USDCAD broken channelOil rally (WTI hit $54) strengthened CAD, breaking the channel, now bouncing of the 200 SMA, a buy zone could give a good RRR for a long, alternatively if rally continues we could see a break lower.
200sma
A Cyclical Review of the SPX Since Inception Shows the Next BullThe years denoted on the chart are the centre of each yellow circle. In each circle is the central violation of the 200 month moving average, amongst a cluster of three. You'll see the 200 month MA serves as support either side of the one circled. This is a bit of a loose use of the term support but what I mean is big recessions like this seem to result in three touches or violations of this MA. I've made a bit of a guess of the one in the 1870s but it seems a fairly clear pattern in the 1930s, 1970s and one may be emerging right now, with the first violation in 2009 according to one way of interpreting it:
Version 1
Going by the pattern, we'll have two more 200 MA intersections then we're good to go in another multi decade bull market. I don't know when, but Barron's has said 2020 will be the start of the recession. Going by the chart, to get back to the 200 month MA we will need to at least go down to 1650 on the index. This is about a 50% retraction.
Version 2
Another way to interpret it is we've had our three touches in 2009, '10 and '11. They are very close together though. In the 1930s recession, the first touch/support was in '21, the last in '42, a 21 year stretch before the next bull market. The one in '75 was much shorter, first support '74, second '78. A four year stretch. So perhaps governments have gotten more skilled at managing recessions and it's realistic to expect this one to be done and dusted in three years.
AUDJPY opportunitiesBank Rate decision coming in a few hours for AUD, expected no change. Daily 200 SMA is at 81.148. A trend line break and SMA is good for a long. Alternatively, this could turn to double top and go lower.
Maybe this is what SAVEs (clever, right? ;) our portfolio's!Just a quick little post, been a while. SAVE is looking quite nice right now actually. Above all the VWAP's (won't let me draw them from the ATH, but I can assume it's above that point) and fib extensions look quite nice.
Here's a quick moving average update. Not the best trendline, I know, but even with the 3 turning points, it definitely helps give you an idea about the stock. It has had quite some nice accumulation phases, and now perceives to trend higher (especially after earnings that came out wednesday).
As far as Airlines go, I hate flying Spirit airlines, but I will choose them every damn time if they're at the top of the google flights screener because they're the cheapest one. Budget Airlines are they way to go now-a-days, have been for a while, and this one has been beat down for so long even with the quality financial health of their balance sheet relative to other budget airlines.
In terms of the overall market, definitely don't recommend going long for a little bit until things clear up; but if you are, might as well choose a stock you think will actually benefit your portfolio, and this one doesn't seem to be a terrible addition!
DXY opportunityOnce again dollar index is testing the 200 SMA, if retail sales disappoint, we could see a decisive break lower.
USDCAD opportunitiesUSDCAD approaching 1.30 level again and 200 SMA. Could be traded as a bounce or a break lower. Today US retail sales release in the afternoon, could give a boost if data really off the forecast. Oil seems to be rebounding today.
GBPJPY shortSterling selling on Brexit stalemate. Gap out of the range it was stuck in. Short through the 200 SMA.
EURCAD longA long through the 200 SMA with stop below the swing and 100 SMA. EUR looking strong today.
Pitchfork Still Holding, Looking for Support Today at 50 DayI'm liking how this chart is looking for COINBASE:BTCUSD . Before we get into it, the 50 Day, the most important for today, is yellow, the 200 purple, and the 21 blue.
Yesterday (8/1) we were watching to see if BTC would hold above the green zone of the pitchfork and confirm this potential new trend, and thus far that is exactly what we are doing. The wicks of the candles have dipped below the green, but the bodies are staying nicely above. In addition, the downward momentum that could have been set into motion on 7/31 seems to be slowing down, faltering at the 50 Day. You can see that this indicator was also where we found some resistance 7/18 - 7/22, and as it goes, previous resistance often becomes new support. These points are certainly boosting my confidence, but let's consider our situation if we don't see a green day here shortly.
