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ARIASWAVE - MARKET UPDATE - You Don't Know What You Don't Know..As the world changes, I aim to provide truth-seekers with the knowledge to prepare for what's ahead. With my unique set of skills, I've developed a system for making accurate market predictions, which I share in this latest AriasWave market update. While the Dow Jones is just one piece of the puzzle, I draw on years of experience to make informed assumptions about where the markets are headed. Despite the impending collapse, I see opportunities for those willing to understand my work and the patterns I've identified. While I no longer teach AriasWave, I continue to refine my skills and advance my understanding of market waves. The potential for this approach will become increasingly clear over time. Many have predicted a massive crypto rally and recession for 2023 that likely won't happen. Through me and my insights into the waves, you'll gain a unique perspective and understanding of our uncertain world.
COINBASE:XLMUSD
by AriasWave
6
Inverted Yield Curve Starts in 2023 - Explained When the yield of the 3-month bond is higher than the 30-year bond yield, this is known as an inverted yield curve. It is a rare and unusual occurrence and we are seeing this today. This signals a potential economic recession in the future. An inverted yield curve suggests that investors have a pessimistic outlook for the future of the economy. They are willing to accept lower yields on long-term bonds because they anticipate a slowdown in economic growth. In contrast, they demand higher yields on short-term bonds because they expect the central bank to raise interest rates in response to inflationary pressures. An inverted yield curve can lead to a decrease in borrowing and lending activity, as it can make it more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow money. This can result in a reduction in economic growth and can eventually lead to a recession. Some reference for traders: Micro Treasury Yields & Its Minimum Fluctuation Micro 2-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Micro 5-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 5YY 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Micro 10-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Micro 30-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 30Y 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:30Y1!Long
by konhow
AW BOND YIELD\RATE RISE ANALYSIS - Something Big is Coming...This latest count for the 10 YR suggests that interest rates are close to a top and whatever comes next will be significant. This lines up with my Dow Jones analysis which suggests that we are looking for one more all-time-high before we see the top. I think the markets will continue to oscillate in a large range over the next several years which will be a result of these types of movements. I believe that there are certain times during these cutting and raising cycles that will dramatically increase asset prices and see inflation see-saw. Another factor here will be the amount of currency units that are pumped into the system during these times. It seems as though when the FED tightens, they still appear to be expanding their balance sheet effectively pumping the gas and brakes simultaneously. In my opinion, this could potentially lead to hyperinflation down the road which may kick off once this expanding 5-Wave move finally ends. According to the AriasWave methodology, the historical CPI chart also supports the hyperinflation theory, but it could still be a while before we see any signs. Some analysts suggest that we are actually seeing deflation, but I don't know whether or not that is true as there could be periods of both during these the next few cycles. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
TVC:TNX
by AriasWave
AW 10Y Bond Yields - The Large Pullback Ahead Means Recession...In this video I talk about the bigger picture going back to 1150AD and how I have always anticipated this move up in rates. See down below all videos that are related to this idea. We are in a correction phase of Wave 2 in Bond Yields. This type of expansion means that they are preparing themselves for a recession even though they don't mention it. They know. The FED must always keep the public distracted with the inflation narrative. The truth is that they have to keep the party going therefore they will use manipulated data to justify their actions. This is all done through compartmentalization which is used by governments and the military industrial complex. This is also done to the public to make sure you are happy even though you are losing everything. Sound familiar? The truth is they have been slowly preparing you for the future. Don't think that it's coming because it's been here the whole time. #BoilingFrog. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
TVC:TNXLong
by AriasWave
10-Year Treasury Yield Ready to Extend Advance to 2022 Highs?The 10-year Treasury yield has been rising since the end of January in the aftermath of a Bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Now, prices are approaching the December high at 3.905 after confirming a breakout above a falling trendline from October. Meanwhile, a bullish Golden Cross is set to form between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages, further offering an upside technical bias. Confirming a breakout above the December high exposes the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 4.118 towards the 2022 peak at 4.335. US10Y
TVC:US10YLong
by QM_Dubrovsky
1
10yr Yield bullish setup. One of the traders in the Forex Analytix community (Grasshopper) pointed out that the 10yr Yields are developing an inverted head and shoulder pattern which may lead (on a breakout) to higher yields near term. Considering a false breakdown happened last week on January 19th below horizontal support, this builds the case that was the head. A break of the neckline at 3.53% could lead to a rise towards the 3.80 in the coming weeks. A rise in yields could be a warning sign for US Dollar bears too.
