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10yryields

Dollar weakness...Commodity StrengthThe great benefit from today's close is the ability to zoom out and see the bigger picture using 6M timeframes. When you zoom out; it allows you to then make meaningful 2023 plans based upon analyzing some of the most important charts. DXY-The above chart is telling me that the dollar is actually quite weak...the breakout in 2015 was not meaningful as it has been in a sideways type market since the breakout. In addition, the 2H 2022 candle is indicating a reversal. Some would agree the 6M looks like a cup & handle formation and I can see that if I tilt my head but it's not one that occurred on a horizontal plane. For me, the lack of thrust on the 2015 breakout; the inability to take out the 2001 high in 2022; along with the 2H 2022 reversal candle is telling me the dollar is about to weaken. Commodities-This chart shows what a meaningful breakout looks like. In addition, it is not showing any signs of weakness nor a reversal type candle. Notice the continued thrust after the 2020 low and after the breakout. This shows the strength commodities have in the medium to longer term timeframes. The thin red line on these charts is the 9 period (or Tenkan Sen). Continually staying above this line and not slicing through it is important. (DXY-Notice the July-Dec 2020 candle...yet another sign of weakness IMO for the dollar after it's 2015 breakout. Commodities-Notice it's distance from that line.) I've already discussed the breakout in yields in previous posts and how interest rates are not coming down anytime soon...Zero interest rate policy or ZIRP is now a thing of the past. So the question you should be asking yourself heading into 2023-If the dollar is weak and commodities are showing medium/long term strength; what industries or areas of the world will have the most growth potential in the coming years; where will money flow given these two charts and the fact that debt will no longer be considered cheap?
TVC:DXY
by Vixtine
2
AW Analysis 2022 Wrap Up Video - Nothing is What it Seems...In this video I give you I try to give you a wrap up of not only 2022 but what that price of recent years means for Cryptos. Please check out the extended video which just goes back and speaks a little more to the US Dollar chart in relation to Crypto. This year has been quite an eye opener in terms of risk assets and also people falling for BS and BS getting exposed. BS has been exposed so much that I thought I would start exposing the BS that is Elliott Wave. Well at least I will prove it moving forward. So many people have been absolutely destroyed my narratives and misinformation and even worse scams and bad exchanges. The truth is that Crypto's were never meant to be centralized but how else would you buy them if we didn't have exchanges. It's a tough situation and one that hasn't quite yet resolved itself in terms of consumer confidence. The US dollar is a really good indicator right now because it tells us how bad the rest of the world is doing in relative terms. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
TVC:DXY
by AriasWave
AW 10YR\INTEREST RATES ANALYSIS - Coiling Up for Higher Rates...In this video I explain my long-term view on 10 Year Bond Yields also known as Interest Rates. If there is one view of mine that has stood the test of time it is my view of this chart. My timing couldn't be better if what I talk about in this video comes to pass. It appears that we have just completed what appears to be the first wave of the upcoming 5-Wave move for Wave E. This pattern has been unfolding since at least 1100AD and it still hasn't completed yet. It provides so many clues as to what is coming in the not-so-distant future. There is no better time to learn how the waves operate in these psychology driven markets. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
TVC:TNX
by AriasWave
XAUUSD, Sell and path aheadThe market has come to the conclusion that the level of 1800 to 1810 is a very strong and important resistance. Because after reaching this range several times, it has faced selling pressure. 1. It has probably completed wave B and will move towards wave C (1727 to 1734). 2. It has reached the corner of the drawn triangle and since it failed to register a higher ceiling, we expect it to break the triangle downwards and start a big fall. 3. In the short term, it is necessary to have a correction, because all indicators and oscillators and other fundamental and technical indicators are at the highest level and need to be corrected. 4. A shock may enter the market in the coming week and everyone will be surprised. According to the available data and forecasts, it is possible that the CPI will appear higher than expected (which will cause a downward shock) and as a result the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise the interest rate again by 0.75%. So according to NFP and PPI data (and possibly CPI), it is still too early for the Federal Reserve to have a plan to reduce the pace of interest rates. Important: According to the fundamental data, the price of gold is very high and should have a deep decline.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by sina76m
6
XAUUSD, 11 reasons for the price drop11 solid reasons that you can rely on to start the price drop: 1. Strong negative divergence in RSI and MACD 2. The formation of Hanging Man candlestick (a bearish candlestick that initiates a downward trend) 3. The possibility of forming a double top 4. Strong resistance 1800 to 1810 5. Dealing with the trend line (probable channel) daily 6. The presence of two large gaps in the areas 1710 to 1727 and 1680 to 1702 (must be filled) 7. The necessity of pullback to the broken channel of 9 months and retesting it 8. Dealing with the 200 moving average 9. RSI and Stochastic are in the overbought range 10. NFP data that will benefit the dollar 11. Fundamentally, according to various data, the current price is very expensive.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by sina76m
