from their vehicles on Saturday as heavy snowfall from Storm Filomena caused travel chaos across Spain and Madrid airport remained closed. "Owing to the forecast of snow and for security, Madrid Barajas airport will remain closed throughout Saturday," Aena BME:AENA , which controls the country's airports, said in a tweet.The airport was closed on Friday night after the rare blizzard made flying impossible. At least 50 flights to Madrid, Malaga, Tenerife and Ceuta…
you know what that means BE TEE CEN GO TO 100k buddy boyo
USDJPY - SIGNALS OF A CONTINUATION OF THE TRENDHello Traders, USDJPY seems to continue its downtrend.
At the moment the price is below the psychological level of 104 and, most importantly, below the POC (point of control) which shows where the "battle" between buyers and sellers has been played with respect to the last movement. Battle that was
A very important signal is also given by the fact that none of the last candles closed within the retracement area, despite being temporarily in it. The 9th December's candle is also a pretty bearish candle, with a big shadow above its body.
The RSI has also plenty of room to fall and it already reached its highs for this particular period in time.
Target 1 (identified with the 1.27 Fibonacci extension) - 103.09
Target 2 - 102.41
Stop Loss - above the poc2 and the first level of the retracement area
Risk Reward ratio 2.11
The downward scenario is strengthened if we consider the previous downward legs, with its related POC perfectly rejecting the price every single time.
In this case, the targets are on the charts, but the Stop Loss should be put above the descending trendline (and the related poc2)
Risk Reward ratio 3
EURCZKHello Traders, one of the few currency pairs not ranging within a channel at the moment is EURCZK.
We are currently below a dynamic trendline holding since February, in a steep bearish movement for EUR since the upper resistance was hit at the end of October. The retest already took place, and we think the two targets for the following days/weeks are 26.00 (a more conservative one), corresponding to the lower part of the Fibonacci retracement, and the more aggressive one at 25.56 , respectively.
Bitcoin, historical and fundamentalGood morning guys
Bitcoin took back the crown and sat on the throne.
I would like to talk a little about the set of events that have been unleashed in recent months.
In previous reviews I discussed at length what halving is and what it brings with it, we talked about the pre halving setbacks that always happen in bitcoin based on fundamentals, in addition to historical PA.
Without a doubt, the market has been different since 2017. The P.A is directly manipulated by the settlements of the different platforms that offer leverage.
In my extensive analysis of halving (published in November 2019) I defined halving as a key point to start the bull markets in bitcoin. Composed of cycles that lead the market to excel.
Historical Bitcoin behavoir during the pre and post halving. From 2011 to 2021.
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Pre-halving retrace #1
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Pre-halving retrace #2
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Based on the price history, always after having an ATH we get a pre-halving high (Currently $ 13,175) which has been a historical bear trap. Reviewing the behavior of bitcoin since 2011.
Following the pre-halving high we obtain quite significant retracements in the price, called pre-halving retracements. Ours happened on March 16, 2020, leading us to 3,600 in a sharp fall. Followed by our beloved halving that happened in the mid-8500s just over 30 days later.
After that, as we explained in our analysis of the halving in 2019. On June 1 we had our first strong bullish impulse, and after the retrace we came in a strong uptrend worth noting.
Aiming for a new ATH and completion of the current bitcoin cycle November 2021.
We are currently resting on the support of 11600 (where there was a CME GAP that was missing to fill in, it is worth noting) In the 4-hour chart we have hidden bullish divergences, in addition to the EMA20 supporting us and a few bullish indicators. But at this point I think the most important thing to study is the volume, the technical indicators are not very helpful in these P.A. However I think we can get more out of bullish positions.
Swimming into the highlighted channel to create a bit of consolidation doesn't seem like a crazy idea to me. Going down a little to 11450. However it will not happen if we manage to hold the price at the current point of 11600, this would lead us to 12300 and 13000.
From the bearish side 11400 and 10400 look good as targets, just in case we don't hold up.
Pay attention to this moment, we could get a winning position, holding or dropping the current point (If we are looking for a short term trade)
BTCUSD: Logirthmic Curve & Network Growth : $100K in 2021?Logirthmic Growth Curve and Bitcoin Network Hash Rate perspective; long-term bullish and very much on track.
Previous cycle extrapolation points to new ATH in March/June 2021, followed by $100K by December 2021.
Ie 6-9 months to new ATH, 12 months to $50K and 18 months until new top around $100K.
Flags & golden bars represent halvings. Buy signals indicate network is continuing to grow.
Buy the growth, long the net
Hash Ribbons Buy Signals 2016-2020 Extrapolation