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2008

AHTI see a bottom here --> high volume in weekly for 2020 and 2021 --> higher lows I will buy when a pullback happens and react with BIG volume making us another higher low. I have another option: as the volume seems to get bigger and bigger, and we may reach higher than the previous top with the pump in 2020, I might get in if we get a good response from the price there. consider, if you want to do so, that the STOP LOSS will be close to the entry price, and if the price will fall in the triangle again, you will HAVE to close your position (and buy back as it makes a higher low as we said in the first place)
NYSE:AHT
by camelot0707
EURAUD: Bearish TheoryTwo global economic crises so close together in world history, what are the odds? In 2008, the USA stock market bottomed out and began it's recovery just as the EURAUD pair hit a top and sold off. This correlation to the SPX, from a global market view, is interesting because there is such a great shift from negative 80 to positive 80 in a 4 year span after the 2008 recovery. It will be interesting to learn how this trend plays out in the coming years. The correlation coefficient has been dropping as the prices are starting to diverge negatively again. If it's anything like last time, we could be starting a long-term bearish trend in the pair. Or, the positive correlation holds strong and leads the pair up during the recovery. Or, the least likely scenario, the correlation holds but the pair drops like last time and the SPX goes down with it. Check back in three years.
by The_Arena_Trader
1
UNDERSTAND THE EURODOLLAR!THE EURODOLLAR FUTURES CONTRACT REFLECTS THE L.I.B.O.R. INTEREST RATE (A BENCHMARK FOR THE INTEREST RATE AT WHICH MAJOR BANKS LEND TO EACH OTHER)! WHEN THE PRICE OF THE CONTRACT INCREASES, THE L.I.B.O.R. INTEREST RATE IS DECREASING, WHEN THE PRICE FALLS, IT IS INCREASING! THE PERIOD I HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THIS POST IS THE PERIOD OF DOLLAR ILLIQUIDITY THAT OCCURRED IN THE LATE 00s-EARLY 10s! AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE INTERVENED AND PROVIDED LIQUIDITY, L.I.B.O.R. WAS SUPPRESSED, AND THE SIZE OF THE INTERVENTION ALMOST PUSHED THE RATE TO 0! THE SIZE OF THE INTERVENTION IS IMPORTANT IN THAT IT REFLECTS THE SIZE OF THE PROBLEM, INDICATING THAT THE GLOBAL LACK OF DOLLARS WAS SEVERE! WHILE THE INTERVENTION SUCCEEDED IN SUPPRESSING L.I.B.O.R. OVERALL, THERE WERE SEVERAL PERIODS DURING WHICH THE LACK OF AVAILABLE U$Ds CAUSED LENDING BETWEEN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS TO CONTRACT, INCREASING L.I.B.O.R., CAUSING A NUMBER OF PROBLEMS AND FORCING FURTHER ACTION BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE! THE 2008 GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS WAS NOT NECESSARILY CAUSED BY A REDUCTION IN U.S. HOME PRICES, BUT BY A SYSTEMIC BANKING DOLLAR SHORTAGE! THE LACK OF U$Ds REMAINS, AND HAS EVEN INCREASED, HOWEVER ENTIRE NATIONS ARE AT RISK OF SUFFERING THE CONSEQUENCES, NOT ONLY THEIR BANKS! NOW THE IMPORTANT QUESTIONS ARE: 1. IS THE GLOBAL ECONOMY NOW DEPENDENT ON THE FEDERAL RESERVE PROVIDING NEW U$Ds TO AVOID A COMPLETE DEFLATIONARY COLLAPSE? (MOST LIKELY YES) 2. IS THE FEDERAL RESERVE ABLE TO SATISFY THE INTERNATIONAL DEMAND FOR U$Ds, NOT IN TERMS OF AMOUNT, BUT IN TERMS OF DEPTH, REACHING FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND CORPORATIONS NOT DIRECTLY TIED TO THE MAJOR U.S. BANKS? (QUITE POSSIBLY NO, BUT THEY WILL TRY THEIR HARDEST) 3. IF WE ASSUME THIS IS THE DEATH RATTLE OF THE DOLLAR'S WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS, WHICH IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME, THAT IT IS INFLATED AWAY OR THAT IT IMPLODES ON ITSELF? (I WOULD ARGUE GIVEN THE FED'S ACTIONS, THAT IT WILL BE INFLATED AWAY) 4. REGARDLESS OF HOW THE LOSS OF RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS OCCURS, A CONSEQUENCE OF THIS PROCESS WILL BRING ABOUT A COMPLETE SELL-OFF IN THE U.S. TREASURY MARKET, FORCING THE FEDERAL RESERVE TO COMPLETELY MONETIZE THESE BONDS TO PREVENT INTEREST RATES FROM RISING: IF THIS UNFOLDS, CAN ANY OTHER POSSIBILITY BUT HYPERINFLATION BE CONSIDERED? (NO)
GEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
5
Australia - Watch for a Rally - Then Jump ShipLet's start with the broader picture first I understand the market looks horrific at press time, but the first thing that you must know about markets is this, nothing every goes in one direction forever, no matter how bad it seems. For context here are the three major US stock crashes. 