Raising Bullish target on the EURUSD to the 78.6% RetraceLast week I put out this TLT trade setup that showcased a Falling Wedge with Bullish Divergence at the 0.382 retrace which targeted an upside move in the TLT that would recover at least 50% of the high:
In the time since this setup first formed the TLT has nearly reached that minimum target. In addition to the TLT, I expected the EURUSD to follow a similar path, however, the EURO has remained mostly flat and has not moved up with the TLT which is kind of unusual.
It is possible that the EURUSD pair is waiting for the FOMC but in the meantime the Bullish patterns on the EURUSD have gone from just being an intraday pattern to now being a daily pattern, with the Daily candle now printing a Bullish Hammer above the 200-day SMA while also slightly diverging on the RSI. Due to this improvement on the higher timeframe, I have decided to raise the Bullish price target to the 0.786 retrace, aligning with $1.107 as it catches up with the falling US Bond Yields.
200daymovingaverage
Filecoin: Spring and Backtest of Spring with Bullish EngulfingFilecoin is attempting to confirm a backtest of spring in the form of a Break-Hook and Go while Bullishly Engulfing and holding Above the 200 Day Simple Moving Average. If this holds up i think it will be able to rise to The Fibonacci Extensions of the 1.618 and if lucky, the 2.618
Wait and see at this levelHello Friends!
I entered a trade at $38K and exited at $48K. Now I’m waiting for a confirmed breakout above $48,300 (200 day moving average). It must breakout and hold above that level (prefer above $49K to $50K) for a few days for me to trade the next potential levels up. Maybe wait until the weekly candle closes and watch the volume to support the price action.
Here are the next levels up if it breaks above the 200 day:
-$57K
-$65K
-$70K
Break below the 200 day might push it down a few levels to the bottom of the channel.
-$42K
-$37K
As always thanks for your follows, likes, and comments. Let’s learn and grow together. Cheers!
*This information and publication is not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice. Do your own research.
$AAPL - Apple is starting to weaken in this correction!Apple gapped below the 200 day moving average today, and we even saw some baerish follow up during the day. Apple below the 200 day moving average is very significant, happens rarely and if it happens, usually we see a bigger correction then.
We are in a pretty solid channel atm, with decent reactions at the supply and demand side. Should we break that channel though, first watch for the grey box to find support in there, as it is the golden zone (.382 - .618) from Covid low to ATH Fibonacci.
IF that box should be broken as well, we are poised for that huge gap close at around 100$, Apple has ALOT of gaps in it's chart, but i think that gap is so big, and marks the break of 100$ and got never backtestet, since we broke out back then, wouldn't be weird at all, if the market should decide to backtest that. .786 retrace, which would be considered deep value would correlate to pre covid ATH.
Watch this chart guys, this is probably the indicator, of what we can expect from the broad market, we need Apple above 200 day EMA, or things might get really dicey.
Stay safe !!
Tesla has some work to doHello Friends!
Tesla had a great earnings call. Unfortunately, Tesla’s value is very high and it’s having a hard time through these market selloffs.
At this point Tesla needs to hold $814 (200 day) and then it needs to break above its $903 resistance.
As always thanks for your follows, likes, and comments. Let’s learn and grow together. Cheers!
$ALGO longBased on the long-term daily log chart of Algorand, it looks like RSI has reached a low where it normally bounces relative to previous large declines greater than 60% when the 200D moving average was breached.
This RSI level has signaled a bounce back 4 times before since the inception of Algorand. The probability that this will be the 5th time is very high. History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes.
This has been the 4th worst decline besides the initial puking of ALGO which I don't count. The 5th worst, or the least bad, was a 64% decline. Right now we're at about 69% of a decline. The worst was an 81% decline.
I don't think we have any more room to the downside since 100% of the time (4/4) the RSI has hit that magic low level, the trend changes from bearish to bullish after a breach of the 200-day moving average.
Falling 3 Methods Below The 200 Day Moving AverageIf it doesn't quickly reverse here i'd expect it to see the 0.786-0.886 low to high retracement. Stoploss above the high of the 3rd green candle.
