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1day50ma

Potential rising channel breakdown on BitcoinBitcoin had been forming a rising channel for quite a few days here which is seen best on the 4hr chart timeframe. I chose to show it on the 1day timeframe though because the channels breakdown target just so happens to align with the daily 50ma(orange line). It would make a lot of sense for it to retrace to the 50ma and attempt to retest it as support. Of course being that we are in the midst of a potential phase 3 of our bull market, this also increases the chances of bearish patterns not hitting their full breakdown targets(especially on time frames smaller than 1day). So there’s no guarantee it hits its full breakdown target. Many times in this cycle of the market price can even form bearish patterns that till find a way to break upwards. There’s also a chance here much like when we topped out in 2019 after a big parabolic pump in of this just being the beginning of the correction and for price to break down from even a couple more additional bearish patterns as well. So I will do my best to keep things updated If I see any further bearish patterns form off of wherever this one goes but for now, I preliminarily am going to try to get a small dip buy in if it reaches this current potential break down target and then watch for t he next pattern to develop after that. *not financial advice*
by DrDovetail
4
DXY appears to be triggering a rising wedgeShown here on the 1 day chart is a rising wedge that is probably most valid on a 4-8hr time frame. However I wanted to show the 1 day 50ma (in orange) so I decided to post this idea on the 1 day time frame. We can see a big red candle has formed here and almost already reached the breakdown target of the wedge of 108. My thought was it was going to wait until the 1 day 50ma climbed up to the 108 zone for the breakdown to reach this target and the retest the 1 day 50ma’s support but it appears to be heading to this breakdown target much more quickly than I expected. We can see the green target I have above the wedge was almost reached to its full target but fell ever so slightly short…falling short of reaching 100% of the target suggests the bullish momentum for dxy may be waning and we could see a trend change to the down trend sooner than later. Especially if this current bearish pattern reaches 100% of its breakdown target or even more so, loses the 1 day 50ma as support. If we hit the full target and then it flips the 1 day 50ma to solid resistance the downtrend will likely be confirmed. If so it could mean yet another lower high has been established for DXY meaning that in the grand scheme of things the DXY would be very much still in a macro bear trend, despite all the FED induced”strength” it has seen as of yet…the recent surge in strength while everything else has plummeted does seem to bear the hallmarks of some sort of final exit pump but that is of course mostly speculation on my part. Al eyes on the 1 day 50ma *not financial advice*
TVC:DXY
by DrDovetail
Quant testing the top trendline of the 1day symmetrical triangleWe can see that priceaction is currently attempting to both test the top trendline of the symmetrical triangle (in chartreuse) as well as trying to climb back above the 1 day 50ma(in orange). If price action can flip the 1 day 50ma back to solidified support then it can validate the bullish breakout from this symmetrical triangle. The breakout target from that symmetrical triangle will take price action far above this white line which is actually the neckline of an even bigger inverse head and shoulders pattern. If we are to hit 100% of the breakout target for the triangle ($165), this will greatly increase the probability of it also triggering the breakout of the inverse head and shoulders pattern as well which can send it considerably higher afterwards($224). Of course for now the 1 day 50ma is still resistance so we want to see a couple daily candle closes above that and any confirmation candles after that that retest it, testing it as strong support. Flipping tat 1day 50ma back to strong support will also confirm that the golden cross that recently happened will be sustained instead of flipping back into a deathcross and confirming a golden cross fake out. *not financial advice*
COINBASE:QNTUSDLong
by DrDovetail
1
Current bull patterns to watch This current purple bullflag…of which probability is increasing that it will at least do a breakdown fakeout and send a wick to retest the top trendline of the wedge we just broke out of as new support(in teal). I’m thinking it could occur where the brown trendline intersects the teal one or possibly where the pink one intersects the teal one. The pink and brown trendline are both trendline of two different rising channels we are in in the larger time frame charts each at a slightly different trajectory but more or less overlapping each other. If we confirm the teal trendline as support on any sort of retest then the target for the wedge breakout is 72k. This could take a very long time (weeks to months) or no time at all(days). Wedges seem to hit their targets on their own schedule. As long as we maintain our bullish higher high / higher low pattern on the macro chart it should hit the full target. If we start closing weekly candles below the pink trendline then we will likely form a lower low and confirm the bear market. For now bull market is not yet cancelled. Will leave this idea neutral until it decides what to do with the bottom of the channels and the top trendline of the wedge. Currently 1day 50ma is support. If somehow the 1 day 50ma holds support we could just bust right out of this purple bullflag but its looking more and more likely we could at least temporarily lose 1day 50ma support for a few 1 day candles.
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
Back above the 1 day 50ma & the mid channel trendline!We have just followed up a 1 day chart higher low with a higher high which is also a good recipe for a bullish trend reversal. Need to see a follow up additional higher low from here now to really set it in stone but it’s very possible we go all the way up to test the 1 day 200ma (in blue) before that correction down to the next higher low. The target for finally breaking above the mid channel trendline (in yellow) is the top of the channel to test the descending channel’s green top trendline. Wouldn’t surprise me if we retesting the 1 day 200ma at the same point we test the top trendline of the channel around 44k then get rejected back down for a higher low (maybe to retest the middle channel yellow trendline one last time as solidified support before finally breaking out of the entire channel). Of course there’s no guarantee of that retest it could just decide to go parabolic and blast past the channel’s top trendline upon the first retest. However odds favor an initial rejection if that trendline is double reinforced resistance with the 1 day 200ma (in blue) overlapping it. Always a chance we could see a slight correction on the way up to that top trendline first though and achieve the follow up higher low before even testing it, in which case we could correct as low as the mid channel yellow trendline imo. All in all, having this turn around occur right after amazon finally admits it’s exploring crypto for payments which we all knew they were going to eventually do, is enough of a bullish excuse to send it flying so the correction could very easily be over. I’m leaning bullish in the slightly more macro short term.Stillw ant to see that follow up higher low first though.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail