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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 129)Current Outlook 1-2 weeks: neutral-bullish 2 weeks - 12 months: bearish 1-2+ years: Super bullish Yesterday we went over the reasons why I changed my short term outlook to neutral/bullish for the next 1-2 weeks and today we will narrow in on how far this bounce can go. The last 4 hour candle challenged the resistance cluster at $6,724 and appears to have failed. Resistance came horizontally and from the 200 period MA . We briefly rallied through before getting shot back down below both points of resistance. The current candle is continuing the pullback and if it fails to support above $6,250 then this bounce will have likely run it’s course. While the 4 hour chart is looking fairly ugly, the higher time frames still look just fine. The rest of this post will be looking at the daily chart, which still shows plenty of room left to rally. The daily Ichimoku Cloud shows two key areas of resistance: the Kijun-sen at $7,845 and the bottom of the cloud at $8,045 The TD Sequential is showing a green 5 out of 9 with major resistance at $7,700 (green dotted). The Visible Range Volume Profile is showing resistance stacked up from here to $8,600 with $8,150 being the most significant. When multiple indicators are painting the same picture it is usually time to make a big bet. Building a short from $7,770 - $8,150 with stop loss at $8,650 looks like a really good position. Before than can happen we need to rally through $6,800 and $7,000 resistance. With how bearish this market has been that will be much easier said than done. If we create a new low below $6,250 then I will expect the drawdown to continue before we are able to retest the major areas of resistance outlined above. Thank you for reading and have a Happy Independence Day! Until next time drink responsibly, eat heartily, be social and smash the follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 128)Current Outlook 1-2 weeks: neutral-bullish 2 weeks - 12 months: bearish 1-2+ years: Super bullish Three days ago I changed my short term outlook from bearish to neutral and over the past couple days I have been leaning bullish for the very near term (1-2 weeks). That is due to the tweezer bottom on the weekly chart, breaking a Bill Williams Fractal on the daily chart, breaking out of the down trend that started on 5/5, the Ichimoku Cloud being out of equilibrium and the bullish crossovers on the shorter term EMA’s . If that sounds overwhelming then take a deep breathe and let’s go through each indication step-by-step. Tweezer Bottom on the weekly chart is self-explanatory The Bill Williams Fractals are in yellow and you will notice that we haven’t broken above one since 5/5 when the downtrend started. We got very close on 6/7 but managed to stay slightly below. We did break a fractal on 6/30 when we traded above $6,358. That triggered the stop losses on my BTC:USD and ETH:USD shorts and was my first major indication of a short term reversal. We had been steadily resisting the trend line from 5/5 and when that broke it served as confirmation of a short term reversal. When looking at the Ichimoku Cloud on the 3 day chart we can see a large C-Clamp which indicates how far out of equilibrium we currently are. That indicates short term oversold conditions and tells me that this bounce could go much higher than originally expected. The long, flat cloud at $10,400 indicates the furthest I would expect to bounce. If we do get to that price then I would be viewing it as a high probability short. We currently have a bullish crossover on the 12 and 26 period EMA’s on the following timeframes: 1h, 2h, 4h, 6h, and 12h. As noted yesterday we continue to trade in between those EMA’s on the daily chart. If wanting to make a bullish entry waiting for those EMA's to crossover on the daily chart should be your best bet. Even with all of the short term bullish indicators it is possible to continue to drawdown at any moment. The daily chart is threatening a tweezer top along with a bearish spinning top and that could be all that is needed for the bears to start selling aggressively again. I am going to continue waiting on the sidelines for further development. I am still holding onto my ETH:BTC shorts from 0.07479 - 0.07844 and have set the stop loss at 0.0731. I am finding it very interesting that ETH:USD and ETH:BTC have not broken through the downtrend like Bitcoin has. This is a great time of year to get outside and enjoy the weather while waiting for the market to develop! Instead of biting my nails and watching the order book I will be playing golf and softball this evening. Thank you for your time! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez