US Government Bonds 10 YR YieldHello everyone,
A quick look at the rate at 10 US.
Republican effect with its program?
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
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10year
TLT (Debt Supply) Goes Up With Federal Borrowing (Debt Demand)Here's your edge: the TLT blasts off when Government borrowing blasts off, a simple case of supply and demand.
The Federal Government borrowed 2.2 Trillion USD in the last 12 months, data that has been added to Bloomberg Terminals but not here on Tradingview or on FRED. I bring you a piece of the cake, friends.
SOURCE: x.com
The future of Interest RatesRough map pf rate expectation without pretension of accuracy for dates nor timing...
Are Interest Rates going Higher?What would cause rates to move higher?
Inflation 2.0?
According to this long term yield chart were about to experience a paradigm shift in rates.
If this Monthly Golden cross occurs we should see a bull market in rates continue into the future.
This would not be a good sing for risk equites. The last time we got the opposite signal" Death cross" we saw a 30 year bond bull market/ 30 year bear yield market.
Maybe the traditional 60 equity/40 bond gets toppled. Maybe we move to a 40 equity/60 bond portfolio.
If This rotation was to occur, the stock market would likely see a significant loss.
Yield Curve Bottom (10s minus 2s) This is called the "Steepener" trade and refers to a mean reversion in the yield curve. From current level of (-38 basis points, or -0.38%), I'm targeting a move back to 1.00%, or ~70bp, risking down to about (-45bp), or about (-13bp) downside.
Yield curve steepeners seek to gain from a greater spread between short- and long-term yields-to-maturity by combining a “long” short-dated bond position with a “short” long-dated bond position, while a flattener involves sale of short-term bonds and purchase of long-term bonds.
- CFA Institute
Bitcoin Has Absorbed $26,500 but What's This?Traders,
In my last post I stated that BTC must absorb the price of 26,500 for the bulls to come back out and play again. It did. Now, we are running into the 50 day moving avg. which is acting as resistance and should give those of us seeking re-entry into longs a bit of time to make those entry decisions.
However, I spotted something sus on the U.S. treasuries chart and it seems that nobody is really talking about this. Both the 10yr and the 2yr experienced a massive spike! What caused this? TBH, it is causing me some hesitation. Could this be pre-indicative of a credit event of some sort? Thoughts, links, data are appreciated in the comments below.
Stew
Knock Knock Who is there? it is me, US10Y 4.2%Knock knock.
Who's there?
I. O.
I. O. who?
Me.
When are you paying Treasury holders back?
Never!
Bullish Breakout ...to be continued...
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
Will the backup hold?The 10 year T is fighting the line. A bounce and break of current downtrend could mean more pain. But a break of the secondary support would demolish the bears as it would signal my long-expected blow-off top in the U.S. stock market. Stay tuned.
US10Y - 10Y Bonds: And Reverse Forest RuuunLet's see:
This was the chart I posted this year:
We reached the U-MLH.
This is the stretch to the upside. How ever, it could go further towards the Moon.
But usually, if price get rejected at the MLH's, we see the opposite move. In this case to the downside, to the Centerline.
This is a great opportunity, the second time this year in the 10Y Bonds, which I clearly will not miss.
Additionally this would indicate a bounce in the index markets (S&P500, Nasdaq etc.).And if you pay attention to my S&P Chart, then you know that the Centerline is reached too there.
So prepare for a possible bounce, even it's just temporarily.
10-Year Treasury Yield Faces Head & Shoulders, Lookout Below?The 10-Year Treasury yield has been consolidating since April as traders grappled with inflation and recession woes.
Now, a bearish Head & Shoulders chart formation is prevailing. At the time of publishing, prices finished forming the right shoulder and were trading at the neckline, which seems to be around 2.70.
This is as the 100-day Simple Moving Average is holding up as support. It could still maintain the dominant uptrend.
Otherwise, confirming a breakout under the neckline and the moving average may open the door to a broader reversal.
Key levels to watch to the downside include the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements at 2.36 and 2.05 respectively. Beyond the latter sits the March low at 1.66.
Overturning the Head & Shoulders entails a push above the right shoulder, which is just below 3.15.
TVC:US10Y
No recession :( - Sorry Bears, just a equity deleveraging event.Lots of gloom and doom in the market these days because there is no vertical up and easy money is made. Use this opportunity to risk manage, buy quality on weakness as I did a month ago.
TNX ZN TKT ZB - 10Year / 20Year / 30YearSh_t Mixed remain Bonds... every flight to Safety has been utterly and systematically
crushed.
It will be again and again as our Bond Market losses its Pillars of which there are 4.
One by one these are failing.
Longer-term, the lose/lose proposition will compound.
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Short term, we'll see how YCC and an overall Market Panic can trend Yields.
The Fed has permitted the Bond Market to generate the necessary adjustments.
Strenght - historically has been in control of only the short end.
Operation twist is no longer relevant, the FED can simply clip coupons and trend into
expiration of Holdings while reinvesting across the entire Curve.
