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20% Interest Rates Could Crash The Market 98%It’s been a while since I last posted, but I’ve got a good reason to start again. If you take a close look at the charts in this video, you'll notice the potential for a significant market decline across the board. By analyzing the Dow Jones and interest rates together, it becomes evident that we are nearing this point. I'm not influenced by news or personal biases—I just prefer not to invest when the market is in this state. Whether it’s stocks, precious metals, or crypto, I believe it’s wise to be cautious when these signals appear. The long-term interest rate chart gives me strong reasons to believe we could see a historic drop in asset prices. Basic concepts like mean reversion and resistance turning into support are some of the key factors that back my AriasWave analysis. Stay tuned for more updates now that I’m back to sharing new ideas.
TVC:TNX
by AriasWave
2
Bitcoin - Another sign that Fed credibility is waning.A Sick Feeling in the Belly of the Yield Curve Another sign that Fed credibility is waning. The socioeconomic point of view is that, as the Supercycle bear market develops, central banks will lose their mantle as being omnipotent directors of markets. Whereas in the bull market, central bankers like Alan “the Maestro” Greenspan were lauded because positive social mood was driving the stock market higher, in the bear market central bankers will be vilified as negative social mood causes a downtrend in stock prices. Yesterday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sought to reassure Americans that the series of interest rate hikes that the central bank is embarking on would not tip the U.S. economy into recession. The bond market promptly ignored those soothing words and the yield curve flattened. A flattening yield curve, whereby the positive gap between short-dated bonds and long-dated bonds is narrowing, is a sign that the market is anticipating slower economic growth. When the yield curve inverts, with long-dated yields below short-dated, it has historically been a signal that an economic recession is on the horizon. That historical relationship is most generally related to the yield spread between 2-year yields and 10-year yields, and that yield curve has been flattening over the past year from 1.50% to around 0.20% where it is currently hovering. So, not quite inverted yet, but trending in that direction. However, in the so-called belly of the yield curve, the area between 5 and 10-year maturity, the message is already here. The chart below shows that the yield spread between 5 and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields has declined precipitously over the last year and, yesterday, turned negative. This yield curve inversion is a clue that a 2-yr /10-yr (2s 10s in industry vernacular) inversion is probably on its way. Despite what the Fed says, a beast of a recession may be approaching. U.S. Treasury 10-Year Yield Minus 5-Year Yield
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ferGOD
307
Chart Analysis of 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Based on current chart patterns and Elliott Wave Theory, it appears we are in Wave 4 of a higher-degree cycle for the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yields. Wave 4 is typically a corrective phase following a strong trending Wave 3, suggesting that this phase may involve consolidation or retracement. Key Levels to Watch: 38% Retracement (Lower Orange Line) : If yields bottom near this retracement level, it may indicate a potential support zone where Wave 4 could complete its correction. 61% Retracement (Upper Orange Line) : Should the yields find support at the 38% level, they might subsequently target the 61% retracement level of Wave 3, suggesting a potential upward move. Market Implications : If the bond yields continue to rise and reach these retracement levels, we could witness a significant bearish trend in the broader market. However, it's crucial to recognize that market conditions are dynamic and can affect these projections. Disclaimer : This analysis is based on the current technical chart patterns and Elliott Wave Theory. Market conditions are subject to change, and unforeseen factors can impact outcomes. Therefore, it's essential to stay informed and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Regards
TVC:US10Y
by imkhushal
1
