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200ma

Do not listen blindly to the Top Callers on SPX (SPY)Plenty of experts on Twitter were calling for a top in SPX today as it rallied up to the daily 200ma. On SPY there was a market dump that can be seen on the 5-min chart today (after 2pm). However there are two points of caution for immediately jumping into swing puts: 1 - price has yet to touch the light blue downtrend line, which would be around 4335-4340 2 - RSI is still elevated without divergence (green oval), which often occurs at major turning points The yellow zigzag shows a possible pattern that would also create bearish divergence with RSI. Upon hitting the daily 200, first round of sellers come in and market pulls back to 10 or 20ma. Buyers return and move SPX up the blue line, and that's when the downturn really begins. Note that I am sharing the possibilities that I see, and I am not married to any one idea. This rally could even go higher than that blue line. Traders usually lose when they become too insistent and expectant on one idea. We likely are at or near the end of this rally, yet you can see by all the rangebound chunks of days that you may not want to go all in puts/short. While those calling for a serious downturn may be correct, it does not have to happen tomorrow, or this week even, and holding time matters in option trades. Repeat - TIME matters! Have you been correct on a directional trade but lost money or made little gain because your option expiry was not far enough away? Been there done that. Now when I execute a trade I think about how long it may take for the price move to happen and then choose an appropriate expiry. Please please please do not predict or expect price action to follow any pattern because others are showing a historic similarity! There is way too much of this "history repeating" commentary on Twitter.
SP:SPX
by OptionsRising
1
$IWM 280 by end of 2024?Market starting to show signs of a final melt up ? Just offering this bull case, of course we could certainly see 120 before 280, but 200 weekly MA has offered support in the past followed by strong moves up, less 2008 financial crisis and 2020 covid crash. So I guess real question for the bear case would be - what is the black swan event ? Because for certain Inflation, war , etc. are just headwinds. A true BLACK SWAN EVENT is needed it seems.. what will it be then ? My bias is long ... for now :)
AMEX:IWMLong
by FriscoTrades
BTC/USD - Is it a Rising Wedge or a Falling Wedge?Quick BTC/USD 1 week chart update: BTC is in a massive Rising Wedge Pattern. BTC is also in a massive Falling Wedge Pattern. At the moment of typing this, BTC is still back above its 200MA on this 1 week timeframe. At the moment of typing this, BTC is still way below its 50MA on this 1 week timeframe. At the moment of typing this, BTC is still way below its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 period SMA. Note that the Upper Band is curving downwards and the Lower Band is starting to curve around slightly. At the moment of typing this, BTC is still back above its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) on this 1 week timeframe. BTC is still in its Descending Pitchfork Pattern above the Median Line and back above its Upper Green Resistance/Support line. It will probably be some time before we see BTC back above the Ichimoku Cloud Equilibrium Zone and back in the Bullish Zone on this 1 week timeframe but that doesn't mean profit cannot be made while the Price is still in the Bearish Zone under the Equilibrium Zone, that is why it's always best to check multiple timeframes for any potential breakouts on those. Looking at the Average Directional Index Indicator (ADX DI), we can see that Negative Momentum has continued to drop with the -DI (Red Line) dropping to 31.45. Positive Momentum has dropped slightly with the +DI (Green Line) at 15.01. The Trend Strength has increased with the ADX (Orange Line) at 32.18 note it is still above its 9 Period EMA (White Line) which is at 28.89. Looking at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence Indicator (MACD), we can see that the MACD Line (Blue Line) is still in the Negative Zone under the 0.0 Base Line but it has risen sharply with Red Histograms decreasing in size and it looks like we could soon see the MACD Line (Blue Line) crossing back above the Signal Line (Orange Line) creating a Buy Signal on this 1 week timeframe. Note that the MACD Line (Blue Line) has not been in the Positive Zone above the 0.0 Base Line since the 10th Jan 2022. For the mid to longterm upside, be on the lookout for a successful weekly close above the 28.60% ($24,314) Fib Re-tracement level and any successful re-test as strong support. For the mid to longterm downside, be on the lookout for a weekly close back under the LSMA and 200MA with any successful re-test as strong resistance. So a Rising Wedge or a Falling Wedge? Which will it be?……. only time will tell. I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing. Notes: 200MA = Red Line on chart 50MA = Yellow Line on chart LSMA = Cyan Line on chart
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by entertheroach
6
