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200ma

LTC: FIbonacci levels are in playDear all, its been a few days since my last post on LTC (Litecoin is at an inflection point! Mar. 30) and I want to update based on current price action. Frankly I am not convinced that the recent run up is the start of a trend reversal just yet. For context please note that you are looking at candlesticks, each representing one day in a chart whose scope is just over 2 months. From the chart we can see 4 (highlighted by yellow ellipticals) instances where Fibonacci levels served as support; but were subsequently broken to the downside, and one (the latest) which has served as resistance. I am concerned we will break below 106 and am not sure if this will happen. In my post a few days ago I said I was entering with a view to selling at the levels LTC is at now and thus I think it is a sell now. As noted in the chart we must see an extension past the .786 currently serving as resistance per the fifth yellow elliptical. Volume on any such move will also be important because per 4 downward sloping magenta lines at the bottom of the chart we have seen decreases in volume leading to decreases in price and I'm concerned this pattern may repeat itself. Even if we extend past the .786 we could still be below the 200 day moving average. Within the current levels as long as we don't dip below 106 an argument can be made for being neutral. If you find this info useful please give this post a thumbs up. Lastly I want to emphasize the importance of studying contrarian views to your own. If you are long any given coin study short opinions and vice-versa, also be flexible and willing to change your mind, be like water.
BITFINEX:LTCUSDShort
by TNasr
3
Market Looking Questionable! Stay Cautious!!Hey guys! Been a while since I've posted an update, figured I'd try to crank one out! Market is looking awfully sketchy right now. Second time this year we decided to touch the 200 day MA, and that is far from a good sign. All signs point bearish right now, however there is a little light at the end of the tunnel. RSI is wayy oversold right now on the daily time frame, hitting a multiple bottom, and everyone knows we're extended to the downside. In order to continue this downtrend, we need to recover slightly, likely on Monday. I made a little drawing as to what I would like to see the market do on Monday, and this would be fantastic for bears as it allows the bears to make money on the downside, and fantastic for the bulls as it allows them to take a cash position at a higher point. Now the market can do whatever, no one knows for sure what the market is going to do ahead of time, the goal is to anticipate all situations, so what I did was take cash from my shorting position at the 200 MA. Fantastically profitable week, and if I am to remain bearish, I need to see confirmation that the price falls below the 200 MA. Because of this, I've taken cash, waiting to hop onto whatever opportunity presents itself, even if that turns out to be bullish. If we can see this recover slightly Monday, maybe Tuesday, then continue downward with high selling volume, things are looking fantastic for the bearish case. If we open below the 200 MA, I'm slightly worried that this breakout to the downside won't have the necessary strength to continue downward after the large move to the downside we've had over the past week or two. Either way, be on the lookout for money making opportunities! As you can see on the 30 Minute chart, all signs point bearish. Insanely high sell volume, declining 5-Day MA. There is no reason for anyone right now to take a long position, even on Monday or Tuesday for a quick scalp. Just try to find an opportunity where the market slightly recovers and a short position can be entered at a better price (Hopefully after a retracement near the Yearly VWAP). All I'm saying is, DO NOT GO LONG! AT ALL! GUILTY UNTIL PROVEN INNOCENT! You worked hard for this money, don't let greed and market deception take it away from you! Wait for confirmation, then make the profitable trade once it's setup. That is all I gotta say. Any questions, leave them in the comments below. Probably could of said a lot more, I just am tired.
AMEX:SPYShort
by croganm
18
Bitcoin - Support Zones/Future DirectionSupport analysis of both, the previous parabolic move as well as the current slow decline, show areas of support aligning along with impending doom. Currently holding 0.382 Fibonacci, the area below is vulnerable up until the Trend line . At this point an expected rise from the Golden cross approaching within hours (200MA crossing below the 50MA, indicating short term trend upwards) on the 1hr chart along with the longer Weekly chart indicating doom with both the 50(MA) as well as the 100(MA) impending Death Cross (50MA crossing below the 200MA, indicating large waterfall drop, or couple days of trending downwards) The necessity that these cross-overs must occur before uptrend can be established is nothing new although the alignment/strength of both the 50(MA) and the 100(MA) cross-over within close proximity, along the 1hr Golden Cross reversing within this time period to another Death cross, could be a triple threat add pressure to trend downwards. Ichimoku cloud squeezing price range under $10,000 and seems it would take rally similar to last to enable support from this indicator, with volume stagnate, only rising in bursts, realistically 2 times lower then needed, this is currently not possible. RSI currently holding 40, small room with the golden cross approaching before being oversold. Would expect large rise in RSI and price to rebound after/during cross leading along trend line . MACD would need to see some price action to cross-over into positive rise, this could be possible if the Golden Cross plays out, could push price higher during this short few day period although the divergence appears to be slowing. Taking a monetary view of the market, USDT trading was very slowly being replaced with real USD, volume non-existent, FUD, the only "support" channel seems to be along the trend line . this would increase pressure on this support in such a weak and reactive market and only a sharp incline in price would allow Investors back in (Investors don't buy dips, they buy on the rise). Underlining the whole situation is trader's don't believe in the underlying technology (if anything only bitcoin -2.58% ), announcements are being held back until dust settles and constant FUD right at critical support levels. Although the technology hasn't changed from last year, the market has. It seems all indicators are at lowish levels in which a market with "legs" would jump on, but carnivorous nature of this risk built market would ensure lows are low and highs are high. Short term trade, wait for the indicators to mature and align with others, a rise should be expected within the Golden Cross up until the Death Cross comes into play (50MA expected 23rd March), Alt coin funds will be indicator of reversal, flowing heavily into tether (USDT) and BTC at this stage. One indicator that I don't have access to is if large enough funds have a Fake-out planned...and can pull it off...and hit stop losses. A correction would still occur, long term hold your ground, the market will survive. BTC -2.62% is seeing some tough times , so I should write this: ***Education Purposes only***
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by CerealTrader
Potential Core Position Hold with inter-day swing tradesRecent increase in volume, 200ma reversal, volatile price action. This may be one to take a core position and let it ride for several months, while also trading any of those volatile moves on the daily chart. I think with the recent consolidation back to the 200ma support, that there are good odds that we could see another move to the upside in the next few days or weeks. At the same time, as long as price respects that 200ma, it may be a good bet to stay long for the long term. Equity allocation: 60% long term, 40% short/mid-term. 100% initial investment, 40% sell off at a strong move to the upside that show signs of consolidation. Allocation may change as a function of price volatility.
