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200wma

BTCUSD: Time for a correctionOutlook for the remainder of the year. The ETF inflows have generally remained positive at new ATH levels, while volume remains low and price remains flat. This suggests considerable distribution from OTC sellers, namely longer-term holders, per HODL waves analysis. It's been 3 months since breaking ATH in March, with price unable to move higher. The consolidation at higher levels remains bullish until $60K is broken to the downside (foodgates moment), which would confirm the current range ($60K-70K) as longer-term distribution, rather than accumulation. First stop will likely be a re-test of the 50 Week MA around $50K after the floodgates for selling opens below $60K. With relatively low accumulation volume, I'm not expecting it to hold as support, but instead return to the 200 Week MA around $40K, likely after a re-test of previous support in order to confirm it as new resistance (around $60K). The 20 Week MA is currently around $63K, so below this level, there will already likely be an increase in selling pressure. The Weekly RSI is otherwise facing rejection from overbought levels >70, similar to late 2021 (minus the strong bearish divergence back then). The culmination of breaking the 20 WMA and confirming RSI rejection by returning to $60K, would be the catalyst for the break of support. As also noted (N.B.) the Mid Pi Cycle Top occurred in march, around $68K-$70K, with price unable to maintain the momentum above this rising MA multiplier, unlike in December 2020 at $21K.(1) The post-halving "Miner Capitulation" has also been signalled by Hash Ribbons indicator, not so dissimilar to summer 2020 that encouraged consolidation and a miner correction.(2) I'm not particularly expecting Path B to play out, unless there is a catalyst for a more full-blown capitulation, leading to a 65% haircut in price. Examples include ETF holders getting cold feet leading to panic as price goes below opening ETF prices , or otherwise some negative regulatory news. A -45% move down to $40K should otherwise be more then sufficient to build up momentum for a 2025 bull market reaching $100K+. Should price reach GETTEX:25K to $30K levels (path B), there could be a "delay" within the usual cycle, with higher parabolic prices nearer to $200K. After the 3x from 2017 to 2021 ATH, 2x seems reasonable in 2025 however ~$138K. (1) www.lookintobitcoin.com (2) capriole.com
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by dragononcrypto
SPX crucial support 3636Weekly closing price is the price available for the world for two days. It is the maximum resting time of a stock or index price, than daily or even monthly. All investors ,traders, institutions, owners are scratching their heads for next action So we have some logics; Every thing is out, inflation, rate Hike, corona lock down, supply chain lock , BUT remember market is already factored in. public is under fear of recession, market collapse ,thanks to Media for over shouting . what they will do? they wait for Monday to sell their stocks what smart BULLS do? they will always act fast before the public realizes they BUY at low level (market oversold to the level of 2015 ) As per EW counts, 'Y' wave will end at 3636 (X*1.618) as long as this level is supported by smart BULLS, we have another new Rally
SP:SPXLong
by selvamB
Btc wave 5 will surprise everyoneHow are you HODL'rs holding up? Are you buying? Getting a divorce lol... She'll be back in a year or two as we already know. Here is my prediction on this run. No one has anticipated such a run as we have had and it has been difficult for many amazing analysts to keep a high % of correct analysis albeit, some are gaining notoriety as they had predicted bearish price action and have even labeled this the bear market. Yet, how do we define a crypto bear market? Well the most noted determining factor is about an 80% pullback in the price of Bitcoin and around 90% for most alts. Yet, here we are with only a 60% pullback on Bitcoin and most alts have already done the 90% retracement or more for the less fortunate coins. So where does that leave us? In my humbled option I believe we have not completed this run and entered a bear market as most are assuming. I do hold weight to the ideals that each run will extend longer as more consumers enter the market and raise the overall market cap, along with the law of diminishing returns this is something we should all take into consideration. That said, If you just look at this run starting from the bottom of the 2018 Bear market and apply a simple Elliott Wave 1-5 you will see that we have completed waves 1-3 and are currently playing out an Extended Flat correction for wave 4. If this plays to be true, based on the correction of wave C in wave 4 the price can fall down to two different fib retracements of waves A&B, those targets being the 1.236 and the 1.618 fibs. Since we have already passed the 1.236 it is likely we retrace to the 1.618 before heading into another impulse wave and completing the 5th wave before we see the typical 80% pullback. It is important to also note that we are currently at the 200 weekly SMA which has previously held as the market bottom in every bitcoin retracement in history. A lot of factors played into the fact that we have had a different run than your typical run we have either all experienced or studied on the charts. You'll hear many reasons, some require a tinfoil hat and others are the more obvious reasons.... Yet, if you ask me, it was due to the few bitcoin futures ETF's that were approved. If you want to further investigate this, go back to 2017 and put the first bitcoin futures product released on the CME on the date and price of BTC, then move further down the line and place each one that has been approved since and I bet you will start seeing the trend. You can use this information in the future by staying up on the products being released on crypto assets. Just a hunch but, if you see something that has had a nice run and is being approved for a futures product, You may want to consider looking for ways to make profits on the way down. I hope you enjoyed the idea and information. If you have, let me know in the comments, ask questions, lets discuss... we are all in this together, lets play like a team should! Have a green week! SAVVY Below I have a link for you to read more in depth about Elliot Wave's and the fibs related to them to better your understanding of the chart I have posted. elliottwave-forecast.com I hope with all of the doom and gloom this will provide some clarity and set your mind at ease... and remember, Sell the hype and buy when the streets are soaked in blood... Now is the opposite of the time to panic sell at a loss.