Fantom FTM - Time for the bullish action! Elliott Wave + 200 MA On the daily chart we have an impulse Elliott Wave that has been completed and because of that, I expect an ABC retracement to the upside! A very strong resistance is at 1.13 - 1.00 USDT, we have a great confluence in this zone as you can see on the chart. Confluence: start of the gap + end of the wave 1 + end of the second wave 1 + 0.618 FIB retracement + 200 daily MA + psychological level 1.00 USDT. Price is printing a local descending channel and if bulls can break through this channel, then we can definitely go higher! Overall structure on the daily chart is bearish and I recommend only a short term counter trade here. I expect tremendous pumps for selected altcoins, you can find them in the related section down below ↓ For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
23
Kin breaking out of key MA and EMA 2022I am using the 4 hourly charts for this work. I know this may be premature because we could still see some more downside in both equity and crypto markets but look at the breakout from both the 210 MA and the 200 EMA. This is looking very bullish for Kin as far as a breakout is concerned. Look at previous attempts that failed but not this time. Clearly Kin is extremely oversold even though it is an incredible platform with great utility in the Social dapp arena with crypto. Keep your eye on this gem once the bull cycle for crypto kicks in.
FTX:KINUSDLong
by altcoinb
$QNT retests the 200 MA After the quad bounce off of the 0.786 resistance line yesterday (Larger Circle), the $QNT market headed towards a retest of the 200 MA (Smaller Circle). It was beautifully executed, both the 200 MA and the ichimoku cloud were touched, retested and successfully held their ground. The $QNT market is on its way up again following the uptrend line I had drawn a few days prior of buying what seemed to be the bottom of this run. Hopefully we can see some very nice profit over the next couple of days! Thanks all for taking the time to view this idea! feel free to leave a comment and let me know if you agree with it or of there is anything I should consider on top of this information. I wish you good luck! <3
Long
by KneeSlappaa
8
BTC and the 200 Moving AverageIn the past the 200MA has provided excellent entries for getting into BTC however will that be the case this time? Only time will really tell. A few observations are - BTC can spend a long time in this region before it takes off, ie 10 weeks in 2019. Quickest has been the V shape recovery for the Cov crash in 2020 with 2weeks. - Coincides with the extreme lows on the RSI on the weekly chart. RSI on the weekly is rarely in the oversold region. - The lowest it has fallen below the 200ma on this Bitstamp chart is 29% - wicked down but did close almost at the line. - Without checking can almost guarantee it also coincides with the worst news/media cycle. This is the END ahhhh. - The volume typically gets a spike, however does anyone use Bitstamp anymore? ie other charts will show different volume, I chose the bitstamp chart as it has a long 200ma. So now I am waiting for the close of the weekly candle (1day and 20hours left). Expecting volatility. Do we get a nice wick to the downside? I drew in a white line of 29% down from the 2020 crash, still a long way to go 14-15k (cant hurt to have a few buy orders at this range just in case.) Do we close, close to the line and stay in this area a while or is the media right and we close below the 200ma and this is the end? the 200 would become resistance or the market makers may use this unprecedented close to trap a few more bears? At the end of the day BTC has closed below many moving averages before and then made its way up again but sure it can take a long time. If you believe that BTC will be here in another 10 years and will continue its path, then buying under here historically can't be the worst decision and would be considered a great buy in years to come. However like everything in life the past isn't always a clear indication of what is to come in the future. The safest option would be to wait for to retest the 200MA once it gets above it and then get in for still a good price. Good Luck everyone and remember to DYOR.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by System791
1
200 Week Moving Average - The Line in the Sand for BitcoinFood For Thought: $Bitcoin 200-Week MA The 200-Week MA is a topic that has been circulating in CT, and I will give you my thoughts on it and what this could mean for $BTC. With the current levels, I have marked in my chart that $7,726 - $7,176 is the level you have to stay above for the monthly time frame. The box is your line in the sand for any future to be seen for Bitcoin. Any monthly close below these prices, Bitcoin will drastically fall to $1190. If we stay above this box, there is the possibility that Bitcoin is not dead, and we will see new all-time highs. Bitcoin has closed firmly below the 200-Week MA for the first time in 6 years after trading above it all this time. The only way for Bitcoin to be saved is if we get multiple weekly closes above the 200-Week MA. If we cannot do so, there is a high possibility that we will be in a bear market for five years or more until we get to my highlighted box. I am fully aware of Bitcoin and the purpose of the technology. The idea of Bitcoin dates back to 1871, through the Austrian School of economics described as a theory. But, you can not discount the fact that Bitcoin can fail. With any investment, there is a possibility it can fail. This scenario is what makes sense to me, and you should not ignore any possibility. Price is never random. "Nothing endures but change."
