19/02/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $42846.80
Last weeks low: $50286.30
Midpoint: $47725.79
BITCOIN has finally done it! BTC has flipped the all important 49K S/R level and has had a week of confirmation meaning 49K is now major support and a new trading zone has been entered.
Last week we saw BTC continue the rally that started the week previously with a near linear move up towards the resistance level, now the chart shows at the 0.25 level price broke through that level and had a successful retest followed by a further push up towards just shy of 53K . This price action initially took capital and interest away from the altcoin market, however now that we have some sideways chop as BTC establishes a base for which it can push towards the halving and ATH, some of those profits have now cycled through to ETH and the altcoin market with some double digit returns across the board.
All this price action is very bullish from a TA standpoint along with the FA side of things with BlackRock now owning MUN:10B + in BTC for their ETF the sell pressure has definitely dropped and with the halving fast approaching the supply will drop even more.
For this week I would not be surprised if we see a revisit of the midpoint ~$50K area and continue ranging for a little bit while altcoins rally and play catch up. In particular the AI coins have shown particular strength and I do think this category of altcoins will outperform a large portion of the market. I would begin to get worried if we see BTC fall back below the 49k range although the longer we stay at the current level I think the less likely that is to happen.
1h
GBPUSD SELL IDEAFX:GBPUSD
The weekly, daily and 4h are overall bearish, with price having retraced to the Daily key resistance area in confluence with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. entry is based on the 1h bearish engulfing candlestick at daily resistance and also a break of bullish countertrend, retest and bearish engulfing candlestick structure on the 15 min and 30 min timeframes
When the price stagnates and then breaks a lateral trend...It's been a while since I published an analysis with a 1h timeframe. Well, the price of btc created a lateral trend (from 30 sessions upwards), establishing two levels in which it moved for a week, then the breaking of one of the levels brought a resumption of the rise and an increase in directionality associated with volatility, with a break visible to all. In this case the upper level being the rectangle is a purely continuation figure, it acted as a cap for a while, now a scenario where the price goes to test the resistance area between 46k and 49k usd, becomes more likely the one to follow before determining whether the correction is finished. It has already given a sign of this by making a high breaking this lateral trend, because it also exceeded the previous movement which lasted 12 days in terms of time.
EURJPY BUY IDEAFX:EURJPY
The weekly, daily are overall bullish; On the 1h price managed to break its bearish structure at the daily low pushing up and breaking above the 1h key support/resistance level and price making a retest as support the 1h key support/resistance area/zone. Entry is based on the 1h bullish engulfing candlestick at the 1h key support/resistance area/zone
22/01/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $43584.42
Last weeks low: $41935.80
Midpoint: $40287.19
With the BTC sell off underway post ETF approval, we start the week hovering just under the previous weeks low of 41.5k. This area is the key S/R zone in my opinion and for now it looks like BTC bulls are struggling to reclaim that level.
I previously stated in the last weeks outlook that there is a strong magnet pulling price towards the 33K area FVG . To reach that area and react positively off the level would be very bullish and should begin the next leg up towards 50K+ going into the run up for THE HALVING .
For now BTC bleeding is causing the altcoin market to do the same, however as normal altcoins do tend to bleed against BTC as well for example SOL is now sub $90 and falling, good opportunities will present themselves in the coming days/weeks for the next leg up in the Bullrun but patience is key.
In conclusion the ETF news was a sell the news event, Blackrock and others are scooping up large sums of BTC at discounted rates as market makers push the prices lower. That in turn drags altcoin prices down with it and now it seems we're heading towards the 30K's . My final target would be ~33K before looking towards becoming bullish again. I will rethink that plan if BTC was able to reclaim 41.5K with strength.
Short term bearish long term bullish
EURUSD SELL SETUPFX:EURUSD
A break below 1.08940 Daily support has simultaneously broken bullish structure on the 1h, 4h and daily timeframes changing my bias to a bearish bias. a retest back to the 1.08940 area as daily resistance and a 4h bearish engulfing candlestick is enough confluence/confirmation to short EURUSD.
GBPCAD sell setupFX:GBPCAD
The weekly, 4h and 1h timeframes are bearish giving me a bearish bias. Price broke below 1.70666 4h/1h support area simultaneously breaking bullish structure of the 1h and 4h. I am waiting on a pullback to the 1.70666 area which will now be the resistance area to look for sells on gbpcad
NZDJPY BUY ANALYSISOANDA:NZDJPY Overall structure based on the weekly, daily, 4h and 1h is bullish with price having broken above the 90.500 daily resistance and retesting as 90.500 daily support with price also retracing at 38,2% Fibonacci retracement level at the same 90.500 daily support. The bullish engulfing candlestick on the 4h is an overall strong confirmation to go long on NZDJPY