S&P 500 Short Setup and potential PlayoutOANDA:SPX500USD
So SPX broke through BTL 1 of our Channel with a bigger 1H Bearish Candle. The SMA 100 & SMA 200 are starting to flat out but weren't crossed yet.
When that move to the Downside continues, I would wait for a little Pullback on the 1H and then, in Confirmation with maybe the 4H, open a Short
Position with the Target 2638.36!
I did some Fib and SUP stuff in there, because Fib is pretty reliable on the 1H, so this `COULD BE` a `POSSIBLE PLAYOUT`for that Short Position.
Pretty simple. Just look a little bit to the left (the past) and you will see that my Analysis could actually work.
Be patient and look out for those Setups, we will see! But SHORT move coming soon for sure.
1h
KNOW WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN A RANGE PATTERNThe market is working a range pattern the majority
of the time which is good news if you know what to look for.
Range patterns are full of information that will help you anticipate what comes next, so you can trade. Here are 3 examples that will make you chart smarter!
The first chart is my personal favorite range pattern. When you see a well established range, watch for price to "overshoot" your expected high or low. When that happens, get ready! As soon as it goes past the expected high or low, place pending orders to sell from the top or buy from the bottom. If price comes back to the range, it will come back fast!
The 2nd chart is an example of past performance predicting future price movement. During a range pattern, look back 15 bars from the middle of the range, and anticipate the market moving that far in the opposite direction. In this example, the solid arrow is predictive of the dashed arrow.
The last chart is an example of how the typical slow or no momentum you would expect is happening in the middle third, shaded in orange. To and from the outer edges of the range, momentum shows up.
TIPS FOR RANGE TRADINGRanges contain elements of certainty which are rare in a speculative industry.
With previously established highs and lows, you can anticipate where the market is likely to hold, change direction or stop all together.
5 interesting facts about range patterns when charting price action.
1 - The range pattern is good for traders who are terrible at cutting their losses. The nature of a range is to not make progress in one direction, so this is the best pattern to trade if you don’t like taking your stops. If the market moves against your open trade during a range, your patience may be rewarded, because chances are price will swing back in your direction.
2 - Ranges contain areas where you can expect momentum. That sounds like a contradiction, right? It's not. You can expect the typical slow market condition in a range, but only in the middle third of the range space. Count on momentum showing up when it runs to and from the outer edges of the range.
3 - Past performance predicts future movement. You’ve heard it - you’ve probably even said it - “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.” However, when it comes to range patterns, I keep track of where price has been in the past 15 bars. Do the math because that’s exactly how far you can expect price to move in the opposite direction in the next 15 bars.
4 - After a trend, it only takes 7 bars of time in the range pattern to tell me which direction is coming next. Add the 50 simple moving average to your chart. If price crosses that line and stays below it for more than 7 bars, it’s probably not going to return to the trend any time soon.
5 - The best range trades happen when your expected high or low is suddenly obliterated. Huh? It's true, and this is my secret weapon in trading. If price breaks out of a well established range pattern, immediately place pending orders to trade in the opposite direction. If price fails the breakout (which it usually does), it comes barreling back through the range pattern, and those trades move into profit very quickly.
NZDJPY 1D/1H ASCENDING TRIANGLE TRADESPrice is in an ascending triangle chart pattern
There were 4 failed Bullish breakout attempts of the triangle top
Price is falling to triangle bottom trendline
1H Short trade
Sell Stop @ 76.20
Sell TP at bottom triangle trendline
There will be a decision point at the bottom triangle trendline
Long trade
Price will rise up to the top triangle trendline
Bullish breakout of top trendline
Enter on a 15m break-hook-go chart pattern
1st Buy TP @ 77.42
2nd Buy TP @ 78.17
3rd Buy TP @ 78.68
Short trade
Price will have a Bearish breakout of the bottom triangle trendline
Enter on a 15m break-hook-go chart pattern
1st Sell TP @ 73.53
2nd Sell TP @ 72.04
Find your SL
XAUJPY Rally?Analysis
-XAUJPY looking bullish after showing signs of a reversal. Sellers pushed price down into support but the following day, buyers bid up the price to back above support before the second daily candle close.
-The 2 candle price action resulted in a bullish engulfing setup AT SUPPORT which is a bullish sign.
-The third day (after daily bullish engulfing candle) price formed a red inside bar which is indicative of consolidation on lower time frames
-On the 1H time frame, price just broke a bearish trendline to the upside.
-There is also bullish RSI divergence on the 1H time frame which further eludes to price possibly moving higher in the coming days.
-The reward/risk is good for the setup (given the distance between daily S/R levels)
Entry, Stops and Targets
-Long Entry: 144,336 (Enter long after price pulls back)
-Stop Loss: 143,170 (Set stop below the lowest daily candle)
-Take Profit: 146,668 (Set targets at a minimum of 2 times your stop depending on entry)
= 2R
*Trade Safe and at your own discretion!*
GBPCAD short POSSIBLE tradeConsidering the divergence, the way the price is moving (more like correction than a strong impulse bullinsh move), the current downtrend (daily timeframe) and the channel/support resistance zone, this could be a potential short trade. ONLY TRADE IT IF YOU SEE AN ENGULFING BEARISH BAR then the price test the confluence level.
USDCHF possible long tradeConfluence factors:
-Flag pattern
-Possible 38.1 fibo retest
-Support/resistance
-Possible 50 EMA retest
-Bullish channel
You can either decide to trade the breakout or trade the retest zone. Remember breakouts confirm the patterns that we think the market is doing. In this case, we are talking about a POSSIBLE (not confirmed) flag pattern. If the price breaks the above line and breaks the flag, then the flag is confirmed. Always manage your money wisely.
AUDNZD Short idea (flag pattern)Following the downtrend, we can say we see a 'clear' short opportunity by looking at the flag pattern, which is a continuation pattern. The price could also reach a 50% or 61.8% level from the fibonacci and combining it with the support/resistance zone, and the possible retest to the 50 EMA, it could be a potential trade.
CAD looking weak!Analysis
-CADJPY looking bearish after showing signs of reversal. Buyers pushed price up into and past resistance before the previous day's candle close. The next day, sellers stepped in and pushed price all the way down past yesterday's daily candle open.
-The price action resulted in a bearish engulfing setup AT RESISTANCE which is a bearish sign.
-On the 1H time frame, price just broke a bullish trend to the downside and has retraced some pips, possible retesting breakout.
-There is also bearish RSI divergence on the 1H time frame which further eludes to price possibly reversing to the downside.
-The reward/risk seems tight for the setup (given the distance between daily S/R) so I'm waiting for a strong pullback before entering short
Entry, Stops and Targets
-Short Entry: 83.79 (I entered on a pullback after price broke out)
-Stop Loss: 84.275 (Set stop above the high of the daily reversal candle)
-Take Profit: 82.82 (Set targets at a minimum of 1.8 times your stop depending on entry)
= 2R
*Manage your EMOTIONS, manage your RISK, follow your STRATEGY*
TURNING PRO CHALLENGE TRADING STRATEGYEURUSD - PRO CHALLENGE TRADING STRATEGY
WEEKLY CHART
Current Price at Weekly Sup/Res level of 1.1300
DAY CHART
Previous Evening Star candle patterns created Bearish moves
Watch for current Day candle to close Bearish to complete a 3rd Evening Star Pattern
Previous day candle was a Bearish Pin Bar
These candle patterns will confirm a Bearish continuation move short
1H CHART
Add Standard Pivot Point indicator
Price is returning down to Weekly S/R level and current Pivot level
This created my 1st Sell Take Profit zone where I will close 1/2 of my trade
Watching for Price to break below these two support levels
2nd Sell Stop @ 1.1280
Finale Take Profit close all trades @ 1.1235
Find SL