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10yr

TNX - Walking the Scarlet HarlotPoof, up - down - all around... 2.76 dipped in @ 2.702, good to see. With the FEDs distro of USTs and MBS well underway ahead of June 15... gobbling up Yields aren't working out so well. No. Supply Limited thanks to the Fellen over @ the Treasury... is now a catalyst for increased chasing. Jerry can offload the Junk to Banks desperate for Yields as they are seeing Loan Activity dry up like the Mohave. Going to be an interesting Liquidity Crisis unfolding again.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
ARIASWAVE - Price Action is The BEST Indicator, NOT FundamentalsFundamentals are what economists use to forecast and predict the future and this is why most economists suffer from recency bias and tend to extrapolate into the future. Yet I keep reading the disclaimer that past performance is not indicative of future results. So why do we have a situation where people believe what the FED or the mainstream media have to say? If professional economists continue to get it wrong then how can anyone take these people seriously? When I created AriasWave many years ago I knew that there was a problem with how people get their investing advice. AriasWave is not a financial advising service but it certainly does allow you to make your own decisions based on your on analysis because we live in a world of fake news and misinformation. People are like lemmings, they will literally follow each other off the financial cliff. My job here is to make you think about finding a way to put that control back in your own hands. I am always inclined to trust the WAVES because they are the one true gauge as to what the collective is really thinking. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
TVC:DJI
by AriasWave
10yr with MOVE What does this show? The Move Index, indicates the volts within the bond market, yield movement is an important factor that everyone should keep in mind, even if you don't trade the asset. Now, this is more of an advance level: Fixed-Income division: As we all know, volts has been up, it's been like 🥢 is what I call this market when it comes to US indices, I use it as hedge just like I use the VIX with ES. We all know we are in a bear market it's very different to what we experience in the pandemic there are major shifts have occurred and will be occurring for the months and years ahead. What does this mean for Bond market? Well, due to inflation pressures globally, dxy heads higher, but most markets I trade is US bonds we have inverted when it comes to yields 2/10yr to negative state... What does this mean? Simply we may have stagflation or recession heading in next 18-24 months. Now sure, that could head earlier into that, inflation figures are at record highs, GDP figures getting questionable and let me tell you something it's hurting us as consumers no matter what country you are in, I'm sure in UK residences you'd had a your energy bills - lovely weren't they (Sarcasm). Take a look at history of cycles, and actually last time china came into help but I don't think they will this time but this cycle is obviously different but a change is yet to come further. This is explained in-depth in the week ahead videos, but most importantly - DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH! It's so important to test various tools out in trading and see what suits you personally best. There is no one set way of trading, we all got various different plans. I have been using the MOVE index with 2/10/30yrs and it's been working out great, just little tip for you guys on how many great metrics there are out there that can help make you make investment decisions. Those groups I am part of know what trades I am part of . Next great move will be coming as we have had Feds minutes, Hawkish but we also have had plenty of Fed speakers and now we could rally even more 50 basis hikes and most of it is priced in as market is forward looking...Now don't forget higher dollar, the yen another currency pair that was great to be looking out on, housing market🎈, credit spreads, think about EM market! Things are going to get even more interesting! Stay tuned Hope this in-depth analysis helps you. Best wishes, Trade Journal
TVC:US10Y
by Trade_Journal
2yr & 10yr Bond with M1Nothing to be concerned about here... if you're an ostrich. Inflation spiraling out of control, while bonds reflect the loosest monetary policy possible with a dovish Federal Reserve hand-wringing about tanking the markets. M1 has gone beyond parabolic, practically vertical. The Fed communicated this week that they will try and control future prices but they're not going to do anything to reign in current "transitory" prices. Fed Chair Powell "hopes" history will say the current regime got this under control when replying to Senator Shelby in congressional talks this week... to which Shelby replied their actions to this point indicate otherwise.
