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Lower inflation do not mean things will become cheaperLower inflation and interest rates do not necessarily mean that prices will decrease. If I annualize the inflation numbers instead of focusing on the monthly figures, the overall picture becomes much clearer. 2 and 10 Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY, 10Y Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
ECONOMICS:USIRYYLong
by konhow
7
Inverted Yield of 2022 Explained - Till TodayFor our housing loan, many of us, if you are in your 30s today and all the way to 70 years of age, will likely have chosen floating or short-term loan rates rather than longer-term loan rates. However, everything changed in 2022. Now, we are more likely to choose longer-term loan rates over floating rates. Why? Because today, longer-term loan rates are lower than floating rates. This phenomenon is called an inverted yield curve. In the 70s and 80s, there was also a period of inverted yields, and different markets moved accordingly as expected. Today, we are seeing an inverted yield once again, and the same markets are moving in a manner similar to those in the 70s and 80s. We will do a comparison between the 70s and today’s inverted yield. Please let me know what opportunities you see after this tutorial. 2 Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 10 Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:2YY1!Long
by konhow
2
Interest Rate Cuts 3 Times This Year May Not Happen - Here's WhyMany interpreted from the latest FOMC meeting that the Fed is going to have three rate cuts this year, but Jerome Powell did not say that. Let me quote directly from his transcript: “If the economy evolves as projected, the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.6 percent at the end of this year” And he added: “These projections are not a committee decision or plan” In today’s tutorial we will discover why so many of us got it wrong in what he is trying to tell us. And who are these participants? 10-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
FRED:FEDFUNDSLong
by konhow
2
Why Central Banks Buying Gold & Institutions Hedging the Yields?While many of us celebrate the stock markets reaching new highs, central banks worldwide are actively purchasing gold, and institutions are hedging into treasuries and yields. Interest rates are determined by the central banks whereas Yields are determined by the investors. If you choose to lend or borrow money over a longer period, such as 10 or 30 years, you would typically expect to earn or pay more interest for this extended duration loan contract. However, currently, we are witnessing an inversion of this relationship, known as the inverted yield curve, where borrowers are required to pay higher interest on their short-term loans, such as the 2-year yield we're observing, compared to their longer-term borrowing. 2 Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
Editors' picks
CBOT_MINI:2YY1!Education
by konhow
25
Bond Broadening - in 3DVolatility is the name of the game as the major indexes were in a big range all week. The Nasdaq is testing it's 2 hour UBB with a Bull Flag under resistance. The Russell 2000 also has a Bull Flag after finding 2hr LBB support, setting up a potential Lower High under the 2h 50 SMA. The Bonds gave back the bull break during the FOMC meeting and are now showing a choppy head and shoulders, on the 30 minute, which does not have the nice rolling shoulders. The weekly iH&S neckline remains a point of control.
TVC:US10Y
by Pennywick
10Y could be the little catalyst that mkts are looking for !!SPX Yields Vs 10Y will let the big dogs shift from stocks to the 10Y for better retunes and much safer/secure investments. Little guys need to watch carefully for this shift if it's even a probable scenario. But when we have such high spikes like today volatility will increase in the mkt and we could see a big final drop in our Y wave of WXY or even further down in a triple zig zag WXYXXZ. Moreover we will meet our H&H + Down channel's targets as well to say the leas. - Stay safe & enjoy your weekend guys.
