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10yr

Big Picture: $SPX, $VIX, 10YR, $AAPLThe Dow just closed 10%, making it the largest single-day point decline since 1987. The main issue I have with this though is, there is no catalyst in the near-term to reverse things. The selling really just compounds on itself now. Very little of this actually correlate to underlying fundamentals... which is even more worrying. Meanwhile, the dollar remains surprisingly strong relative to other countries, though, versus Asia basket, we are getting kicked. Guess we'll just be waiting for ol' J.P. to take the stage next week. The $500M repo is a great starting point, but it's really going to take more than cash infusions to stop the pan(dem)ic. www.reuters.com
CBOT:ZN1!
by CrosbyVenture
ridethepig | Historic Moves In Yields !An insane move across Yields with historic outflows, I am expecting some relief over the coming weeks but we the lows are still open for a 5th wave sequence. This target will worryingly come into play at 0.20x! We have intentionally covered the Credit Spreads together here in order to see what is "challenging" in the US economy: Such compensation is frequently that the recession is forced as the economy ends up in some wilderness. Such an environment is however transformed into a garden of Eden if the transition away from Protectionist Public Sector flows and Governments is opened. The following examples will make my meaning crystal clear: After VIX exploded 250% !!! via coronavirus triggering the immediate mistake occurred in Monetary policy which sent shockwaves across all main markets. The Fed capitulating is a major blow to Central Banking independence, because the Whitehouse mismanagement and fiscal policies are being funded in broad daylight by Powell. The crossroads between a higher stock market and a higher dollar was always going to trigger the next round of easing and QE. Of course, Yields can be bought after the lows are set but that takes time. But buyers have no worries, since with a solid centre a loose Rates market is easy enough to defend. Even more than that, Fed's "Loose Gambit" will turn into a slow moving but safe instrument of attack on USD: And now that we have to some extent defined the logic between the wilderness markets are walking into via the demand and supply shock vis a vis the monetary policy measures referred to at the start of the segment. For the technicals 🗺 Steel Support 0.72 <=> Strong Support 0.81 <=> Soft Support 0.85 <=> S/R FLIP <=> Soft Resistance 1.08 <=> Strong Resistance 1.17 <=> Steel Resistance 1.24 It is extremely important to track this chart and understand that markets challenging Central Banks, though it apparently only looks like a spiteful play, in fact represents a problem in the underlying structure of protectionism in the US. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments rolling!
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
3
S&P to 3900, potential on phase1 trade dealAfter an array of failed emergency monetary tactics such as a $500B a year corporate tax break, 3 rounds of Quantitative Easing and 3 rate cuts, finally after the trade deal was announced, we peaked our head well up above the bottom of channel / sub-channel we had been stuck in for over a year now. This was additional evidence that the drag on stock markets despite all the corporate welfare was largely due to the direct impact of the trade war (and related unpredictable policy) on global economies. Likely it will take a little time to step its way up to top of channel and likely will only happen in the absence of renewed trade tensions. Other than renewed trade tensions, there doesn't seem much in the way to prevent us from seeing the S&P at 3800-3900 in 2020. If we do reach top of this 10 year channel for the S&P bull market, it will be the first time we have seen it in over 4 years now and the actual first evidence of a strong corporate economy under this administration. At this point the only way to outperform the markets from the previous 8 years is if this administrations economic policies are able to see a break upwards out of top of this 10 year channel without further emergency monetary policy boosting it. After mostly riding the bottom of trend for 4 years now, this is only the second time we have seen hope for breaking out of the sluggish bottom of channel, we just need to maintain the path of restoring global trade and I think we will see top of channel. There is a lot of potential here. This is not trade advice, DYOR, Author is holding S&P ETF options long. s
SP:SPXLong
by EncryptShawn
1
Elliott Wave View: Ten Year Notes (ZN_F) Resumes HigherShort Term Elliott Wave structure in 10 Year Notes (ZN_F) suggests the pullback to 129.28 ended wave IV. The note has resumed higher in wave V. The internal subdivision of wave V is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 129.28, wave 1 ended at 131.19 and wave 2 ended at 130.26. Internal of wave 2. The Note has resumed higher and broke above wave 1 at 131.19. This suggests the next leg higher in wave 3 has started. Near term, while pullback stays above 130.24 in the first degree, and more importantly above 129.28, expect the Notes to extend higher. We don’t like selling the Note, and expect buyers to appear once wave ((ii)) pullback is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing. *Please note that market opened up with a gap*
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by Elliottwave-Forecast
US 10 year yield forecast. Heading to 0?This is an update to previous ideas charted at New Years 2019. The 10 year yield has been following the path of lower yields in a lock step fashion, however the pace of declining yields is concerning. The 3 day looks like Niagara Falls Where do we go from here? Currently, the 10 yr yield is in the middle of the 1 (1.32%) and .786 (1.734%) retrenchment lines with a biased towards heading to 1.32. Two possibilities. 1) Yield punches right through 1.32% and set set new lows. 2) More likely in my view: "China/Trade" news comes along just in time to see yields reach or even briefly penetrate 1.32%, forming a triple bottom reversal, before reversing and heading back up towards 1.73% From here, yields could see a rejection from 1.32% and begin heading back towards 1.734%. RSI is oversold, also suggesting a reversal could come soon. However, said reversal will be fleeting. Sometime by or before reaching 1.734% I would expect yields to run out of steam and resume their decline before testing 1.32% and ultimately breaking lower. There is no such this as a quadruple bottom/top so in this scenario, the yield will crash below 1.32% and 0% becomes a very real possibility in the next 12 months. How does this tie into mortgage rates? The 10 year is a good general barometer for interest rates but Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), while improving (rates dropping) the rate of improvement has been slower than what we would expect given the halving of treasury yield in just 9 short months.