5
Double bottom confirmed on the NasdaqA simple reversal trade setup on the Nasdaq. The tech index confirmed a double bottom pattern breakout on November 11th, the day after an epic rally which is among the best days of 2022. The breakout has not seen any momentum as different Fed heads have come out saying different things, and some geopolitical tensions. The markets are still determining if the Fed will slow down on rate hikes and if inflation will slow down. These two things are a topic for a different post. Let's talk about the chart we see. The Nasdaq saw buyers jump in right at the retest zone of the breakout pattern. This is just typical of what we expect from a breakout trade. Traders can either enter now and place their stops below the breakout zone, or await for the recent highs of 11,850 to be taken out before jumping in long. The latter is the more safer way to play and increases your probability of success as it confirms a higher low. Since trading is a business of probabilities, this is a very prudent way to play the trade. There are also TWO other charts which are pointing at higher markets: First, the US 10 year yield is the chart you must be watching to determine where stocks are going. We have a reversal pattern on this, and as yields drop, stock markets rise. Of course, a move into bonds needs to be assessed properly. We have seen a case where the 10 year dropped because of fear (the Poland-Ukraine missile issue). But generally, as yields drop, it is the market pricing in the Fed being less hawkish and even pausing rate hikes soon. Secondly, the US Dollar Index (DXY) heading lower is a positive sign for markets for the same reason as above. A less hawkish Fed. The DXY also broke down and we are awaiting our first lower high. Both of these continuing lower means a higher chance that stock markets, and yes the Nasdaq, continue their reversal recovery. But of course, the Fed in December could put a major halt to this move.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by Uncharted-FX
1
10yr-2yr Inversion VS Stock market bottomThe last two times of market recessions, Dotcom and the Great Recession both times the stock market did not hit bottom until 3yrs after the inversion happened. Meaning we are only 129 days into this one. I would take advantage of this current rally and not get overly long on positions, but sell out of positions into strength. The FED has made it clear there will be more pain ahead, and they will only strengthen their resolve next meeting. Either way, a .50 basis or a .75 move is on the table stocks will not bottom until the inversion starts to un-invert, as proven in the past.
TVC:US10YShort
by Coulisnosaj
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Bullish Engulfing in Focus Before FedThe US 10-year Treasury yield left behind a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern on the daily chart this Friday. This is as the bond tested a rising range of support from August. A turn higher from here could open the door to revisiting the October high of 4.33. Otherwise, breaking lower exposes the 50-day Simple Moving Average, which could reinstate the upside focus. All eyes next week turn to the Fed, which is expected to deliver a 75-basis point rate hike. The focus will rather be on their language going forward as markets increasingly expect moderation. TVC:US10Y
TVC:US10Y
by QM_Dubrovsky
How low can bonds go?Months ago, when 10 year bond futures were still 175, this weekly head and shoulders pattern jumped out at me. It looked so big and so bad I almost didn't want to believe it could play out. Now, as we approach 135, this massive, fully triggered pattern may be the best indication of where bonds are headed: 125. Sure, they could bounce a few times as they have done on the way down, but ultimately June 2011 lows are the likely stopping point on this decline. BONUS: As you can see, I didn't count the massive March 2020 wick or include it in the measured move. Better to be prepared for the UB to overshoot the 125 target by a little or a lot before staging any meaningful comeback.
CBOT:UB1!Short
by gr8fultrading
US 10 Year Treasury Yield: What's Next?Quick Analysis on 10 Year Treasury Yield on a 1M Linear Chart. 1) The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has been respecting a falling channel for multiple decades going back to the 1980s. 2) It is currently headed to the top trendline of the channel with a possibility to break in the coming months. 3) The measured move of the falling channel would bring it back to Pre-2008 ranges. 4) This may fall in line with the US Dollar strengthening (in the idea section below). 5) If US 10 Year Treasury Yield goes lower, there is not much more room for it to get to 0. What are your opinions on this? If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
TVC:TNX
by MillionaireEconomics
17
ARIASWAVE MARKET UPDATE - The Bear Market Correction Continues.In this video I go over the current waves within this bear market correction. Everything is still tracking within the parameters set up in my last Market Update. Not much change to report apart from a couple of waves within the Wave D Zig-Zag for the stock markets but still in line with the count. I am not expecting much to happen over the course of the next month or so due to the corrective process still unfolding. That means that even though OIL looks pretty bearish, it may still hang around these levels until small degree corrections unfold. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
TVC:DXY
by AriasWave