TVC:US10YLong
by ForexAnalytix
1
AW Bitcoin Analysis - The Macro View Aligns with the Waves...In this video I explain why I believe the waves line up with the macro thesis. Short term; the waves are an amazing tool especially when you use AriasWave for analysis. The bigger picture though, has its own list of fundamental reasoning behind it. The point is that as I go through the interest rate chart alongside the Bitcoin chart, it only takes a bit of logic to see what is happening here. Bitcoin is a risk asset and during times of increasing inflationary pressures built up over 40+ years of stimulus, eventually the problem becomes too much to bear. The FED and other central banks are stuck between a rock and a hard place when it comes to appeasing investors. It has become too difficult to make everyone happy all in one go, not that they really ever cared about Main Street. I always like to use the boiling frog analogy, it's only when things get really bad that everyone starts to take notice. Unless you have been living under a rock it's not hard to see that constantly depreciating your currency eventually starts to affect the whole world. As a result, the general population find themselves under immense financial pressures and have less dry powder to invest in these risky assets. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.*** Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
by AriasWave
DXY |US10Y |T-NOTE BOND |DECRYPTERS HI people welcome to Decrypters So We have 3 charts DXY , US10Y & T-NOTE BOND THE LINK BETWEEN 3 CHARTS IS VERY BASIC Lets Discuss BONDS first The Bonds are About to Decrease in value Now bonds consist of 3 things 1-Face value (Principal Investment) 2-Maturity ( Pay back time, lets say 5 yrs ) 3-Copoun rate ( Interest on Face value, lets say 7 % ) The interest on coupon will be 7% per year for 5 years At where bond will be Mature. Now there is a Basic rule of Supply & Demand of Economics if a Bond prices fall the yield will Rise , Which Also means USD will be strengthen Why This Happens ? Simple , Because Govs is willing to pay High for less Bond value , Meaning An investor can get higher yields By paying less bond prices This Also may "INDICATES" The direction of economy and investors confidence which Is key for interest Rates
ICEUS:DXY
by DECRYPTERS
IEF ShortTo begin, I am not a Seasoned Trader; I use this blog for: 1. Record keeping; & 2. Formalizing my thoughts a. If I can't explain simply here, I shldn't engage To begin, my Rules of Engagement ( RoE ) to identify an upside of +3 to 1 Risk to Reward ( “R/R” ); in this case it may yield a 3.1- 3.94 R/R. • Asset | IEF ( iShares 7-20 Year US Gov’t Bond ) • Type | Equity o Alt. Type 1 | Option • Position | Short • Entry | $ 100.46 • Stop Loss ( SL ) | $ 102.05 • Bring SL to Zero | n/a • Target | $ 94.19(-) • Exp. Time Horizon | ~ x2 FED meetings so Mar-end • Allocation | 5.00% • R/R | 3.1- 3.94(+) To begin, I will highlight the reasons why I am apprehensive about the trade ( the Con’s ) & finish up with the reasons why I’m interested in the position ( the Pro’s ). The issues / thoughts that make me uneasy ( the Con’s ) are: • I structured it to allow for further moderate appreciation o I “may” miss hitting the top but I have 1.5 wk’s for that too play out Now, the reasons I am interested in this position ( the Pro’s ): • In my blog, you can see the appendix whereby the 10Y can hover lower than the Fed Funds Rate (Upper) by 100 bps before it turns; we are there now • The FED is either going to raise (25 – 50 bps) or stay fixed in 1.5 wk’s o I believe they will raise; thus pushing the market down • Although the date range for the 10Yr Yield goes further, I am playing with the IEF (ETF) so only goes back to July 2002. Nevertheless, that posts a 1.95 standard deviated move which I’ll see as ~2 if it hits my entry & thus happy with that To summarize, the Tea Leaves & history is telling me to short albeit I may miss it. Financial Disclaimer | To reiterate, I’m not a Financial Advisor. If you engage based on the contents herein, you will lose money. If you interpret that mean by doing the opposite you will make money, that’s incorrect; you will also lose money. Thanks for your time; I hope you have a lovely day.
