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25/09/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $27490.1 Last weeks low: $26897.7 Midpoint: $26305.4 Despite several big news events relating to the FED funds rate, CPI & PPI, we saw a much tighter range last week than the week previously. We're already trading lower than last weeks low and confirmed as resistance with a bearish retest. It is interesting that the news events that used to give us such volatility are now barely noticeable on the chart at all. This leads me to believe we're in the later stages of the bear market, where the speculative investors traders are no longer interested, the market makers are not interested in trading news events that are risky and therefore we have almost a stalemate in price action. When an asset like BTC fails to have buy side pressure/volume then price will naturally creep lower to find buyers, this is basic supply and demand and the reason for my prediction that we'll see a retest of that yearly open price around 19k in my opinion. By that point smart money will look to catapult BTC back towards ATH over the next couple of years. Survive the next 6-9 months and the patient shall be rewarded, we see it with every cycle.
by ProR35
18/09/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $26894.1 Last weeks low: $25873.8 Midpoint: $24853.5 After CPI and PPI news events that took place last week, we can see a clear uptrend after a deviation below the midpoint, then a reclaim and a move up higher. This week we have FOMC and the interest rate decision. The forecast is for the interest rate to remain the same at 5.50%. This decision has been priced in IMO but that doesn't rule out any potential whipsawing in the minutes up to and following the decision, we also have the press conference that can give some volatility too. However, if last weeks news events are anything to go by the volatility will be low compared to previous FOMC's. The bigger picture plan stays the same for me, I do think we're moving towards that yearly open retest before thinking about the run up to the halving and the bullrun beyond. A retest of 28k resistance with a bearish reaction off that level would further add confluence to this idea. As for now staying patient and looking for opportunities outside of the choppy price action.
by ProR35
29/08/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $26824.0 Last weeks low: $26045.0 Midpoint: $25266.0 The weekly outlook starts on Tuesday this week due to the bank holiday. Despite a strong decline 2 weeks ago price has stabilised into a much tighter spread, almost like a sinewave across the midpoint. Because of this for me personally there is no clear near term direction, however the longer term direction would seem to be bearish thinks to that new lower high after the pullback. We'll know for sure once a new lower high is posted. If that happens, I would expect most of this years progress to be retraced back down towards the 19k area by the end of the year/Q1 2024. For now there is not a lot to do as LTF chop is very difficult to navigate currently.
by ProR35
21/08/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $29678.9 Last weeks low: $26943.6 Midpoint: $24208.4 August so far has been living up to it's history of being a red month. Last week we saw price fall ~18.45% from weekly high to low, filling in the fair value gaps from the previous HTF rally and printing a new 1W lower high for the first time this year. Now that the FVG has been filled and a bit of volatility reintroduced into the market the next move is very important. For BTC to stand a chance in the near term I think the bulls need to reclaim the 1D 200EMA very quickly. Last weeks midpoint at 26942.4 is also approximately at the 1D 200EMA. However, If price rejects off that level when retesting it then I do think price will slowly find itself tending towards the yearly open of around 19k.
by ProR35
07/08/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $30039.5 Last weeks low: $29299.0 Midpoint: $28558.5 Historically, August has not been a very bullish month for bitcoin and crypto as a whole. Other than 2013, 2017 & 2021 (Bull market years) August has had negative ROI. The pattern shows that since 2013, every 4 years bitcoin has a positive monthly return coinciding with a bull market rally. If we were to apply this pattern to future returns, 2025 should have green August thanks to a bull market. We already know that the halving is taking place somewhere in Q2 of 2024, the US election in Q4 2024 along with potential BTC ETF's from Blackrock becoming closer and closer to reality. 2025 Could be a very strong year for the crypto market as a whole. In the short term, the way price has been behaving in recent weeks I would struggle to see why this August will be any different. For many weeks now I have believed that the target of 26.5K is in reach for the bears, approximately -9% from current price and when not including bull market years the average % return for the month is -9.8%. 2018's august returned -9.27%.