If we see a dip below the green zone, we are then looking to the 21 Day for support. As COINBASE:BTCUSD is attempting to get a proper rally going, it is quite important that we hold above this level and maintain our momentum. A drop below this indicator would be a rather bearish omen and could have the potential to disrupt the market's newfound confidence, but even if that is where we find ourselves, we still have a couple points to look to before the ship sinks (hopefully without your bags still on it).
The blue zone may provide a nice line of defense against the bears, but our pitchfork here is still in its infancy, and repeated failures to find stability around the green could prove to break it. That being said, the third time is often the charm in markets, as may be the case for this very rally. A much more solid line of support after the 21 Day would be the 200 Day, which we managed to pull above with the big jump on 7/17. If our previous two lines are broken, this is where we must stand if we want the bulls to keep running.
With all that in mind, I am still rather bullish on COINBASE:BTCUSD , both in the short-term and over the coming months. Always remember, corrections are healthy and necessary to keep feeding the bulls. Without the red days, where we cool off a little and rest, we wouldn't have the energy to keep on rallying.
Thanks for reading, stay smart out there everyone
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Dillon Seals
ES 200 SMA LONG (2018) Part 5The entry of 2614.00 is based on the previous day close of the 200 SMA
Stop loss is 2 ATR from the entry.
Profit target #1 is 2 ATR from the entry, giving you a reward to risk ratio of 1:1.
Trading Plan:
1. Set Stop loss(2531.50)
2. Sell half at Profit target #1(2696.50)
3. Once Profit target #1 hit, shift stop loss to 1 ATR above your entry. (2655.25)
4. Sell the remaining half at the resistance.
closing of the red candle on 21 March 2018 (2716.25)
*Final Note:
Hello everyone!!
If you notice the 5 instances, the stop loss do not have to be 2 ATR.
With just 1 ATR, you will not get stopped out in any of the 5 trades.
Therefore it easily increases your Reward to Risk ratio by 2 fold.
I hope you managed to learn a pointer or two out of it.
Always trade with a plan and have your stop loss in place once you are in the trade.
Goodbye, take care and God Bless.
ES 200 SMA LONG (2018) Part 4We always wait patient for the trade to come to us rather than chasing the trade.
Previously on Part 3, we missed the trade by a thin margin of 2.25 points.
The market bounced back up and retrace back down.
Luckily it presented an opportunity for us to enter the trade.
The Profit target #2 is identical to Part 3 Profit target #2 as price action did not reach to that area previously. (2718.00)
The entry of 2588.50 is based on the previous day close of the 200 SMA
Stop loss is 2 ATR from the entry.
Profit target #1 is 2 ATR from the entry, giving you a reward to risk ratio of 1:1.
Trading Plan:
1. Set Stop loss (2482.00)
2. Sell half at Profit target #1(2695.00)
3. Once Profit target #1 hit, shift stop loss to 1 ATR above your entry. (2641.75)
4. Sell the remaining half at the resistance.
closing of the red candle on 21 March 2018 (2718.00)
ES 200 SMA LONG (2018) Part 3*Missed the trade by 2.25 points ( 9 ticks)
The entry of 2583.75 is based on the previous day close of the 200 SMA
Stop loss is 2 ATR from the entry.
Profit target #1 is 2 ATR from the entry, giving you a reward to risk ratio of 1:1.
Trading Plan:
1. Set Stop loss (2491.25)
2. Sell half at Profit target #1 (2676.25)
3. Once Profit target #1 hit, shift stop loss to 1 ATR above your entry.(2630.00)
4. Sell the remaining half at the resistance. (2718.00)
(Closing of the red candle on 21 March 2018)
ADAUSD 1h CARDANO STRATEGYStep #1: Cardano ADA price needs to trade BELOW the 200-day moving average
The first condition that Cardano requires to satisfy is to trade BELOW the 200-day moving average.
When price trades BELOW the 200-day moving average we know we have a strong premise for a bearish trend to be put in place.
The more time Cardano price spends below the 200-day moving average and the biggest the distance between the Ada price and the 200-day moving average the stronger the trend is.
