Bitcoin Drop to $3000 area??As the bulls have slowed their progress in BTC and other cryptos like the lonesome LTC in its push upwards, it seems a correction is definitely not out of the question for the coming months. The downward channel in BTC is still clear and still unbroken and as we see a push up to the top side of the channel we have had a large amount of resistance from the bears. It is a risky time to gamble on a position in BTC as a bull so tread carefully. I think a push to $3000 is possible, this is where we will see a large support if we fall that low. I hope that will be the bottom for BTC but nothing can be said for sure, we will just have to wait and see.
On another note, what if we see a short squeeze instead of a drop to $3000 as the bears are gearing up to short BTC? Im not counting on it but if this is all speculative then why not imagine what might happen on the flip side.
I am very much a beginner and just want to make observations and learn from them! My simple analysis is for fun and learning, please do not make trading decisions based on my observations - like I said I am just a beginner.
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- Max K.
1w
gbpnzd short term bullish but long term bearishon the gbpnzd, price formed a large rising wedge pattern while creating a smaller version straight after. I believe price will touch support zone as it has been tested many times from the two patterns.
lower timeframe consists of different setup so stay online for that one.
usd/chf short term bullish, long term bearishOn the usd/chf, I see a major bearish move from the resistance zone. Waiting for minor bullish flag to break out and retest the resistance. Looking for market to delve into lower prices at around approx 0.94 and 0.92 area range
Break from the bullish flag could be used for short term long trade while waiting for price to reach resistance zone.
Around the resistance zone is where I will be looking for entry on lower timeframe.
GBPJPY outlook: Short term & Long term view.1W:
GBPJPY broke out of a descending trend line last week, exposing the pair to further potential upside movement.
A retest of the trend line may occur before price starts to increase.
4H:
On the 4H chart we can see price broke and closed below a short term ascending trend line, opening up possibility for a short term decline in price.
Trading plan:
Going into the week ahead we would like to sell the pair short-term upon a retest of the broken 4H trend line & a bearish 4H candle close.
We would then wait for bullish price action signal when price reaches the reversal zone & find entries to long-term buy trades.
Be aware of any upcoming high impact economic news for GBP & JPY. Brexit speeches/news which may cause large spikes.
Updates will be posted as this trade plays out.
EUR/USD: Net-Long Traders Flood In Since Last WeekNET-LONG POSITIONS SPIKE 52.7% SINCE LAST WEEK
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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 56.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.32 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 4.7% higher than yesterday and 52.7% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.0% lower than yesterday and 30.9% lower from last week.
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BEARISH BIAS LURKS OVER EUR/USD
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.
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Rejected on a New 1W Lower High, RIPPLE / U.S. DOLLAR XRPUSDXRPUSD broke the previous Channel Down on 1D on fundamental reasons and managed to test 0.79, which is still a Lower High on 1W. Since this price was also inside the 0.681 - 0.786 (0.68967 - 0.81315) Fibonacci retracement zone since the last 0.96716 1W Lower High in April, we expect the price to make an equally quick technical gap fill as the equivalent rise. We have used those levels to short again with TP = 0.27100 (gap fill).
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LNG gas expansion entryLNG gas prices becoming attractive and not at mercy of US-CH trade war 10% tax as first thought.
China leads the pack in LNG imports and has 10-yr contracts, wahahhaha.
LNG GLNG SHI TELL NEXT
Here shows a solid entry with strong legs from Fibretracement at 786 on love it the 1w chart and not as good on 1d chart, so more confident to hit higher highs from current $9.
LNG gas will do well provided ships run, weather good, but it's hurricane or monsoon season.
Target 1 over $12 and Target 2 more likely $15 up.
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 128)Current Outlook
1-2 weeks: neutral-bullish
2 weeks - 12 months: bearish
1-2+ years: Super bullish
Three days ago I changed my short term outlook from bearish to neutral and over the past couple days I have been leaning bullish for the very near term (1-2 weeks). That is due to the tweezer bottom on the weekly chart, breaking a Bill Williams Fractal on the daily chart, breaking out of the down trend that started on 5/5, the Ichimoku Cloud being out of equilibrium and the bullish crossovers on the shorter term EMA’s .
If that sounds overwhelming then take a deep breathe and let’s go through each indication step-by-step.
Tweezer Bottom on the weekly chart is self-explanatory
The Bill Williams Fractals are in yellow and you will notice that we haven’t broken above one since 5/5 when the downtrend started. We got very close on 6/7 but managed to stay slightly below. We did break a fractal on 6/30 when we traded above $6,358. That triggered the stop losses on my BTC:USD and ETH:USD shorts and was my first major indication of a short term reversal.
We had been steadily resisting the trend line from 5/5 and when that broke it served as confirmation of a short term reversal.
When looking at the Ichimoku Cloud on the 3 day chart we can see a large C-Clamp which indicates how far out of equilibrium we currently are. That indicates short term oversold conditions and tells me that this bounce could go much higher than originally expected. The long, flat cloud at $10,400 indicates the furthest I would expect to bounce. If we do get to that price then I would be viewing it as a high probability short.
We currently have a bullish crossover on the 12 and 26 period EMA’s on the following timeframes: 1h, 2h, 4h, 6h, and 12h. As noted yesterday we continue to trade in between those EMA’s on the daily chart. If wanting to make a bullish entry waiting for those EMA's to crossover on the daily chart should be your best bet.
