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10yearnote

Did the bond market fail?Over the last few months the 10yr bond market has been developing a long term inverted head and shoulder pattern. This was suggesting a test of the 200dma may be coming up soon and yields would continue to come down. However, today we saw a massive bearish engulfing and a move that almost wiped out last week’s entire move higher. This aggressive move lower in the notes, also dropped back below the inverted head and shoulder pattern neckline after a rejection of the 50% retracement. This false upside breakout could leave bulls holding the bag. The risk (now) is that bonds continue to slide back to the 50dma and yields continue to rally. This could affect the USDJPY as that pair has been very sensitive to the move in 10yr yields.
CBOT:ZN1!
by ForexAnalytix
10 Year Note Yield / 10 Year NoteIt's been 234 Years since the 10-Year Bond Note deteriorated to this extent. The United States Treasury's formation was a Year away - 1789. 9 States had ratified the US Constitution. In order to pay for expenditures during the Revolution, Congress had only two options: print more money or obtain loans to fund the budget deficit. Congress became far more dependent on the printing of money, which led to hyperinflation. Congress lacked the authority to levy taxes - doing so would have risked alienating an American public that had gone to war with the British over the issue of taxation without representation for the Crown. ________________________________________________________________ The first 6 Months of 2022 have been a disaster for Bonds. Unfortunately, it is simply just beginning. At present, the "Disinflation Wave" is in the trade as the Media / Wall Street ups the narrative and continues to bang the Commodity Rollover as evidence. Typically (although we do not use History as a Guide as this is the largest Bear Market in History, it is unprecedented as we have noted for months) we see an 8 to 13 Month mismatch cycle for "Dis-Inflation". Although Demand Destruction is being accelerated in Capital Stock losses, people eat, drink, drive... consume material things required for their very existence. _________________________________________________________________ The most recent 4-week, 8-week, 13-week, 2year, 5-year, and 7-year auctions were a significant failure at a time when the FED reportedly reduced their balance sheet by $21B after a retracement for several weeks off the May 25th outsized and front-run dump of $51B. Meanwhile, Reverse Repurchase pools continue to swell to new all-time highs, most recently $2.34T - earning 1.55% and safely out of perceived harm's way. Depression concerns are clearly intensifying. 2 Year Bond Futures continue to Invert intra-day. M1 / M2 / M3 continue to flee to the Big Lots Pool. _________________________________________________________________ Negative GDP reinforces the Demand Destruction - Consumers will out how Inflation peaks... Central Banks claim to want Positive Real Rates. Consumers are rolling over, demand destruction is seeing far broader participation as Savings / Investment / Incomes decline at the highest ROC's in decades. This would require an outside Fed Fund Futures move, one that appears improbable for the near term. I'd like Ashley Trevort Twins - Seems improbable as well. The difference is, that the odds favor my wish. The Bond Market will retrace in select points on the Yield Curve, but ultimately the Negative real rate to Inflation will find its Afterburner. _________________________________________________________________ Entities are not going to step up, this is clear. The ticking insolvency bomb fuse was lit in early 2021... How long is that fuse? Not long. Equities remain the Capital stock to destroy, Housing / Alt Coins / Metals ... etal are not long for this environment. In order for Global Central Banks to meet their stated objectives... they'll need to become far more aggressive. Will they...
