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200wma

Descending Triangle BreakdownIt may happen tomorrow or it may string us along until the end of the year but it would seem this descending triangle has the potential to drop back down to support from LAST YEAR'S descending triangle. If this takes as long as before and we end up consolidating well into it's apex that would give time for the 200 week MA to move up and create strong support again as well (just like last year). This also makes sense with the Fib retrace because dropping to last years support would put us in the "golden pocket" between the 61.8% and 65% lines. I drew the fib using monthly candles which is why it falls a little short from the top of the triangle, but considering how volatile price action was around that top, I feel it's a good spot. I am short until we reach the buy zone between 8500 and 5000 (I doubt it will fall past 6400 & 6000 though). Then I will gradually transition long for the inevitable run back up as we approach the halving next year.
BNC:BLXShort
by galamity
2
Why BTC could be going MUCH lower. Part 1: The Hammer strikesMoving averages. Whether you love them or hate them, trade with them or without them the fact of the matter is that some of them are very significant, even on their own as they can act as support and resistance. Once they cross however, their power can absolutely make or break a market as seen countless times in the stock and gold market but also with Bitcoin and, most recently, its death cross in April of 2018. What surprises me at this point in time is that not a lot of people, even the analysts that I follow and look up to, are talking about the impending MA cross that is about to happen. The 20 weekly (red) acted as support during the entire bull market and as heavy resistance during the current (and also previous) bear market. We are currently right below it and so far failed to push (decisively) through. The 200 weekly (green) is perhaps the most important MA in all asset classes across all time frames and, in relation to Bitcoin, represents a line that has literally NEVER been broken and in fact was the point at which the previous bear cycle bottomed/ended. In short, these two are probably THE MOST important MAs when it comes to Bitcoin, period. And they are about to have a cross. Since this has literally never happened before I can only guess what the outcome of this will be. I can tell you one thing though, expect some absolutely massive volatility. Think of it like a giant hammer, ready to either demolish everything in its way or produce a spectacular piece of metal art work. Timeframe? Assuming the MAs dont change trajectory significantly, expect the cross to happen as early as on the 8th of April but no later than on the 22th of April (blue box). My personal opinion is that we are getting closer to our final capitulation stage. Be on the lookout for Part II and III of the series where I will further expand on my extremely bearish views for the short and mid - term. Thank you!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Bluewhere
1wk 200MA Strong Support vs Strong Resistance of 1wk 20maOn the weekly chart we can see the weekly 200 simple moving average(in blue) has provided amazingly strong and as of now unbroken support. On the flip side of the spectrum, we can also see extremely strong resistance from the 20 week simple moving average(in orange) we have had 2-3 months here of very little volatility but we can see that both of those strong moving averages will be converging soon most likely resulting in an extremely volatile breakout either upward above the 20 weekly or a big breakdown below the weekly 200ma. Considering the price has already broken above the 20 weekly moving average a couple times, that is favorable for the 200ma being the one that holds support and breaks above...however we can also see on the weekly stoch rsi that we are very close to a bearish cross on the weekly stochrsi which adds to the probability of the 20 maintaining support and the price action instead breaking down below the weekly 200ma....either way the decision is gonna have to be amd one way or another very very soon here and currently both the bulls and the bears have a very good chance at prevailing here...keep a close eye on boh of these weekly moving averages the enxt few weeks here because they are currently the main event heavy weight matchup in crypto.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
Possible head and shoulder breakdown here...Target 3290Leaving this idea neutral but leaning more short....the head and shoudler pattern on the 4hour chart appears to be triggering a breakdown. We may need a follow up 4 hour candle to confirm this so a fakeout is still possible...but if confirmed we have a drop target of $3290. Of course there is the massive weekly 200ma support just above it that could rpevent thee breakdown to reach its full target were a breakdown to be validated...so watch for a bounce there should it be validated. Odds are good it will be triggered however as we are already seeing lots of volume on this candle. Probability favors a breakdown more so than a fakeout at this point.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
a look at the weekly charts 200 SMA and the impending grindown Keep in mind the falling wedge is a 4hour/1day chart pattern so its gonna look slightly strange here on the weekly chart but we are on the weekly chart to show just how close we are to making contact with the weekly 200 simple moving average. This MA provided ample bounce when we first hit it around the 3.1k region. I think we are about to slowly grind our way down over the next week or so straight into that Moving average again maybe even around $3333 or so but I anticipate a big bounce once we do enough of one to send us back up towards the top trendline of the current falling wedge we are in on the 4 hr and 1 day charts (shown here in green) I think we may bounce back and forth one or 2 more times after that inside the triangle before finally breaking bullish for a target of around 3.8k assuming the 200 weekly sma isn't enough to break us up out of the falling wedge prematurely. I'm gonna see if I can play the bounces of the pattern to my advantage before a breakout. Just my plan and not financial advice. Best of luck in whatever you choose to do.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
