Detailed analysis of BTC price and halvings since its inceptionHello everyone, I would like to present what repeatability can be determined in more detail by analyzing the BTC chart, taking into account the 3 halvings we experienced and the fourth which lies ahead.
We have a log BTC chart from 2011 to today in front of us.
We will start by designating the places where BTC has done its halving, as you can see, the first halving took place in November 2012, the second halving in June 2016, the third halving in May 2020, and we also mark the halving which should be in April 2024 .
On the other hand, we mark the middle between the halves with white lines.
We will use a green box to mark the gaps between the edible and the other half so that we can see this space and repetition more clearly.
For the analysis, we will use the blue lines which represent the way btc moves, one line indicates the lowest price points, and we can see that btc touches the line repeatedly, and in the same way we can mark the places where price has reached its ATH.
It is worth noting that with the first halving, btc fell by about 86% from its ATH
on the second halving he was down about 84% from his ATH
with a 3 fold reduction, the decrease from ATH so far is about 74%.
The current low is 74% where the blue line is, but BTC sometimes has a quick dip in the candlestick which could be around 82% from the ATH.
Given the repeatability between halves, the current maximum opening should be around $ 10,500, however, here we have confirmation of the low at $15,200, which gives a decline of 78%.
Now we use the mean measure tool marked with the purple line and we can see that every time we cut it in half, as the average goes through half the period to half, the cane consolidates and then the price drops below our purple line.
Moving on, we also see that after each drop below average around the half of the halving, the price started to rebound and break the first trend denoted by the white line as well as exiting the yellow area, then breaking the second trend and exiting the second yellow area.
Thus, breaking the first trend is a pro-growth period, and breaking the second trend is a pro-growth period followed by price increases.
Currently, we have not yet broken the first trend, given the cyclical nature of btc and the fact that large capital is distributed similarly and often all negative news is already included in the price, we can assume that the situation will repeat itself. After breaking the second trend and breaking above the average, the price will start rising again.
Finally, we present a visualization of how the btc price may possibly move to the next halving in the coming time, we mark the path that the price may follow with a white line.
Based on available data, we know that the difference between ATH is approximately 6.25 times in each cycle. However, the percentage increase from trough to peak in each subsequent cycle decreases by almost 6 times.
Taking into account all the data, we can predict that in the current cycle the BTC price could reach a level ranging from $70,000 to $99,000, which is marked with the blue zone on the chart. However, as it is already widely known, work on an ETF for BTC is underway, a positive decision to issue such an ETF could completely change the market and take it to new levels. And taking into account the first gold ETF that gave a price increase of 10X, in a similar situation the BTC price could increase to huge levels in the orange zone to the levels of $ 170,000 - $ 225,000.
However, the BTC ETF can also be a threat, when it is rejected it can have a very negative impact on the entire market.
Please remember that these are not investment recommendations, everyone is responsible for their financial games, these are just our observations about the market and how the price moves.