$BNTX BioNTech SE LONG Trade Setup$BNTX BioNTech got wrecked since its August high and lost over 50% of its value.
BNTX is at it's 200 day moving average, if that holds as support, it is a very nice swingtrade setup.
With Covid numbers rising all across the world and booster vaccines for everybody getting more and more a thing,
BNTX could possibly go on another bullrun cycle.
Approach with caution though, that stock can get wild in both directions.
Hold The Line At $0.25We continue to make lower highs and lower lows and i continue to trade each one. This time i will be keeping my eyes on the 55 and 200 Day MAs and the level of $0.25 for a bearish continuation; It looks like so long as we stay below $0.25 that we will have a clear path to 15 cents or lower.
Bitcoin Summer OutlookPrice at TD 9 Sequential reversal on Daily chart with a bearish sloping 200 Day MA resistance level so expecting a small retracement.
Price above $37K volume level for now, where most of the volume as come from in past two months. Likely to act as new support.
Price held the $25-30K level as anticipated, the short and mid term MAs lie around $34K-35K, the resistance breakout level.
SPX's Percentage Above 200 Day Averages, suggesting a new cycleIf you still have doubts that we are starting a new cycle from march low. Then , check my Elliott wave counts and SPX's Deviation they are also
suggesting with higher probability a new cycle. That's been said, we will get 30 % corrections here and there and even more during this cycle, as we go up and
percentages would be much easier to get and accepted for different reasons.
wish you all the best.
The Nasdaq-100 is the most overextended it's been in a whileI am looking at the distance of the Nasdaq-100 from its 200-day moving average. I am looking as far back as 2015. What we see here is something slightly historic... it's the most extended it's been from its 200-day moving average in a long time.
I examined the chart and the last time the distance from its 200-day MA was above 30 for a long period of time was the 1999 DotCom Bubble. That's not to say there's anything wrong. Because it's true - an overextended market can always become more overextended. Trying to call a top is nearly impossible. It's better to be aware and manage your situation independently with the data before you. So a few notes to keep in mind:
1. For the market to reach it's DotCom bubble extension, or distance from 200-day MA, it would need to rise another 50% or so.
2. Tech still remains very strong and is far different from what it was in 2000. Companies are real, big, and operate around the world. The largest holdings in the QQQ ETF are Amazon, Apple, and more. Large cash piles and products that weave society together.
3. However, as someone who follows markets closely, I am actually not quick to buy or sell anything at these levels. The risk-reward is slightly unbalanced. Now, the March crash does skew the 200-day MA data, but still worth watching this.
Special shout out to @ AlexWe1992 for creating this indicator. It's really cool. Select the moving average, customize the colors of the bars, and then get to work. It's open source and free to use here:
SPX's Deviation from 200D MA since inception's day 1957Hey guys what's up
I am including all the data here so you can copy, share or edit it on Microsoft apps. feel free to reuse of redistribute all
my work to our trading view community or out side it.
March's low is most likely a fresh new cycle to say the least " believe it or not" with out bias you would come to this conclusion
one way or another and you should accept if before time proof that for you. (even if we get big corrections this is how financial markets behave : -) )
Moreover i probably did allot of mistakes here and there, missed allot of important details ... but i did everything with most to my ability : -)
*************************************
SUMMERY: (RED #s)
During each new cycle we usually get the higher & highest
numbers. the more we go into the cycle the more
the deviations get lower. Moreover, we do get
allot of NOT worthy to mention pullbacks even though
we have higher number of deviation !!! .
--------------So, no GOLDEN RULE here at all.---------------
wish you all the best.
**************************************************************
SUMMERY: (BLUE #s)
Deviation below 200d MA is not that common on a daily
chart, and i assume it would be more rare on a weekly
chart. (5 r single digits-4r20s—9 r teens-1is30s-2r40s-
1is50( Most extremes since inception r (54-47-46-32)
------------"40 % 10-19"/"22% below 10"/"8% 20s"---------
BUY BUY BUY BBUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY
-----------WHEN YOU SEE THOSE "3" EXTREEMS.-------------
Deviation below 200d MA.
