TNX - 10 YR T-Note Yield - Overblown?This thing is way ahead of where quarterly money flows suggest it should be - I think it will pull back and consolidate 1.10 - 1.150 range. Also looks to be exhibiting the same post-crisis recovery that it followed after the GFC. I'm pretty sure all of these anti-fed pumpers were out there barking about it back then as well.
Also, Bitcoin (all cryptos) still look like crud, barely hanging on minus over 30% and still tired.
Stocks looking real good in terms of quarterly money flows. This recent pull back looks like profit taking to me (maybe another 5% down and reverse but I think we are near the end of the correction. Oil also holding up and actually creeping higher, suggesting demand remains (for now); again, we know that the American consumer IN 2007 - FIFTEEN YEARS AGO - was able to support $100+ / barrel oil. Today we are tickling $86 / barrel.
Fear sells. Listen to the data.
God Bless.
#GoChiefs!
10yearnote
ES1! - Opex Week Preview in 3DYhe 10Y Note Yield Gained 4.8% on Friday, topping out at 1.79%. The echoes from the pundits are calling for a return to value as high beta-growth has seen continued pressure, with ARKK leading the declines. NQ1! defended it's 4h Higher low on Friday with a hammer but remains in a 4h Real-Body Bear-Flag. In contrast RTY1! (Russell 2000) and YM1! (Dow Jones Industrial Average), set lower lows before their bounces. RTY1! is in a 4h bear channel, approaching the upper-bound. Vix lost steam at 22 finding support at 19. For consolidation to continue the path is a Daily H&S neckline break, in the most recent test of the largest expansion in the History of the Federal Reverse's Balance Sheet. This looks like a middle, with major markets offering divergent clues. Opex weeks have a way of offering abrupt clarity.
Updating the US10Y Bonds.Data for Kissing/Crossing 200Weekly MA:
2017-2019? One year nothing then 11%/20%
2015-2016 : 14%
2015-9 months sideways then 12%
2015 xxxx nothing
2013-2014 Long bull move. 9% pullback.
2011- 8%
2011- 7%
2010- 17%
2005-2007 : xxx long Bull move the crash
05-6%
05- 7%
04- 8%
1999-13%/10%/13% then crash
1997- 10% the bull move.
1996-8% Choppy Market then bull move
1994-9% then big bullish market ( 1 Year choppy market)
20%
11%
7%
7%
8%
36%
14 %
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Summary: 24 signals Kissing or Crossing 200W MA.
18 signals we went down @ kissing/crossing .
Kissing/crossing happened a during pullbacks.
6 months-Year nothing happened then crash crossing
down.
75% success rate we will get a pullback/correction
kissing/crossing 200w MA.
25% we will continue a Bullish till crossing down then crash
- 2 Years after crossing then crash 2007
-2015 cross up/down = Nothing happen to SPX !!!
ZN - 10 Year Note Futures / Monthly @ 20 Yrs / The Abyss of DEBTIt is often said by Quantity Theorists echoing, Milton Friedman - "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”
Conditions... matter, they change as does the "moneyness of money" - but you can't keep the Chicago School of Economic
mind poisoning down.
That could be why I didn't play with academia, it is a toxic sandbox wed to a beach at times. Polluting the incoming tides.
Friedman could not have imagined how awry his QT has been turned on its collective head.
Gold Bugs to this day, quote this - scores of times every single day. "Were Gold Priced in DEBT
it would be $250,000+"
No one cares, least of all Central Banks who Demonetized it but made it legal to own under Nixon.
You all swap fungibles for... Silver? A Weimar home? Taco Bell?
Good luck, it's a Tier 1 asset on the Books of Central Banks for a reason and trades at a varying rate as it always has.
Q of M clearly isn't tied to it and it's not chasing away Good Money for Bad any longer... those storied days passed very
long ago.
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Money loses its purchasing power parity in a number of ways - not simply through more money chasing goods and services,
this is merely one-sided - "ceteris para bis" Jedi Mind Fuck at its finest.
