Get started

10yyield

US Market, Short retrace or all the way down?10YY is back at Dec 2022 high, yet S&P is far from Dec 2022 low. 100Y has broken out above resistance. The dollar continues to show strength. No doubt, there is bound to be a market retracement coming up. If you FOMO during the last week, you may want to trim some long positions. The next question is, will a new higher low be created? There are 2 possible scenarios ahead 1) S&P bottom at a level higher than 3800 (Dec's 2022 low), hence a higher low. Inflation continues to decline. The dollar continues to weaken. Soft landing and bull market is confirmed but it won't be as strong as the 2020 post covid. 2) YoY Inflation creates a higher low and rises back above 6.5%. The dollar continues to rally. 10YY continues to rise and retest the high at 4.3%. Then we may see S&P breaking 3800 and maybe even restest 3500. Our portfolio is neutral for Feb 2023, but we may start pivoting to short bias. We have shared a few potential shorts ($AAPL and $HD). However, a short bias portfolio does not mean the entire portolio is filled with SQQQ or CFD S&P short. By playing a careful selection of individual stocks, we can choose the degree of our bearishness. We are still carrying some long positions in the utility/clean energy and shipping sector. As we see more data, we will get more bearish or less bearish. DYODD
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by NimbusCapital
1
Anyone Else Feeling Car Sick?US markets are treading water on Monday morning, ahead of the US cash open, but the Nasdaq is seeing some pressure amid another surge in the 10Y yield back toward the 1.61% level. The Biden Administration has successfully won the Senate vote on the $1.9T stimulus package, which should now see the bill go back to the house for final senate approved changes, and then to Biden's desk for signature. Typically, this would be a sell the news event, particularly because this is such an important time for household spending/debt levels. The issue I see now, is when this money is rapidy spent (if it hasn't been already), and then what happens? Let's see how long it takes before we see more talks of another stimulus package, which if even suggested, could see the dollar tank, and crypto fortified as the only logical path forward. Oil rallied hard on a drone attack on Aramco (again), which saw Brent rise as high as a 71 handle, before pairing some gains. Remember last time all the investment banks went bullish on oil, and then Aramco facilities saw a "rocket" attack? Interesting timing, and how these things just happen to work out for the investments banks everytime. Just another conspiracy in this new world order of secrecy and lies. We'll be looking forward to key (long end) treasury auctions this week, which should be very telling considering the long end is tanking. Either the (anticipated) increase of supply with all the new fiscal debt, or the shrinking demand as rates rise, has the bond market on thin ice. With the 10Y continuing to put pressure on growth, we could be in for one hell of a week. We're seeing a clear rotation out of growth and into value, which should continue for sometime, sending the broader indexes lower in the interim. China's CSI was down by as much as 3.5% this morning, which officially puts the CSI in correction territory. As we noted last week, the Nasdaq fell by as much as 10% as well from the ATH, putting it in correction territory also. With european markets mixed, and analysts across Wall Street expecting everything from a global market crash, to an immediate term rebound, it seems everyone has the same question on their mind, "when the fuck is this market finally going to see an actual correction?" Vix is up around 5% on the day and sitting at a 26 handle, after being hammered on Friday by as much as 14%. We're seeing some pressure as I'm typing, because we're being panic bid into the open (as usual). The irrational exuberance is apparently back after the perceived value from last week's light selling. The bulls are infinitely deep pocketed it seems, and exclusively like converting cash into assets. I wonder what will happen when things actually correct, and if they'll remember how to sell those assets. Hopefully there will be someone there to buy them when the time comes. Maybe we'll find out as early as this week... *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
TVC:US10YLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
12