BNC:BLXLong
by Savvythe1
6
bull trap to 22.3k, 200 WMA, weekly close in 4 hoursYesterday I gained 300$ from shorting BNB, today I lost 535$, I don't know anymore. I short at absolute of absolute bottoms, then long absolute of absolute tops, this comes from having an idea that X rejects at price Y, and from reaching price Y, I invalidate my trade then follow with opposite, while my previous wasn't invalidated We either reject from here and first weekly close below 200 WMA, or we go up and close above it, scam pump, before retesting 20k. RSI says we need correction. I don't know, I don't know, I don't know anymore. Im confused. I am LONG till 22k, then opening a short. Who joins me!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Heartskull
1
BTC final support ~200 weekly moving avg?When you zoom out on the weekly log chart, big picture you see the historical pull back to the 200 weekly moving avg at a min. That's about a -20% pull back from current ~$30k levels, bringing it to ~$24k. Buying Bitcoin at the 200 weekly moving avg price, is the ultimate value investing time to load up historically. We're in new uncharted territory for Bitcoin regarding: macro, Fed policy, and literally even the BTC chart of 9 weekly red candles closes for example. But still big picture BTC will def be at ~breakeven cost unit cost, and highly fair valued at that 200 weekly price.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by joncorreia
Is this the time the 200W MA BREAKS for BTC?This could be the time that people learn that the 200W MA is NOT some magical bottom signal. It is just an average of past prices that HAS TO BE BROKEN at some point. Just like the 200D MA has been broken multiple times the weekly can be broken as well. It just takes longer to play out. # Why this time could be the time it breaks It is the first time that the 200W MA is OUTSIDE of the "green bottom channel" of my proprietary BTC pricing model based on mining difficulty. Because of the substantial gap between the 200W MA and the bottom green corridor, this could be the time the 200W MA breaks by visiting the green area. # Peoples reaction Now that it seems to be the consensus that the 200W MA has to hold (because it did the last 3 times), I can see many people going all-in if prices go there. Consequently, it would devastate a lot of people if this time it doesn't hold. This could cause quite a bit of panic and depending and how long it takes to get there, prices could stay under the 200W MA for an unprecedented long amount of time. # The BTC difficulty model I created the model in 2019. It predicted the Mar 2020 bottom and with its help, I was able to get an idea of where the top of the cycle would be back in May 2020 (check ). Now it is just a model and all models are wrong and it doesn't tell us that prices have to go to the green area again. It is useful to see what is possible in the future based on what was possible in the past. # Takeaways have a plan for what you do if you buy the 200W MA and it doesn't hold Moving Averages of any length and timeframe are AVERAGES and even if prices are skewed they HAVE TO VISIT the other side at some point no one knows what will happen in the future -> don't get married to any idea -> adapt the 200W MA doesn't have to break just keep in mind it is a possibility it can be a slow bleed until we break
BNC:BLX
by aamonkey
8
Capitulation on BTC ~ MacroCapitulation is defined as surrendering or ceasing to resist. In the market, it means when investors give up any previous gains in any security or market by selling their positions during periods of decline. Historically speaking, it is also the very best moment to enter the market. For as long as we have been able to use the 200 weekly weighted and simple moving average, the range within has worked as a range where capitulation has happened. 2015-2016 lasted 42 weeks 2019 lasted 20 weeks 2020 lasted 6 weeks Everyone is expecting the 30K level to hold, if it doesn't, we will see capitulation.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by dorfmanmaster
3
$BTC rally-base-drop reversalMy view on #bitcoin non-religiously considering the simple facts. Short-term we are going to be ranging between 200 DMA and 21 WMA, with strong rejection from 200 DMA sealing the faith of this dead-cat bounce. From S&D perspective #bitcoin is now completing the rally-base-drop reversal pattern perfectly. I will be saving all money I can to buy the 200 WMA. As said in my previous publications, this is where bulls with balls are being made and the ever running $BTC bull run resumes.
