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Price Outlook of Gold for 2021-2050*** THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS *** 10Y Treasury and Gold's Price: Gold is correlated strongly (92%) with the 10Y Treasury. During 2020, during the depths of the pandemic, we saw 10Y rates under 0.5%. This was the primary catalyst for Gold to find its new ATH during August of 2020. This strong correlation makes it necessary to understand the primary drivers of Federal Reserve policy and actions. Miss-guided Inflation to Gold Correlation: Inflation is the most commonly purported catalyst behind Gold's price movements. This remains true, however the present narrative surrounding inflation (and the convoluted way QE finds its way to markets) makes it very difficult for the public to have an understanding of long-term inflationary expectations. Under the current regime, we are in much greater danger of Cyclical Deflation than any significant inflation. Hyper-inflationary rhetoric is silly and I'll not address it seriously. My assertions of inflation and deflation trends rely strongly on the Federal Reserve operating under the laws by which it's presently constituted. This is unlikely to happen in the long term. Federal Reserve Frustrations and Law Breaking/Changing: Within the next 5 years it will become painfully obvious to the Federal Reserve they're incapable of generating true inflation. Once the Fed and the Government resign to this fact, there'll be a proposal to change the Federal Reserve Acts to give the Fed more monetary freedom. The way this affects American Life is in the introduction of a CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency); transforming the Fed from the Lender of last resort into the Spender of all resorts. This will be the true catalyst behind inflationary trades; shifting Gold's closest price correlation from the 10Y rate to the threat of true inflation. Powell's Fed Ending: Jerome Powell is slated for re-appointment early in 2022. I don't think he will be. It's likely the next Chairman (Chairwoman) of the Fed will probably be Lael Brainard. In this case, my above statements are hastened and magnified. Federal Reserve (Monetary Policy Trajectory): The Federal Reserve remains hawkish in the short term. This means short term 10Y rates are unlikely to rise to or above 2% for the next few years. As stated above, under present forces, low rates are bullish for the price of Gold but since rates are already tightly approaching 2% the buy signal for gold will remain neutral until 2023. I don't think Gold make any significant moves, but it will likely maintain its present price with a +/-10% around the 200 day moving average. Price Prediction: I will not be buying more physical gold until either 10Y rates rise and remain above 2% or until the Fed introduces a CBDC. I don't see either of these catalysts forming until 2023. Until 2023, it's best to play the short-term averages and trajectories in the Paper Gold markets. Depending upon the economic outcomes of the next few years, Gold could vary wildly in price. If strong deflation persists, $500 Gold is not out of the question. If Laws change and a CBDC is introduced, the price of Gold could easily rise above $10,000 (or other denominations). Unconsidered Catalysts (BASEL III): BASEL III is close to being enacted. I have not been able to research all of the components of BASEL III's changes. However, one of the major changes (along with reinstating Gold as a Tier I asset for collateralization purposes) is making unallocated positions impossible. How BASEL III does this is not clear to me but I will post an update once I have a better understanding of this. Removal of unallocated paper positions in Gold would result in a precipitous rise in Gold's price if the assumption of many Goldbugs (that gold is heavily manipulated through paper markets (ETF's and Bullion Banks)) are true. This isn't that ridiculous an idea considering some statements given by Greenspan and Bernanke. I'll go into details on these statements in future ideas. Short Term Prediction (Now to 2023): NEUTRAL with a price of Gold ranging from $1,700.00 to $1,900.00 . Long Term Prediction (2023 to 2050): REMARKABLY BULLISH with a price of Gold ranging from $50,000.00 (eq) to $100,000 (eq). (where "eq" allows for future U.S. dollar equivalents)
TVC:GOLD
by forever_green
10Yr - A Very Clear Capital Return PanicSince January there has been a stealth accumulation out the Curve. In March it began to quietly accelerate. While Algo's drove ZN into the 131s, buyers were gobbling up each and every drive lower, building an outsized position which saw Volume peak in May from May 2nd to May 31st. Dark Pools began their acceleration in March. There is a clear trend deeply concerned with an "Event" - one which saw Volumes begin to accelerate June 16th. Volatility in Bonds should begin to pick up dramatically. Extreme Caution is warranted for Equity Complex, in particular Technology and Regional Banking. The VIX Curve, specifically SEP/OCT spread should be closely watched. We are seeing clear signs of Backwardation that could quickly invert.
