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200ma

Maybe this is what SAVEs (clever, right? ;) our portfolio's!Just a quick little post, been a while. SAVE is looking quite nice right now actually. Above all the VWAP's (won't let me draw them from the ATH, but I can assume it's above that point) and fib extensions look quite nice. Here's a quick moving average update. Not the best trendline, I know, but even with the 3 turning points, it definitely helps give you an idea about the stock. It has had quite some nice accumulation phases, and now perceives to trend higher (especially after earnings that came out wednesday). As far as Airlines go, I hate flying Spirit airlines, but I will choose them every damn time if they're at the top of the google flights screener because they're the cheapest one. Budget Airlines are they way to go now-a-days, have been for a while, and this one has been beat down for so long even with the quality financial health of their balance sheet relative to other budget airlines. In terms of the overall market, definitely don't recommend going long for a little bit until things clear up; but if you are, might as well choose a stock you think will actually benefit your portfolio, and this one doesn't seem to be a terrible addition!
SLong
by croganm
NZD/USD expanded flatI posted my daily wave analysis yesterday. Looks like it may sell down some more. If you sell it, then, if you can hedge, let some run when it's in profit in case it keeps going and then look for a buy setup. That way, if you got in the buy and it didn't go... You only loose partial profit on the sell. That's how I prefer to trade personally. But if you look at the daily bollinger bands and candles, it looks like it is making a flag. Refer to my daily chart. Looking for a daily candlestick to wick below mid band (20ma). But my focus is a longterm buy. May come from around the .6500 level.
by thillygoosth
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 230)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. I recently posted Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart . It provided new dates and prices for the bottom, however it’s still slightly too early to abandon my predictions from the previous Bitcoin Bubble Comparison ]Bitcoin Bubble Comparison: 1 day - 5 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 | Calling for $35 ETH around the same time Previous analysis / position: “If we breakdown $6,370 then it would confirm the bearish harami as well as the hanging man. If that were to happen I will be prepared with a small stop order set to short $6,369.” / Short USDT:USD’ from 0.968 Patterns: Descending triangle / bearish harami Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,410 | R: $6,454 BTCUSDSHORTS: Really started to look like they will break out of the triangle to the upside. Once volatility picks up so will volume and we should see unprecedented levels of short sellers. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% Short term trend (4 day MA): Bullish (price above MA) Medium term trend (4 week MA | 2 & 32 day MA’s): Bearish | Bearish Long term trend ( 32 Week | 50 & 128 day): Bearish | Bearish Overall trend: If daily closes below $6,438 then all will be bearish Volume: Surprised volatility didn’t continue after the volume spike on the 15th. Now we are back to painfully low levels. FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351 Candlestick analysis: Harami inside a harami. Can we get a 3rd matryoshka doll? Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud acting as strong support at $6,424 TD’ Sequential: Weekly red 2 will fall below a red 1 at $6,086. Placing a stop order there could be a good idea Visible Range: Gap in volume from $6,246 to $6,371 with 5 day look back Price action: 24h: -0.1% | 2w: +/- 0 | 1m: +2.95% Bollinger Bands: Daily MA acting as strong resistance Trendline: Top of descending triangle ~/= $6,725 Daily Trend: Chop Fractals: Up: $6,792 | Down: $6,057 RSI: Hanging around 50 on most TF’s. 4h is a little overbought Stoch: Recrossing bearish on 12h, going for retest on daily after creating higher high Summary: I am closely watching the red trendline on the USDT:USD’ 1 hour chart as well as prior historical support at 0.9642. As long as it stay below those areas then I do not feel very comfortable about holding a short on BTC’ or ETH’. Furthermore I am strongly expecting the lower wick from October 15th’s candle to get re explored, similar to what followed October 2nd’s candle. If it has another selloff then BTC’ and other cryptos should get another pump. If it stablizes then I will feel comfortable going back to my normal approach of 99% TA Nevertheless, trading is about risk reward and properly managing positions. If the r:r is tilted too much in my favor then I will open a large position regardless of what is happening with Tether and I will use a market stop loss if need be. I posted a chart earlier with a $35 target for ETH:USD and that is a prime example of something that is too favorable to pass up. In the mean time there is an incoming death cross on the 3D chart with the 50 and 200 MA’s. The first close below the 200 MA is what led to my most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison . Only other time this happened was in October of 2014.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
10
Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day ChartOn September 5th I made a similar post comparing the daily chart to the 128 MA. It is much more detailed, however the conclusions didn't change much. The TL:DR of the previous comparison reads as follows: Bottom: $2,860 on October, 31st 2018 Range: $3,750 - $5,800 for 8 - 9 months Breakthrough: $6,100 on June 21, 2019 Because the RSI is not oversold and we are in a tighter coil than last time I expect a faster selloff and therefore a faster rebound. That may or may not mean that the price will go lower, that will depend on support, it does mean that I expect the target to be hit faster than the 1:1 comparison that I did on the chart posted above. There is no way to tell how much faster so I am going to stick with my prediction from the previous bubble comparison, for at least another week. Only continue from here if you are interested in my subjective view of the fundamentals about the USDT' situation. I almost always stick with technicals, because I believe that they reign supreme ~99% of the time. I believe that if there is news that will affect the market then it will be seen in the charts before it will be heard in the news ~99% of the time. I think Tether' is a very good example of that, there was a major selloff without the news that I would expect to back it up. There is always FUD' surrounding USDT' about banking relationships, Bitfinex, unbacked Tethers' etc. However, USDT:USD' has never broke 0.8897 in it's ~18 month history on Kraken and it fell to 0.85 on Saturday night. We have also never seen such a drastic premium on USDT' exchanges when compared to USD exchanges as far as I am aware. To me this represents big money making big moves, which would suggest that insiders know something we don't. There is a very good chance that I am wrong about that, and I will certainly not be making trades based on loose suspicions. However, I am trying my best to understand the situation and that is what makes most sense to me. Once I feel like I understand the underlying fundamentals of the market then I can get back to doing TA. I do believe that Tether is single handedly driving the crypto market right now. The premium remains on the USDT' exchanges and the USDT:USD pair remains in dangerous territory. If it cannot close above historical support of $0.98 in the next couple days then it will be ripe for another selloff. If that does continue to fall then I expect BTC' to moon on USDT' exchanges. This last pump came on Tether losing 14% of it's market cap and 12% of it's USD value (at it's low). At it's peak, that added 16% to the value of BTC:USD' + BTC:USDT' / 2 Therefore it is clear that a flight to safety from USDT' to BTC' would also cause people to FOMO in with USD. If Tether' were to legitimately go to $0 then there is no telling how high that would pump the price of BTC:USD' or BTC:USDT'. However, once people ran out of USDT' then there would be very few buyers at the inflated prices and a sharp reversal would be expected. If insiders had information then they already made there moves and now there could be a situation where I put technicals to the side. All TA that I have done would suggest that > $8,500 BTC' would = the next bull market. Before this weekend I would have been very confident in becoming bullish on Bitcoin at a price above $8,500. Now I would hesitate very much to make that same claim unless USDT:USD was ~1:1 on Kraken or unless the price stayed there for a month or two. I am currently shorting USDT:USD at $0.97. I view this as a very safe trade while waiting to buy back into BTC'. It everything stabilizes then I should be able to breakeven by buying back at support. If not then I have orders set at $0.85 / $0.75 / $0.5 and $0.01 to cover 25% of my position. While waiting for BTC' to figure itself out I think this is a great way to put my sidelined fiat to work.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) bottom? DowJones key take aways (2008)Hello all, I'm trying to analyse several bottom formations of different asset classes in order to find key take-aways that could be useful for the BTCUSD bottom formation. On my profile page you can find the BTCUSD analysis based on the same principles. The Dow Jones bottom formation after 2008 financial crisis: - Top 200 MA: 13 300 - Bottom 200MA: 8 300 - Draw a fibonacci retracement from top to bottom: Findings: - V-bottom formation (different then BTC '14, Nikkei '08 -'09) - Before V formation price was trading with a very high volatility in the 85 - 100 - 115 retrace channel from 200MA top - After parabolic selloffs (3); 130% retrace from 200MA top served as support. - Price levels below 130% got bought up linear (V-shape) - Price found support at 100% retrace from 200 MA where it confirmed the bottom - 200 MA in uptrend ever since Link BTC 2014 Crash: - parabolic selloffs - 85 - 100 - 115 % retrace from 200MA top plays still important role during bottom formation shortcommings: - Prediction of 200MA trendline - Empirical analysis I'm looking forward to your feedback. Best, Bavo
DJ:DJI
by Bavo_DB
1
GBP/USDI'm not messing with this just yet. But I would just like to point out that considering the dollar index is in that channel which can break and can make another shoulder up (possibly small), you may get some trade opportunities on Gbp/Usd. The price action it is making makes me think it may make a running flat, or even possibly a correction for a WXY type pattern. Simplified: The blue is 800MA. The red is 200MA. This is the 4hr chart. You may get a bounce or flat/zig zag between them, or at least an opportunity to get a stop in profit on a sell, or await a pattern for a running flat to buy. It's at the 1.236 extension, but I prefer to catch GU off a big spike out when it is chopping like that so be careful. The 1.618 level lines up with the 800MA, so if it were to shoot up to that level it should at least react I would think. It may make a little sell from right at this fib area but I ain't messing with it. This is more you guys that will be awake during London and you can see where it is at.
by thillygoosth
2
NZDUSD - 2nd Wave Retracement In CompletionDo you have the answer to that equation on the chart? That's usually how I find as many technical reasons as possible to identify a trade that I will not regret making. The dollar is near the bottom of its major range at 94.4, commodity currencies have proven to be weak as well. So shorting NZDUSD is quite a safe choice and given the fact, the price has retraced very significantly. Always go for the trade you have no reason not to make.
Short
by AlgoVenture
1
Breaking upward from current bull flag can take us to 6.9kCurrent resistance form the 4hr charts 200ma (in blue is causing us to form a bull flag...the pole of the bull flag should send us to a target just under 6.8k and allow us to finally surpass the 200ma and hopefully flip it from resistance to solidified support. I have a feeling FOMO will send us slightly above the 6.8 zone to 6.9k and possibly even to test the psychological 7k line if we are to have a successful bull break. I'm feeling optimistic about the likelihood of a break upwards so I'm listing this idea as long. Of course I will as always be prepared and ready for the exact opposite outcome as well.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
11
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 194)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Analysis led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis / position: “If you are not in a position and you didn’t sell the 4h bear flag then it is time to wait. If we get a bounce then you get a high percentage short. If we don’t get a bounce then you need to be okay with missing out on a move.” / Short ETH:USD. Took profit on 33% of position improving my average cost basis to $317.37 per ETH. Patterns: Descending triangle. 4h tweezer bottom. Horizontal support and resistance: S = $6,350 | R = $6,375 - $6,440 BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back from ATH’ retest. Interested to see if it makes higher low. ETHUSDSHORTS are off the chart and could be an indication of what’s to come with BTC’. Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0545% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -4.87% | 26 = -5.77% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -8.63% | 128 = -11.03% Volume: Decreasing during consolidation. FIB’s: 0.786 = $6,379 | 0.618 = $6,783 Candlestick analysis: 4h shooting star. Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan-Sen = $6,770 TD’ Sequential: Daily R5 Visible Range: Currently testing point of control (POC) with 2m - 1y lookback. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +3.19% | 24h = =0.91% | 1w = -12.74% | 2w = -7.83% | 1m = +1.51% Bollinger Bands: Found support from bottom band. MA = $6,777 Trendline: If current bounce creates lower high (strongly expected) then should be able to draw a trend line with the top of September 5th. Daily Trend: Bullish Fractals: Down = $5,869 | Up = $7,442 On Balance Volume: Moving with price / no div’s ADX: ADX > 25 which confirms trend. Chaikin Money Flow: Moving with price / no div’s RSI (30 setting): W = 48.72 | D = 44.93 Stoch: Daily oversold and posturing for buy signal Summary: We got the bounce I was expecting and now we wait to see what kind of legs it has. I have adjusted my key areas of resistance to $6,459 and $6,783 do to the following resistance cluster: Tenkan-Sen = $6,770 0.618 FIB = $6,783 4h 200 MA = $6,615 VRVP POC with 2m - 1y lookback = $6,300 - $6,459 Daily Bollinger Band MA = $6,777 I am still expecting the price to retest the 200 MA on the 4h chart and it currently waits right in between my key levels of resistance. If you are not in a position then opening a short with one third of your desired position size at each level of resistance should provide a favorable risk:reward. Enter 33% at $6,449 Enter 33% at $6,599 Enter 33% at $6,777 A stop loss above $7,150 should be relatively safe based on prior support and resistance levels. Any of the following targets are realistic within the next 1-2 months: $5,500 | $4,500 | $4,000 | $3,000. I would still suggest shorting ETH’/Alts instead of Bitcoin. They continue to be in a weaker position which decreases the risk and has greater opportunity for reward.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
1
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 193)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My latest Bitcoin Bubble Analysis led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis / position: “Still waiting on a bounce off support before continuing the draw down” / Short ETH:USD. Took profit on 33% of position improving my average cost basis to $317.37 per ETH. Patterns: Descending triangle / 4h bear flag Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,126 - $6,166 | R: $6,200? | $6,380 BTCUSDSHORTS: Continuing to pull back after a slightly lower high. Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0349% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -8.04% | 26 = -8.69% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 =11.36% | 128 = -13.73% Volume: Current selloff is significantly above MA on 4h chart. FIB’s: 1 = $6,039 | 0.886 = $6,300 Candlestick analysis: Prior 3 day candle engulfed the 3 before it. 4h hammer Ichimoku Cloud: C clamp on the 4h TD’ Sequential: 1h is currently on a 9. Daily is on a 4 Visible Range: 2 month lookback has point of control (POC) at $6,400. 