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13/05/24 Weekly outlookAre you getting bored yet? Another week of chop has elapsed, and in short there is not much else to say on the surface. BTC took out it's previous weeks high and then retraced roughly half of the progress made, filling the FVG left behind by the local move up and creating our range low for this week. As it so often does, the range perfectly shows the levels of which price action moves throughout the week. We had $1.1B worth of options expire on May 10th last week which gave BTC it's volatility on Friday creating the weeks low and creating an FVG. I believe it makers sense for price to work towards filling that FVG and retesting the MIDPOINT resistance. If price rejects then next stop is range low, if price accepts higher then range high is the target, simple as that on LTF. In terms of the broader market, the ETF battle is still being won by the bearish GBTC Greyscale as their continued outflow of BTC with a outflow of $43M vs the net inflow of the 11 other US BTC spot ETFs totalling $32M . Resulting in a net outflow pf $11M The altcoin market continues to weaken as BTC continues to chop, risk off on leverage continues until BTC can confidently regain the 4H 200EMA , until then spot and hold .
by ProR35
06/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64,741.58 Last weeks low: $56,573.01 Midpoint: $60,657.29 As April comes to a close, BTC post it's first red candle on the monthly for the first time since August of last year, that's exactly 7 months of green candles until now. From a TA standpoint it comes as no surprise, BTC hit and surpassed the previous ATH, it was clear we would meet resistance at this level as is often the case whenever a coin reaches it's previous ATH. Now that the monthly close back under the 69K level that confirms a Swing Fail Pattern (SFP) which is HTF bearish, the first bearish confirmation we've seen on the HTF for quite some time, the first signs of exhaustion in the rally. We are now in the "post halving" section of the Bullrun which we know has huge bullish potential, however in the short term Bitcoin is looking more bearish than it has done this year. Altcoins have already taken a huge hit, probably worse off than was expected if BTC pulled back and a lot of alts are in oversold territory . For any strength to return to the altcoin market BTC needs to return to strength and for that to happen all eyes are on the ETF inflows/outflows. For this week I would be surprised if we saw anything other than further chop. The 4H 200EMA is still resisitance for now, a reclaim and acceptance above that level would be a bullish signal for continuation higher, until then building long term SPOT positions/DCA'ing on alts may be a good idea as prices are down 15-25% from their local highs. Leverage trading would require being very nimble to dip in and out of trading both sides.
by ProR35
22/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $66857.53 Last weeks low: $63230.46 Midpoint: $59603.38 The 4th Bitcoin Halving is now complete , the block reward has been cut from 6.25BTC to 3.125BTC . The reduction in reward creates a supply shock that changes the the tokenomics drastically. We now have a situation were miners revenue effectively halves overnight , despite this miners would have had ample time to plan for this as the halving is every 4 years consistently and would have been able to plan accordingly. Last week we saw Bitcoins price drop back to sub 60k after losing the 4H 200EMA support level . After a double bottom price rose back towards the underside of the 4H 200EMA and now retesting as resistance. This week will be key for the direction of BTC in the short term. We know post-halving we see new highs within a year, often very quickly after the event, but the short term price direction is very difficult to predict at this time. Institutional buyers are here, we have big players like BlackRock and MicroStrategy buying up large amounts of BTC to hold long term, the Hong Kong ETF begins on 30th April and could potentially bring Billions of dollars in additional in-flows. Grayscale has been the lead seller in the last few months as they sell large amounts of their GBTC, currently $16.4B in total . A large reason for the sell off is the high fees on Grayscales ETF compared to the newer low fee options presented by BlackRock, WisdomTree, Valkyrie etf all at 0.25%. Grayscale have now tackled this problem by creating a "Mini-GBTC" with 0.15% fees making it the lowest on the market . It will be interesting to see if this stops the consistent outflows. If it does and yet more demand enters the market in Asia coupled with a stunted supply of new Bitcoins we are looking at a good environment for price growth. This week I will be keeping a close eye on how BTC reacts around the 4H 200EMA, If we hover at this area with now real emphasis on direction then this is a traders environment where money can be made both ways before resuming the overall HTF uptrend. Alts took a huge hit last week and have given some good entry opportunities, naturally a strong BTC is needed to see progress in the alt market, with a strong reclaim of the 4H 200EMA alts can return to being risk on with a tight stop loss in my opinion.
by ProR35
01/04/24 Weekly outlook (Q2)Last weeks high: $71771.20 Last weeks low: $69088.87 Midpoint: $66406.55 Q2 BEGINS! BTC saw a 91.35% increase from yearly open and closed out Q1 at ~71K . A very strong first quarter on the lead up to The Halving now less than 20 days away we have only a few more weeks to get set for the event which historically brings new highs after. Now that we have ended the month of March and begun Q2 , we can see that the bulls really pushed for a strong monthly close above the '21 ATH level of 69K, a very important S/R level and now we have closed above on the monthly it's confirmed as new support. Almost instantly after the monthly close price did drop back down to the previous weeks Midpoint of the range and the important support level. I do think we range for a while and build a base in the lead up to the Halving, any dip is probably a good entry point for long a long term hold as historically new highs come soon after the halving. For now I think we'll see a continuation of select alts having double digit days with BTC & ETH staying relatively flat . In my opinion we're at the low cap/memecoin stage of the cycle and just waiting for the next big BTC rally to start the whole cycle again and have money flow back into BTC. Next rally should target 86K (1.272 FIB extension) and with supply halving and ETF backing I do believe it's achievable this year perhaps even this quarter.
