BTC in a stage 3 declineOver the past year BTC broke out of a stage 4 decline it formed a "cup and handle" broke out above the 200D MA but failed to hold momentum but instead rolled over into a range.
It's now trading under the POC "27900 level" the path of least resistance would be to target the 200D MA as a demand zone, this should play out by the end of this month if we print a bearish candle on the monthly.
A trade invalidation would be a reclaim of the 27900 level.
200d
Understanding Current Market Trends 🔄CURRENT MARKET TRENDS 🔄
1. 🎯 Selective Market Dynamics
The present market scenario remains highly selective. This has been a pattern, with a tendency for a rotational environment. Stocks that are currently underperforming or rebounding from their lowest points are leading the market for short durations. This is while tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq temporarily stagnate, then it's their turn to lead, and the cycle continues. But, there's a growing concern - fewer companies are driving the Nasdaq, which is complicating attempts to gain significant progress with individual stocks due to diminishing participation.
2. 🐺 The 'Lone Wolf' Phenomenon
The case of NVDA serves as an excellent example of this emerging "lone wolf" trend. Recently, NVDA shares experienced a substantial increase of nearly 30% following an impressive earnings report and promising quarterly guidance. This surge contributed to a 1.7% uplift in the Nasdaq index. Meanwhile, other indices like the Dow and Russell 2000 ended negatively for the day.
🤔 DECODING MARKET CONCERNS
1. 📉 Hidden Weaknesses in Indices
While favorable earnings responses are generally positive, the risk lies in a market driven by a limited number of stocks. This poses a challenge because the strength of indices can be misleading, concealing the limited overall participation if the driving force comes from a handful of giant corporations.
2. 🛡️ Defensive Tendencies & Megacaps
There are phases when financial institutions become cautious about risk and the overall economy, leading them to adopt a defensive stance. Megacap companies have offered liquidity during these times, thus becoming the "safe" choices when institutions hesitate to take on riskier investments. This has led to an updated version of the old Wall Street adage, "You'll never go out of business losing your client's money in IBM." In this context, IBM is replaced by modern tech giants like Apple (AAPL), NVDA, Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL), Meta (META), and Netflix (NFLX) - the new IBM's are the FAANG companies!
🚀 NAVIGATING MARKET DYNAMICS
1.💡The Eventual Shift
While this trend will eventually change, predicting when this will happen is not a necessity. Indicators such as a rise in successful breakouts will provide all the necessary information. Until then, discipline and avoidance of fear of missing out (FOMO) and hasty strategies is advised.
2.🌊 Riding the FAANG Wave?
You might be contemplating whether to join the FAANG trend. If these stocks show positive signs or proper bases, the answer is yes! For instance, NVDA and NFLX were recently included in our Watch List for this very reason.
S&P 500 200-DayAt a critical juncture while hanging on a pivot for both 200D and zero gamma.
The 200D regression trend turned up positive as the tail is now at the peak of aug bull rally.
Total S&P 500 gamma is neutral around zero gamma / 4k.
No vol events and no flows from options means lower daily distributions.
Bulls
- Slow grind up here into CPI.
- Low CPI/PPI Only on Mar14/15.
- VANNA/CHARM flows to pick back up
- Target is ~405 JHEQX Call Pin
Bears
- Bears have not had a lot of help from any negative gamma
- A turn below 200D would give the acceleration lower needed to go negative
- Target is JHEQX Put at ~363