Causation is always assumed from the money supply increase to price rises...a very basic truth, but ONLY a precondition
and not a fate acompli.
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The Fundamental causes of a general price inflation are still supply-side factors - for example, rises in wages or prices of factor input costs - which we see in the PMI data - to date not fully passed onto Consumes due to Supply-Side Shocks ) or demand-side ones - high demand causing price increases in markets.
The fatal flaw is QMT assumes an exogenous money world and the wrong direction of causality.
The contraction in Broad Money with a Credit Money System aka Bank Money is destroyed as people move to acquire CASH money
or what is perceived to be a CASH Equivalent.
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Simply Put: Aged Theory is flawed beyond. Supply Side Cocktails and the Ingredients of the CREDIT MONEY Elixirs are quite
different than in 1963 Uncle Milty.
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Speaking of Credit (DEBT MONEY if you can al it that) the BOE recently raised rates.
China, faced with new lockdowns surrounding the - Credit Squeeze (TY to Shevchenko for the prod to dig in and determine WTF) .
Turns out 6 property developers including the "Grande" have deferred wages the CCP now says must be paid by the start of the
Lunar New Year, oh and... yer gonna need to pay $21.37 Billion in Bonds or default.
Sounds bad huh? Not remotely...
Back wages amount to $174.38 Billion, can't pay 'em?
Lock 'em down, which is precisely what the CCP is setting up to avoid immense Social upheaval.
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Are we seeing a trend appear?
We are indeed. Debt Defaults have been propped by Governments to stave off tragic Social disruptions.
Hardly a footstep in the direction of Trust for Journey of 1,000 miles to default.
S'ok China, yer not alone, we proudly stand with you, although we've been at tit longer on this turn, so we're
just better at wallpapering over it with Currency Seniorage.
Yaun / Renminbi - only one works inside and one outside.
Hmmm...
That could not possibly happen here in the US of A, could it?
Naw.
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When you destroy the Moneyness of Money with it goes all attendant prior theory as well as the very thing used to bring
Money into Circulation @ Tier One - The BOND MARKETS.
Fractional Reserve Banking merely extends it to obscene levels of Leverage and DEBT which are far beyond repayment.
Toss in the 6% Vig the FED takes for this privilege and after a hundred or so years, they end up owning everything.
They are, after all, the lender of last resort, the DTC merely the record keeper for when the payments halt and DEBT
becomes unserviceable.
What are your opportunity costs to Debt?
What do you value?
Forget Price it's no longer a metric for the sane, merely a distended and starved stomach.
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Moral:
When Risks are ignored, they are mispriced...
10 Year Note - Support Bear Back-Test in 3DA Market Metaverse - Vix remains above 20 with NQ1! finding resistance at the 16400-16450 zone for the 13th time on the 2h since November 23rd. The Fixed Range Volume Profile (11/23 - 12/16) - Point of Control (POC) is 16286, 2.54% above the current price. The 10Y bond back-tested, bear, the 1.43 support break.
10 Year Bond Yield - Inverse Head and Shoulders in 3DPrice is testing the neckline with mini-bull pennant below the neckline. A low volume day in the indexes as consolidation commenced after the covering rally yesterday. AAPL has led the bull rotation, with Meta finding support at $300. MSFT found supply at the 338 zone with 15!! tests of that resistance since it's loss on 11/23.
10 Year Note - Inverse H&S 8h View - in 3DThat wraps-up the trading before the break. The 10 Year Note is top watch as we round the corner to last month of the year. Today, after a pre-market ramp, the 10 year found resistance, fueling the relief rally for NAS. NAS found support, after recovering the Daily MBB.
10 Year Note Defended Monthly iH&S NecklineNeed to move this chart to the top of the heap each day to keep the profile in mind for 2022. With BTC finding Institutional Support through Futures, ETFs, and Options the interplay between Big Tech, Inflationary pressures, the Bonds, and Crypto looks like a place to spend some time. For now, the cheap money looks to add fuel to the Rally. The PPI was in good shape with an inline reading today. CPI next.