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
10Yr Note - When the Levy BreaksThe important Context of "Pristine Collateral" as we have addressed repeatedly is the Salient Issue - The Return of Capital. The availability of T-Bills remains in an extremely short supply. The Federal Reserve - $230 Billion at last disclosure. The United States Treasury - $0. T-Bill terms of 4, 8, 13, 26, and 52 weeks for issuance have seen the highest percentage of issuance @ present — 91-day, 182-day and 364-day. UST's schedule: www.treasury.gov UST Direct, place your offer - www.treasurydirect.gov * Please let us know how you fared, we did not. Powell, by nature - points the finger and blame @ Sec. Of Treasury - Janet Yellen. Yellen is suppressing "Pristine Collateral" according to Jerome Powell. Is She though... If Banks are not lending... They need to be paid to hold the abundance of CASH. But, wait a minute... Money Center Banks / Primary Broker Dealers do not want CASH. They prefer you place your CASH in Money Market Funds. Say what, Banks don't want CASH? Yes, it is serious LIABILITY on their balance sheets at this point in time as their balance sheets are DEBT Laden. WTF Mate, what are you talkin bout? J.Dude, seriously - you are delusional... This is simply a series compounding errors by ALGOs trading in the Treasury market. IF you believe this - please consider the following: We pointed out this is or LTCM / Lehman moment on an exponential Scale more than a few times. So let's clear the decks with respect as to why Mate. When the lowest yielding Treasury is in Demand - exponential Demand. WE have a problem, one in which everyone loses a Hand. Credit simply gives way to Crisis - Crisis is all that results. And we are all seeing this presently - Inflation is at the highest rate in REAL TERMS while Yields on the Treasury Curve in Real Terms are at the Lowest on Record. Convergence, it a nasty Bitch.
TVC:US10YShort
by HK_L61
1
10 Year Treasury Note into Jackson Hole10yr Yields peaked at ~1.70 as the Federal Reserve began YCC (Yield Curve Control) well in advance of recognition by the Retail Bond Market. With a shortage of T-Bills and Janet Yellen attempting to Fund the Fiscal Malfeasance out the Curve in order to reduce Short Term funding. With CASH mounting in Money Market Funds, there remains a large pool of Cash with the potential to absorb further issuance while driving Notes to Bonds Yields even lower. The issue becomes the non-transitory nature of shortages, rates of labor, price levels for those of us keeping track and a number of perversions to the integrity of Data presented. There is a long history of Intervention Failures, the approaching one will be historic. Europe has by any measure, already defaulted. This Point of recognition is quickly approaching in August. It will spread and generate a panic.