WLong
by doinwork34
EUR/JPYI posted this London close scalp a bit ago. I mentioned that EJ is at the 200 ma on monthly. It is possible I achieved immaculate entry on the start of wave 2, which would retrace probably 50-62%.. It is also possible that it is just a scalp. I already scalped it, slid to profit, got taken out, got back in. Keep in mind yen pairs don't always do exactly what Elliot tells them to. EJ is in a strong downtrend with room down on weekly TDI, but up to daily is oversold. Here's the thing.... I can count a 5 wave, and whether I draw my trend lines for an ending diagonal from wave 3 or just wave 5, both qualify. If you have watched my diagonals video you may somewhat understand what I am getting at. Thing is, it has that supply zone underneath it can extend into. It stopped itself 8 pips above the 130.00 level, sometimes they don't like to hit the even numbers so to ignore limit orders. So, no confirmation, just perfect london close twin trade scalp/let 1 ride entry, at least it was for me. But I feel like at this point, if it does make a big red candle into that zone, it will wick back up. By the fib extensions it doesn't have to be a wave 1 and going into a 2, so we may just get a pull up to around the 131.500 level.... Remember no actual confirmation yet. I doubt I will post or update much more this week if any, have more important crap to do. That purple MA is the 200 and seems to be lining up with a wave 2 retrace relative to where price is. Just thought I'd share. Peace out.
Long
by thillygoosth
BTC Bounce? A short analysis with entry pointsBitcoin following the downward trend, I've highlighted entry points that I personally have put orders in, the correspond with resistance zones circled previously. The downward trend broke through the 100-day Moving average in a big way but seems to have bounced near the 200-day MA (purple). We will see whether this is the bottom bounce or whether we will continue to fall further... I'm currently neutral, it could drop lower but I still have more fiat to put in if that's the case. If it bounces and recovers - great!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by KapitanKris
Bitcoin Confirming Falling Wedge and Falling to 200MA?Bitcoin is currently sitting atop the strongest channel of 2017 (Green Lines), a strong previous resistance that has now become support. However, after a failed bullish symmetrical triangle off the ATH, we can now see a bearish triangle being formed at this support (dotted lines). BTC has failed to maintain above the Daily 100MA, and has a history of bouncing off of either the Daily 50, 100, or 200MA. Therefore, I hypothesize that it will find a bounce at the 200MA. There are a lot of interesting things beginning to come together on the daily chart for BTC at this level. Not only is it sitting at the bottom of that strong growth channel (which was a steady channel unbroken until the holiday season FOMO), but it is also at the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level. I also believe that this drop will confirm a falling wedge scenario (red lines), where we can begin to see a bottom/breakout zone around that area. Finally, if it is to remain bullish, it makes sense that Bitcoin would ultimately return to the more natural growth channel it was in before the new money flooded in, pumping the price.
Short
by Tastemaker
NZDJPY Short - Outside test of rising trendlineI spotted this idea on the weekly chart but there is important detail on the Daily. So we have price action having been kept below the weekly 200MA and then sliced through the rising trendline it has turned and come back up to test the outside of the trendline which is also near to another touch of the now falling weekly 200 MA. Looking for a Fibo 38.2 (RR of 3:1) retrace on this run up isn't asking too much to start with as a target and that sits nicely in the previous structure area that has seen so much action looking back. There are caveats to consider such as where the little red line is that resistance has turned support and been touched so when/If were to reach there I would be moving stops to break even as a precaution. Alternately you could take a third off at that level, a third off at 38.2 retrace and then let a third run on if it does, happy days. I've put stops a reasonable distance away to give adequate RR but also take into account a little area of prior S/R should it decide to pop there before falling and I wouldn't be doing a hard stop here, it would have to be a close above this week. If you wanted to be more conservative you could just wait for another touch of the weekly 200ma, if it gets there however i'm happy with what I see here already.
Short
by CromerKing
EURNZD ready to go up?5-0 bullish formation is possibly ready to drive price to 1.71 area. Divergence is in play both on RSI and MACD. 200 Moving Average holds nicely. Buy order valid after the trendline breakout. 1) Never risk more than 2% of your account. 2) Try to be emotionless by applying your strategy to the pip. 3) Invest to yourself and then your capital. Try to educate yourself along with the signals and enhance your risk intelligence and your perception on how Markets work. 4) You do not have to be extremely precise to be highly profitable as long as you take the set-ups with big R/R.
Long
by InvstingWise
XAUUSD Long potentialThe last move up will complete the first bullish impulse with a fake out close to trendline. Continuous divergence on the MACD will potentially drive price to the support area of 200 Moving Average, before the move up. 1) Never risk more than 2% of your account. 2) Try to be emotionless by applying your strategy to the pip. 3) Invest to yourself and then your capital. Try to educate yourself along with the signals and enhance your risk intelligence and your perception on how Markets work. 4) You do not have to be extremely precise to be highly profitable as long as you take the set-ups with big R/R.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by InvstingWise