by ProR35
2
25/03/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $68975.9 Last weeks low: $64863.9 Midpoint: $60752.0 Our first major pullback took place last week as BTC saw a weekly low of $60,752 , and notably the weekly high didn't manage to top the previous cycles ATH at 69K which does indicate a HTF Bearish Swing Fail Pattern. The 4H 200EMA providing support on multiple occasions and keeping the HTF trend bullish. Both of these price action movements creating a bit of a stalemate/ chop. Looking closely to see which pattern gets broken first. So far any pullback we have seen has been more of a leverage flush than a sustained pullback, V-shaped recoveries as entities such as BlackRock completely absorb any sell pressure. However, we did see a drop in IBIT inflows that were unable to absorb Greyscales GBTC outflows , leading to negative volume and a drop in price. I think if we could see an S/R flip of the previous ATH it would give the greenlight to the rest of the market to continue moving up. Historically a pre-halving dump is normal, a ~20% correction is normal. If we don't flip that S/R level a sweep of the $58K area is not off the table but the closer we get to the halving the less likely that is to happen in my opinion. The altcoin market pulled back with BTC with a few exceptions as usual. Narrative plays like RWA enjoying gains as BlackRock prepare for their $10TRILLION Tokenisation vision starting by depositing $100m USDC on the ETHEREUM blockchain. . This week focusing on ETH based RWA projects for longer term holds could be a good plan to try and front run BlackRock buying. BITCOIN is obviously the main focus as it needs to continue its bullish trend so that the rest of the market can continue to rally. 25 Days to The Halving This weeks focus: - BTC S/R Flip - ETH RWA's
by ProR35
2
03/03/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64271.5 Last weeks low: $57579.4 Midpoint: $50887.4 BITCOIN ATH IS IN SIGHT! A crazy final week of February closing the monthly candle with a record single candle gain in the history of Bitcoin! A +52.8% gain in a single month ($22,134.20) . This price action has lead us to a situation that has never been seen before in this markets relatively short history... Never has BTC broken its previous ATH before The Halving , yet the we are currently -5% away from ATH with approximately 49 days to The Halving . With new institutional buyers involved in this cycle it is clear the schedule for what we have become used to has been sped up significantly and we can now expect for the ATH to be broken even before the mining reward gets cut in half! Another metric that can be used to gauge our progress in the cycle is general sentiment and retail interest . So far the news cycle is quiet about crypto and the standard retail investors that general give a top signal are nowhere to be seen currently. This is all very bullish for the space and indicated room to grow. For this week I will be planning how to preserve my capital and manage my greed accordingly. As it stands the FEAR AND GREED INDEX is 86 which should be taken into account. I do think once BTC breaks past its previous ATH the news will start to cover more stories about BITCOIN which could also bring retail investors to the table, maybe they forgot about their spot positions they bought at the peak of the last cycle and would look to cash out at break even and therefor increase selling pressure? That may not happen but planning for it helps in case it is a sell the news event. My general thoughts for this Bullrun remain the same a buy and hold strategy will outperform the day trader but -30% flushes are perfectly normal in these conditions so it's always important have some cash in reserve to add to narrative plays.
by ProR35
26/02/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $52994.8 Last weeks low: $51757.7 Midpoint: $50520.6 Another big week in the world of crypto! As predicted BTC has been ranging consistently between the local high of 53k and the support of 50k . Since Bitcoin has been moving sideways we have seen profits rotating into ETH sending it above 3K and the broader altcoin market. We see this regularly in market cycles as capital trickles down the market cap leader board. Now it seems the ETH/BTC pair is looking more bullish we could potentially see further chop for BTC as it builds a base for the next leg and allow alts to play catch up for a short time. This week I believe there may be some buying opportunities as some of the indicators reset and the key moving averages help to support price, the 4H 200EMA being the key one for altcoins. Bitcoin remains bullish over the 48K level, under that and I think we see a flush/ deleveraging event going into the halving which is less than 2 months away now. We have seen a few times recently just how quickly the market panics when BTC moves even a few % in the negative direction. Exercising caution and protecting funds are so important as the Bullrun is just beginning.
by ProR35
19/02/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $42846.80 Last weeks low: $50286.30 Midpoint: $47725.79 BITCOIN has finally done it! BTC has flipped the all important 49K S/R level and has had a week of confirmation meaning 49K is now major support and a new trading zone has been entered. Last week we saw BTC continue the rally that started the week previously with a near linear move up towards the resistance level, now the chart shows at the 0.25 level price broke through that level and had a successful retest followed by a further push up towards just shy of 53K . This price action initially took capital and interest away from the altcoin market, however now that we have some sideways chop as BTC establishes a base for which it can push towards the halving and ATH, some of those profits have now cycled through to ETH and the altcoin market with some double digit returns across the board. All this price action is very bullish from a TA standpoint along with the FA side of things with BlackRock now owning MUN:10B + in BTC for their ETF the sell pressure has definitely dropped and with the halving fast approaching the supply will drop even more. For this week I would not be surprised if we see a revisit of the midpoint ~$50K area and continue ranging for a little bit while altcoins rally and play catch up. In particular the AI coins have shown particular strength and I do think this category of altcoins will outperform a large portion of the market. I would begin to get worried if we see BTC fall back below the 49k range although the longer we stay at the current level I think the less likely that is to happen.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
When the price stagnates and then breaks a lateral trend...It's been a while since I published an analysis with a 1h timeframe. Well, the price of btc created a lateral trend (from 30 sessions upwards), establishing two levels in which it moved for a week, then the breaking of one of the levels brought a resumption of the rise and an increase in directionality associated with volatility, with a break visible to all. In this case the upper level being the rectangle is a purely continuation figure, it acted as a cap for a while, now a scenario where the price goes to test the resistance area between 46k and 49k usd, becomes more likely the one to follow before determining whether the correction is finished. It has already given a sign of this by making a high breaking this lateral trend, because it also exceeded the previous movement which lasted 12 days in terms of time.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Melupira89