by ProR35
14/08/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $30265.2 Last weeks low: $29472.7 Midpoint: $28680.1 BTC continues to trade a very tight range as it has for many weeks now. 30k continues to be the resistance area, the previous weeks midpoint is the local resistance as its been tested for the last few days and cannot reclaim above. As usual that midpoint from the previous week is important to the direction of this week. We've had some talk about ETF's recently, the former SEC chief has said the SEC will not approve a spot Bitcoin ETF. Personally I believe the SEC will not want to approve an ETF, however eventually I think players like Blackrock will get what they want, they always do and I wouldn't be surprised if it miraculously gets approved around the halving event, and you can be sure Blackrock and the other big players like Valkyrie would have already bought a large chunk of BTC before the supply halves at much lower prices. Really that's what every trader/investor is waiting for because at the current moment there really isn't a lot of money/volume at all in the market. The start of this half of the year is evidence enough for that. Reserving capital for the big moves that come later down the line is essential and avoiding being chopped up by the market is a big priority.
by ProR35
29.5K PIVOT POINT After many days of sideways choppiness between 29 & 29.5K. The pattern was broke sending us into that FVG I have mentioned in previous posts with a target of 26.5K. However, having dropped down to 28.5k and back up to 30k in 11 hours some volatility has been reintroduced into the market in the short term. I have mapped out a mini range that I am observing, the 29.5K pivot is still the controlling factor in my mind. Now that price has deviated above and is now back in range printing a SFP, in addition to a bullish orderblock that is providing a reaction as the time of writing this post. I still think we have some downside to come should this reaction now clear the pivot point of 29.5K Because of this, I am still confident that reaching the 26.5k target is possible. Regaining 29.5k confidently and proof that it is now support would make me reconsider this strategy.
by ProR35
Overview of Cryptocurrency Volatility - 1h, November, 2022.Analysis of the volatility index in November. Time interval - 1 hour. Currency - USDT or equivalent to BUSD . The selection is carried out according to the lists of cryptocurrencies that are represented on the spot and futures markets, with a total of more than a hundred coins. Top 15 Coins (1 hour): 1. PHB /busd - 1413.67% (High&Low: 3119.4%) 2. MASK /usdt - 1386.55% (High&Low: 2940.2%) 3. BAND /usdt - 1266.71% (High&Low: 2605.56%) 4. AMB /busd - 1068.75% (High&Low: 2363.97%) 5. LEVER /busd - 1061.4% (High&Low: 2339.31%) 6. PEOPLE /usdt - 1034.08% (High&Low: 2146.72%) 7. DYDX /usdt - 1008.12% (High&Low: 2113.56%) 8. GTC /usdt - 1006.37% (High&Low: 2069.63%) 9. SFP /usdt - 959.68% (High&Low: 2125.98%) 10. CHZ /usdt - 946.32% (High&Low: 1971.69%) 11. SOL /usdt - 915.31% (High&Low: 1899.99%) 12. LIT /usdt - 874% (High&Low: 1793.31%) 13. DODO /busd - 869.22% (High&Low: 1759.8%) 14. AR /usdt - 857.38% (High&Low: 1782.73%) 15. SUSHI /usdt - 855.32% (High&Low: 1774.11%) The coin showed the worst result: BTC /usdt - 287.52% (High&Low: 644.26%) Thanks for your attention!