Sadly, engaging in Yield Curve Control (YCC) crossed the Rubicon.
My thesis has been proven entirely correct - instability by design.
The #1 Chart to WatchLadies and Gentlemen, please take your seats.
(...the music stops)
Okay, thanks for playing. Good luck to all of you!
The investment strategies that have worked for the last 40 years will no longer work. The true bear market is here. This will absolutely 100% NOT be a recession that will be forgotten easily.
It most likely will be a depression via stagflation which we have never really experienced long-term.
Our leaders won't admit it but *News Flash* the Supply Chains are NOT getting fixed like they were before. China has no incentive or interest to fix them and we are the world's biggest debtor. We got 20% of all our imports from them in 2021. That doesn't sound like a lot but that 20% is involved in the supply chains of 70-80% of our goods. The Chinese gov has already warned its people of the incoming food shortage and have been far more honest with their people than our Western leaders have been.
Good luck in the New World Order!
Courtesy of the World Gov. Summit 2022, the IMF, World Bank, etc.
(Not Financial Advice, Just what I see.)
10-Year Treasury Yield Pushes to Fresh 2022 High, Now What?The 10-year Treasury yield soared to a new high over the past 24 hours, confirming the breakout above peaks from June - July 2019.
Yields are now testing the former 2.34 - 2.43 support zone.
Extending gains above the former exposes 2.61 before the 2019 high at 2.79 comes into play. These may offer the next critical levels of resistance as hawkish US monetary policy expectations rise.
A bullish Golden Cross between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages remain in play. Keep a close eye on these as key support in the event of a turn lower.
TVC:US10Y
10Y Breakeven v BTCThese 2 charts have been following eachother since Aug 2020 - this chart is the answer to the question: is bitcoin an inflation haven?
Right now yes it is, and even at these price levels - obv too early too tell but this is encouraging sign
10-Year Treasury Yield All Set for Summer 2019 Highs?Following another strong US CPI report, the 10-year Treasury yield surged above 2%, further pushing above peaks from late 2019 (1.9073 - 1.9718).
That has exposed peaks from summer 2019 as key resistance (2.1779 - 2.1431).
A bullish Golden Cross remains in play between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages.
Keep a close eye on RSI, negative divergence shows fading upside momentum. A turn lower may see the SMAs act as support, maintaining the dominant upside focus.
TVC:US10Y
THE 40 YEAR BEAR MARKET IN 10 YEAR TREASURY NOTE INTEREST RATEThe attached chart shows 40 years of declining 10 year rates. As we all know, that rate is the basis for mortgage rates and just about everything else. During that half cycle the housing market boomed, the stock market boomed and generally speaking, corporations and individuals prospered.
But that trend has ended.
Thursday I would have said that rates would either remain low for an indefinite period while inflation soared or rates would be raised to quell inflation. But Friday Central Banks around the world announced tightening.
The party is over!
It is time to batten down the hatches, lock in long term profits on stocks, rentals and any other investments that correlate inversely with interest rates.
Obviously the major players saw this coming and started bailing at the first of2022.
Now us little fish must do what we can to avoid losing the wealth we have.
As an aside, it was announced last year that Bill Gates was diversifying into farm land. Obviously that anticipates food shortages and inflation.............
I will post more on this once the picture becomes clearer.
midnitepoet
10 Year - ih&s Confirmed - Break Target RulerWatching for a back-test of the neckline. NQ1! with support below at the 2 hour MBB.
Bond Yields Downtrend in 3DAfter finding support and a fourth Lower Low under 1.35, bond yields have had a mini bounce to produce a Bear Flag. A lower interest rate environment persists, will the volatility in bonds become a staple of the new markets?
Bonds - 10Y note - in 3D InvertedSometimes it helps to invert the charts, particularly in bonds where price is inverse to yields, to see what the pattern looks like in the mirror. Bull plays in Big Tech would benefit from a bounce of this monthly neckline. As long as yields increase, and the Vix is elevated, the Santa rally is waiting for the sleigh to get out of the garage for repairs.
10 Year Note Defended Monthly iH&S NecklineNeed to move this chart to the top of the heap each day to keep the profile in mind for 2022. With BTC finding Institutional Support through Futures, ETFs, and Options the interplay between Big Tech, Inflationary pressures, the Bonds, and Crypto looks like a place to spend some time. For now, the cheap money looks to add fuel to the Rally. The PPI was in good shape with an inline reading today. CPI next.
10 Year yield directionIf the 10 Year doesn't hold this technical support then expect it to go a lot lower.
Similar bull flag visible on 10 year. Same but different.Here is almost the exact same trade from a signals and trigger standpoint.
It's basically the same formation, but in a different market.
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What is different about this one than from gold? Quite a lot actually. It's better to go through that kind of stuff on one's own, but what I would really want people to notice is this bond trade looks like it broke out of an area of consolidation, and is now using the flag to dip into a retest of a broken resistance area. Do not blow any fuses adding confluences to your trading, but if you can find places where it looks like all the bull tribes are uniting then you can find high probability areas where price will move higher from in the future.