Short
by MarianusInconnuX
5
SPX's Deviation from 200W MA since inception's day 1957-weeklyHey guys what's up This is a weekly study VS. daily i did last time. I am including all the data here so you can copy, share or edit it on Microsoft apps. feel free to reuse or redistribute all my work to our trading view community or out side it. March's low is most likely a fresh new cycle to say the least " believe it or not" with out bias you would come to this conclusion one way or another and you should accept if before time proof that for you. (even if we get big corrections this is how financial markets behave : -) ) Moreover i probably did allot of mistakes here and there, missed allot of important details ... but i did everything with the best to my ability : -) wish you all the best. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Summery 11 times : Green count . Above 50 54% of pullbacks single digits 46 % double digits correction very close margin to favor one over the other. All deviations above 50 : ----------------------------- Deviation Pullbacks/correction 54.84 13.08 57.25 7.17 61.99 22.39 59.53 13 61.78 7.35 60.42 34.52 54.78 8.77 55 9.83 crash came for less 57 7 58 10.59 56.33 4.62 ****************************************************** Summery 11 times : Blue count. 40-40.99 46 % single digits pullbacks 54 % double digits corrections All Deviation 40-49.99 : ------------------------------------ 47.29 49.94 2000 crash 46.11 10.05 48.98 10.29 43.78 5.96 41.79 10.03 46.15 9.12 46.07 5.32 47.50 21.46 crash of 1957 43 3.52 43 6.82 43 5.9 ******************************************************** Summery 21 times : Orange count 30-30.99 76 % single digits pullbacks & 24 double digits corrections - pullback. That’s a huge jump from the 40s. All deviation 30-30.99 : ------------------------------------------- 30.38 10.55 32.61 11.84 33.61 5.16 33.27 9.84 34.60 4.35 34.63 6.67 34.73 6.03 30.65 4.82 31.37 4.81 31.37 4.81 32.83 7.52 37.74 10.90 39.74 5.33 33.19 4.11 34.17 5.58 30.23 8.48 37.05 7.53 33.05 14.71 37.21 26.44 33.38 7.79 30.20 6.10 ************************************************************* Summery 47 times : Dark Green count 20.20.99 71 % single digits Pullbacks 29 % double digits corrections All deviation 20-20.99 27 8.9 20.46 8.27 29.12 35.52 covid crash 21 5.46 22.86 6.80 22.58 7.63 27.76 20.21 24.38 3.56 27.73 6.82 25 Nothing happened 20 2.95 20 2.99 21.16 14.37 within a pullback 29.64 15.09 27.54 8.90 25.59 10.94 24.34 57.72 2007 crash 25.16 11.86 23.05 6.84 21.72 8.08 20.55 9.73 22.43 5.36 21.76 4.80 20.97 3.43 21.08 6.67 27.70 6.83 25.41 6.60 25.29 5.59 25.16 20.33 28.12 11.30 23.19 9.24 27.62 4.03 23.50 8.98 25 49.95 crash of 1973 20.25 37.36 crash of 1969 23.90 23.70 crash of 1966 24.20 4.39 24.97 10.94 N.h 24.35 3.33 N.h 24.17 4.78 25 4.19 23.51 4.47 27.54 29.27 crassh of 1962 25.19 3.90 27.83 14.06 25 3.95 24 4.39 *********************************************************** Summery 25 times : Purple count 10-19.99 72 % signal digits Pullbacks 28 % double digits. All deviations 10-10.99 19 1.74 18 1.94 16.5 5 14.64 6.08 15.93 4 17.04 21.58 17.39 6.22 15.65 7.30 14.88 4.45 14 7.27 19.93 21 12.85 11.68 14.147 15.12 10 8.10 14.89 20.45 17 5.45 12.33 15.39 16.11 7.60 11.94 11.36 14.29 8.36 13.64 4.76 13.62 8.43 18.89 7.58 15.31 5.19 19 4.6 ********************************************************************* Deviation below 10 % of spx: Very shocking results Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Long Long Long Long Long Long Long Long The safest area to go long with every thing else is being absolute !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Deviation pullback 9.60 4.60 ********************************************************************** All acceptable pullbacks happened above 10 % of SPX's 200W MA !!! very safe zone to be long is when deviation is 9.99 and under . Most important discovery of this study of this indicator with every thing else being absolute !!! ********************************************************************************** Deviation Below 200W MA: 49-37 Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy and Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold All Deviation below 200W MA ----------------------------------- 16.90 7.04 49.44 37.98 10.64 8.03 5.87 4.12 6.15 38.94 5.55 26.75 10.05 13.92 3.35 ************************************************ Summery of all summaries : ( Keep this handy close by for your swings : -) --------------------------------------------- Deviation Singal.D Double.D 50 + 54 46 40-49.99 46 54 30-30.99 76 24 20-29.99 71 29 10-19.99 72 25 Below 10 4.6 Zero ------------------------------------------------ Hope this would be like a Guide Book for this weekly indicator. Keep the summaries close by for your trading . wish you all the best.