INDEX:BTCUSD
by CR38TOR
2
BTC Long position, with Elliott Wave and 200 week MAPossibility vs Probability. In Jan I charted out the possibility of revisiting the 20k price range. Looks like that idea was the one the market decided to take. Here is the link to that chart: I use Elliott Wave style TA and have determined this is likely the bottom, or very close to the bottom, of the most recent bear market beginning November 2021. My reasoning: -Counting waves since the beginning of BTC's inception, wave 1 ended at roughly $20k price in late 2017. -Wave 3 started March 2020 (COVID begins) -Using Fib extension tools, I've determined that Wave 3 has likely finished, and in fact exceeded its typical extension of 4.23 (blow off top) - Since wave 3 has finished, we are likely in the C leg of Wave 4. - Elliott Wave rule - Wave 1 and Wave 4 cannot overlap. - Crypto Elliot Wave rule - Experience in the crypto market says they can but only *somewhat* -BTC has now intersected with the 200 week MA. In the past, BTC either finds support, or only briefly dipped below it. Strategy: I've taken a position at the current BTC price of $21k. Since we know Wave 1 and 4 can overlap in crypto, and we know BTC can move below the 200 week MA, I've always set up buy positions at $16k and $13k, just in case. Using a fib trend extension (starting since the beginning of BTC), the likely target for BTC is $85k. Even if BTC were to drop to something crazy, like $10k, the risk/reward is 6:1. Even as I write this, BTC dropped to $19.3k, an even better price. As for what comes after the $85K price target is reached? Sadness. But thats for another chart. You eagle eyed Elliott Wavers can prob already spot what comes after $85k, already on this chart.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Asaysana
2
Btc 200 WK ema Breached Hard!We are below demand. There is blood in the streets. Max pain is here. The retail boys can't take much more. Never fear. Market buy. Everyday, a little at a time. Start accumulating bags in this range. Eventually the price will tick up, and the inverse of the move that just happened will occur, We will see an exponential uptrend! We were expecting a bear market low in Q3, and we just might have it . Remember DCA when accumulating! A clear reversal must be apparent before things will get better. Once we have conviction we can go APE! too the moon!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Runetrader808
BTC road to 100kI love to draw main channel first, to determine the main trend. We all know BTC had a crazy multiyear rally with huge -80-90% corrections. But still it keeps going up and makes new ATHs after correction was over. And we are having another correction on the way to the next significant number - $100000 per 1 BTC. Most of the time, as we can see, price has stayed above the middle line. Similarly to 2015 bottom, price is falling below the middle line. And people expect it to find it's bottom somewhere above the Weekly 200MA. It has happend few times in the past. But what if stock market will have a real bear market first time since 2008-2009. Will BTC decouple from it finally and just move to do it's BTC things? We can call BTC a "tech stock" in some way, and the chances it will follow Nasdaq are quite big in my opinion. So what if BTC will have a multiyear bear market as well? Weekly 200MA will not hold and we will stay below the middle line for some time. I've seen a lot charts and expectations BTC to test 200MA on the weekly chart and then move up only. But there is no guarantee price will hold it, last bull run wasn't really powerful as we expected, 20k ATH was updated at 69k, which is just x3,45. In crypto world it is weak. So maybe multi year rally since 2008 is "tired" and we will go deeper than usual? Next big support can be Monthly 100MA (Weekly 200MA alsmost equal Monthly 50MA). It sits slightly below 12k at the moment. If it seems unrealistically - lets see how far it can be from last ATH. Just -82% which is normal in crypto. At the time we break Weekly 200MA people will be in mega panic mode. And it can be great buying opportunity for the next huge rally to 100k. Of course it's just a theory, but why not? ;)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by FallingWedge