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
2
Mid Year Update: Part 1: 10 Year Rates:Mid-Year Update: Part 1: Bonds/Rates: I begin each year looking at monthly perspective charts of Equity, Rates, Commodities and DXY. Those posts can be found in their entirety, with extensive fundamental support, in the links below. I will update views on the four markets over the next few weeks. The early 2022 the conclusions were: - Bonds: A bull market defined by a broad declining channel, but rising inflation could easily change the trend. The most likely catalyst to end keep rates below 3.25% would be a financial accident created by higher rates. -Equities: SPX remains in a technical bull market and there are no overtly bearish behaviors evident in the longest perspectives. However short term weakness could easily morph into a bear market. -Commodities: Goldman Sachs Commodities index is in the center of a broad 14 year range, bounded essentially by the low set during the financial crisis and the resultant 2011 high. The most notable/useful current chart feature is the clear uptrend from the 2020 pandemic low. Until that uptrend is broken, the most immediate trend is to higher price. -US Dollar: The wide macro range, 70.70 - 121.02 has contained price action over most of my trading career but volatility is more cyclical than price. These periods of low vol. set up conditions that often lead to explosive moves. Reminder: Bond bull and bear markets are defined by the PRICE trend. In other words, a bull market in bonds = rising bond prices and falling yields. 10 Year: Monthly: - In January bonds broke above the 40 year downtrend that had defined the bull market. The break of the downtrend moves the structural long term trend from bullish to neutral. -A monthly close above the 3.25% pivot would begin to define a long term structural bear. - Initial targets above the pivot are found at 5.29% (the 2007 pivot high) and 6.27%, (.382 retracement of the entire bull market). -The monthly MACD oscillator generated a long term sell signal (in December of 2020 at roughly 90 bps). Until this sell signal resolves, place less weight on buy signals generated in lower perspective (daily and weekly) time frames. Weekly: The combination of very strong resistance, overbought MACD and bad seasonals suggest that a counter trend weekly perspective rally or consolidation is becoming likely. -Testing very strong resistance while overbought both in terms of price and momentum. It wouldn't be surprising to see a testing probe of 3.50% but its clear that buyers (expecting lower yields) are becoming more active. -The Mid-June spike above 3.25% left a thrust rejection that suggested strong handed sellers entering. -Weekly MACD is threatening to roll over. -Bond prices have very strong seasonal tendencies, weak into the May - June time frame, stronger into the middle of September, and weak into the end of the year. We are into the period where bonds transition from weakness to strength. -While it’s clear that the trend lower in inflation has inflected higher, potential weekly perspective inflection points in commodities and energy should relieve some of the short term inflation angst and by extrapolation the pressure on bond prices. -Major yield highs are almost always the result of a financial accident with systemic ramifications. I don't think crypto is a big enough market to qualify and other than the widening high yield spreads I don't sense much going on in this regard. -Ten Year TIPS breakeven rates are on the verge of generating a MACD month perspective sell signal (suggesting lower expectations for future inflation). This is a direct reflection of the recent declines in energy and commodities. A TIPS sell signal would be very supportive of lower nominal 10 year rates. Bottom Line: The long term structural bull market is dead, but the market has yet to establish a new structural bear. Unless there is a systemic catalyst, Weekly perspective rallies, particularly into the fourth quarter, should be viewed as selling opportunities.
TVC:US10YEducation
by CMT_Association
19
Yields / Fed Funds / Rates / Inflation / 007s / TLT / ZN / ZBYou can't fix silly. You can't fix stupid. The Bond Market isn't going to fix anything, it assures ruin. ____________________________________________________ Buy the Dip hasn't quite worked out. TLT will head to Sub 52. You were warned long ago exactly what is happening would. And explained in no uncertain terms exactly why. DX back to 125? Yeah... it's how you end up in ruin. Europe first. TNX Yield times 2.81 - follow along or lose.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by HK_L61
3
TNX - Walking the Scarlet HarlotPoof, up - down - all around... 2.76 dipped in @ 2.702, good to see. With the FEDs distro of USTs and MBS well underway ahead of June 15... gobbling up Yields aren't working out so well. No. Supply Limited thanks to the Fellen over @ the Treasury... is now a catalyst for increased chasing. Jerry can offload the Junk to Banks desperate for Yields as they are seeing Loan Activity dry up like the Mohave. Going to be an interesting Liquidity Crisis unfolding again.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
10 year yield broke below the H&S?It seems like the 10 year treasury yield formed a head and shoulders pattern. It broke below the neck line on Friday May 20th 2022 which confirms the pattern. Now we'll have to wait and see if it retests the confluence of resistance around the 2.869% area. A dip in the 10 year yield may cause a rally in the tech sector and also in the general market. The measured objective of this pattern would be around the 2.4% area over the coming weeks. However, there are two levels of support in the way. 1) 2.66% which is a short term support level 2) 2.55% which is a historical level of support. If we close below 2.55% we may be able to expect a further drop in the yields.