SP:SPX
by samitrading
GBPUSD Support Zone| 200 WMA| Weekly S/R| Price Action Evening Traders, Today’s analysis – GBPUSD- trading above key support with multiple technical confluences, Points to consider, - Price Action Impulsive - Local S/R Support ( 200 WMA & POC Confluence) - Weekly S/R objective - Oscillators Bullish Control GBPUSD’s immediate price action is impulsive above Local S/R, a back test of this level is likely to hold as it is in confluence with the 200 WMA and POC. The Weekly S/R is current objective, clearing this level will increase the probability of trend continuation. Both oscillators are in bullish control zones, remaining in these levels will indicate strength in the market. Overall, in my opinion, GBPUSD is a valid long with defined risk, price action is to be used upon discretion/ management. Hope this analysis helps! Thank you for following my work And remember, . If winning trades give you a buzz, you’re conditioning your mind to drool in anticipation of its next fix. And when it doesn’t happen, it’ll upset your expectations. If thrill naturally arises (which it will), feel it as it is, but then don’t cling to it.
Long
by AzizKhanZamani
NZDUSD Weekly S/R| Double Top| 200 WMA| Price Action Evening Traders, Today’s analysis – NZDUSD- trading at a key weekly trade location where a rejection is probable, Points to consider, - Price Action Impulsive - .382 Fibonacci Support (200 WMA Confluence) - Double Top Resistance - RSI Bullish Control Zone - Declining Volume NZDUSD’s immediate price action is impulsive above Weekly S/R, a correction is probable at a clear Double Top resistance. The .382 Fibonacci is trading in its respective bullish control zone, remaining in these regions is indicative of strength in the market. The volume profile is gradually decreasing; this is a sing of an influx being imminent when testing key trade locations. Overall, in my opinion, NZDUSD is a valid short with defined risk; price action is to be used upon discretion/ management. Hope this analysis helps! Thank you for following my work And remember, “Don’t blindly follow someone, follow market and try to hear what it is telling you.” ― Jaymin Shah’
Short
by AzizKhanZamani
4
200 Week Moving Average Forecast ? BTC/USDT #Bitcoin $BTC A recent article stated that Bitcoin will never drop below its' 200 Week MA near 6700 ever again . I disagree . WE have clearly dropped below it in March . We wicked quite a bit below it . Down to that purple lower trendline .I believe we will wick down there again - it is certainly possible and that would take us to approximately 5xxx or 4xxx or possibly lower but probably not until 2021 as Bitcoin is still bullish for the moment . You can see that important 200 Week MA in blue on my chart with the blue arrow pointing at it , and it's sitting near 6700 now . I have to disagree with people who say this will hold in the future as we can always wick below ( and recover quickly . ) I think we will wick below the 200 Week MA and go down to that lower trendline which you see on my chart in purple with a purple arrow pointing at it . A wick down there could happen in 2021 imo .
by shimmeringpath
200 Week Moving Average Forecast ? BTC/USDT #Bitcoin $BTC What will next year bring for Bitcoin price ? Does the 200 Week Moving Average actually act as a support for Bitcoin ? A recent article that literally came out today says will BTC will never drop below its' 200 Week MA which sits near 6700 as you can see on the chart ( it's the blue line with the blue arrow pointing at it .) So they are saying Bitcoin will never drop below 6700 ever again ? I disagree . As you can see we clearly dropped below the 200 Week MA in March - and actually wicked quite a bit below it . If we follow that March wick down we see our lower trendline in purple with a purple arrow pointing at it . I think Bitcoin will wick down here again , probably next year , and that would take us down to 5xxx or 4xxx ,possibly lower . But definitely that is below 6700 ! I suspect the author of the article is not really a trader . Did they even look at the chart ? Anyway I respectfully disagree with their statement that Btc is not going below 6700 again . I think it is , but will be in 2021 .