-8
-25.37
-6.08
-19.91
- 7.41
-32.88
-9.94
-46.18
-15.63
-22.66
-11.51
-11.40
-27.48
-14.60
-12.49
-47.69 2000
-54.77 2007
-16.48
-9 %
-12.21 %
-15.13
-27.81 covid-19
***************************************************************************
SUMMERY: (GREEN #s)
Some of the biggest corrections/crashes/crisis
came from small percentages of deviation from
SPX's price !!! That's a key note to be observed
closely. In Contrary to the general view that the
more we go the more likely we have a stronger crash
---------- DATA says this is WRONG!!!---------------------
Since the inception of Standard & Poor's 500 :
--------------------------------------------------------
11.79 Covid -19 crash
6.4 % 2018 correction
3.45 % 2015 correction
12.21 % 2011
6.95 % 2007 crisis
6.11 % 2000 crisis
14.95 % 1999 correction
17 % 1998 correction
5.68 % 1994 10 % pullback
7.20 % 1990 correction 20 %
17.92 % 1987 crisis
20 1980 correction
13 % 1980 correction
8 % 1976 big Correction
9.97 % 1973 big crash
11.85 % 1968 big correction
5.96 % 1966 big correction
8.47 % 1962 big correction
8.62 1959 big correction
-----------------------------
we have a range of 20%- 3.45 %
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Summery : (Orange)
the largest 15 crashes in the history of SPX since
inception has no relation what so ever. 53 % of
corrections came from double digits % deviation!!!
47% of correction came from single digit deviations
The largest crashes since 1957 (inception):
----------------------------------------------------
11.79 35.27 covid-19 crash
6.45 20.23
12.21 21.59
6.95 57 2007 crash
13.18 50 2000 crash
14.69 22.52
7.2 20.32
17.92 36
20.39 28.08
13.76 21.58
8.02 20
9.97 52.08 big crash 73
11.85 37.12 big crash 1969
5.96 23.69 big crash 1966
8.74 29.26 1962 big crash
------------- So it is 50-50 chance !!!!!----------------
**********************************************************************
All Deviation above 20 + except for few where at
the beginning of new cycle. In another word they
came all after big crashes/corrections. Therefore
getting these high numbers of deviation is
confirming YES confirming that we are beginning
a new cycle.: 18 % of these double digits pullbacks.
82 % of these are a single digit pullback.
After March's low we r getting high #s(new Cycle)!!
All Deviation above 20 +
-----------------------------------
20.63 6.55 Beg.
20.81 5.57 Beg.
21.22 7.18
20.49 4 N.wm Beg. 1982
20.63 3.27 beg. 1982
20.85 6.24 Beg. 1982
23.78 9.03 Beg. 1982
20.39 28.08
21.23 15.54 Beg.
23.90 5.52 Beg.
20.15 4.69 Beg
*******************************************************************
Summery: All deviations between 15-19.99
20 % of these we get a double digit pullback
80 % is a shocking single digits pullback !!!!!
All deviation between 15-19.99
--------------------------------------
16.17 10.37
16.54 7.17
17.11 5.07 N.WM
16 13.07
19.76 6.49
16.53 10.29
15 6.03
15.97 6.43
15.46 3.5 N.WM
16.82 3.47 N.WM
17.92 36
19 9.33
16.23 9.12
18.87 4.86
19.77 5.05
16.78 7.63
18.14 7.79
18.31 15.47 Beg.
19.69 3.60 Beg.
*****************************************************************
Summery: All deviation between 10-14.99
36 % of the time we will get double digit pullbacks
up to 64 % of the time single digits pullbacks.
Therefor this area is favoring small dips !!!!
All deviation between 10-14.99
Deviation pullbacks
13.42 8.9
11.79 covid-19 crash 35.27
13.91 11.84
13.81 7.58
12.24 10.96
12.21 21.59
12.35 17.16
14.70 9.26
11.28 8.55 Beg.
14.14 5.35 Beg.