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
2
Macro Perspective - TechnologyAn increasing level of concern is rising within the Bond, Equity and Real Estate Complexes or Markets. I prefer Complex as each "Market" has a number of entities using their control mechanisms. The Equity Complex has a number of headwinds approaching for Technology (NQ). Yields, specifically the 10Yr Treasury Note has been a reliable Instrument for an Inverse or Negative Correlation. 10Yr Yields rose Friday 4.6% In addition, we want to observe the Long End of the Yield Curve flattening - this is a warning sign, one which proceeds corrections. Technically, the most recent reversal has seen poor breadth within NQ. The majority of the rise have been driven by the usual narrow Big Cap, heaviest weighted Equities. AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, FB, MSFT - NVDA provided most of the gains for Index. Unusual option activity has been on the rise as well, favoring large and often extreme positions for downside. One Trade amounted to $40Million in QQQ 340 Puts. The NQ has repeatedly created a large squeeze prior to a reversal, the last thrust higher pushed up 500 points late in the day only to collapse the following day, giving up all of its gains. IMHO, something is brewing which will be extremely bad for the NQ. There are a number of vectors for it see a large correction. Earnings will be led by share buy backs, Co2 Credits and a host of other accounting manifestations, but Gross Revenues should be less than optimal for a sustained uptrend. The "Delta" variant may encourage some traders to position for increasing "growth" initially - this is not March of 2020. Taiwan is at risk on a number of fronts. This would clearly be a large negative for Semiconductors. I do believe this will play out as there is an increasing number of large entities seeking to follow Apple's lead with their RISC Architecture and begin using their own Chipset Designs and Architecture. MSFT announced this some time ago. Google continues to reduce MSFT Office's market share with Google Docs. Windows 11 is a clear signal MSFT is changing their strategy after having announcing Win 10 was it. The concentration of Chip/Chipset fabrication in Taiwan presents an imbalance globally and with it the attendant risks. China is one, Water is another and there are a more. Japan has recently sworn to defend Taiwan as they are wholly dependent on Semiconductors for almost everything they manufacture. The US has conducted multiple Naval exercises in the South China Sea for years. IS something brewing there? I do not know, but do believe there is an inherent risk well advanced with respect to Taiwan. There is little the US can do to prevent China taking back Taiwan IMHO. I favor a Geopolitical Event inducing this correction, one that occurs after hours during GLOBEX and not RTH. Europe is well advanced in declining Economic activity. The pace of Economic growth in China has slowed. The US reopening trade has been one of confusion, mistrust and one foot our the door. If traders review Samsung in 2019 and their decline in Gross Revenues, we are witnessing the same event spreading once again. Inflation changes purchasing decisions, substitution effects begin to take place. There is much more, but I will condense this in now: I expect Tech to see a large correction later this month. I expect a number of Monthly Red Bars for a number of Indices. I will discuss the ES YM RTY and Bonds in upcoming posts. I do believe the Russell 2000 and tech will lead the Indices down soon. Perhaps August - November contracts will serve us well. Given the large ranges, using Micro Contracts for Inverse Ladders would be a wise choice. The VXN should be monitored closely, it has worked well. We will see how hard this can be pushed prior to a large reversal. The VIX has not been as correlated to the NQ as the VXN and 10Yr Yields. Good Trading Everyone - more to follow as we are approaching highs in everything, although the YM won't likely peak until August.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by HK_L61
2
An Uncanny ObservationThe last two major stock market retracements occurred in 2000, and in 2007, respectively. Each of these was assigned an underlying cause and an overarching title. Yet, it could just be that both of these were caused by the same de facto trigger; rather than the convenient set of societal circumstances surrounding each at the time. Nomenclature and true cause aside, there seems to be an uncanny mechanism embedded in our broader financial market system that can be actualized when described in time units. That is, the number of calendar days in between the first local instance of US Government Bond yield curve inversion and the next major corresponding top of the S&P 500 Index is strangely consistent, at least when comparing the lead-time between that of the 2000 Tech Bubble and the 2007 Mortgage Crisis. Approximately 640 Calendar Days (440 Trading Days) separate the first day that the 10-Year/2-Year rate inflects and the subsequent orthodox high of the equity markets. Now, it is fairly known that since 1955, this 10Y/2Y