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1987

My Stock Market Crash FantasyOn the left we see 29 trading days from peak. On the right we see 29 trading days from peak before the historical stock market crash of 1987. It is a stock market crash fantasy because huge stock market crashes are very rare events that are most likely not to occur. That being said, IF a crash is going to occur it would more than likely *only* start very soon after an extreme rally up. Secondly, if it is going to occur in a manner similar to the 1987 and 1929 crashes, then there is only a short window of opportunity for it to occur. The time window of 29 days to final peak is now in alignment from 1929, 1987 and 2024. Will it occur? It probably will not occur if we start to rally from this point forward. But if we start right NOW to get some hard down days and stronger lower low and lower high days going into the first week of September, then maybe just maybe the stock market crash fantasy won't be a fantasy anymore. Some technical notes: we continue to have many and plenty of Carl V bearish technical patterns on major indices that points to a test of the August 5 lows. A move down to those lows into the the first week of September would be a very bearish sign for markets, but it is unknown whether such a big decline could happen that fast again.
SP:SPX
by TomNewYork
Microsoft Replicating 1987 SPX ChartSince Microsoft bought ChatGPT back in March 2023, the price of NASDAQ:MSFT stock has gone on to replicate the same pattern as the 1987 S&P500 stock market rally. Does it mean anything all by itself? No. It still needs a catalyst for the drop to happen. The 1987 stock market crash had many triggers and catalysts and the drop was a sharp 40% from August 28th, 1987 to October 19th 1987. What would cause a sharp 40% drop in NASDAQ:MSFT ? You all could type in your guess in a reply to this chart. It could come about under a variety of situations, but it would take an act of Government regulation or a major sea-change in laws or the business environment. When you see people posting "overlays" of the market to past debacles, you will find almost NONE of them work. Last year in January I posted a pattern where NASDAQ:TSLA was mimicking the fundamental and technical price pattern that NYSE:MCD McDonalds had from over a decade ago when it fell 75% on a rough patch for its business. It turned out to be identical and NASDAQ:TSLA rallied over 150% last year just exactly the same as happened to $MCD. I'll post the link down below for you to view. The overlay here between NASDAQ:MSFT and the 1987 SP:SPX is pretty amazing but we have no catalysts to make it drop. Stay tuned on any weakness and look for cheap hedges (long term puts out to July-Oct-Dec for this year). Don't spend more than 1% of an account to hedge a position, but if you hedge it correctly you can protect against a large decline without much cost to a portfolio. Here's hoping this pattern doesn't 'pan-out' because it would be or could be very disruptive to the markets. Wishing you all health and success in the markets this year and thanks to TradingView for all of the great tools for doing research! Cheers, Tim Friday, February 23, 2024 8:59PM EST
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by timwest
25
DJI - God Help Us All... Welcome to the Great depression 2022 Dow Jones industrial average index has lost its February 2020 support. As this support did not hold i am convinced that the oldest US index has begun the great depression, not recession but depression. You can already see what fiat pairs with the USD are doing. The run up was just phenomenal to say the least. We've been essentially parabolic since 2009, with the total run up since 1987 flash crash. Since then economy was on steroids. The first sign of realism came with the dot.com bubble. It was especially hard on the S&P 500 index which lost more than 80% back then. Then came 2008 financial crisis which was seen predominant in the DJI. After that it was just up up up, sideways and up. Covid dump just showed how laveraged this market is and sparked asset inflation on steroids. .... NOW ... Will see what happens. DJI could still drop by 1k points, but not much lower for now as it is expected to go into a retracement first, if it doesn't go already. This retracement could drag out for year or two before continuation down. Where you might think?... below 2008 bottom is quite realistic, but for that it can take 10-30 years to play out. Again its a depression not recession, remember that. We are clearly not dropping like in the 1929-1932, therefore i think we will bleed slower. Aftermath could be ... who knows... 20-30% of people out of job.... in 1930s there were around 25-30% of them on the streets. During DJI retracement there could still be a rotation in the stock and crypto market, with little projects reaching new ATHs, but still lets not expect to much, and rather realize that the US economy has POPPED. DISCLAMER: I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well. TVC:DJI
DJ:DJI
by CR35
17
Massive Bull Trap - Nasdaq 100 IndexThe 2022 March low is a massive bull trap, signaled by trend breaks and a monthly RSI divergence. The setup here reminds me of 1987. Check out the Sqzme DIX index to see the balance of OTC transactions (Over-The-Counter trades, conducted by hedge funds, banks etc). DIX indicates a bull trap to a scale not seen in over 10 years. Heavy OTC buy-side initiation occurred during the 2022 Feb-March dip, similar to after the Covid low. DIX has now fallen back to historical averages, without any equivalent sell-side activity occurring. This indicates that a significant number of OTC customers are now trapped in losing positions.
TVC:NDQShort
by ValkyrieBlue
Do not fight the Fed Market is setting up to crashThere a millions of market viewpoints. The nice thing about tradingview is that for the most part the viewpoints are technical in nature. Put simply the technical viewpoint I want to show in the chart here is that the nasdaq composite is under heavy selling pressure. We had a rebound today January 10th, 2022, but it was nothing more than an intraday rebound. The weight of the evidence still points to down market and accelerating down. The narrative too often even from technicians is that the market will bounce, is due for a bounce, will bounce make a new high first, finds support etc etc. Well guess what, sometimes the market does not bounce that much or even find much support. Sometimes it falls really hard and *drops like a ROCK*. Sometimes it just goes down and *stays down*. Sometimes it will go down 5 limit down days in a row without barely a bid. So the chart pretty much says it all. If we view the peak in the Nas composite as November 22, 2021 then we count the number of days until we reach last support and then peak selling climax. The current nasdaq time frame is *barely* holding onto support. Today's one day reversal candle was not a victory, just an intermission. The key aspect of the overall chart is the *Final Rally* that occurred in December 20th, 2021 to December 28th 2021. That rally was a suckers rally and was orchestrated so that the big money can sell and sell really hard. That same final suckers rally also occurred in 1987. It gave the appearance to most market participants that the market was setting up for another new high, new bull trend, new rally and all is well. And yet those dreams were dashed, and then came the rapid bearish engulfing with a speed and force that most are not prepared for. The SPEED of the price action down is what causes most people to not be able to react quickly enough and get out in one piece. I certainly do not wish a decline as severe as 1987 but we just have to look at the technical price structure and make an honest assessment and take it from there....
TVC:IXICShort
by TomNewYork
5
1987 crash then and nowI am on watch for signs of a resumptin of the downtrend this week. A repeat of 1987 seems very unlikely. However I am open minded. Look for a couple of doji candlesticks early this week or flat close. Then be on watch for a big red down bar that closes back down UNDER the downtrend line. If this happens, and it happens very swiftly, we must be open minded to a possible crash or mini crash scenario. Other factors that could support this case are : * The two recent gaps we had in the SPX, perhaps they want to get filled soon. * 10year yield start to accelerate higher next few weeks ? * October is not quite over yet. There is this idea that yes, stocks bottom in October and it is bull time again into bullish seasonal end of the year... but maybe it is different this time. * the recent breakout, if it was fake could be a very painful trap to many in the market and lead to heavy selling on the realization ( or late realization) that the breakout was a trap
SP:SPXShort
by TomNewYork
6