NASDAQ:IEFShort
by izogawa_trading
1
Dollar weakness...Commodity StrengthThe great benefit from today's close is the ability to zoom out and see the bigger picture using 6M timeframes. When you zoom out; it allows you to then make meaningful 2023 plans based upon analyzing some of the most important charts. DXY-The above chart is telling me that the dollar is actually quite weak...the breakout in 2015 was not meaningful as it has been in a sideways type market since the breakout. In addition, the 2H 2022 candle is indicating a reversal. Some would agree the 6M looks like a cup & handle formation and I can see that if I tilt my head but it's not one that occurred on a horizontal plane. For me, the lack of thrust on the 2015 breakout; the inability to take out the 2001 high in 2022; along with the 2H 2022 reversal candle is telling me the dollar is about to weaken. Commodities-This chart shows what a meaningful breakout looks like. In addition, it is not showing any signs of weakness nor a reversal type candle. Notice the continued thrust after the 2020 low and after the breakout. This shows the strength commodities have in the medium to longer term timeframes. The thin red line on these charts is the 9 period (or Tenkan Sen). Continually staying above this line and not slicing through it is important. (DXY-Notice the July-Dec 2020 candle...yet another sign of weakness IMO for the dollar after it's 2015 breakout. Commodities-Notice it's distance from that line.) I've already discussed the breakout in yields in previous posts and how interest rates are not coming down anytime soon...Zero interest rate policy or ZIRP is now a thing of the past. So the question you should be asking yourself heading into 2023-If the dollar is weak and commodities are showing medium/long term strength; what industries or areas of the world will have the most growth potential in the coming years; where will money flow given these two charts and the fact that debt will no longer be considered cheap?
TVC:DXY
by Vixtine
2
AW Analysis 2022 Wrap Up Video - Nothing is What it Seems...In this video I give you I try to give you a wrap up of not only 2022 but what that price of recent years means for Cryptos. Please check out the extended video which just goes back and speaks a little more to the US Dollar chart in relation to Crypto. This year has been quite an eye opener in terms of risk assets and also people falling for BS and BS getting exposed. BS has been exposed so much that I thought I would start exposing the BS that is Elliott Wave. Well at least I will prove it moving forward. So many people have been absolutely destroyed my narratives and misinformation and even worse scams and bad exchanges. The truth is that Crypto's were never meant to be centralized but how else would you buy them if we didn't have exchanges. It's a tough situation and one that hasn't quite yet resolved itself in terms of consumer confidence. The US dollar is a really good indicator right now because it tells us how bad the rest of the world is doing in relative terms. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
TVC:DXY
by AriasWave
AW 10YR\INTEREST RATES ANALYSIS - Coiling Up for Higher Rates...In this video I explain my long-term view on 10 Year Bond Yields also known as Interest Rates. If there is one view of mine that has stood the test of time it is my view of this chart. My timing couldn't be better if what I talk about in this video comes to pass. It appears that we have just completed what appears to be the first wave of the upcoming 5-Wave move for Wave E. This pattern has been unfolding since at least 1100AD and it still hasn't completed yet. It provides so many clues as to what is coming in the not-so-distant future. There is no better time to learn how the waves operate in these psychology driven markets. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
TVC:TNX
by AriasWave
XAUUSD, Sell and path aheadThe market has come to the conclusion that the level of 1800 to 1810 is a very strong and important resistance. Because after reaching this range several times, it has faced selling pressure. 1. It has probably completed wave B and will move towards wave C (1727 to 1734). 2. It has reached the corner of the drawn triangle and since it failed to register a higher ceiling, we expect it to break the triangle downwards and start a big fall. 3. In the short term, it is necessary to have a correction, because all indicators and oscillators and other fundamental and technical indicators are at the highest level and need to be corrected. 4. A shock may enter the market in the coming week and everyone will be surprised. According to the available data and forecasts, it is possible that the CPI will appear higher than expected (which will cause a downward shock) and as a result the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise the interest rate again by 0.75%. So according to NFP and PPI data (and possibly CPI), it is still too early for the Federal Reserve to have a plan to reduce the pace of interest rates. Important: According to the fundamental data, the price of gold is very high and should have a deep decline.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by sina76m
6