Even with all of the short term bullish indicators it is possible to continue to drawdown at any moment. The daily chart is threatening a tweezer top along with a bearish spinning top and that could be all that is needed for the bears to start selling aggressively again.
I am going to continue waiting on the sidelines for further development. I am still holding onto my ETH:BTC shorts from 0.07479 - 0.07844 and have set the stop loss at 0.0731. I am finding it very interesting that ETH:USD and ETH:BTC have not broken through the downtrend like Bitcoin has.
This is a great time of year to get outside and enjoy the weather while waiting for the market to develop! Instead of biting my nails and watching the order book I will be playing golf and softball this evening.
Thank you for your time! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
Amazon continues to go up, more volitility.Keep a watch on the US Treasury on the TVC:US10Y and TVC:US02 bonds, as well as the equity market, as these are volatile. CBOE:VIX The Fed will continue to raise rates over the next few weeks. Amazon continues to go through this growth over the next month, but over the next month, sell to minimize losses and buy the dip.
AMZN continuing to crash into the next week.Amazon.com shares are just overvalued and overbought at this moment. After the crash it will gain momentum again. Amazon continuing to go down tomorrow, will rise slightly in the next trading session, but will fall to 1200 by Tue. Continue to check VIX and Nasdaq Composite, there are better stocks out there.
EURJPY > Buy OpportunityEURJPY > Long Probability
1D / 1W
Area of Interest: 133.25 / 133.30
T/P @ 135.30
S/L @ 132.70
Expecting consolidation toward 134.00 /134.40 level with possible break above toward 135.00/60 levels.
A break below 132.70 could see decline toward 131.66 area where bullish rebound would be expected.
Pullback to 133.25/30 level is required for set-up to remain valid.
* Personal analysis only. Please use your own rules and strategies prior to entering market.
** Forex trading involves HIGH RISK.
Before entering a trade, carefully consider your objectives, financial resources and level of experience.
AUDUSD > Short OpportunityAUDUSD - Short @ 0.78750
1W
IND: 20 SMA / 50 EMA
Area of Interest: 0.78750 > 0.78970
T/P 1 @ 0.7770
T/P 2 @ 0.7733
T/P 3 @ 0.7700
Extended @ 0.76600
* Personal analysis only. Please use your own rules and strategies prior to entering market.
** Forex trading involves HIGH RISK.
Before entering a trade, carefully consider your objectives, financial resources and level of experience.
NZDUSD > Short OpportunityNZDUSD - Psychological Support Broken
1W > IND: 10SMA / Elliot Wave
Pair broke psychological support @ 0.70000 reaching 0.69700 setting new 5-Month low
Further decline expected toward 0.69070 / 0.68440 levels
Key resistance @ 0.70550 w/anticipated upward movement expected to be held by 0.71020 representing falling 10SMA.
* Personal analysis only. Please use your own rules and strategies prior to entering market.
** Forex trading involves HIGH RISK.
Before entering a trade, carefully consider your objectives, financial resources and level of experience.
USDCHF > Entry Point AnalysisUSDCHF- 1W > 10/22/2017
IND: 20 SMA / 100 SMA
Broken resistance @ 0.9835 indicates further rise to 0.9990 testing w/20 SMA adding additional confirmation to uptrend.
Break of 0.9846 from weekly 100 SMA adds confirmation to upward momentum, IMO.
Break and Hold above 0.9990 indicates further rise to 1.0342 re-test resistance.
Key support @ 0.9736 with break and hold below would indicate decline toward 0.9587 re-test.
Personal bias: Bullish
* Personal analysis only. Please use your own rules and strategies prior to entering market.
** Forex trading involves HIGH RISK.
Before entering a trade, carefully consider your objectives, financial resources and level of experience.
EURJPY > Entry Point AnalysisEURJPY - 1W > 10/22/2017
Pair remains trading in 131.69 - 134.39 range
Decisive Break and Hold above 134.39 indicates further rise to 141.04 re-test in longterm
Decisive Break and Hold below 131.69 indicates further decline to re-test of 127.55 support in longterm
Personal bias: Neutral
* Personal analysis only. Please use your own rules and strategies prior to entering market.
** Forex trading involves HIGH RISK.
Before entering a trade, carefully consider your objectives, financial resources and level of experience.
USDJPY > Resistance and Support TradingUSDJPY > Week of October 22, 2017
Pivot Point @ 113.20
R3 114.97 R2 114.28 R1 113.90
S1 112.82 S2 112.13 S3 111.75
Overall bias: Bullish to 114.40 > 114.86 w/ possible test to 115.00 area
* Personal analysis only. Please use your own rules and strategies prior to entering market.
** Forex trading involves HIGH RISK.
Before entering a trade, carefully consider your objectives, financial resources and level of experience.
USDCAD > Resistance and Support TradingUSDCAD > Week of October 22, 2017
Pivot Point @ 1.25780
R3 1.28380 R2 1.27350 R1 1.26810
S1 1.25240 S2 1.24210 S3 1.23670
Overall bias: Bullish to 1.27745
* Personal analysis only. Please use your own rules and strategies prior to entering market.
** Forex trading involves HIGH RISK.
Before entering a trade, carefully consider your objectives, financial resources and level of experience.