Step #2: Volume needs to be above average and twice as much volume compared with previous volume bars needs to come in
We need to look for instances when the volume bars are above the average volume (the red moving average). But this is not all; we also need the buying volume to be twice as much as previous volume bars.
Wait for trading situations where the selling volume is increasing considerably. This really shows institutional buying that has the power to move the Ada coin price.
Step #3: After volume has increased, sell at the opening of the next candle
When to sell Cardano ADA is quite intuitive if you have followed this cryptocurrency step-by-step guide.
The moment we see institutional selling presence we want to be sure we’re not left out. In this regard, after the volume has increased, we sell at the opening of the next candle preceding the big volume candle.
Usually, you’ll be selling right after the first bearish candle that often is the starting point of a new trend. Don’t be afraid to sell on the way down as this will pay handsomely in the long run.
Step #4: Place protective Stop Loss above the 200-day moving average
Hide your protective stop loss above the 200-day moving average.
A market that has a strong bearish trend should not drop above the most powerful moving average aka the 200-day moving average. By hiding your stop loss above the 200 moving average, we’re minimizing risk as much as possible.
Note* as the trend progresses you can also trail your stop loss below the 200-day MA.
Step #5: You decide or Take Profit when we break and close above the 200-day Moving Average
The 200-day moving average can serve us as a significant trigger for our exit strategy.
When we break above the 200 moving average, that’s the first sign that the trend is about to change the tide. When these happen make sure you take profits.
Note** the above was an example of a SELL trade using the Cardano trading strategy. Use the same rules for a BUY trade – but in reverse.
PM me if you want to read the complete strategy
The USDCAD Breaking Out Above 1.3000Last post: March sixth. See chart .
Review: Price had broken through the daily 200sma but was faced with resistance at 1.3000.
Update: Price did a pop and drop above 1.3000, pulled back to the daily 200sma and since April, price has been bullish and has now broken March resistance.
Conclusion: Applying patience and waiting for the right opportunity to enter long trades with is also dependent on the DX!1 .
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
Will The Dollar Index Break Resistance? Last post: May 30th. See chart .
Review: Price was very much bullish but faced with the weekly 200sma acting as resistance which caused a pullback.
Update: Price is still faced with the weekly 200sma as resistance but a bullish move on Thursday could give momentum to the bulls.
Conclusion: Standing aside until the resistance zone is cleared and acts as support before looking to place long trades on USD currencies.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
The EURUSD in Resistance ZoneLast post: June 4th. See chart .
Review: Price was faced with a strong support zone on the weekly time frame which led to the pullback seen on the daily time frame.
Update: Price has continued to pullback deeper into a resistance zone.
Conclusion: Continuing to stand aside until a clearer trend direction presents itself.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
Dollar Index at 200sma ResistanceThis currency index is featuring for the first time on our TradingView blogs.
Current setup: Price has been in a bullish trend since finding support at a key resistance zone that includes the high of 2008 but is now faced with weekly 200sma resistance.
Conclusion: A break and close above the weekly 200sma is required to suggest a bullish trend continuation.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give use the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
The EURUSD at Key Support ZoneLast post: May 24th. See chart .
Review: Price had established a bear trend below the daily 200sma.
Update: Price has continued to weaken but is now faced with a support zone that includes the weekly 200sma.
Conclusion: Standing aside until price clears the support zone for us to then consider short trades.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
The EURUSD Continues to WeakenLast post: May 24th. See chart .
Review: Price had established a bear trend below the daily 200sma and the round number 1.2000.
Update: Price has since weakened further but is approaching key support levels including the weekly 200sma.
Conclusion: Standing aside for now until support levels are confirmed as resistance levels and when we will look to place short trades.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
Bearish Bias on The GBPUSDLast post: April 22nd. See chart.
Review: Price had failed to break and close above January 2015 and the weekly 200sma resistance zone.
Update: Price is now trading below the daily 200sma suggesting an overall bearish market.