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by StCogitans
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24/07/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $30408.4 Last weeks low: $29885.7 Midpoint: $29363.0 For the first time in 4 weeks BTC has begun the week below 30K. The last time that happened price was at the ~26.5k but had a bullish momentum behind it. This time is different, the SEC Vs Ripple case (despite its positive outcome) has completely given up its gains and returned to the lower boundary of this long term range. A range that is becoming very compact in this previous week. The story is still the same in my opinion as it has been for some weeks now. 32.5k is still the target for the bulls to grab supply. The bears are looking to fill the large FVG all the way down to 26.5K area. In conclusion: IF price gets to 32.5k --> SFP back into range --> Short IF price gets to 26.5K --> Shows strength --> Long back up to local highs That's how I'm looking at this market, the chop is not very profitable right now for me.
by ProR35
10/07/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $ 31542.8 Last weeks low: $30610.1 Midpoint: $29677.4 Previous weeks price action tells an interesting tale. Beginning the week precisely on the midpoint of the week and ending on the 0.25 line. The choppiness from last week follows a similar pattern to weeks previous, the target for the bulls of 32.5k and above is still in sight. Last weeks new local high of 31.5k took out the previous local high but has now printed a swing fail pattern (SFP). With CPI on Wednesday this could be a high volatility event to get to that 32.5k wick and take liquidity in the supply zone. Just an idea. As of now there is quite a large FVG at around 27k and this should be the bears target. I think this has an equal chance of happening as the 32.5k, however, losing 29.1k and acceptance below that level will increase the possibility of that happening and the added confluence would prompt me to look to go long around that 27k level. We will see once we get there. Good luck to everyone this week!
by ProR35
03/07/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $31291.8 Last weeks low: $29420.6 Midpoint: $30356.2 The week starting on Monday 19th of June was the latest rally for bitcoin, a strong move up leaving some large FVG inefficiencies left behind that price will look to fill in the future. The upside capped off at just under 31.5k, a high that the bulls couldn't top last week while chopping sideways in a much tighter range than previous, and consolidating under the all important 32-32.5k region where a lot of traders will look to do business. This week for me will go one of two ways in my opinion: A slow and steady drop from current price down into those FVG areas, the main one being 27.2-27.75k. OR We wick up above recent highs, tag liquidity in the supply zone around 32.5k before a sharp sell off back into those FVG zones before anymore progress can be made above this range. FOMC minutes event on Wednesday may provide the volatility required for this liquidity grabbing wick.
by ProR35
SasanSeifi 💁‍♂️XAUUSD👉1H 1924 / 1928 / 1932❗🟡Hey there, buddy!✌ 🔱In the one-hour timeframe, as you can see, after the drop, the price bounced back from around $1893/ $1900 with some buying pressure. And now, it's in a range after breaking above the $1917 level. 💹 Here's what we can expect in the one-hour timeframe: after some consolidation and a small correction, the price might move up towards the resistance levels at $1924, $1928, and $1932 with some positive fluctuations. Then, we could see the price getting rejected from those resistance levels. To understand the next move better, let's see how the price reacts to those resistance levels. But if the price breaks above the important $1935 resistance level and holds steady, there's a good chance of further growth. This scenario will be filled out. The possible trends have also been identified. 🔱Just keep these scenarios in mind as you analyze the market. Remember, things can always change unexpectedly, so stay flexible in your trading approach. ❎ (DYOR)...⚠️⚜️ 🔹Wishing you loads of success in your trading adventures, my friend!✌️ 🔹And if you found my analysis helpful, I would appreciate it if you could show your support by liking and commenting. Thank you! 🙌 daily timeframe analysis 👇
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by SasanSeifi
26/06/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $31443.0 Last weeks low: $28847.4 Midpoint: $26251.8 BTC experienced a massive week of price action last week with nearly non stop climbing up to a high of nearly 31.5K. The all important 32K is still yet to be tagged this year however we have made new yearly highs with acceptance above 30K The news of a Bitcoin ETF cancelled out the SEC & Binance news, this week is very important for the crypto market in general. With consolidation under the local high it's gearing up for a push above to take out that liquidity above 32K. After that we have a large FVG near the 0.25 (27.5k) area that could require a revisit before continuing this bullish trend. There is a bullish orderblock at last weeks midpoint and that would be a healthy correction after a large rally. from there we can plan for what happens next.
by ProR35