3m-1y all have POC between $6,300 - $6,400. Expect that to become strong resistance. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -3.98% | 24h = -3.94% | 1w = -13.76% | 2w = -7.63 | 1m = -7.78% Bollinger Bands: Just about touched the bottom of the daily band on this last selloff. Bouncing from bottom 4h band. Trendline: N/A Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: Just broke through another down. Next one = $5,855 | Up = $7,437 On Balance Volume: Moving down with price, no div’s ADX: ADX continues to move up while -DI and +DI continue to diverge, as would be expected. Chaikin Money Flow: Moving down with price, it’s a little worrisome how far daily and weekly have to fall before becoming overold. RSI (30 setting): W = 48.29 | D = 42.89 | Similar to CMF’ it’s a little worrisome how far daily and weekly have to fall before becoming overold. Stoch: Weekly getting ready to make bearish crossover. Daily is reaching oversold territory. Summary: When the markets start moving I like to pay close attention to the shorter term MA’s to give me an idea of when to expect consolidation and/or a correction to the upside. In one of my Telegram groups someone pointed out the 20 and 200 MA’s on the 4 hour chart and said to watch for the death cross. I noticed that the price tends to retest the 200 MA before selling off again and think that will be a great area to place some orders to sell The 4h bear flag breaking down on volume tells me that we may not make it back to that area. I always watch for the breakdown of the flag itself as well as horizontal support from the pole, both of with occured. Still having one third of my short position open on ETH makes me feel comfortable either way. If you are not in a position and you didn’t sell the 4h bear flag then it is time to wait. If we get a bounce then you get a high percentage short. If we don’t get a bounce then you need to be okay with missing out on a move. Today is Saturday, go outside and enjoy the beautiful summer weather! Even if you are in a position, set your stop loss and forget about it!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
Eur/Gbp See that weekly price action?....I can never say for certain the exact moment a monster trade turns, all I know, is I pointed out the sell from the very tip (hopefully here depending where you are reading this) and I am convicted to take my chances and just let it run. This is because we did have a completed 5 wave, seem to still be in correction, and considering that a price action channel like that is the kind that when price breaks it can make a big move. I encourage you to throw on that TDI indicator, a 200MA and 800MA and look at the TDI on the Monthly chart (divergence and now turned down). Then scroll down through the time frames all the way to the 1hr looking at those MA's.
Short
by thillygoosth
CAD/CHF I'm shortI posted this before. I believe the correction to be completed and looking to take it down. You see the 1.618 level. the 1.236 extension, which is usually what this 7 swing hits, lines up with the 78% fib, so I would let some run to there, and then look for a long opportunity, which will be much more pips.... Those MA's are the 200 and 800 that it is below, as long as it stays below them, I will hold. I will even allow it to hit trend line before giving up on it, but I think it's ready.
Short
by thillygoosth
USD/CAD weekly 200 MAUcad is going down in a channel in corrective diagonal fashion, and the pattern allows one more up. The 4 hr and Daily do show more possible room down, But this is a major area. Pitchfork median, trend line it broke, daily 200ma is right under it very close. I would prefer for it to break the bottom trend line of channel, but they don't always. This trade has the potential of going back up to break the last high even. I'll be looking to my fork line for the larger channel. Keep in mind, we have no larger time frame reversal pattern, so it can always create structure and consolidate downward, but I feel pretty good about a buy coming.
Long
by thillygoosth
MTCH: Match Group Inc.Never fully recovered from the Facebook competition announcement back in early May, which caused a huge selloff. Earnings on 8/7 AMC, might consider covering before then. XLK will continue to consolidate in my opinion. We should have downward market momentum with us in the short run. TA: Moving Averages: Rejected by the 50 day moving average continuously since early July. Finally tested and was shot down to fall out of the trendline and dip below the 200 day moving average. Trendlines: MTCH recently fell out of its wedge looking like it has much more downside after an astronomical climb. Momentum: Momentum showing that the stock is cooling down with the momentum indicator in a downtrend. MACD: Daily just signaled bearish again, with the weekly showing what will most likely be continued downward momentum. Short 50 shares @ 36.00 Targets: First: 34.60 Second: 31.00 (what I'm really aiming for) Third: 26.20 Stop 40.00
NASDAQ:MTCHShort
by odeaolay