TVC:US10Y
by samitrading
2
Was This Week a Giant Head Fake?The Nasdaq is puking on Friday by as much as 2%, as yields spiked back toward the recent high's. The 10Y yield traded as high as 1.616% after pairing some gains, while the 30Y yield broke out to new high's at 2.38%. Are the CTA's jumping back into short already after this week's muted long end auctions? I was wondering what investors were thinking, piling back into risk as rates hovered near their recent high's. Nothing suggested to me that the rise in yields was over, so was it all just a gigantic head fake? We'll find out very soon... The dollar is catching a bid as well, and is approaching a 92 handle. We have strong support around the neckline (90.75), with 92.50 acting as fortified resistance. It would take a notable shift in sentiment for the dollar to break the recent high, and make it's way back toward the 94 level. With the Put/Call finally showing signs of life, something is clearly brewing under the surface. We saw PPI and Core PPI come in in-line with expectations this morning. PPI rose by 0.5%, and Core PPI rose by 0.2%. Don't tell that to the BLS, though, their data tells a very different, (fake) story. In metals, we're seeing some weakness this morning, particularly in Silver and gold, as they've been the recipients of strong flows this week. In crypto, after testing the recent high, Bitcoin fell back to a 55k handle. We're seeing a potential double top emerge here, with a world of downside below us. The 21 day EMA is sitting around 51k, and the 50 day MA is sitting at 45k. Ether didn't quite make it to the ATH, but is also rolling over on Friday, and is back at 1740. On SPY, the bears will be planning a retest of the lower band of the green channel as soon as the opening bell, with downside to the top of the wedge around 388, and then the 21 day EMA around 386. If we see buy the dippers out today, we'll get a strong bounce off the green channel, and potentially a retest of the ATH once again. On the Nasdaq (QQQ), we're poised to open below the upper band of the wedge around 313, potentially leading to further downside toward the neckline at 311, and then the September high around 301. On the Russell (IWM), we're poised to open flat, with high beta persistently catching retail flows, and the rotation out of big tech. We may be looking at a double top. In Volatility, the vix caught a strong bid overnight and retested a 23 handle. We're looking at the post march crash range at the moment, which has served as a solid accumulation zone for hedgers. Keep an eye on Vix at the open, as we could be in for a rapid profit taking session/risk off reaction to the pre-market price action. Thanks for your time today guys and I hope you enjoyed the analysis! Stay tuned as our live analysis begins at 9:30AM. Cheers, Michael. *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
TVC:US10YLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
16
Anyone Else Feeling Car Sick?US markets are treading water on Monday morning, ahead of the US cash open, but the Nasdaq is seeing some pressure amid another surge in the 10Y yield back toward the 1.61% level. The Biden Administration has successfully won the Senate vote on the $1.9T stimulus package, which should now see the bill go back to the house for final senate approved changes, and then to Biden's desk for signature. Typically, this would be a sell the news event, particularly because this is such an important time for household spending/debt levels. The issue I see now, is when this money is rapidy spent (if it hasn't been already), and then what happens? Let's see how long it takes before we see more talks of another stimulus package, which if even suggested, could see the dollar tank, and crypto fortified as the only logical path forward. Oil rallied hard on a drone attack on Aramco (again), which saw Brent rise as high as a 71 handle, before pairing some gains. Remember last time all the investment banks went bullish on oil, and then Aramco facilities saw a "rocket" attack? Interesting timing, and how these things just happen to work out for the investments banks everytime. Just another conspiracy in this new world order of secrecy and lies. We'll be looking forward to key (long end) treasury auctions this week, which should be very telling considering the long end is tanking. Either the (anticipated) increase of supply with all the new fiscal debt, or the shrinking demand as rates rise, has the bond market on thin ice. With the 10Y continuing to put pressure on growth, we could be in for one hell of a week. We're seeing a clear rotation out of growth and into value, which should continue for sometime, sending the broader indexes lower in the interim. China's CSI was down by as much as 3.5% this morning, which officially puts the CSI in correction territory. As we noted last week, the Nasdaq fell by as much as 10% as well from the ATH, putting it in correction territory also. With european markets mixed, and analysts across Wall Street expecting everything from a global market crash, to an immediate term rebound, it seems everyone has the same question on their mind, "when the fuck is this market finally going to see an actual correction?" Vix is up around 5% on the day and sitting at a 26 handle, after being hammered on Friday by as much as 14%. We're seeing some pressure as I'm typing, because we're being panic bid into the open (as usual). The irrational exuberance is apparently back after the perceived value from last week's light selling. The bulls are infinitely deep pocketed it seems, and exclusively like converting cash into assets. I wonder what will happen when things actually correct, and if they'll remember how to sell those assets. Hopefully there will be someone there to buy them when the time comes. Maybe we'll find out as early as this week... *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
TVC:US10YLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
12