2008 Crash 2000 Tech wreck 1929 Great Depression The second thing that you must know is that a market will TYPICALLY, not always, but typically will retrace 50% of the first wave before continuing lower, as seen in the above charts. In the most recent price action, this would entail a bounce to around 5400-5900, this is a prime opportunity to lighten exposure and prepare for another leg lower. Now, we may not get a bounce to the 50% fib level, but a move to the 38.2% is highly likely, at this point i would begin to lighten exposure and begin to buy shorting instruments, i.e. Puts. Now, where do i see the potential low? If the prior crashes throughout history are any gauge, then a top to bottom move of 50% is very likely, with the 1929 crash closer to 90%, i expect at worst we could see a middle ground, call it around 70%. This would be heavily dependent on Covid19 being far worse than governments are expecting, and a extended period of lock-down, which at press time, must not be discounted. That being said, the first targets are a "typical" 50% move from the peak, as you can see, this would erase ALL gains from the past 20 years, taking the index back to levels first reached in 2001. The third thing you must know about markets is that they go up in the long-term, emphasis on LONG-TERM. After the 2007 peak, it took over 4,300 DAYS to retread those levels. Do you have 12 years to wait? Bear in mind also, this index is not inflation adjusted, if one inflation adjusts the index we never made new highs, in other words, it has been over 13 years and we are yet to make new highs. What about Real Estate? I have long maintained the Australian real estate market is a bubble, ready to burst, with valuations in some areas exceeding over 10:1 income to Value ratios (IVR), this was inevitable and the bubble appears to be finally bursting, so no, your equity in your house will not save you. In fact, real estate priced in gold, is breaking out of a decade long slumber, what this means is that your home may gain nominal value, as governments feebly attempt to print enough money to cover the cracks, but your home will in reality be hemorrhaging real purchasing power. Welcome to the word of relative values, where your house can both go up AND down in value, simultaneously. In short, Australia has a weak economy, i have not even touched on the consumers and households overburdened with debt, the over reliance on the services industry as a primary source of GDP or the super fragile banking system, which by the way, have a huge number of "interest only loans" switching to principle and interest, over the next 18 months. Hmmm... wonder how the general households will deal with those. -TradingEdge Interest only loans: www.rba.gov.au
ASX:XAOShort
by Profit_Link
3
Crash Comparison - 1929, 2000, 2008 and 2020 1929 - Crash 2000 - Crash 2008 -Crash 2020 - Crash Which of the prior three major crashes most closely resemble the 2020 crash? Certainly, not the 2000 crash, the initial drop is of equal magnitude, however the 2000 crash took over 365 days to reach that low from the highs, the 2020 crash has plumbed lower than 30% in just over 30 days. Similar story for the 2008 initial crash, the final leg down in 2008 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers would be the closest match, but this is still not equal to the magnitude drop we are experiencing in 2020, when you consider that the post Lehman drop was 48% over 150 days, this equates to roughly 0.3% a day, the 2020 drop by comparison is closer to 3x times the rate of drop, at over 1.0% per day in decline. Even the initial 1929 stock market drop, that eventually lead to the great depression took 3x times as long to reach the 30% range. Yes, the macro environments for these drops were very different, i understand this. But it is worth considering just how unique these markets are at present time, with a combination of automated trading, real-time news feeds, easier access for retail investors and far higher leverage than ever before, this creates a highly volatile trading environment that can pivot at a moments notice. My personal belief is that the pain is not over, there will be a bounce at some point, however i will not be participating in that rally, i will be waiting to short. I think the ultimate bottom will be between the three crashes highlighted here, not quite the 90% devastation of the 1929 crash, but also not a 'typical' crash of 50% either. It may sound crazy now, but, i do believe that the SP-500 "COULD," emphasis on "COULD" be lower than at the 2008 peak before the market bottom, in other words, i believe that the last decade of market gains may very well be erased. This will obviously be dependent on the handling of Covid19 by governments around the world, this is not due to the loss of life (although that would be a global tragedy), it is instead due to the wave of defaults and bankruptcies that could flow out of this crisis as a result of the social distancing policies that governments will HAVE TO, not may have to, but have to employ in order to flatten the curve. This will include businesses closing for for several weeks, potentially even several months, this in turn will cripple airlines, cruise ships, hotels, casinos and a host of other industries. Many of which are currently looking to the federal government for a bailout, this is also not mentioning the small businesses and how they will be impacted, or the knock on effects that this will have on employment, or lack thereof. In short, the economic impacts and the societal impacts that will flow from the Covid19 virus are far-reaching, the macro environment is nothing like 2000 or 2008, the system is MORE unstable, not less, couple this with the potential for 1929 style unemployment and you have a recipe for disaster. -TradingEdge
SP:SPX
by Profit_Link
5
