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10yrnote

TNX - 10Yr Yield /'Come on IN Equity Dip Buyers"The waters warm - just fine and we assure you there are no predatory creatures lurking about. Please ignore the Trend. Our assumptions include: The Herd is always Correct. CNCB and Lacy Hunt are "Pitch Perfect". Rates are heading lower, towards ZERO. TLT's hiccup this morning is nothing, simply a small bump on the road until 172. Debt doesn't matter, It's in the "Future" - we never subscribe to the idea of "Back to the Future" as our overlords are merely us from the Future... We are cocksure confident - "This is It~!" No more down, only up, the SELL is Over. No one would dare SELL Bonds here with Negative Real Returns. No one would demand higher rates, ever... regardless of the insurmountable DEBT Load. The FED won't' permit the Bond Vigilantes to Price in Inflation again as it is - wait for it... "TRANSitory. Yeah, naw, wrong again desperados. Looking rather forward to the NEXT SELL in TLT. - HK
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
4
TNX - 10Yr Yield largest SELL Side Offer since Mid-FebruaryPricing in "Inflation" has been a series of rapid events for Price. Yields began the highest velocity spike in History during the January to April adjustment. Bond Sellers have begun to increase their Sell. Retail is now 83% Short against the NQ ES YM... ahead of the most important Week we have had in Months, Since February. TNX has run-up to its -.236, a Catalyst Level. Duress in Bonds will further increase VX in Equities, both directions as there are only a limited number of Capital Pools. Money will flow where the returns can develop: CASH METALS COMMODITIES BONDS STOCKS REAL ESTATE Crypto (Unregulated Illusory Capital) Choose wisely, this cuts both ways. It is remarkable how few Bond Holders did not envision this possibility. The engrained mindset becomes one of defiance at any cost to preserve the Cult's Dogma. The Bond Market within the United States is ever so slowly being destroyed, its destruction is accelerating for reasons we have outlined repeatedly. Trade Safe out there, disruptions are simply beginning. - HK
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
12
10 Year Note Yield - 2%+ AheadPCE Data Friday rose to a 30 Year High for August 2021. Record levels at a year over year scale - with the FED remarking "Inflation remains frustratingly high". The Prior peak in 10 Year Note Yields provided the bottom for the ES (SPY, SPX, S&P500) @ 1.765. Yields have formed a Bull Flag in which Price should begin to Chop and complete for the Breakout of the pattern. Price objectives above are the prior highs @ 1.765 followed by an extension to 2.12 - 2.25%. This level should provide the lows for the Indices, they may well reach their Objective lows on the Break of 2% with the final push lower between 200 & 400SMAs. Patience will provide entry for the Final Long - 5/5 on the larger Daily TF. Bonds are simply pricing in - "Inflation" as we indicated would arrive in September/October. US Debt is seeing a broadening of concerns among Market Participants while Inflation begins to wreak havoc on Consumers. Supply shortages will continue for the foreseeable future, ultimately the shortages will create a large waterfall decline in 2022 of 50-70% as a complete loss of confidence in Arrangements concludes. Wall Street will seek entry for the next SELL as the 10Yr Note Yield pullback and ranges within the Bull Flag for Yields. * The Equity Markets remain a "Funding Mechanism" until they are not. 5/5 will be a large move for 2022 off the approaching Lows.
TVC:US10YShort
by HK_L61
8