yield inversion has set the stage for an incumbent recession. In fact, there hasn't been an instance where such an inversion did not lead to a significant pullback in equity prices 6 months - 2 years thereafter. While this fact above is astonishing, in and of itself, the observation regarding the two most recent equity crashes is almost too weird to accept. However, what would be even more extraordinary is if it proved out for a third time in a row. It just so happens that the same yield inversion occurred for three days in a row back in late August of 2019. When you add ~640 calendar days to this date, you arrive at a two-week date range that starts on 05/26/2021 and ends on 06/04/2021. That means that if the uncanny pattern, is in fact, uncanny, then we should expect a major market top to have already occurred last week or that will occur by the end of this week. We would then also have to expect a major, subsequent selloff - the likes of which have only transpired twice in the past 20 or so years. Time will tell. -UncannyPig TVC:SPX TVC:DXY TVC:NDX TVC:DJI CURRENCYCOM:US500 TVC:IXIC CURRENCYCOM:US30 CURRENCYCOM:US100 TVC:US10Y
TVC:SPX
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
84
US GOV BONDS 10 YR YIELD - MULTI TIME FRAMES - ONGOING DOWNTRENDM1 : Levels to watch : Upside : 1.80 Downside : 1.4880 W1: Last week closing below Tenkan-Sen D1 : In an ongoing downtrend channel, currently below TS and MBB; currently traded around the top clouds support zone and still above the middle level of this downtrend channel. H4 : Last recovery attempt towards 1.69, failed !Below KS, MBB and TS. Bottom of the clouds support has been tested ! H1 : The low reached @ 1.5940 triggered some corrective recovery, but still below the clouds M30 : Recovery attempt in progress towards the clouds resistance area. M15: Clouds, for the time being, rejected the breakout attempt. M5 : In the clouds, looking where to go... CONCLUSION : THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND AND ONLY A SUSTAINABLE MOVE ABOVE 1.8000 WOULD FORCE A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF THE EXPECTED (YIELD) BEARISH SCENARIO. Ironman8848
TVC:US10YShort
by Ironman8848
US GOV 10 Y - INTRADAY - TRADING IN THE ZONE !H4 : Triangle target filled @ 1.6860 %. Ongoing reversal in progress Watch, on H4 closing basis, Mid Bollinger Band (@ 1.6280) as first support indicator H1: After having briefly broken the uptrend channel (wrong breakout, doji top followed by a long black candle ! the 10 Y is still in this ongoing uptrend channel with a first attempt to downside breakout, which failed. Below the support line of this channel there is a more important support zone to look at, which is the clouds area with its bottom level, which coincides with the 38.2% Fib ret @ 1.6270 A failure to hold above that level would put the focus to lower level, 1.56 % being the level of the triangle prolongation on H4 . If seen pullback would be achieved M15 : A Head and Shoulder formation is in progress with its neckline broken. Technical target is @ 1.56 % too CONCLUSION : Expected trading range 1.70-1.55 % on short term
TVC:US10YShort
by Ironman8848
US GOV BONDS 10 YR YIELD - M1/W1/D1 - POINTING TO THE SOUTHM1 : After having nearly reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 3.25% to 0.3620 % move, high being 1.7740 % !, the ongoing current monthly price action is showing a potential trend reversal in progress, which could trigger, tomorrow, on a monthly closing level, a "DARK CLOUD COVER" (Wait for confirmation) W1 : Double top price action in progress with its trigger level @ 1.5890 which has already be broken several times so far but not confirmed yet ! A breakout confirmation of that level (1.5890 %), on a weekly closing level, would give a technical target of 1.4040 %. Important to note that the level of D1 Mid Bollinger Band i@ 1.3490 % and a move below that level would be the second validation signal of this double top formation. VERY STRONG SUPPORT ZONE BELOW BEING THE CLOUDS AREA !!! D1 : Despite the yesterday's breakout attempt, the ongoing downtrend (in yield) price action is still, for the time being, intact, calling if 1.5890 is broken,for the target above mentioned of 1.4040 %. ALSO VERY IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE LEVEL OF THE DOUBLE TOP TARGET AT 1.4040 % COINCIDES WITH THE D1 BOTTOM CLOUDS SUPPORT LEVEL !!! On the upside, the ongoing downtrend resistance line should be seen as the first important level to break and this on a D1 closing basis ! In case of a confirmation of this breakout, we may see a retest of former high 1.70-1.77 which should, if seen provide, again, good selling (yield) opportunities. Watch intraday shorter time frames, (H4,H1 and M15) to get intermediate signal (s), such as divergence (s) which would allow you to adapt your trading plan in acting accordingly. Have a nice trading day. All the best, take care. And last but not least, if you find my technical analysis valuable for your trading, please do not forget to like it and if not done yet add me on your following list. Ironman8848 :-)
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
1