FOMC Showdown Poised to Ignite a Surge in Yield SpreadsWith inflation finally cooling and the Fed signaling rate cuts, it seems relief is on the horizon—until you look at the job market. As recession risks grow and Treasury yields falter, a steepening yield curve presents a compelling opportunity. Positioning in the yield curve ahead of the FOMC meeting offers a more measured way to navigate the uncertainty. COOLING CPI SIGNALS GREEN LIGHT FOR RATE CUTS This week’s inflation report showed headline CPI cooling to 2.5%, the lowest since February 2021. With this release, inflation has finally fallen decisively below the stubborn 3% mark and is now just 0.5% above the Fed’s target range. PCE inflation reflects similar levels, likely giving the Fed the signal to start cutting rates. JOB MARKET REPRESENTS MATERIAL RECESSION RISKS Recent job market data suggests it may be too soon to declare a soft landing. The labor market is significantly weakening, and with household savings dwindling and credit delinquencies increasing, conditions may worsen before improving. U.S. economic data from the past week indicates that the labor market is in a precarious situation. The August JOLTS report showed job openings dropping to their lowest since early 2021, reflecting decreased labor demand, while unemployment edged up slightly. Additionally, the August jobs report revealed a modest gain of 142,000 non-farm jobs, falling short of expectations, with downward revision for July bringing those figures down to just 89,000. As covered by Mint Finance previously a recession is likely to lead to a sharp steepening of the yield curve. We covered average levels of the yield spread at the start of recessions in detail previously, but in summary with the current 10Y-2Y spreads at 15 basis points, there may be up to 85 basis points of further upside in the spread. TREASURY YIELD PERFORMANCE Despite a short recovery following the ominous jobs report on 2/August, Treasury yields have continued to decline. Unsurprisingly, short-dated treasuries have underperformed as 2Y yields are 27 basis points lower, while 30Y yields have only declined by 12 basis points and 10Y by 15 basis points. Overlaying yield performance with economic releases, the largest impact on yields over the last few months has been from FOMC releases and non-farm payrolls while performance around CPI releases has been mixed. Potentially suggesting traders are more concerned about recession risk than moderating inflation. OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER FOMC MEETING Source: CME FedWatch FedWatch currently suggests that a 25 basis point rate cut is more likely in the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled on September 17/18. However, probabilities of a 50 basis point rate cut are also relatively high at 43%. Source: CME FedWatch While the odds of a 25 basis point cut have remained in majority, the 50 basis point cut has been uncertain with probability shifting over the past week. FOMC meetings have driven a rally in yield spreads over the past year. With FOMC meeting slated for next week, it is interesting to note that performance in yield spread prior to meetings has been more compelling than performance post-FOMC meeting. Over the last 5 meetings, pre-FOMC meetings, the 10Y-2Y spread has increased by 4 basis points. Performance is even more compelling in the 30Y-2Y spread which has increased by an average of 13 basis points. AUCTION DEMAND FAVORS 10Y Recent auction for 10Y treasuries indicated strong demand with a bid/cover ratio of 2.64, which is higher than the average over the last 10 auctions of 2.45. Contrastingly, the 30Y auction was less positive with a bid/cover ratio of 2.38, below the average of 2.42. 2Y auction was sharply weaker with a bid/cover of 2.65 compared to average of 2.94. Auction uptake suggests higher demand for 10Y treasuries than 30Y treasuries and fading demand for near-term 2Y treasuries. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Recent economic data has made an upcoming rate cut nearly certain. However, the size of the cut remains unclear. CME FedWatch currently indicates a 42% probability of a larger 50-basis-point cut, driven by the recent CPI report and weak jobs data. With rising recession risks, the Fed might opt for a larger rate cut. However, if they choose a moderate 25-basis-point cut, market sentiment could stabilize. Historically, yield spreads around FOMC meetings suggest that positioning before the meetings tends to be more advantageous than after. This is especially relevant now, as moderating sentiment from a 25-basis-point cut could trigger a temporary reversal in yield spreads. Considering the underperformance of the 10Y-2Y spread in September and increased auction demand for 10-year Treasuries, a long position in the 10Y-2Y spread may be the most favorable strategy for gaining exposure to the steepening yield curve. Investors can express views on the yield curve using CME Yield Futures through a long position in 10Y yield futures and a short position in 2Y yield futures. CME Yield Futures are quoted directly in yield with a 1 basis point change representing USD 10 in