13.18 2000 crash
14.13 13.13
14.69 22.52
11.76 7.39
13.95 5.96 N.WM
10.79 11.04
12.77 3.95 N.WM Beg.
13.99 2.59 N.WM Beg.
14.57 14.57 N.WM Beg.
14.01 5.59 N.WM Beg.
13.89 9.26
10.80 4.76 N.wm Beg.
10.93 10.14
10.69 8.28
10.14 3.18 N.wm
12.90 4.03 N.wm
13.76 21.58
13.79 15.15
10/13/13 6/6/4.70 N.W
11.85 37.12 big crash 1969
13.87 8.36 Beg.
12.39 5.06 Beg.
11.83 4.41 Beg.
13.86 4.42 Beg.
14.97 3.36 Beg.
10.82 1.86 Beg.
Summery: 36 % of the time we will get double digit pullbacks up to 64 % of the time single digists pullbacks.Therefor this area is favoring small dips !!!!
***********************************************************************
************************************************************************************************************************
Summery: All Deviations between 5-9.99. 28 % of
them double digits pullbacks 72% single digits pullbacks.
Either, my 42 sample is not enough and in this area i am
wrong, or things get missy around these numbers !!!!!!!
All Deviations between 5-9.99
Deviation pullbacks
6.94 6.94
8.89 6.87
6.75 7.64
6.45 20.23
8.92 8.87
6.32 4.76
6.99 5.16
6.78 9.88
9.23 6.12
9.44 8.90
6.95 2007 crash
7.67 12
9.02 6.69
5.75 8.09
6.95 7.32
9.89 10.35
5.68 9.70
7.7 5.36
9.22 6.75
7.2 20.32
8.74 11.30
7.40 7.43 N.wm Beg.
8.46 14.68
9.69 11.73
9.06 4.05
8. 9.97 52.08 big crash 73
8.23/9/10 6.23/6.18/6.55 02 20
8.89 8.50
9.72 4.66
5.96 23.69 big crash 1966
6.32 4.41
6.16 10.94
6.37 4.87
8.90 4.19
8.69 4.47
8.98 2.83 N.wm
8.40 7.59
8.74 29.26 big crash 62
8.69 3.89
8.62 9.32
************************************************************************
Summery: All deviation below 5 % off 200D MA
is just 50 % double digits % 50 % single digits
pullbacks.
All deviation below 5 :
2.66 14.50
3.45 12.28
4.94 6.16
3.7 6.71
4.83 3.96
4.65 6.75
4.62 11.35
4.16 13.63 big crash
***********************************************************************
******************************************
All raw data
Total of most extended deviation
since the inception of S&P 500 in
1957 :
----------------------------------------
Deviation----pullback/corrections
?????????????????????????????????
13.42 8.9
16.17 10.37
11.79 covid-19 crash 35.27
6.94 6.94
8.89 6.87
6.75 7.64
6.45 20.23
8.92 8.87
13.91 11.84
6.32 4.76
2.66 14.50
3.45 12.28
6.99 5.16
6.78 9.88
9.23 6.12
13.81 7.58
9.44 8.90
12.24 10.96
12.21 21.59
12.35 17.16
14.70 9.26
20.63 6.55
20.81 5.57
6.95 2007 crash
7.67 12
9.02 6.69
5.75 8.09
4.94 6.16
6.95 7.32
11.28 8.55 Beg.
14.14 5.35 Beg.
6 2000 crash
13.18 2000 crash
9.89 10.35
14.13 13.13
16.54 7.17
14.69 22.52
17.11 5.07 N.WM
11.76 7.39
16 13.07
19.76 6.49
16.53 10.29
13.95 5.96 N.WM
10.79 11.04
15 6.03
12.77 3.95 N.WM Beg.
13.99 2.59 N.WM Beg.
14.57 14.57 N.WM Beg.
5.68 9.70
7.7 5.36
3.7 6.71
4.83 3.96
9.22 6.75
4.65 6.75
14.01 5.59 N.WM Beg.
15.97 6.43 N.WM Beg.
7.2 20.32
8.74 11.30
13.89 9.26
15.46 3.5 N.WM
16.82 3.47 N.WM
10.80 4.76 N.wm Beg.
