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10year

10-YR. Using Fib's as sell zone.If you're late to the party, like I am, 10-year has been getting ridden way down in '21. I see the 'M' reversal double bottom. There are some subtle signs of bullishness, including flattening 200 MA. It's been a steep downhill run, and I would expect the momentum will continue with another spike low. but. every trend comes to an end. I would much rather be the one pushing the boulder than catching it, so I'm looking to sell in the upper Fibonacci area. Seeing as sellers have been letting price get pretty high before displaying control recently, This keeps me less interested in the .5 level. Also, my risk manager can't tolerate using the .5. Too much volatility. ---- Anybody else's crystal ball come out differently?
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by emehoke
2
10Y Yield Under Pressure From Strong Auction DemandThe risk free rate took a breather yesterday, and then again today, as (yesterday) the 10Y auction was a smash success, followed by a near record 30Y auction today. We saw $38 Billion in demand in the 10Y auction, driving yields lower, toward the 1.11% level. Then after the 30Y auction today, the 10Y yield was hammered back to 1.08%. Members of the FED made their rounds in the MSM, convincing market participants that the FED had no intention of tapering asset purchases, nor did they see the need to hike rates in the near term. Let's see how things progress as the YCC (yield curve control) conversation becomes the focus on trading desks everywhere. When will the FED institutionalize YCC? Could be as early as the next meeting on Jan 26th. But, I highly doubt they'll admit, yet again, to the world, that everything they've done, hasn't worked. Then again, I've been wrong before. who knew you could just simply change every rule in the book. I digress. Thanks for your time today guys! If you enjoyed the analysis, please like and subscribe our profile, and also visit us at the Hedge of the World website (link in profile), where we do, in-depth, live daily analysis of markets.
TVC:US10YLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
7
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TVC:US10YLong
by Ridethemacro
2
T-note scenarios for 27/05We moved away from previous 2-day balance (medium yellow box) at overnight and bounced back and forth previous demand zone at cash session, so it lost it's strenght. Removed it from the chart then included longer time frame value low in purple at 138'26. We can see that market has been rejecting value higher so far (tails and bottoming shown by red arrows) but as long as we stay between purple line and last big supply at 139'08 there's no definition of higher TF trend. Possible moves for next days are drawn in red and green. Scenario 1: We could play between these zones, for sure, as seen in blue line. it's a big range for day trading. There's a low volume area at the cumulative volume profile (right) just above previous day value area (smaller yellow box). If overnight keeps balancing a little higher than that and we get a extension lower at cash open, could be a risky long for continuation at 138'30'5/31. Target at 139'07/08. Scenario 2: 139'08 could be a short play if it gets the same bounce from overnight first. However I'm shifting to long if it breaks since it's LIS for initiative move lower Scenario 3: Market returns to previous day's value. Won't do anything. However, since market kept building volume towards purple line, this became my LIS for shifting from neutral to short. Will wait for it to break then sell pullbacks, target at 138'16, supply zone near bottom of macro value from couple months now. I got shaken out ZB as you can see from my other idea but I'm still long at 27'5 in ZN so I'm hoping we get at least scenario 1 or 2 so I can get out hahaha
CBOT:ZN1!
by caiobortoli