Bounce found right at bottom trendline of falling wedge: here is a link to the original falling wedge I initially charted on coinbase: s3.amazonaws.com you can see the bottom trendline when at this trajectory is the exact bounce spot our current price action has found good support at...I anticipate we will move back up to the top trendline of the wedge again before any kind of capitulation. We may test the bottom trendline a couple more times before that bounce towards the top trendline but I personally dont think capitulation will be until after we've bounced down once again from the top trendline of the wedge...however if we do retest the weekly 200ma that may be enough of a bounce to confirm capitulation so I'm still waiting to see how price reacts once we revisit that range which has gone up a little since we first visited it back around the 3.1k area. So for now I anticipate a bounce back up but am keeping this idea neutral because we may do a slow grind downward here and retst the bottom trendline of the wedge a few more times first before we head back to find resistance at the top trendline of the wedge.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
1 day falling wedge unveiledin the shortterm I expect a break down from the current red symmetrical triangle weve been in on the 4hour chart so this idea will be short for now...however in the medium term I now see a big falling wedge in green on the 1 day chart thats apex stretches to April and believe we will ultimately break upward from this pattern. Interestingly enough the target breakdown for the red symmetrical triangle pattern lines up exactly with the bottom trendline of the current green falling wedge pattern so I may set my limit buy right around 3364 because of this. i think we break down to 3360 or so, find support on the bottom trendline of this falling wedge then bounce back up to the top wedge from there around 3632...then get rejected back down and bounce up off the weekly 200ma or so then it sends us breaking up out of the wedge at around no lower than 3421 if we break out of the wedge there it can take us to 4.1k and far above that descending dotted white line of resistance we encountered originally back when people were thinking it was a neckline to a big inverted head and shoulder pattern..however just above that is the top trendline of the bigger falling wedge we are in at around 4.2k so that resistance may provide too strong to break we will have to wait and see...there is also the chance that the 200weekly MA may not hold in which case we will likely continue further down in the falling wedge and break upward closer to the apex. I think if we do go below there the horizontal yellow support trendline I have here on the chart at that range will hold good support. so short term I expect more downward motion but mid-long term I expect a break upward from this falling wedge.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
Bottom very near. One more final breakdown?A temporary short idea here but the target of this drop could be one of 7 potential targets shown here. To play it safe I am going to be setting a limit buy up right buy the 1 week 200ma(shown here in sky blue) it is conveniently lined up right with the neckline of the larger head and shoulders pattern so I anticipate the price action could attempt a head and shoulder breakdown fakeout and then have the 200 week moving average bounce the price action back up thereby essentially double bottoming off the 200 weekly MA coupled with the last bounce it did off of it at our most recent low and we could see a big bounce from there. However if the 200 weekly ma doesn't hold..I see 6 more potential big support zones here that I have linked and labelled with corresponding color price target boxes accordingly. I plan to limit buy the 200ma and buy the dip on each additional target it drops to..so even though this idea is short on the long term I'm very bullish.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
A look at the entire cryptomarket marketcap's falling wedgewe can see here on the weekly chart of the entire crypto marketcap that the market is very much so inside a falling wedge...one that seems to reach its apex in the middle of march....but as with most falling wedges a breakout from the wedge tends to happen very soon after 3/4ths of the wedge has completed so a breakout can be anticipated sometime within the next few weeks. we can see the 200 weekly moving average in blue for the cryptomarket has been holding very strong support the past few weeks...if this 200 week simple ma holds then we could breakout of the wedge in the next 2 weeks...if that's the case then the bottom is essentially already in...if it doesn't hold and dips below the next likely target is a double bottom on the horizontal teal trendline we have already touched once. Any dip that could happen below that would likely just be a big bounce up off the bottom trendline of the falling wedge. Once we trigger a break upward from the wedge the bottom of the bear market will almost certainly be in. A breakout fakeout candle followed by capitulation is also a possibility to consider so its wise to make absolutely sure the breakout is validated before jumping to conclusion.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by DrDovetail
1