7.40 7.43 N.wm Beg.
17.92 36
19 9.33
10.93 10.14
16.23 9.12
18.87 4.86
19.77 5.05
21.22 7.18
12.48 5.58
10.69 8.28
11.21 canceled this one too close
10.14 3.18 N.wm
12.90 4.03 N.wm
8.46 14.68
16.78 7.63
20.49 4 N.wm Beg.
20.63 3.27 beg.
20.85 6.24 Beg.
23.78 9.03 Beg.
16.05 canceled with in a crash
20.39 28.08
18.14 7.79
13.76 21.58
9.69 11.73
9.06 4.05
13.79 15.15
4.9 canceled within a crash
8.02 20
10/13/13 6/6/4.70 N.W
21.23 15.54 Beg.
23.90 5.52 Beg.
9.97 52.08 big crash 73
8.23/9/10 6.23/6.18/6.55 N.W
18.31 15.47 Beg.
19.69 3.60 Beg.
20.15 4.69 Beg.
11.85 37.12 big crash 1969
4.62 11.35
8.89 8.50
9.72 4.66
13.87 8.36 Beg.
5.96 23.69 big crash 1966
6.32 4.41
6.16 10.94
6.37 4.87
8.90 4.19
8.69 4.47
8.98 2.83 N.wm
8.40 7.59
12.39 5.06 Beg.
11.83 4.41 Beg.
8.74 29.26 62 big crash
8.69 3.89
13.86 4.42 Beg.
14.97 3.36 Beg.
10.82 1.86 Beg.
4.16 13.63 big crash
8.62 9.32
15 Beg.
15 Beg.
15 Beg.
PREPARING FOR THE GREATEST GOLD LONG TRADE OF THE DECADE200 Day Moving Average.The ultimate support for gold. And looks like a falling wedge.
Gold could fell below 200 Day Moving Average and targeting the high traded volume zone at 1747 level before a major trend reversal.
Look for divergence indicator for better entry timing.
Disclaimer: * Please do not trade solely based on the opinion of my post, do your own research and analysis before taking any trade. *
200MA used as a level of supportTRQ chart - doesn't always happen like this but was interesting to see this chart and notice how well the 200day MA acts as a level of support in various places
Litecoin/BTC 🥈 is about to get LIT 🔥🔥🔥Litecoin/BTC pair is finally above its 200 Day Exponential Moving Average! 👍 It seems like everyone who missed accumulating Bitcoin at $9,000 is now FOMOing into Litecoin, which is to Silver 🥈... as Bitcoin is to Gold. 🥇
Litecoin below $100 psychologically feels like Bitcoin below $10,000...
On Balance Volume confirms Resistance line break, former historical support that dates back to 2017.
Also, MACD confirms bullish uptrend!
ETHEREUM/BTC 😃 Opportunity 👍💡 Ethereum is the "safer" altcoin to diversify into if you want to compound your Bitcoin (without needing to trade on leverage)!
Multiple Higher Lows on the daily timeframe shows Demand is eager to buy Supply at higher prices from previous bottoms.
Price is testing its 200 Daily Moving Average, which is sloping up!
RSI is oversold.
MACD histogram is starting to converge...
🚨 Stop Loss below previous daily candlestick wick 0.0209-ish
Risk to Reward 1:5
TVIX (Volatility) Says MOVE COMING!!!- Quadruple Momentum Divergence
- 0.618 Fib pullback
- Flagging/wedge structure
- 200 Day MA on Daily
- Possible Higher low?
Let me know your thoughts below... Follow for more soon!
Facebook's 200 day MA may serve as a bounce point around $192.Taking a look at Facebook (FB), we can see it is currently getting sold off quiet viciously. However, there may an opportunity for a trade if price pulls back towards the 200 day MA in red which has served as an important support point twice in recent months. This 200 day MA in red may serve as a base as it has in the past. Just something to keep your eye on.
200 day MA in red is currently around $192.
MA Guide (All Daily for this post):
21 EMA in Purple.
200 MA in Red.
-This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress.