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2022-2023

U.S Dollar Seasonal PullbackTVC:DXY U.S Dollar Index marked on the weekly chart The U.S Dollar has been on a tear the past year, almost breaking old highs from 2001. However, DXY has chosen to respect its historical seasonality with the pullback in recent weeks which I believe will continue further before ultimately re-aligning with the longer term bullish narrative. Confluences Seasonality: Dollar tends to begin a downtrend in the second half of November. Respected Monthly bearish order block at ~114.00. This is an area prior to the large bear trend formed in 2001. Market Structure Shift (MSS) by breaking the swing low at ~110.00. Most recent weekly candle disrespected a weekly imbalance by closing through it with enormous force (i.e support broken) Bullish order block with its mean threshold within an imbalance resides below. Lots of liquidity resting above the imbalance and order block, ripe for the taking. Not long ago I would have expected Dollar to zoom past 120.00, but recent price behavior has shown that a cooling off is at play. The time for Dollar all-time highs will come, but for now I am bearish. Dollar historical seasonality details: charts.equityclock.com
TVC:DXYShort
by Sans_Sheriff
Gold End of the Year RallyCOMEX:GC1! Gold Futures marked on the weekly chart Confluences: Major sellside liquidity taken with the break of the 2021 lows, should now seek the opposite: buyside. Respected the volume imbalance boxed at 1625-1650 by wicking up 3 times and candle bodies staying above; It shows signs of accumulation. Market Structure Shift (MSS). First time a short-term high was taken on the weekly chart this year. Very obvious bearish channel since the start of the year broken, therefore tons of liquidity to be taken from short sellers at previous highs. Relatively equal highs at ~2075. If a bullish reversal is at play, that is a magnet on price due to tons of liquidity resting above in the form of buy stops. Seasonality: Gold's best months are November, December, and January. If there was a best time to reverse, the coming months are it. See below for more details. I marked 1920.0 as another target because it is an institutional reaction level based on how price has traded around it since the end of 2020. If the ~2075 equal highs are not to be broken in the upcoming price run, at the very least 1920.0 should be the draw on price before a bearish reversal should be considered. My only concern is the triple bottom ~1625 which can be an attractive area for price to sweep before finally going up to take the previous highs. Gold historical seasonality details: charts.equityclock.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Sans_Sheriff
2
Happy New Year TradersHappy New Year. It has been a historic year in the markets. From the war in Russia to the Fall of Crypto. Here are my 5 top ideas from 2022. #5 Learning the Ichimoku Cloud. A 4 part idea breaking down how to read the indictor One technical analysis improvement I made in 2022 was learning the Ichimoku Cloud. I have found it invaluable for understanding trends and spotting future trends. #2 That’s Bait 10Y treasury note yield prediction This idea is a prediction of the 10Y reaching 2008 highs. #3 What is really moving markets this summer? In this idea I created the JHEQX Seagull and past rolls together to illustrate how markets, especially in the summer, are effected by this hedge. Since then I have posted several dozen ideas dedicated to this series. Check out my trading view feed for the rest. #2 There will be Blood I like to mix a movie theme combined with a chart or macro event and this one of There will be blood turned out the best. #1 How I look explaining WYCKOFF to family and friends By far one of the most popular since I started charting on Trading View. The idea was inspired by dozens of other WYCKOFF charts I had created in the past. I wanted to mix a chart idea (prediction) within a meme. The chart took me roughly 4 hours to draw. The hand holding the cigarette was the most difficult part.
AMEX:SPY
by SPYvsGME
1
Year of Parity, the Euro in 20222022 was the year that the Euro fell below the parity level against the US dollar. That means 1 EUR = 1 USD. The last time the Euro fell below the parity level was in Jan 2000 (22 years ago). And that time, it remained below parity for almost 3 years before breaking higher again. Fortunately, on this occasion, the time the Euro spent below parity was considerably shorter, with the price breaking higher, in 4 months. The early 2022 forecast for the Euro had already been a continuation of the downside, given that it had been dropping since 2021 from the 1.24 price area down to the 1.14 level. However, there were several factors that added to the massive decline in the EURUSD this year. In particular, the strength of the DXY, the Russian-Ukraine Conflict, and the increasing concern over the energy supply from Russia. (you can read more about the broad influences on the global market sentiment in my DXY review, in the link below) The European Central Bank (ECB) was considerably late in the game to increasing interest rates, despite inflation climbing in the Eurozone. In July , the ECB raised rates by 50bps (expected 25bps), and CPI for the Eurozone was at 8.6%. However, the rate increase saw little impact as the border conflict continued to weigh on the Euro. The EURUSD was still testing the parity level. As the Euro broke parity briefly, a 75bps rate hike in September saw the EURUSD reclaim some ground, but this was short-lived. As Putin announced a partial mobilisation of the Russian army, escalating and wiping out all hopes for a quick end to the border conflict. This move saw the Euro break the parity level to reach a historic low of about 0.9550. With many market participants expecting an even greater downside. In fact, the Euro was somewhat saved by the DXY. Weakness in the DXY toward the end of September saw the Euro trade between the 0.9550 and 1.00 price level with higher volatility. In October , the EBC raised rates to 2% BUT saw the EURUSD drop significantly following the release of the decision. This was due to the markets anticipating a "pivot" and slowdown in future rate hikes from the ECB. Finally, in December, the ECB raised to 2.50% but the focus was not so much on the 50bps hike. Rather it was on the very hawkish comments from Chair Lagarde, where she highlighted that The ECB saw significant increases ahead Should expect 50bps hike for period of time Anything thinking ECB is pivoting is wrong The Euro currently trades along the 1.0645 price level. Will 2023 see the Euro recover strongly? Reclaiming the high of 2022 or more? Stay tuned for the 2023 outlook!