TVC:US10YShort
by HaseebKhan_90
ZN - 10 Year Note 2 HourNews this coming week will impact Markets in a broad fashion. ZN can see a larger RT to overhead POs as can ZB (30Yr) should The FED engage in larger YCC interventions, and I believe they will intervene heavily. Macro Data Ahead: MONDAY, MAY 16 8:30 am Empire state manufacturing index May TUESDAY, MAY 17 8:30 am Retail sales April -- 0.8% 8:30 am Retail sales excluding vehicles April 9:15 am Industrial production index April 9:15 am Capacity utilization April 10 am NAHB home builders' index May 10 am Business inventories (revision) March WEDNESDAY, MAY 18 8:30 am Building permits (SAAR) April 8:30 am Housing starts (SAAR) April 8:30 am Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index May THURSDAY, MAY 19 8:30 am Initial jobless claims May 14 8:30 am Continuing jobless claims May 7 10 am Existing home sales (SAAR) April FRIDAY, MAY 20 8:30 am Advance services report Q1
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
The #1 Chart to WatchLadies and Gentlemen, please take your seats. (...the music stops) Okay, thanks for playing. Good luck to all of you! The investment strategies that have worked for the last 40 years will no longer work. The true bear market is here. This will absolutely 100% NOT be a recession that will be forgotten easily. It most likely will be a depression via stagflation which we have never really experienced long-term. Our leaders won't admit it but *News Flash* the Supply Chains are NOT getting fixed like they were before. China has no incentive or interest to fix them and we are the world's biggest debtor. We got 20% of all our imports from them in 2021. That doesn't sound like a lot but that 20% is involved in the supply chains of 70-80% of our goods. The Chinese gov has already warned its people of the incoming food shortage and have been far more honest with their people than our Western leaders have been. Good luck in the New World Order! Courtesy of the World Gov. Summit 2022, the IMF, World Bank, etc. (Not Financial Advice, Just what I see.)
TVC:US10YLong
by MonetaryRebel
1
USDJPY Could Retest The Highs, While US Bonds Are DownHello traders! Today we want to share an intraday update for USDJPY pair in which we see nice and clean bullish impulse in progress, ideally back to highs for wave 5 that can retest the highs and 125 - 126 area. The main reason why USDJPY may stay up is still an unfinished five-wave decline on 10Y US Treasury Notes. As you can see, there's a negative correlation, so if bonds are still pointing lower for wave (5), then USDJPY could easily stay up, while the price is above 123.05 invalidation level. Trade well! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Long
by ew-forecast
1
Are Bonds Being Dumped to Buy Bitcoin?BTCUSD / US Bonds are Inversely Correlated Since March 7, 2022 the bond market has been in a freefall, spiking rates, as you can see with the 10 Year Treasury Bitcoin has been on a rally that started on March 7 with a major spike then pullback the following day, only to take off like a freight train. This a clear inverse correlation that has set in and does not look like it's abating at all. Is this really happening? Bonds being sold to buy Bitcoin? Thoughts? Please comment. Stay tuned as this is very interesting!
CBOT:ZN1!
by chris333
A good time to buy 10 year t-noes in 30 min frameGOOD MORNING, after the last short trading range, that seems like a semi diamond finally we are over the VWAP and we have a big strength of buyers right now although the candle is red they are here so the chance of an uptrend in the next 30 min nearly 75% due to big volume and the safety we have from the VWAP. contact me if you want me for any analysis check my profile to see my "correct" predictions in the last few days GOOD LUCK twitter:0uchaib
CBOT:ZN1!
by MOHAMEDOUCHAIB
10 Year Rate: Price keeps moving up!Quick Analysis on 10 Year Treasury Yield on a 1D Linear Chart. 1) The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has been respecting a falling channel for multiple decades going back to the 1980s. 2) It has broken out of the top trendline of the falling channel with a recent re-test of the S/R line. 3) The measured move of the falling channel would bring it back to Pre-2008 ranges (LONG-TERM). The measured move is noted. 4) There was a Bull Flag Pattern forming on the charts within the falling channel pattern, which helped the price move higher. The measured move for the SHORT-TERM is noted. 5) I discussed this breakout in the first week of December 2021 when the price was still at around 1.40ish. PAY ATTENTION! What are your opinions on this? If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
TVC:TNX
by MillionaireEconomics
3