S&P500 Monthly Chart - 2020 Correction Still Not Over...Using a monthly chart of the S&P 500 I am simply charting two interesting characteristics based solely on longer-term technical analysis and charting: 1) what percentage was the drop in 2008 SPX levels and what was the corresponding percentage drop in the stochastic RSI level (to see at what level was it oversold) vs what percentages we have dropped for the same parameters currently in March 2020. 2) at what moving average level did we hit a bottom in 2008 and what could this imply for 2020: I am using a moving averages of 90, 200 and 365 for the monthly chart. 2008: 1) % Drop: the S&P500 dropped approximately by 53% and the RSI reading fell by 98%. 2) We also hit a bottom at the monthly moving average of 365 back then. 2020: 1) I was curious to see what a 53% drop from the all-time highs in 2020 would look like and how much more room there was in terms of both price level and the RSI to drop: both indicate that to get to a similar level correction in terms of % drop, we have quite some more room to go down near the 1600s in the SPX. 2) Also If 2008 is any guidance then the ultimate bottom could be the 365 day moving average for 2020 which would be a catastrophic drop from the 2020 all-time highs. Final thoughts: In my opinion, we are witnessing a historic economic AND financial de-leveraging. We have never ever had a global sudden economic stop. So while comparisons to 2008 aren't entirely accurate, it the 2008 global financial crisis serves as some point of reference. Without the need to spew further doom and gloom, it is abundantly clear that this sudden coordinated global halt in business and services is nothing short of spectacular and we may very well evolve from the current recession to a depression. While the speed of global central banks to enact policy and local governments fiscal policy stimulus have been tremendous in size and speed, this new environment we are in seems to be way more than just a virus. It seems more and more that there was a global desire for a debt/economic reset and this virus pandemic serves as the perfect environment to start the process. So even though tactically we could see a small rally, it would likely be short-lived and would be the ultimate bull-trap as the strategic longer-term direction is still bearish both from my technical view point and the economic/financial deleveraging context. ***the above analysis is my opinion only and should not be taken as trading advice. You alone are solely responsible for all and any of your trading decisions. All of your decisions should be be analyzed, researched and validated and must be be based on your own judgement."
TVC:SPXShort
by arigolden
GBPUSD MONTHLY OVERVIEW "LOOK LEFT STRUCTURE LEAVES CLUE" PRICE FORMED A 3 DRIVES PATTERN IN BETWEEN 1998 AND 2007 WITH TARGETS PROGECTIONS…; @1.70470 @1.36830 @1.16617 @0.90590 BETWEEN 2010 AND 2018 PRICE HAS FORMED A 5-0 WE EXTEND A FIBONACCI EXTENSION FROM JUL 14 TO OCT 16 TO APR 18 AND WE HAVE THE 100% RIGHT @0.90590 FOR THE 4TH 3 DRIVE TARGET PRICE WILL BE FORMING AN ABC 100% SYMMETRY PATTERN @0.90590 WHERE PRICE COULD GIVE A POSITIVE REACTION HAVING IN MIND THE WAY AN ABC IS TRADED…. 1ST TRADE BELLOW A @1.43767 OCT 16 LOW TO @0.90590 100@ SYMMETRY 2ND IF PRICE GIVE US AND FORMED ANY INDICATION OF BULLISNES @0.90590… THEM WE TRADE BACK TO A @1.43767 OCT 16 LOW FOR A CORRECTION AT THIS POINT WE COULD HAVE A CORRECTION OR A FURTHER RALLY TO B APR 18 @1.43767
Short
by TradeChartPatternsLikeThePros
4
CURRENTLY DOW JONES MARKET STRUCTURE SIMILAR TO 2008Hi everyone, this post is not to scare anyone but, after doing some analysis I've been watching the 200 weekly ema closely. If we hold at the 200 weekly and have a solid high volume bounce that pushes above ath ill be bullish on the market but, until then I will continue to remain bearish on this current situation. I am also watching the 20 weekly ema and 50 weekly ema for a bearish cross over. This week we pressed up against the 50 weekly but got rejected. If we continue to go downwards I believe price will squeeze between the 50 ema and 200 weekly ema just like we did in 2008 until we break out. The Fibonacci retracement zones also seem to be a good indicator for predicting price action as well on the dow jones. The rsi and macd are also matching perfectly to the 2008 cycle. I put cross lines on the points at which I think we are in the cycle comparative to 2008. The pink upwards trendline weve been over for the past 12 years also plays a huge roll in this cycle. If we break this line and close below the 200 weekly ema in the next few months I will be completely bearish on equities, that is until price crosses back above the 200 weekly EMA. Another thing I wanted to note is DONT wait for death crosses on the weekly because it is a lagging indicator and it will be to late for exiting out of the markets at that point. the downside target I projected is just for fun but it can possibly be a believable one if you compare it to history. The only this about the down side target that makes me not so confident in it is the visible range (VPVR) on the target area is a low horizontal volume area. Lmk in the comments if you guys have any questions or if you have anything you can add to this analysis! Much appreciated and good luck guys!
