XAUUSD 1W ASCENDING TRIANGLEAscending Triangles are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Triangles and ranges are consolidation chart patterns that can breakout either direction.
Ascending and descending chart patterns will have a directional bias depending on the previous incoming trend.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
1w
$MDU Consolidation Before BreakoutTo wrap up the year I'm going to leave you all with one more idea I have my eyes on. In this situation, we're looking at $MDU.
MDU Resources Group is a stock that we have seen consolidate into two different patterns over the course of the last nine years. Both respective patterns have yielded excellent results as both have reached their respective targets. Now it is almost time for our third pattern to breakout.
This time we are seeing price consolidate into a three and a half year long rectangle.
I'm looking for a clear break (1W candle close) above the price of $30 (dotted purple line.) After we get a clear breakout above that level, I'm looking to enter a long position targeting the price of $36.20 for a gain of ~22%.
To further support the idea of a bullish breakout, we can see the 200 EMA resting below the breakout level, which adds to my conviction that we will see a breakout to the upside.
If you would like to see more of these ideas on a regular basis, follow me as I will be posting many more exciting chances to earn on chart pattern breakouts this upcoming year!
Drop a like or comment if you found this idea informational or helpful in any way. I wish everyone a happy and healthy new year!
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$INTC Bullish Consolidation Before Possible BreakoutAs this week of trading is nearing an end, I wanted to share another potential trading setup I've had my eyes on. In this setup we're looking at Intel Corp.
Back in late 2014/early 2015 this instrument began consolidating into an ascending triangle (bullish continuation pattern) and sure enough, price broke through the top side of the triangle and continued heading up to the point we're at now. Following the breakout of the previously mentioned ascending triangle, we can see price is now consolidating into a rectangle.
The 200 EMA has been resting comfortably below both setups as added support - giving me more conviction that we're about to see another break upwards.
I'm looking for a clear break and close above the $59.50 (dotted purple line) area.
Price is attempting to break that boundary with this week's 1W candle close.
If we get a clear close above this chart pattern boundary, I'm targeting price to reach previous all-time highs around $72.50
I hope everyone is having a great holiday season.
If you found this idea informative or helpful in any way, please leave a like or comment to let me know!
Cheers
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They have dialed in this gym experience
Weekly chart shows they have dialed it in for years
Most of weekly volume spikes are on bullish weeks
People are interested in this chart - volume is going up - volatility is going up
There is a continuous increase in the trend line angle
Anytime your trend line does a dramatic increase like this is called a bump and run.
The bump and run trend line is usually considered bearish but there are strong bullish signs still
Drilling down to 1D chart , notice hugh gap down on May 3rd
Gap down on positive earnings news
Drove down to 15m chart to find where volume spike came from
First few 15m candles drove price back up so gap spike from 1D came from positive moves
Most of the traders want this pair long
When most traders want price to go long you are probably in for a pullback
Price has been pushing up for some time so expecting some consolidation
Watch for an ascending triangle to develop
Sell when you see pullback on reduced volume and volatility
Buy at trend line bounce
If pullback did not come with reduced volume/volatility then enter with smaller size.
Use ATR to determine SL (1.5xATR)and TP (1xATR). When in profit take some off and move SL to break even.
Bitcoin will hit the MA 50 like a wallBTC just touched the 50 Moving Average on the Weekly chart (more relevant) and retracted quickly.
As of now it doesn't look like it has the "umpf" to go above it.
We will see in the next days.
My personal feeling is that the bulls need to regroup at this time as more buying power can be gathered at lower prices.
This is not trading advice, just my personal opinion.
Bitcoin Drop to $3000 area??As the bulls have slowed their progress in BTC and other cryptos like the lonesome LTC in its push upwards, it seems a correction is definitely not out of the question for the coming months. The downward channel in BTC is still clear and still unbroken and as we see a push up to the top side of the channel we have had a large amount of resistance from the bears. It is a risky time to gamble on a position in BTC as a bull so tread carefully. I think a push to $3000 is possible, this is where we will see a large support if we fall that low. I hope that will be the bottom for BTC but nothing can be said for sure, we will just have to wait and see.
On another note, what if we see a short squeeze instead of a drop to $3000 as the bears are gearing up to short BTC? Im not counting on it but if this is all speculative then why not imagine what might happen on the flip side.
I am very much a beginner and just want to make observations and learn from them! My simple analysis is for fun and learning, please do not make trading decisions based on my observations - like I said I am just a beginner.
Thanks so much for reading my analysis, please follow me and like my post!
- Max K.
gbpnzd short term bullish but long term bearishon the gbpnzd, price formed a large rising wedge pattern while creating a smaller version straight after. I believe price will touch support zone as it has been tested many times from the two patterns.
lower timeframe consists of different setup so stay online for that one.
usd/chf short term bullish, long term bearishOn the usd/chf, I see a major bearish move from the resistance zone. Waiting for minor bullish flag to break out and retest the resistance. Looking for market to delve into lower prices at around approx 0.94 and 0.92 area range
Break from the bullish flag could be used for short term long trade while waiting for price to reach resistance zone.
Around the resistance zone is where I will be looking for entry on lower timeframe.
GBPJPY outlook: Short term & Long term view.1W:
GBPJPY broke out of a descending trend line last week, exposing the pair to further potential upside movement.
A retest of the trend line may occur before price starts to increase.
4H:
On the 4H chart we can see price broke and closed below a short term ascending trend line, opening up possibility for a short term decline in price.
