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2009

Bearish engulfing SPY /weeklyIn the chart, you can see all the bearish engulfing signals on the $SPX from 2018. They have all resulted in corrections over the next 3 trading weeks, or a much stronger pullback during 1 week. For a deeper dive on a daily chart view analysis, go to the related ideas below (Market Internals in Trouble) . Positive Note: If we can rally and close on a weekly basis above the high of the bearish engulfing candle; that could would negate the down-trend signal.
SP:SPX
by dorfmanmaster
6
Dynex - where to next?Thanks for viewing, Wow, some interesting keywords in their business description; - LEVERAGED buyer of CMBS products (as you know, leverage works both ways. To juice gains or to ensure out-sized losses), - ADJUSTABLE-RATE mortgages (I suppose not so bad - unless interest rates increase which to be fair seems unlikely right now), - office buildings, retail, hospitality, and healthcare (all sectors hit super hard by the current health crisis. Healthcare because everyone is cancelling elective procedures - where all the money is made). Default rates of CMBS products above 10% in June 2020 www.cpexecutive.com but have reduced somewhat in the 2 months following. I'm sure that is good news - unless the reduction was due to "forbearance" - when banks just allow a break in payments of overdue accounts (no chance of a debt default if you don't call in your debts). Around half of the increase from ~2 to over 10% delinquency was from mortgages over 90 days overdue and at least part of the decline was due to banks deciding not to require payments (for some undetermined amount of time). Its like 2009 again - just replace CDO with CMBS and residential with commercial property. Asset backed securities are great - unless the value of the underlying asset declines significantly - which it has. I don't know where it will go, up down or sideways All I know is it is in a down-trend and the return in no way reflects the massive risk. It seems tailor made to get flattened by the current environment.. AVOID AVOID AVOID. Or buy, its up to you. Maybe the Fed will bail it out.
NYSE:DXShort
by flyinkiwi10
Start of the end of the 11-year bull run... 02.25.2020In way's I hope this is the start of the end of the 11-year bull run that we have seen... But time will tell all... The Redline is the VWAP-Anch it did start at the bottom back in 2008, The white line is the VWAP-Anch that did start at the beginning of 2020 and the dark green line is VWAP-Anch down to the hour of the top of the market... Also if you don't have it on your own chart look at the MACD look how fast it is falling... I'm kind of looking to see the price at least get down to the $180 zone before the next bull run... Of course over the next year or so... Tokyo is not doing well at this time... At 22:45PM Toronto time on 02.25.2020
AMEX:SPY
by ADHDing_
Oil Short - Is 2018 the year of 38-48 Oil? Thank you Mr. Musk..If you view my last published chart you can get a fairly clear view of the sideways consolidation that I'm expecting to continue in the coming weeks, in a 45.6-50.4 range, the main trading meat being 46.81-49.18. This range is based on major Supply and Demand (2009 Rally) levels during what I consider Fair Value oil prior to the US initiating QE following the 2008 financial crisis. Oil prices have swung 'around' this range for the past 2 years and I've been (im)patiently waiting for extended consolidation in this range around it's long term critical midpoint of 48 in hopes to see a repeat performance of the July 2015 swing around 48 and then 10 dollar drop down to 38.X; and it appears that this may be culminating. Tim Cook has stated that the electronic transportation is not the future, it is here. Elon Musk is working towards production of 10,000 Model 3's per week by the end of 2018, his more affordable version of the Model S. Lets face it, OPEC has not come through and the battle for market share will likely continue in the years to come and we've seen that the 50 dollar level is again contending for a supply/selling level for at least the mid term and I can't help but wonder whether 2018 will be the year of 38-48 dollar oil? This is a risky entry as we saw an unexpected monster rally on Friday, although still within my sideways range and just breaching the supply/selling zone on the October contract. This chart is a bit unorthodox for me using channel lines and mainly looking at previous cluster/range levels and channel lines vs, my typical supply/demand inflections which I am a firm believer in. You can zoom out or scroll left to get a better view of the overall ranges and structures that I am looking for prices to repeat. SL is difficult on this, I have a nice buffer built following my stagger chart, see "Oil - Possible Sideways Range' and so am willing to keep a bit deeper stop than what typically risk management would call for as I am continually using smaller staggers into and out of my larger position move, which has proven very beneficial in increasing overall ticks in the position trade. I will describe in subsequent updates why the 47.04 -38.01 levels are pertinent to 2009. Please let me know if you have any questions or comments. The Trade: Short Entry: Active: 48.8-49.6 TP1 or Average Down Level: 41.00 TP2: 38.00-39.00 Good trading all!
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by smitheric1970
8