How I Knew SPY Is Gonna Drop Today (VIX Magic!)Hi traders,
yes yes, the title is a little bit click-baity, but to be honest, SPY down was about an 80% probability for me today.
Now to be fair, I've been expecting this move lower for over a week now, so plenty of factors surely played their roles, but as soon as I saw VIX close out in a 1-2-3 Low formation yesterday (Monday), I had that final confirmation today is the day.
For beginners, VIX is what traders call a "Fear Index". Put plainly it takes into consideration markets' volatility, options volume ratios (whether there are more than usual people hedging) and gauges a "level of panic" traders are currently showing with their actions.
Its history is shown in the chart and therefore we can look for our standard patterns! Being inverted (High VIX values mean more fear and likelihood of markets crashing), a bottoming pattern such as 1-2-3 Low which appeared yesterday signalizes possible SPY reversal down.
And that's it!
Hope you learned something and be safe.
Tom | FINEIGHT