Trading plan:
Going into the week ahead we would like to sell the pair short-term upon a retest of the broken 4H trend line & a bearish 4H candle close.
We would then wait for bullish price action signal when price reaches the reversal zone & find entries to long-term buy trades.
Be aware of any upcoming high impact economic news for GBP & JPY. Brexit speeches/news which may cause large spikes.
Updates will be posted as this trade plays out.
EUR/USD: Net-Long Traders Flood In Since Last WeekNET-LONG POSITIONS SPIKE 52.7% SINCE LAST WEEK
FOLLOW Our Profile- www.tradingview.com
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 56.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.32 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 4.7% higher than yesterday and 52.7% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.0% lower than yesterday and 30.9% lower from last week.
To gain more insight to how we use sentiment to power our trading, join us for our weekly Trading Sentiment webinar.
BEARISH BIAS LURKS OVER EUR/USD
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.
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Rejected on a New 1W Lower High, RIPPLE / U.S. DOLLAR XRPUSDXRPUSD broke the previous Channel Down on 1D on fundamental reasons and managed to test 0.79, which is still a Lower High on 1W. Since this price was also inside the 0.681 - 0.786 (0.68967 - 0.81315) Fibonacci retracement zone since the last 0.96716 1W Lower High in April, we expect the price to make an equally quick technical gap fill as the equivalent rise. We have used those levels to short again with TP = 0.27100 (gap fill).
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LNG gas expansion entryLNG gas prices becoming attractive and not at mercy of US-CH trade war 10% tax as first thought.
China leads the pack in LNG imports and has 10-yr contracts, wahahhaha.
LNG GLNG SHI TELL NEXT
Here shows a solid entry with strong legs from Fibretracement at 786 on love it the 1w chart and not as good on 1d chart, so more confident to hit higher highs from current $9.
LNG gas will do well provided ships run, weather good, but it's hurricane or monsoon season.
Target 1 over $12 and Target 2 more likely $15 up.
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 128)Current Outlook
1-2 weeks: neutral-bullish
2 weeks - 12 months: bearish
1-2+ years: Super bullish
Three days ago I changed my short term outlook from bearish to neutral and over the past couple days I have been leaning bullish for the very near term (1-2 weeks). That is due to the tweezer bottom on the weekly chart, breaking a Bill Williams Fractal on the daily chart, breaking out of the down trend that started on 5/5, the Ichimoku Cloud being out of equilibrium and the bullish crossovers on the shorter term EMA’s .
If that sounds overwhelming then take a deep breathe and let’s go through each indication step-by-step.
Tweezer Bottom on the weekly chart is self-explanatory
The Bill Williams Fractals are in yellow and you will notice that we haven’t broken above one since 5/5 when the downtrend started. We got very close on 6/7 but managed to stay slightly below. We did break a fractal on 6/30 when we traded above $6,358. That triggered the stop losses on my BTC:USD and ETH:USD shorts and was my first major indication of a short term reversal.
We had been steadily resisting the trend line from 5/5 and when that broke it served as confirmation of a short term reversal.
When looking at the Ichimoku Cloud on the 3 day chart we can see a large C-Clamp which indicates how far out of equilibrium we currently are. That indicates short term oversold conditions and tells me that this bounce could go much higher than originally expected. The long, flat cloud at $10,400 indicates the furthest I would expect to bounce. If we do get to that price then I would be viewing it as a high probability short.
We currently have a bullish crossover on the 12 and 26 period EMA’s on the following timeframes: 1h, 2h, 4h, 6h, and 12h. As noted yesterday we continue to trade in between those EMA’s on the daily chart. If wanting to make a bullish entry waiting for those EMA's to crossover on the daily chart should be your best bet.
Even with all of the short term bullish indicators it is possible to continue to drawdown at any moment. The daily chart is threatening a tweezer top along with a bearish spinning top and that could be all that is needed for the bears to start selling aggressively again.
I am going to continue waiting on the sidelines for further development. I am still holding onto my ETH:BTC shorts from 0.07479 - 0.07844 and have set the stop loss at 0.0731. I am finding it very interesting that ETH:USD and ETH:BTC have not broken through the downtrend like Bitcoin has.
This is a great time of year to get outside and enjoy the weather while waiting for the market to develop! Instead of biting my nails and watching the order book I will be playing golf and softball this evening.
Thank you for your time! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
Amazon continues to go up, more volitility.Keep a watch on the US Treasury on the TVC:US10Y and TVC:US02 bonds, as well as the equity market, as these are volatile. CBOE:VIX The Fed will continue to raise rates over the next few weeks. Amazon continues to go through this growth over the next month, but over the next month, sell to minimize losses and buy the dip.
AMZN continuing to crash into the next week.Amazon.com shares are just overvalued and overbought at this moment. After the crash it will gain momentum again. Amazon continuing to go down tomorrow, will rise slightly in the next trading session, but will fall to 1200 by Tue. Continue to check VIX and Nasdaq Composite, there are better stocks out there.
EURJPY > Buy OpportunityEURJPY > Long Probability
1D / 1W
Area of Interest: 133.25 / 133.30
T/P @ 135.30
S/L @ 132.70
Expecting consolidation toward 134.00 /134.40 level with possible break above toward 135.00/60 levels.
A break below 132.70 could see decline toward 131.66 area where bullish rebound would be expected.
Pullback to 133.25/30 level is required for set-up to remain valid.
* Personal analysis only. Please use your own rules and strategies prior to entering market.
** Forex trading involves HIGH RISK.
Before entering a trade, carefully consider your objectives, financial resources and level of experience.