A Silent Walkthrough With Breakouts & Buy Setups I have a total of about 25 tickers that I'm watching. Some have already broken out & there are a few that I'll watch closely heading into June. In this 4:28 video, I go through 12 tickers that have potential upside strength, if the market continues to bounce. These setups are all mostly double bottom plays within a range after a climatic stage 4 sell-off. Some of these can be played by using the 200MA as a guide, which I also pinpoint in the video. I use a strategy which I coined: "Hunt The Traps" I identify areas where Bears have their Stop losses sitting along with where Bulls where trapped to the wrong side of the trade. It's a very simple strategy that I also teach. The 12 tickers I went through were: #NIO #AXP #BR #PNC #V #UNH #COST #KR #LOW #NKE #TGT #AAPL Check em out within your own charts & see do you come up with the same analysis that I have. Catch yall later, Peeeeeeaaaaaccccceee!!!!!!!
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by DayTraderEarl
4
Is the SPY carving out a bottom? A Bollinger and MA study. In this video I discuss the importance of the 3rd standard deviation from the 50 SMA on the SPY, QQQ, and NDX. Details in video. TLDR: The SPY has found itself at extremes: The Stochastic, the ATR, and the 3rd standard deviation (lower Bollinger Band) on the weekly timeframe all show this. Pull up the weekly SPY, add the Bollinger Band - go to settings: change the period to 50 and the stnddv to 3, add ATR, add Stochastic, add the 50 SMA - these will paint a picture of the extremes Study the corrections vs the crashes, 00', 08', 18', 20', 22' - ask yourself: is this a correction or a crash? Consider the extremes and consider the history of corrections/crashes and how they uses these extremes. I have heard this argument A LOT last week: " The NASDAQ and IWM are already at -30%.....if the SPY is to go lower that means the NASDAQ may go to -45% and THIS is not possible." ---> I beg to differ, but recognize the importance of the Bollinger bounce. Look at the dot com bubble and the housing market crash, extremes can be used as a trend line for extended periods. Remember, nothing goes straight down or up, there is always trending days/periods and range days/periods. It is best to be able to quickly identify which type of day/period you are trading in in order to ultimately use your indicators correctly. Although I remain in the bear camp, I am absolutely open to the idea of a huge massive bounce here before the 200 SMA is tested. This bounce may come with a test of the 50 SMA in the 440's - where is goes from there I am not yet ready to speculate on. Since though I am remaining bearish, I do see a higher probability of the 200 SMA being tested before the real rally to the 50 begins. Either way, I do expect a rally in the near term, news and catalysts aside. Please watch the video for a more detailed look, and please chart this out yourself to draw your own conclusions.....as these are ONLY my opinions and NOT financial advise.
AMEX:SPY
by OccamsPhazer
1
NOT THE BEST TIME TO HOLD BTC PT.2 Btc continues to decline and some people seems to forgot what the defenition of bear market is. How to know if this is a bear market? 50MA goes below 200MA and price is below 200MA. Simple rules right? Usually it works for 1D charts. And what about 3D charts? Bigger timeframe = less false signals. And we about to have our 3rd death cross somewhere in the middle of May. Are you ready? As I said earlier it's not the best time to hold btc and other crypto as well. Maybe this time would be different? Maybe, but I would not ignore such thing. Here is what happend after the death cross in 2014 - 55% decline And this is 2018. Quite noticable corrections right? Are we going to get another -50% dicount? Summer is going to be hot 😈
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by FallingWedge
5