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Bitcoin to 1 million by June? What is needed? Have you heard about former Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan's ludicrous bet that Bitcoin will reach 1 million by June due to the banking crisis? That's almost as crazy as late John McAfee's (RIP) bet back in the days. But let's get to the real question, how much "money" would it take for Bitcoin to reach such a valuation? Hmm...a pop quiz seems fun! How much money inflow is needed for Bitcoin to reach a 1 million USD valuation? a) 5 trillion USD b) 10 trillion USD c) 20 trillion USD d) nothing, hyperinflation will do the trick e) it's not possible, Bitcoin won't reach a million Put your answer in the comments right now, then come back and read on ... The answer might surprise you. Okay, ready? Let's dig in... Many folks might think that for Bitcoin to reach a 1M USD valuation, it's as simple as checking the current market cap and subtracting that from the total number of Bitcoins issued multiplied by 1 million. That would mean roughly 19,325,000 x 1,000,000 - 550,000,000,000 = 18,775,000,000 or 18.75T USD. But hold your horses! There are a couple of things to keep in mind. Approximately 80% of all issued bitcoins are being HODLed right now, meaning they are illiquid, the most significant number ever. This means that only 20% of 19,325,000 BTC or approximately 3,865,000 BTC is liquid and available for purchase. The actual number of BTC available on exchanges is even lower. Then there's the multiplier effect, averaging around 2.6 in the last 5 years. This effect means that for every $1 invested in Bitcoin, the market cap increased on average by $2.6, a fascinating side-effect of the supply and demand mechanism. Now let's calculate buying those liquid Bitcoins, keeping in mind the multiplier effect using the following formula. Inflow needed = liquid supply x 1,000,000 / 2.6 Calculated ► 3,865,000 x 1,000,000 / 2.6 = 1,486,538,461,538 USD or roughly 1.5 T. Quite a difference compared to 18.75T, right? This calculation, of course, is purely hypothetical and assumes that the current level of demand and supply remains constant. The actual price of bitcoin may vary due to a number of factors, such as changes in demand, supply, and market sentiment. Factors that could have a big impact: Large market orders would increase the multiplication factor as it pumps up the price much faster Certainly, some sell orders would be triggered at certain prices along the way, which increases the number of liquid BTC and thus the amount needed to pump to 1M The calculation did not keep in mind the BTC that will be mined till June, so we need to add some additional BTC in our calculations. Maybe most importantly, sell orders have the same multiplier effect, not to mention the panic selling that could occur if a large amount of BTC was sold at once. Nevertheless, the calculation above proves that less money is needed than previously thought for BTC to reach a 1M valuation. While I don't believe that we'll see that happening by June and this bet is outrageously bold, it does show that there is a possibility that if the banking issues continue and people see Bitcoin as a safe haven, we could reach a 1M Bitcoin faster than expected, with less inflow than expected. The point is that the faster this would happen, the less inflow would be needed. So there you have it! While Balaji Srinivasan's bet may seem outrageous and implausible, it's not as far-fetched as it might appear initially. With the right set of environmental circumstances, such as continued banking crises and increased adoption of Bitcoin as a safe haven asset, reaching a 1M valuation may be closer than we think. And now you know the (theoretical) calculation for how much money it would take to get there! What do you think? Does his bet make sense? If not, what is your prediction? Leave your thoughts in the comments and if you liked what you read here, pressing the little rocket (it really helps!) would be appreciated! Oh, and while you're here, why don't you check the idea below as well, an actual analysis of what I personally expect to happen till the next halving. (And no, it's not as crazy as this bet). Enjoy!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Nico.Muselle
47
Cardano (ADA) Summer Cycle 2020I have kept a close watch on the ADA trade activity in recent weeks and this pattern seems to keep coming back each year. For some reason, each summer (June-July-Aug) ADA seems to approach it's heaviest resistance/rejection zones than any other time of year (PUMP DUMP ZONE). As you see below we have a big gamble as things seem a bit different as of right now for ADA due to Shelly. If ADA can hold a stable range through July 19th - July 22nd 11.5cents to 13cents it's highly likely we will be on our way to break a 2-year pattern, meaning new highs in the range of 20cents to 40cent range can be coming in around Sep-Nov. To consider purchasing right now is up to variables: 1. things turn and wind up or down in the IOHK space in the next weeks while Charles H. (CEO) is on leave. 2. We also have to consider BTC is due for a correction in the coming month of August. as normal BTC correction cycles average about 55-60 days. 3. Hard fork coming to the network at the end of July
BINANCE:ADAUSD
by Lord_Raximus
1
1 Million? We'll be lucky if we get to 200k...According to fundamentals Bitcoin will become the only monetary and currency system. According to the chart, it will not. Still a great way to become a multimillionaire though. If you want to know how I calculated retracements, I couldn't really find a mathematical pattern. I only noticed that this time (considering 3100 the bottom) and in the last bear market, the price bottomed at the resistance before the big final bubble pump. in this way we can see that the price becomes less and less volatile: every peak is percentage-wise 4.8 times smaller than the latter, and every correction is smaller in percentage (87%, 84%, 60%, 40%...). We'll see if this time reality will bend to the chart pattern, or the chart pattern will rule over reality.
BNC:BLXLong
by PeterFranc
1
BTCUSD 1million in 2023 IDEA (Monthly Chart)Heard people saying BTC has the potential to hit 1 million so I decided to take a look at the monthly chart. It seems like there is a rising wedge pattern forming out and inside this wedge BTC has the room to go to 1 million. But as we know that the rising wedge is a bearish pattern the price will probably go down on some point. This is just an IDEA. Time will let us know what will really happen. Until then I would like to see some thoughts on the idea of BTC hitting 1 million dollars.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by minson
2
Two chains break 1 million tx barrier, one could surprise you!Steem and Ethereum are the two first chains to break 1 million transactions barrier. Ethereum struggled, Steem didnt care. Fundamental So in my crypto-portfolio you can see I have held Steem Dollars . That has given me greater returns than Steem would have. Now I want to switch, but increase portfolio level. I feel Steem is giving me a better risk/reward situation. So what makes me like Steem? It has in my view (even though I havent used it) a great platform. If you check their stats you can see they currently have 334.25K users and have given out 22.7M in rewards. That's some good numbers. I would recommend to try it out: www.steemit.com I think the userbase will grow strongly with the record breaking numbers that are entering cryptospace. That should equal higher price. Steem could potentially change some of the ways we do social media. Technical BTC pairs arent my favorite, but what can you do. Though, I am liking my pitchfork and planning to use for some very quick daytrades. Besides that I am looking at the fib levels and have outlined where I think we can meet resistance. My target for this is between the 0.786 and 1 from recent downturn. 80-100k sat :)
Long
by Kryptokelly
33