by shimmeringpath
GBPNZD Ascending Channel Monthly S/R .50 Fibonacci|200WMA Evening Traders, Today’s analysis – GBPNZD – market structure holding bullish with consecutive higher low and higher high projection, Points to consider, - Ascending channel (HH’s & HL’s) - Support confluence o Market Structure o 200 WMA o .50 Fibonacci o Channel Support - Resistance ( Channel Median) - Oscillators Divergence - Bullish Price Action GBPNZD is trading in an ascending triangle channel establishing structural higher lows and higher high. This allows us to have a bullish bias on the market. There are many technical confluences coming in as support for the price, thus proving to be a true trade location. The market structure is looking for a higher low projection, with channel support, the 200WMA and .50 Fibonacci, a bounce here is probable The immediate resistance is in confluence with range median, price is likely to test that level and consolidate. The RSI has a valid bullish divergence, this in indicative of strength in the market. With bullish price action and market structure, GBPNZD is likely to establish a higher low here. Long trades are valid with defined risk, price action is to be used upon discretion/ management if trade. Hope this analysis helps! Thank you for following my work! And remember, “Don't blindly follow someone, follow market and try to hear what it is telling you.” ― Jaymin
Long
by AzizKhanZamani
NZDUSD Weekly S/R | 200 WMA| .50 Fibonacci| Swing Low Evening Traders, Today’s analysis – NZDUSD- testing key weekly S/R with resistance confluence, a move down is plausible. Points to consider, - Trend oversold bounce - Macro weekly S/R ( resistance) - 200 WMA confluence - Swing low failure (.50 Fibonacci) NZDUSD’s price action recovered from oversold conditions, now likely to respect weekly S/R allowing for a short term bearish bias. The level has technical confluence with the 200WMA that has historically been rejecting price. Price action is likely to put in a swing low failure, making the immediate target, .50 Fibonacci. How price action forms here will be indicative of the overall trend. Overall, in my opinion, NZDUSD is a valid short with defined risk. Price action is to be used upon management/ discretion of trade. What are your thoughts? Thank you for following my work! And remember, “The mind is a fascinating instrument that can make or break you.” ― yvan Byeajee
Short
by AzizKhanZamani
4
SPY coincidence? I think not...I would love to believe that everything is fine, but with such a large move in the southern direction, the trend is down...... We must stay with this perspective until proven otherwise....... Everything is now lining up and I think it would be worth holding a longer term short...... 31.8% retrace 200WMA testing If we go higher, I will probably just sit on my hands and wait for another opportunity with a more clear direction. IMO this is one of the higher probability short opportunities....... GL
AMEX:SPYShort
by bigAL_crypto
1
BHP Key 200 WMA| Oversold RSI| Volume Climax Evening Traders, Today’s analysis will focus on BHP, sellers are in complete control after breaking key technical levels. It has been rejected at a technical point that will dictate the overall trend in the coming weeks and months. Points to consider, - Strong bear break - 200 WMA – Current resistance - Local support respected - .618 Fibonacci in confluence - RSI coming of oversold - Stochastics in lower regions - Volume climax evident The trend is bearish for BHP, breaking key technical levels in the recent sell off. The 200 WMA is a vital level for the overall trend, current acting as resistance. Local support is in confluence with the .618 Fibonacci, breaking this level will target the 2.618 Fibonacci Extension. The RSI is currently extremely oversold; this is considered to be an oversold bounce if it recovers to neutral territory. Stochastics is in lower regions, can stay trading here for an extended period of time, however lots of stored momentum to the upside. Volume climax is evident; this suggests that the temporary bottom may be in. If BHP puts in a lower high, it will increase the chances taking local support out. Overall, in my opinion, BHP has a clear level, 200 WMA, a break will increase the bullish bias as the .618 will hold true. A rejection will increase the bearish outlook, thus the first target being the 2.618 Fibonacci Extension. What are your thoughts? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, “Trading mastery is a state of complete acceptance of probability, not a state of fight it.” ― Yvan Byeajee
ASX:BHP
by AzizKhanZamani
BTC Finally Closes Below Its 200-Week MA - What's Next?The BTC price has never reached a close below its 200-week MA (having come close on January and August 2015). The current weekly close is below the MA, albeit only incrementally. If we assume that the price fails to clearly reclaim it, it is likely to go down from here. The white dotted lines outline the current range of $4200-$600, while the black lines outlined the next possible range, found at $1700-$3300. The scenario that I am expecting to play out is a touch of the bottom at the range at $4200, followed by an upward move to validate the range high and the 200-week MA. In the alternative scenario, in which the price immediately decreases below the $4000 low, it is likely to trade within the second range, possibly creating a double bottom. Please leave a LIKE if you enjoyed the idea.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by BitcoinMaximus1
2