Conclusion: We will be looking for shorting opportunities if this weakness continues.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
CARDANO CRYTO STRATEGY - 5 ENTRIESStep #1: Cardano ADA price needs to trade above the 200-day moving average
The first condition that Cardano requires to satisfy is to trade above the 200-day moving average.
When price trades above the 200-day moving average we know we have a strong premise for a bullish trend to be put in place.
The more time Cardano price spends above the 200-day moving average and the biggest the distance between the Ada price and the 200-day moving average the stronger the trend is.
Step #2: Volume needs to be above average and twice as much volume compared with previous volume bars needs to come in
We need to look for instances when the volume bars are above the average volume (the red moving average). But this is not all; we also need the buying volume to be twice as much as previous volume bars.
In our Cardano chart we can note five instances where the volume was not just above average, but it was also double as the previous volume bars. In this case, we’re dealing with five possible buying levels.
Wait for trading situations where the buying volume is increasing considerably. This really shows institutional buying that has the power to move the Ada coin price.
Step #3: After volume has increased, buy at the opening of the next candle
When to buy Cardano ADA is quite intuitive if you have followed this cryptocurrency step-by-step guide.
The moment we see institutional buying presence we want to be sure we’re not left out. In this regard, after the volume has increased, we buy at the opening of the next candle preceding the big volume candle.
Usually, you’ll be buying right after the first bullish candle that often is the starting point of a new trend. Don’t be afraid to buy on the way up as this will pay handsomely in the long run.
Step #4: Place protective Stop Loss below the 200-day moving average
Hide your protective stop loss below the 200-day moving average.
A market that has a strong bullish trend should not drop below the most powerful moving average aka the 200-day moving average. By hiding your stop loss below the 200 moving average, we’re minimizing risk as much as possible.
Note* as the trend progresses you can also trail your stop loss below the 200-day MA.
Step #5: Take Profit when we break and close below the 200-day Moving Average
The 200-day moving average can serve us as a significant trigger for our exit strategy.
When we break below the 200 moving average, that’s the first sign that the trend is about to change the tide. When these happen make sure you take profits.
Note** the above was an example of a BUY trade using the Cardano trading strategy. Use the same rules for a SELL trade – but in reverse.
BITCOIN IS NEARING THE 2ND 'DEATH CROSS' ON THE CHARTS!This is what that means.
Bitcoin has fallen below $8,000 this month. The charts are showing something that has investors wondering if it is time to panic.
Bitcoin's chart shows price has experienced the first 'death cross' where the 50 sma crosses below the 100 sma. Now the 50 sma is approaching the 200 sma and it appears that the 50 sma may cross below the 200 sma also creating the second 'death cross'. This is used to illustrate when the 50 sma moves below the 200 sma – technicians often look at this pattern as a bearish sign of what's to come.
And in bitcoin's case, the 50 sma has already taken out the 100 sma, with the shorter-term trend line inching lower.
"When we are talking about bitcoin, I think it's important to remember that we don't have much history to go off of to identify long term trends," Jim Iuorio of TJM Institutional Services wrote to CNBC on Wednesday. "That being said, any time the 50-day crosses the 200-day, it should flash a warning…and when you couple that with the fact that bitcoin has been trending steadily lower since the launch of futures, I think that it is a major negative," he added.
But not everyone believes that a death cross marks more pain ahead for bitcoin. "Fast Money" trader Brian Kelly points out that he sees an uptrend in the chart of bitcoin that has been in play since August, and thinks that the same uptrend could actually be just as indicative of where bitcoin is headed.
"Bitcoin, just like the spot FX markets, follows technicals closely, therefore these support levels gain more importance," he wrote to CNBC. "If these levels hold, then it will confirm the uptrend from August is still valid."
The last time the death cross pattern occurred for bitcoin was in September 2015. After the death cross, bitcoin rallied close to $500 by early November that year from around $230.
Bitcoin has plunged about 38 percent year to date, but would still need to fall another 88 percent to erase all of the 2017 gains.
Quotes taken from Annie Pei article from Futures Now CNBC