TVC:DJIShort
by satstacker808
2
Start of the end of the 11-year bull run... 02.25.2020In way's I hope this is the start of the end of the 11-year bull run that we have seen... But time will tell all... The Redline is the VWAP-Anch it did start at the bottom back in 2008, The white line is the VWAP-Anch that did start at the beginning of 2020 and the dark green line is VWAP-Anch down to the hour of the top of the market... Also if you don't have it on your own chart look at the MACD look how fast it is falling... I'm kind of looking to see the price at least get down to the $180 zone before the next bull run... Of course over the next year or so... Tokyo is not doing well at this time... At 22:45PM Toronto time on 02.25.2020
AMEX:SPY
by ADHDing_
Nasdaq Index Eerily follows 2007 Trend LineRecently, I have grown extremely suspicious of the Market as it seems overvalued with P/E ratios way above healthy levels. I will listed the major areas within the fundamental areas of our economy that furthers my negative market sentiment. 1.) The ISM non-manufacturing PMI - This index has declined at a very similar rate as 2008 and sits currently at levels almost identical to December 2008 ~ 52.6 2.) Consumer Confidence currently sits at high levels and is starting a down trend 3.) Unemployment is sitting stagnant at historical lows ~ 3.7% - 4.) Tech IPO's prices are declining rapidly after opening, most recently, Peloton as well as Bankruptcy concerns for WeWorks after its failed IPO. This is mostly due to overvaluation and a signal of capital slowdown for investment 5.) The 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury has recently inverted in August. This is a recession predictor with recessions following with a spike in the spread after it has inverted. 6.) We are liquidity problems in the Repo Market, this is due to the Federal Reserve reducing its balance sheet. This points to the issue that the Federal Reserve is trapped and may be forced to lower interest rates back to zero to restart QE. 7.) Auto Inventories are declining rapidly. In the past, people have been concerned about large inventories, but as long as there was enough sales in the future to sell the inventory, the excessive inventory is not a problem. The problem arises when inventory decreases rapidly, meaning that automobile manufactures are expecting slower sales and will look to production cuts. Which means... a decrease in the labor force and jobs. 8.) The Market is no longer driven by fundamentals, instead it is driven by speculation to the end of the trade war, and if the trade war ends stocks will "hopefully" reach new highs so we have justification of this historic bull run. 9.) Stock buybacks have decreased dramatically in the second quarter of 2019 which means there is less buyers of equities. Although, we do see buybacks picking up rapidly in the third quarter. 10.) Gold and silver have been extremely volatile and moved dramatically to the upside. This suggests that people have concerns about the economy and they are hedging with precious metals. There are many other things that I can list, but I think these points are suitable. Now, lets talk about the chart. Two weeks ago I was curious to see whether or not trend lines during certain time periods acted in coordination with current stock levels. After drawing this, I noticed that the Nasdaq follows this trend line and makes major moves (in particular) after crossing compared to the other indexes. I set the beginning trend line on a weekly basis and have been changing it to a daily basis frequently to see if anything sticks out noticeably. Today, the weekly line closed almost perfectly above with the line barely touching the bottom of the candle. On a daily basis, it opened just underneath the trend, then closed slightly above. What can we conclude? 1.)The Nasdaq and other major indexes are failing to hit new highs 2.) bearish patterns are emerging 3.) There is not a clear end to the trade war 4.) Economic Fundamentals are weaking 5.) Global concerns are not going away I will let other people interpret this for themselves. For me, I am no longer holding any long term equities outside of safe havens until I see a major change in economic fundamentals nationally and globally. Cheers, AC
NASDAQ:IXIC
by RayleWoodInvestments
2