200MA dailly the key level to watch.hello,
Just analizing the three posibilities:
A. Bull market saved with fast recovery way above 200Ma dailly.
B. 38.6 fibo retracement/200ma dailly rejected and back to 30-40k level to retest the Support, before continuing the bull trend
C. 200Ma dailly rejected hard, going back to test 30K, loosing it and continuing into mini bear trend
200ma
BTC oversold again since $5kI've noticed a pattern that has been very successful to me in past 5 years in crypto. I noticed that the last time we were oversold on the daily chart was when bitcoin was at around $4-$5k and also kissing the 200 MA. Now we are getting back to those bullish zones again where Bitcoin is kissing the 200 MA and RSI is oversold, mind you $btc still above $40k.
I am not a financial advisor neither a professional TA guy. Everything I know I learnt it thru experience, losing money and YouTube =)
Bullflag 6 hour FET/BTC #FET #FetchAI $FETHere we see our FET 6 hour chart . And it's in a clear uptrend . We've stayed above 1000 sats since hitting that 700 area few weeks ago .I said at the time I thought that pullback to 700 area was the completion of our Handle from that Bullish Cup and Handle pattern,and I still think so ( target of that was 2890 which I still think will happen but first we must retake the 1550 area and break above it . ) You see that purple arrow on the chart ? That points at what appears to be a Bull Flag on the 6 hour timeframe . In between those pink lines. It's a bullish pattern that happens after an uptrend and says we should be seeing more uptrend soon .Also notice we are about to have a Golden Cross on our 50 MA (light blue line ) and our 200 MA ( drk blue line .) That light blue line going up and through the dark blue line is a Golden Cross and it is also Bullish . So to sum up we have 2 bullish patterns happening on this chart and I definitely expect upside though I can't say when , but it seems it will happen soon. I'll link my previous FET charts below but we should see a break towards the 1550 area again sometime soon .
XRP/USDT - falling wedge breakout imminentXRP/USDT is close to the tip of a falling wedge and looks like it's about to break out.
Strong bullish divergence on the last drop and the current price action looks very bullish, price already moved over the downtrend and we should see another leg-up within the next few candles.
Double bottom on the 4hr 200 MA as well.
It's currently showing a very similar pattern as the one it formed before the pump from 50c upwards.
Same as always - buy close to the tip of the wedge or buy the re-test after breakout which in this case is now.
Good luck and let me know what you think!
$SPY fly too highAnother idea why the $SPY has had an incredible run. A simple and effective analysis - K.I.S.S!
200 SMA
DIFF = -
The spy has historically respected the daily 200 MA. In four different sequences, we see 3 times where there is 1 return to the daily 200 MA over an extended period of time:
1. 463 Days : DIFF - 37.98%
3. 272 Days : DIFF - 23.92%
4. *+303 Days : DIFF - 39.06% *(current timeline before return to 200 MA)
The fourth idea - sequence number two - returns to the 200 MA 8 times over 399 days. Where the DIFF is 12.94%. This current period (303 Days) trending without return to the daily 200 SMA is average compared two the other two period's analysis. However, the current return is more than a % of the next records return, which lasted the longest - 463 days.
Currently we are above the 200 SMA by $54.21 | 14.96%
TL;DR - Over extended in such a short period of time from the 200 SMA
Fibonacci
Orange Diagram
Since the lowest point of the COVID crash - $218.26 - We have extended to a key level in this phase - the 1.68 retracement level. This key extension period displays the possible run from a pullback. Though we have hit this level with key momentum, volume and activity is decreasing (Note weakening RSI). I say, a final push bull-trap rally while past a record $400 significant whole level.
Gap To Fill
Another reason to be short in the short-term. Here is a great post for a short-term bearish signal: The gap to be filled at the $400 level.
TL;DR #2:
1. Haven't hit a 200 SMA after an incredible run. Usually the SPY the respects the 200 a couple times over this same period. If not, they are noted above and in the diagram.
2. We have hit a key extension in the Fib, Thoughts are a Final bull trap rally in the 400+ space. Exhausting volume and weakened RSI.
3. If you do not want to be long, there is a good analysis on the gap that should fill - Link for this analysis above.
Best of luck and all love traders
Dominating The Market Btc.d #Bitcoin $BTC #BitdHere we see our Bitcoin Dominance chart which today dipped into 51 area ! This is major ! Our expected Altseason won't happen with a high Bitcoin Dominance chart so it's great to see this dipping even lower right now! You can see we are under the daily Ichimoku cloud . We are under both the 50 MA and the 200 MA . And we have hit a TD Sequential 9 in red on this daily chart as well as the 3 day chart . This chart is just red ! And whilst the Dominance of Bitcoin in the market goes down - the rise of Altcoins in the market should continue up , even giving us a bit of Altseason! So this is very Bullish for our Alts . Last Bullrun of late 2017 saw Bitcoin Dominance actually fall to 36 area at end of December 2017/early January 2018 !! That's quite a bit lower even than we are now though there's no guarantee how low it goes . No one can say yet but so far it seems like our altrun will be looking good all year .