by JinDao_Tai
5
GDP is Bad and You Should Feel BadThe GDP number of 2.7% growth is being propped up by net exports, while consumption is at a cycle low. This is horrible for earnings expectations and risk assets. Net exports were at a low in prior quarters, making the economy look worse off than it was. Now the economy is actually worse off than it is and the metric is instead making it look better. This is why the NBER doesn't use "two quarters of negative GDP" to date recessions. There are too many false signals. Don't fall for the GDP meme. The pain is coming.
FRED:GDPC1Short
by coinhoIio
Stop Trading the Fed Funds RateThe fed usually hikes into growth and eases when it realizes the economy is too weak to absorb the impact of the hikes, so historically stocks usually rise as the hiking begins and crashes when the fed takes their foot off the pedal. This time the fed is late. They hike as the housing market is brought to its knees and the economy is slowing. Equities are down, but this is not due to recession expectations. The bond market has reacted to rate hikes, bond yields rise, the discount rate affects the equity market by eating away at their earnings targets. The higher the yield is, the more your company has to make than that in growth to give incentive to invest in it over just holding fixed income. Rate hikes have many systemic effects like this that increase the cost of credit and directly impact the equity market. If you're holding risk assets you're better off with the Fed holding the line with the hikes in the short term. In the longer term we are screwed no matter what levers the fed pulls. Monetary magic can not save the economy now. Easing or slowing the hikes (which isn't my prediction, but a market's hope) would be a signal to another group of market participants that we haven't seen sell anything yet who are trading based off of what easing signals. So far equities have only reacted to changes in the discount rate. They have not started pricing in a recession and current price action is a bet on temporary economic contraction with no hard landing. Three different recession, three different initial conditions, same market behavior: The probability of a soft landing is zero percent. The mystery of this market isn't the direction it's how low it's actually going to go. The more funny retail money enters this market, the higher the chance we could see unprecedented drawdowns far worse than anyone so far has expected. Everyone in retail, their aunt, uncle, grandma, and dog, is trading speculatively based off the fed funds rate. They believe that a change in the pace of hikes or basis point increases will breathe life into the economy. They have not traded a market like this before. If you think the economy can recover without a crash, park into cash and sit this one out. Stop listening to these talking heads in mainstream media telling you everything will be ok. You are the customer and the product holding up their portfolio as they exit leaving you holding the bag.
AMEX:SPYShort
by coinhoIio
2
ETH bottom set in?Hello all, Just speculation for fun from a fellow beginner and ETH holder. We seem to be forming a pattern similar to 2018s Cycle bottom. 2018s cycle went down 94% from ATH to bottom. This cycle we've gone down around 70% from ATH. if cycles were to somewhat repeat we could be in for another 60% to 80% correction at the current price in the worst case scenario OR a 180% increase throughout late January / Early February of 2023 which would mean ETH at around 4k with room for growth if macro economics don't deteriorate too much. What do you think?
BINANCE:ETHUSDLong
by CondeTrading
XDC 2023 & 2028 possible priceusing a pitchfork along with an ascending channel. I am basing this ascending channel off of the first three points of contact at beginning of this channel along with a touch at the resistance top of ascending channel. We dipped below this ascending channel and in order for this channel to be respected, we will have to come back inside the channel. The Pitchfork is a good indicator of possible future price action. As you can see I have two price points at end of 2022 given we make contact at top of the channel $0.99 or top of Pitchfork $1.69. In 2028, which could be the next Bitcoin peak possibly over $1 million could bring the XDC price either at $346 if we respect the top of this ascending channel or a whopping $3,711 price at top of the Pitchfork.
Long
by altcoinb
5
BTC Long-termTF: W I think BTC price action could play out in a few different scenarios over the longer timeframe (1-2 years) outlook. Scenario 1: BTC is currently approaching a broken level of support around $44,500, this also aligns with the 1.382 extension from the move from $~20k to~$3.1k correction. If this rejection occurs and acts like a ceiling and holds below these current levels, then I think price could visit the ~$17k to ~$21k before pushing it up to 2.0 extension. If price breaks out at that level, then I think price could move to the 2.382 or higher to test the trend line. Scenario 2: BTC breaks out and breaks through the ATH and holds above (dashed line). I think price could move to the 2.382 extension levels.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MC_Mike_Trading