TVC:US10YShort
by jdharward
US 10 YR - Lower yields to come in 2019 and beyondLooks like loan officers will be selling 2 and 3 percent fixed mortgages before long. ;) This is an update to my previous idea: If you're a fan of Fibonacci, then you're already well aware of the significance of the 1.618 and .618 lines. If you're not. Here's a super simple version. .618 retrace is the most likely level to see a "bounce" if the overall trend is higher. However, If .618 fails to hold, it's bearish and the next level of support is .786 followed by 1.0 representing a full retrace with new lower lows possible. So, if the 10 year yield is to "bounce" and start heading higher, it basically has to do it here and now... But that's probably not going to happen this time. Globally, central banks of the world are already loosening. China and Europe leading the way. The US economy is clearly showing signs of slowing. Tariffs, combined with record rain have devastated the Midwest farming region. (Expect higher food prices in 2020). A rising dollar at a time where exports are desired more than ever, etc. Ultimately, i expect the 10 yr yield to test the previous low of 1.32 we saw following the passage of Brexit. And we could get there quick. Next 4-6 months or "before 2020" if that's easier.
TVC:US10YShort
by jdharward
Support Cracked Wide Open on the US 10YHere we are witnessing the minimum target from a ABC perspective since the January highs at 2.799%. This sequence from here on should be viewed as corrective and will be a shallow retrace in the broader trend. There is little support here so the key levels to watch in play remain 2.286%. We may see some choppy waters here, however, the potential to retrace as low as 2.088% remains live. Best of luck all those positioning for the week.
TVC:US10YShort
by ridethepig
Yep, lower mortgage rates for 201910 year yield is dropping with a quickness to match only stock sell-offs. Might be a good time to look at some REITS? Rates look to me like they will decline for the next 2-3 years. Yields hit .382 fib support today and bounced very slightly higher. News of the end of the Gov shut down could provide the catalyst needed to send yields back to .236 level (2.80%), especially if combined with "favorable" "CHINA!" news. Such a bounce will be temporary and yields will continue to drop lower. Zoom out and you can see we're on a 35+ year trend of lowering rates. Next support fib is 2.29 followed by a more significant one at 2.06. Strongest support at 1.75 where we have fib, gann fan and support/resistance trends all converging.
TVC:US10Y
by jdharward
2
Yields and Equities at critical junctureTop black line is the major resistance line. If yields break this, the US is majorly fucked and signals an end to "cheap money" at a time with debts and unfunded liabilities at all time highs. Yellow line is the support line of the 37+ year channel going back to the early 1980s. Red line is the more recent resistance line which began in June 2007 at the eve of the GFC. The election of Trump provided the catalyst required to push yields above this resistance line. A year later, the 2017 tax cuts and more specifically, deficit spending provided the catalyst needed to push yields to firmly break out of this pattern and test the long term resistance. Tax reform resulted in nearly year long sugar high in equities and rising interest rates for all. Resistance proved too strong, for now. What to expect going forward: In any event, long term yield will likely only go lower. Yields breaching the long term black line, at a time of all time high debt, means much pain and could even lead to war, so will likely be avoided at all cost. The end game is zero and negative. Currently, yields are resting more or less, exactly at the .786 fib support line; currently 2.85%. As support lines go, this one is pretty weak and won't need much of a catalyst to break and send yields lower to 2.52% What could send yields back up to test 3.26? An announcement of a trade deal and/or removal or decrease in tariffs could provide the catalyst needed to send yields back to 3.26 and possibly breach black line of death. This would be bad long term and any such deal will likely prove short lived. The US and China seem to be on an unstoppable path to eventual conflict/war. More likely, no deal is reached and trade relations continue to deteriorate sending both equities and yields lower. Or, such a deal is short lived and fails. 10 year reaches 2.52% and from here has an opportunity to crash straight to 2.07% or bounce back to 2.80-2.85 before ultimately going down to 2.07% (and below) anyways. Sorry. In short, no matter how one looks at it, yields are either going to continue their 37+ year trend LOWER or we're going to break that black line of death and then the US will REALLY begin to feel the (debt) squeeze. RSI suggest we will eventually test that black resistance line, at some point in the future.
TVC:US10Y
by jdharward
US 10y Bond1) Due to the zig-zag nature of the yield values, historically, it seems proper to use Elliott-waves. 2) There was a rate-hike environment in the past which seems similar to the current price action. Coincidentally the wave 5 drop corresponds to the year 2020; 2020 is the year many talking heads are calling for a US recession. 3) In recent years bonds and stocks have rallied in tandem, however, which means a recession isn't necessarily the only way to arrive at the 5th wave. A powerful US economy and continuation of recent co-variance could also push yields lower. 4) I do not believe the well-establish downward trend will be broken, and lower yields are likely to exist post 2020.
TVC:US10YLong
by HyerQuality
Yields continue breaking higher as expected=> Yields are creeping higher one more time and we are starting to see major moves across equity markets as a result. => Smart money is afraid of inflation returning and therefore selling bonds is the go-to. This is causing yields to rise and because we are reaching the end of the road on QE, Central banks won't be buying bonds anymore and want to diminish their positions in order to clear up the balance sheets. => Whitehouse needs are no longer going to be met by the FED so investors will have to supply the money and at 3% they are not very willing. => Expecting fireworks across the board for this Quarter with all eyes on 3.22 => As you all know, higher yields will compete with equity returns making bonds on the longer end more attractive .... => Good luck all those tracking the US 10 year
TVC:US10Y
by ridethepig
5