one lot of Yield Future contract. This makes spread calculations trivial with a 1 basis point change in spread representing PnL of USD 10. The individual margin requirements for 2Y and 10Y Yield futures are USD 330 and USD 320, respectively. However, with CME’s 50% margin offset for the spread, the required margin drops to USD 325 as of September 13, making this trade even more compelling. A hypothetical trade setup offering a reward to risk ratio of 1.46x is provided below: Entry: 14.2 basis points Target: 35 basis points Stop Loss: 0 basis point Profit at Target: USD 208 (20.8 basis points x 10) Loss at Stop: USD 142 (14.2 basis points x 10) Reward to Risk: 1.46x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Gold vs the 10yr yieldThis is a ratio chart. Gold is on top 10 year Yield is on bottom in the middle you can see the ratio between gold prices and the 10yr yield rising and falling. As you can tell, when the ratio reaches a low, gold prices tend to rise and yields tend to fall. Vice/versa when the ratio is at a high, Gold prices tend to fall, and yields tend to rise. Of course the ratio chart is not "CAUSING" the prices to rise or fall. In my humble opinion, we are relatively close to the long term low point on the ratio chart. Meaning that either gold prices should rise and or yields should fall, and or both maybe... Barrons has recently published a piece saying that rising supply of gold could contribute to prices ending the year around 2100. usd This would be a drop in price, and doesn't fit in with my narrative. It might be interesting to see how this ratio plays out, and perhaps it will help you form a bias for your next Gold trade!
AMEX:GLDLong
by Sacyourking
US10Y - US Ten Year Yields WeeklySome weekly consolidation; Possible yields haven't topped yet. These inflection points lead to weekly and monthly trend changes which I will be looking for a potential spike as momentum shifts back down and rates test the keltner channel mid or upper line. There is also a possibility that rates breakout of the resistance (trend change) of this bullish leg from 2020. The Red line on the keltner channel oscillator at the bottom. I expect more black swan events to occur as chaos ramps up in the next year.
TVC:US10Y
by Mikhiavelli
US treausires are showing bullish patternTreasuries are trying to recover after making some nice and deep pullback in last few months as FED decided to wait on more economic data before they may finally cut rates. The pattern on 10 year US notes is looking bullish here after that impulse up since Novemeber, seen as wave (A), so obviously this tells us in which direction market can move after a retracement. Probably up! Well, this retracement in three waves is already visible on the charts below, so speculators can be positioned for more upside into wave (C) in months ahead, especially if FED is really going to cut rates this year, and if maybe NFP data finally disappoints this Friday. In such case, I think metals can explode, while the dollar sells off. Speculation for BOJ rate change in March and possibly"hawkish" ECB tomorrow (compared to FED) can help the dollar to be sold IMO. The only concern is risk-off, but bearish dollar/ bullish stocks correlation hasn't been there for a while anyway. Hope you love the analysis. GH
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by ew-forecast
$VGIT and 10-yr yield relationshipThe NASDAQ:VGIT ETF movement seems to be inversely proportional to the 10-yr US bond yield Typically as the yield increases, the bond price would also decrease. Even though VGIT has an attractive yield (up to 6% p.a.) with monthly dividends, this requires at least 1-year holding period. Moreover, there are expectations of a Fed rate cut in 2024. While this may push the price higher, the estimated upside seems to be only +8% of my entry price (around the end-2019 levels). On the other hand, looking at the red trend lines, prices may trade sideways within the triangle for a few months thus limiting capital upsides and I will be stuck to collecting monthly dividends. It's a decent return just that I already have a different investment account with similar risk appetite and similar yield. So with the improving equity market condition, perhaps it's time to move from VGIT to the equity market with better capital upside? From Reuters: This recovery will hold, according to median forecasts from a Dec. 7-12 Reuters poll of 50 bond strategists, mostly from sell-side firms, who said yields will only reach 4.25% by end-February though will likely stay volatile in the interim. The 10-year yield will then fall to 4.10% by end-May, before hitting 3.88% in 12 months, lower than the 4.30% and 4.00%, respectively, expected in a November poll but considerably higher than surveys conducted earlier this year.
NASDAQ:VGITShort
by Dynamiac
Relationship between US 10yr yield & the DXYAs traders look for signals on potential moves in the FX market, a frequent question I receive is regarding the relationship between the 10yr yield and the DXY. US 10-Year Treasury Yield: The US 10-year Treasury yield represents the interest rate on the 10-year government bonds issued by the United States. It is considered a benchmark for long-term interest rates and is often used as a reference for borrowing costs across the economy. This yield is influenced by various factors, including inflation expectations, economic growth, and monetary policy. US Dollar Index (DXY): The US Dollar Index, or DXY, measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of major foreign currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. It provides a snapshot of the US dollar's strength or weakness relative to these currencies. Relationship of US 10yr yield & DXY The US 10-year yield and the DXY have a relatively strong positive relationship. Increases in the yield on 10-year Treasuries have the tendency to draw capital into the US bond market because investors find US government bonds more attractive with higher yields. Because of the increasing demand for the US dollar to buy these bonds, the dollar gains strength leading to a rise in the DXY. As with any relationship between financial instruments, it is seldom 100% positively correlated given that there are a variety of factors, including inflation expectations, economic growth conditions, market sentiment, and central bank monetary policy.
TVC:US10Y
by JinDao_Tai
US 10 Year Treasury Bonds - TOP Call Coming! (For now) $TNXWhat Major Event will occur to force thirst for US and G20 Treasury Bonds? It's happening soon. I wish I had a crystal ball to say what will cause it, but it'll happen. We're almost there IMO 5.19-5.25% topline target - then I hope in whatever this Market or world event will force yields to go back down to 3.19-3.25% Before eventually continuing back up in the next major World event to create Inflation AKA Wave 2 Inflation
TVC:US10YLong
by acemoneypicks
xauusd daily updatei have two plan for today .. one is to share from current price . 2nd one is selling from 1920 .bia is selling btw ...Gold (XAU/USD) Bulls Remain Cautious Following Sticky US CPI. Retest of Recent Lows Grow More Appealing. The Technicals on Gold Remain Conflicted. A Golden Cross Pattern Printed in the Asian Session and a Death Cross Pattern Forming Just Another Sign of the Current Indecision at Play. IG Client Sentiment Shows that Retail Traders are Overwhelmingly Long on Gold Which Could Hint at Further Downside Ahead.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Ttrade-With-Logic
It might be the right time to buy 10 year TreasuriesI see a big opportunity on treasuries with the rates that the treasauries are trading at. Why? Inflation has been going down consistently from 9.1% to 4% and the PPI (which is the Producer Price Index) from 11.1% to 1.1%. These indicators usually draw near the core CPI which has been sticky above 5% and has been the aim for the FED. Rents and some services have been raised this year and are not going down or stabilizing 12 year compared until next year. There is a lag effect in the economy regarding the rate hikes of about 12 to 18 months and we are still to see many of the effects noting that they have been restrictive for just 9 months. Another nice data is the base, 12 month old prices. May and June are the top of the prices from last year due to the supply chain issues and the Russia Ucranie war. Oil went up to 130 dollar a barrel and most of commodities topped last year. So the CPI next week should be a 14 year high real yield high when a 3.2 to 3.5% print on the CPI should show more inflation loosening. Economy is stil in a tight spot, with a strong labor market which made the last rate decisión of the FED a prediction of two more rate hikes this year. Eventhough since then 2 voting members have seen the posible mistake of keep hiking and have said that they should still see the effects of the 500 rate increase and not hike more for at least this year. This alone should drive a big buy througout the curve. Economy is not that strong to see a 14 year high in real yield for a 10 year high with much analysts, including the FED are expecting at least a mild recesión. So rates are very high taking into account the análisis made. A 3.50% on the 10 year and a 4.30% on the 2 year are the aims. But the market has been frightened and selling due to the losses they took from anticipating this move too early. The recent debt limit helped a lot recently for those losses, but its an issue that has been dealt with. A frightened market ussually is an opportunity and I think this is one of them. We still need to see the other 7 memebers of the FED agree, but in an educated guess the next week CPI data must do the job.
TVC:US02YLong
by acrispino
1