BONDS YIELD PREDICTION!!!!! US02YDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a macro analysis for 2 year bond yield on the Daily Timeframe.
POINTS:
1. Since the beginning of this upward trend on January 2022 we have seen that bonds and the overall market are said to share an inverse relationship but during pivotal moments that has not been the case as you can see that the stock market has risen along with bonds and vise versa .
2. Deviation in SUPLY & DEMAND POCKETS is clearly shown to be every 1% RISE IN YIELDS . (Refer to BLUE & ORANGE Horizontal Lines)
3. Before entry is made into a new DEMAND POCKET price action has a distinctive pump that has occurred several times. (Refer to white lines between SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS).
4. Predicted rise was formulated by using the average of previous last two pumps of +40.92% and +54.21% = +48% when rounded.
5. Average does in fact coincide with previous point of resistance when bond yields rose to 6% in the early 2000's. (A POINT THAT I WOULD CONSIDER TO BE A PIVOT POINT)
6. When you observe MACD we can also conclude that downward pressure is looking for relief like in past occasions.
SCENARIO #1: Bond Yields continue to rise and follow uptrend into early 2023 which can then signify that a market bottom is yet to be confirmed.
SCENARIO #2: Bond Yields break crucial SUPPORT OF 4.000% and will invalidate current setup. Possibly being followed by capitulation in the stock market since falls in yields seem to be more closely tied to falls in the overall market than the inverse relationship.
TVC:US02Y