NIO Beautiful Double bottom, 200MA support, possible move up ?Published 4/3/2021.
Current price ~ 39.55USD.
Chart- Daily.
NIO had found support on the 50MA earlier with a double bottom and had bounced off for great gains before the current retracement.
Double bottom and support on the 200MA now is a good entry point.
With the RSI bouncing off the current key level to watch is 40$ with a good volume spike!!
DXY Closed Above 200 Daily MAThe US. Dollar Currency Index (DXY) is trading above its 200 day moving average for the first time since March of last year. Last time it pushed above this resistance, it rallied an additional 5.4%. If a similar trend is repeated, it could spell bad news for equities and crypto.
Other things to note are the average directional index (ADX) > 25.00, which means the uptrend is strong; and the bullish MACD. The RSI is near overbought territory (not depicted in chart).
Parabolic Moves ! FET/BTC #FET #FetchAI $FET Here we see our FET 3 day chart and as you see we broke out last night ! Coming very close , as expected, to our high from last Summer near 1550 .With Mainnet coming in 3 days we seem to be entering into a Parabolic upward movement here .You see where the green arrow is on the chart ? That shows an obvious Kumo Twist on our Ichimoku Cloud - ( also known as a Kumo Breakout ) and it's very Bullish ! . We are also about to have a Golden Cross happen with our light blue 50 MA going to cross up and through our dark blue 200 MA . Next target above us is 3200 - 3420 area ,which is near strong resistance and our .236 fib. I'll link the fib targets in my other chart below . This looks great , extremely bullish chart . Now there can always be some pullback along the way as well as consolidation - I'm not saying we go to 3200 and above tomorrow - but it is definitely looking good for April and beyond !
It's time to ZOOM OUT and get REALPlease have a look at this chart. Scroll all the way back to 1999.
At present day we are very far above the 50d moving average. It's frightening how high we are.
Bearish divergence from Jan 2020 to present day.
Bearish divergence in 2018, leading to a 20% retracement.
Bearish divergence in 2007, leading to the global financial crisis.
Bearish divergence in 1999, leading to the tech/telecom bust.
History will repeat itself, I think. We are currently in a very worrying position. Look at what these bearish divergences have shown in the past. To return to 50d MA levels would mean a 13% correction for S&P 500. If we fall below that, we should start considering a full blown crash/bear market.
Bearish Trend The loonie is inside a bearish strong trend, we can clearly see it in bigger timeframes such as weekly and daily, now let s analyze the h4 chart:
the price is capped by the 200 sma and is in the Supply zone (the orange rectangle), this zone is really strong because we see that it worked perfectly several times, in addition the stochastic has created the so-called Hidden divergence that shoudl push down the price, I will keep a bearish view until the bearish trendline and the moving average will not be broken and I expect the pair to go don to make new lows.
Fundamentally we can notice that in last months oil prices went up and they are highly correlated with the value of the Canadian dollar wich is one of the main exporters, in addition yesterday Deputy governor Toni Gravelle highlighted that the reduction of monthly asset purchases is coming, and traders are now speculating that it could as early as April 2021. Gravelle stipulated that the process would be slow with gradual reductions in purchases in provincial debt, corporate debt and the main government bond programs. This tapering is likely to appreciate the value of the CAD, besides the Federal reserve will keep on suppporting the economy and the dollar will be under pressure again due to the fact that in the second part of the year the Inflation will not grow as high as expected previusly.
Hoist The Jolly Roger BTC/USDT #Bitcoin $BTC #BTC Here we see our Bitcoin 2 hour chart . Can you see that red X on the chart ? Well, X marks the spot where we may see a Death Cross happening
very soon . A Death Cross is when our light blue 50 MA crosses down and through our dark blue 200 MA . This should bring downward price movement. It's a very bearish event - though keep in mind this is the 2 hour chart . While it's hard to know how low this can go it wouldn't be impossible for Bitcoin to actually go sub 50k here . Please understand we are still long-term bullish for the rest of the year even if we see more pullback on Bitcoin. This will also be great for altcoins which could see a little altseason starting soon.
QCOM High Conviction Trend ReversalQCOM at 200 SMA support and will likely revert back up or trade flat.
Trade Ideas
Shares : Long around the 200 SMA ($125) for $140 and $152.5+ Profit Targets.
Short Put : 110 strike expiring 4/16 for $1.3 Credit. Short 14.5 deltas with a 82.5% POP. $1000 BPE for a decent 13% ROC. Close at 50%-75% profit, 150%-200% Loss or 20 DTE, whichever comes first.
Put Credit Spread : 115-120 strikes for $1.33 Credit. 63% POP risking $367.
Call Debit Spread : ATM or maybe 1 OTM.
LINK 4HR, Breakdown As ExpectedAs I noted in my last post, if the 55 MA and the 618 Fibonacci level did not hold we would continue to make a downward move. That is exactly what has happened. we also have a perfect tap on the downward RSI trendline. Volume on this latest candle was extremely bearish. Now to see if the 200 MA will hold