Bond Yields Birds Eye View - General OverviewThis looks like a possible bottom in the bond yields aka interest rates.
Yet another ending diagonal.
Waiting for a couple more confirmatory waves to form before I post an update.
10yryields
US 10-year yield could retest former low of 1.34 pctThere is a map of a consolidation for US 10-year yield.
The range is quite volatile between 1.50 and 2.00.
The wave B should complete with a drop to the 1.50 and then wave C could unfold up to 2.00.
After that the drop should resume to retest 1.34.
Reinversion of Sovereign Debt Yield Curve (10YR-03MO)10's minus 03 Mo's Reinversion of Sovereign Debt Yield Curve
19:34:22 (UTC)
Thu Jan 30, 2020
Gold Indication of Market Retrace :: 10YR Yield and S&P 500This post was encouraged because of the Economic Forum being held in Davos, Switzerland.
The last 3 years (roughly since mid 2017) contained talk around trade war. This has caused chaos within the markets. We have moved up and down 1000's of points with no specific direction.
It seems that September 2019 has shown the true colors of the market sediment. We can identify the percent returns of the 10YR yield, gold and S&P 500 from this date. Things have not been adding up and has been blurred by the DOW hitting new highs every other week, misleading investors.
Nobody is saying to liquidate but a rotation of wealth is underplay. I do believe that this is a rotation of wealth that is not our normal move into commodities/metals but potentially something larger.
Impeachment trial proceeds today during the start of the Economic Forum. Is this to sway attention towards Davos? We will never specifically know until everything pans out.
The chart speaks for itself with presenting the data.
I would like to hear anyone's thoughts, ideas and/or theories.
Further Easing may be required means possible lower yields TLT should move up with yields going down from monetary policy
Elliott Wave View: Ten Year Notes (ZN_F) Resumes HigherShort Term Elliott Wave structure in 10 Year Notes (ZN_F) suggests the pullback to 129.28 ended wave IV. The note has resumed higher in wave V. The internal subdivision of wave V is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 129.28, wave 1 ended at 131.19 and wave 2 ended at 130.26. Internal of wave 2.
The Note has resumed higher and broke above wave 1 at 131.19. This suggests the next leg higher in wave 3 has started. Near term, while pullback stays above 130.24 in the first degree, and more importantly above 129.28, expect the Notes to extend higher. We don’t like selling the Note, and expect buyers to appear once wave ((ii)) pullback is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing.
*Please note that market opened up with a gap*
US 10Yr Decision TimeIf you aren't following this chart you are doing it wrong, the proverbial canary in the coal mine #Study #TradingEducation #Forex #Dollar
TNX study using Parabolic SAR & 40MA makes trading SPX look easyHigher highs not impossible in following months here's why. In this Parabolic SAR pattern match I'm interested in the months subsequent to a match when yield closes first time below average (marked by red verticals). It's been a good time to buy the months after, and for S&P to go on & make new highs. NOT ADVICE DYOR.
NOTE THE CORRECTION ON CHART BELOW where second A starts.
I HAD A FORECAST FOR THE LOW IN THE 10YR OF 2377 TODAY LOW IS 2377 WAS RISK ON AGAIN FOR SP AND IWM AND NOW BANKS
Bonds Being Bearish? Long Side potential Trade at Trend LineThe rate of Bonds is at a very interesting place as highlighted in the chart! In depth exploration in the video below:
youtu.be
Long term 10 yearThe 10 year yield is currently hovering around the 3.2 to 3.3% support levels. I expect wave 5 to push past these levels and reach up to 3.75-3.80% in yield by August 2019 (or sooner). At that point I expect a new round of QE from the Fed.
Flight to safety driving gold higher, yields lower and USD upAs the stock market starts to stumble, people look for safe places like Bonds, all those bond purchases drives the USD higher since you need to buy them in USD so it creates greater demand, this increase in USD would normally be bad for Gold. But Gold is actually going up right now since it is safe haven asset, that demand is off setting the negative effects of the USD, it has finally uncoupled the 2, the gold rally might finally be there.
10 Year Bond & Mortgage Rates to Decline for Several Years?Using Cycle Analysis we can see multiple Intermediate Cycle Lows (ICL) of about 4 to 5 years in duration with the next one due in the second half of 2020. The next event that will signal the direction of rates is if the 10 YR Bond breaks the upward cycle trend line from the last ICL. This could occur two ways: the bond moves sideways and breaks the trendline in the next several months, or a sharp decrease pierces the trend line. Either way, this signals a failed daily cycle and the move into the next ICL has begun. The final destination could be either at 2.00 which would be equal to the left shoulder of the head and shoulders pattern, or even lower if the pattern forms a triple bottom.