TVC:US10Y
by R0MM3LL
TNX - MeanwhileWhile Higher Taxes for the Muddle Class are on the way. The Billionaires Boys Club sees the Stimmy as their Salvation. Higher Taxes? Only if I can get First Abuser Rights to 10X what I'll be required to pay for "Them".... The Bond Market believes the Stimulus - "Further Recovery, Infrastructure, Spending Bill" will get things on track once it's pared back to $1 Trillion... How do you mend a Broken Global Economy as Yield Curves are flattening around the Globe? You cannot. Global Markets - showing the way. And all those people out of work and resources? F_ck em, appears to be the Path. ____________________________________________________ Have a good evening everyone
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
10
TNX - A break of 1.645 during GlobexThis break, although outside of RTH, is indeed important. It signals a retracement potential, but more importantly it opens the Higher Price Objective @ 1.71 - 1.76. The Equity Complex is pretending the "what me worry trade" once again. We are concerned, as it represents a very large issue for the Equity Complex should the ROCs continue to build. All eyes should be on the Yield Curve's MidPoint. It can imply a rather large selloff. Today thru Tomorrow has all the hallmarks of problems developing.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
5
TNX - 10Yr Yield largest SELL Side Offer since Mid-FebruaryPricing in "Inflation" has been a series of rapid events for Price. Yields began the highest velocity spike in History during the January to April adjustment. Bond Sellers have begun to increase their Sell. Retail is now 83% Short against the NQ ES YM... ahead of the most important Week we have had in Months, Since February. TNX has run-up to its -.236, a Catalyst Level. Duress in Bonds will further increase VX in Equities, both directions as there are only a limited number of Capital Pools. Money will flow where the returns can develop: CASH METALS COMMODITIES BONDS STOCKS REAL ESTATE Crypto (Unregulated Illusory Capital) Choose wisely, this cuts both ways. It is remarkable how few Bond Holders did not envision this possibility. The engrained mindset becomes one of defiance at any cost to preserve the Cult's Dogma. The Bond Market within the United States is ever so slowly being destroyed, its destruction is accelerating for reasons we have outlined repeatedly. Trade Safe out there, disruptions are simply beginning. - HK
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
12
Stocks To Watch This WeekThe Market's longer term uptrend still intact. Interest rates are driving the market.. These names have shown good relative strength and accumulation volume and most are in the growth sector. This may give good risk/reward entries on some of the best names. Some of these charts still need to confirm their price action. This video is my watchlist. Most of these names are at or near all time highs or multi year highs. There are 21 total stocks on this list Many of these have IPO'd in the last few years and still have a growth story ahead of them. Know your time frame and risk tolerance. Know your earnings dates! I go through these quickly so grab a pencil and paper and jot down the names that look interesting to you and then make the trade your own. Good Luck!
NYSE:LYVLong
by Jtacher51
22
ZN - JPY/DXY - Trouble in AsiaWith DX Strength coming from the JPY Pair... The Red Swan continues to build from our months long indicated Vector - China. The CCP announced they will only bail out Domestics. ETF Passives hold, indirectly, a far larger stake in China's Economy then is openly acknowledged. Never has the South China Sea - been this active militarily. TSML... in questions as to how that evolves. The 6e is weak, very weak. It has yet to break the .382s on RTs. FX dislocations, as indicated - are here. 8 AM EST will set the tone trade for the Longer End of the Bond Curve. ZB has been far more reliable in providing indications as to how Participants are positioning. The Flight to Bond Safety is coming into question again as Bond Holders are challenging the FED's narrative: "There is no Inflation IF we remove it from our Models" Genius Jerome, there are some statements during the press conference... He should simply give up on these PR stunts. They have become a complete and total F A R C E
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
3
10 Year Treasury Note - ROC's Building againRates of Change for Yields will face increasing Competition in the coming weeks. We anticipate further to quickly be met with YCC. Yields have been mixed at lows, attempting to Hang their Man. Central Banks receive their orders on High. Governments can no longer borrow to fund their annual spending. Digital "Currency" proposals from the WEF via Lagarde at the IMF, Echoed @ the BIS and then it's stepchild the ECB. The Debt can of worms can no longer be kicked down the road. Europe is in the final stages of collapsing under the Existing System. This will spread Cajun style, like a swamp Gator that eats everything that moves in the DEBT SWAMP. Rumors (Credible) of the Federal Reserve accepting Direct Deposits is halting the Primary Dealer network of Banks (First Abusers) who, via Trading Arms and partners such as BlackRock and VanGuard and many other smaller boutiques such as Gelber - have been able to manipulate ALL Markets without consequence... The Federal Government required them to sell their DEBT. This effort is very clearly coming to a decided end. Globally, the entire Financial System and edifice is being dumped on its Head.
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
3
ARIASWAVE MARKET UPDATE - NASDAQ\DOW JONES\10YR\USD\BITCOIN\XLMIn this Market update I continue to cover what is going on in these unstoppable markets. Whether it's up, down or sideways. There is always a good reason for what is currently in progress. Some people say that it will keep going up until it stops, so how far can they throw off the social mood? It depends on who is in control and I think we all know who that is. However these markets forces are driven by nature and will always step in and make one thing clear: You cannot control the markets forever and especially without repercussions. Just go back through history and find out for yourself. This is not the first time that governments and agencies have tried to control and stabilize the markets but it makes a good headline. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
CAPITALCOM:XLMUSD
by AriasWave
10