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2023

Happy New Year!Hello everyone! So the year 2022 has come to an end! Time flies! There were many ups and downs, there is no trend without corrections! The year was not easy, many events affected the market and I tried to help you overcome all market obstacles. We have learned a lot, done a lot, gained experience and are now ready to take on a new fight next year. May all our goals be achieved in 2023, our desires be fulfilled and we will become even better and will not stop improving. May the market always be on our side and profit does not leave us! Happy New Year!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Lingrid
9
Trading Series – The ManagementMost of us will spend about 90% of our time thinking of what to buy and at what price we should get in. In fact, that is only 10% of work done. Focus on this scenario instead - “After getting into a position, how are we going to manage it with either a calculated loss when market go against us or how should we take profits when market perform better than our expectation? As usual we will do a few case studies on how I manage my positions for this year. Today’s content: 1. 90% of us – Spending too much time on “Getting in” 2. Steps to manage our trades after an entry? If you have been following, today’s is the 7th tutorial in our Trading Series: 1. “The buy strategy” 2. “The sell strategy” 3. “Developing long & short-term view” 4. “Choosing between the time frame” 5. “The entry” 6. “The exit” 7. “The management” Example 1 Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.25 point = $0.50 1 point = $2 10 points = $20 100 points = $200 1,000 points = $2,000 Example 2 E-Mini Nasdaq Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.25 point = $5 1 point = $20 10 points = $200 100 points = $2,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by konhow
"Biting Point" Signal in Every Turn for 2022Stay-tune for the video version shortly, we will do more in-depth study. Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.25 point = $0.5 1 point = $2 10 points = $20 100 points = $200 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com I hope this tutorial will be helpful, in enabling you to read into the market with greater clarity.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by konhow
1
GOLD in 2023Hello everyone! Today I want to try to analyze the factors that will affect gold in the new year. We will try to understand what to expect from gold and where the price may end up. The difficulty of predicting GOLD prices Predicting a possible future is a difficult and thankless task for itself. Predicting the future price of gold is also difficult, because gold is an independent asset and it can be perceived as a separate currency. At the same time, if currencies can be tied to the economies of countries, then what should GOLD be tied to? The main indicators for gold are the volume of its purchases, the volume of invested funds of gold mining companies and the cost of gold production in general. Since gold is used in the jewelry industry, it is possible to predict the future price movement of an asset if you understand the future demand for jewelry, which is very difficult to do. With economic growth, people become richer and buy jewelry, which increases demand. Moreover, during economic downturns, it increases the amount of money invested in gold, so people try to escape from inflation and loss of money in a crisis. It is difficult to compare all these data with each other, because there is a lot of uncertainty in them, which is why the forecast for gold is a difficult matter. Profitable? Historically, gold is constantly growing. Since 2000, the price of gold has increased 6 times. Since 1970, gold has grown 51 times. Does this mean that it will grow next year as well? No. Such a large historical period gives us an idea of the direction of the main trend. 2023 The World Bank has made a forecast for the next year, which indicates that the price of gold will fall. But don't blindly believe other people's analytics. For example, the World Bank in 2018 predicted that in 2021 the price of gold will be equal to $ 1,247. Now we know that the price in 2021 was in the range from 1676 to 1950. You always need to conduct your own analysis and draw your own conclusions. Now let's try to understand what will happen in 2023. There are several main factors that point to the growth of gold next year: 1. Low interest rates 2. Raising inflation expectations 3. Higher oil prices 4. Increased demand from institutional investors 5. Devaluation of currencies of emerging economies Low interest rates The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds is at a historically low level. Now investing in such bonds will bring you 1.5% per year. That is very little and investors will look for alternative sources of income. Since the stock market is overheated, investing in gold looks like an attractive option. A large amount of investment funds will push up the price of gold. Rising inflation expectations Inflation is accelerating already this year and the US Federal Reserve predicts an increase in inflation in 2023. Inflation is growing every year and in 2022 it amounted to more than 4%. Inflation, as you know, devalues the currency, which increases the value of gold. The amount of gold that you could buy for $ 1,000 a few years ago is already worth more, and it will no longer be possible to buy the same amount for the same money, and this trend is expected to continue. Higher oil prices Historically high oil prices contribute to an increase in the value of gold. This can be explained by the fact that oil is an important factor in increasing inflation, the growth of which, as we noted above, weakens the currency, which positively affects the price of gold. Everything that makes the currency weaken makes gold only stronger. In 2023, according to analysts' forecasts, the price of oil will rise, respectively, we can expect an increase in gold. Increased demand from institutional investors In 2022, the record for the volume of gold purchases was updated. Central banks bought 400 tons of gold worth $ 20 billion, which is the highest figure in half a century. And there is an explanation for this: low interest rates and currency printing leads to currency depreciation. Banks need to somehow avoid losses. The stock market is overheated, and bonds give too small a percentage of profit, which, according to expectations, will not help to avoid even inflationary risks, and what remains? The market correction forces Central banks to buy huge volumes of gold, which inevitably pushes the price. Conclusions These are not all factors that may affect the growth of gold next year. In addition, the world is extremely volatile and there is a possibility of factors that will push the price down, for example, an increase in interest rates or other drastic changes related to inflation and, for example, the adoption of cryptocurrencies by world banks. Unexpected and drastic political decisions and the actions of some countries have already been able to affect the global economy this year. That is why long-term forecasting of such an important asset for the global economy as gold is extremely difficult. It is necessary to be objective in the analysis, open to the possible emergence of new factors and soberly assess the real situation. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Lingrid
14
2022 Yearly Recap - SPY QQQ DIA IWM DXY US02Y EFFR USIRYY Looking back over the last year (22'), as the saying goes "hindsight is 20-20". That said, here's the recap on the 22' market cycle against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hiking Cycle (one of the fastest on record) — while at the same time, we (investors) are all asking "What's next for 23'?" TOP SECTION DXY - Dollar Index ($104.51) 🔼 ✅ (Green Line) US02Y - U.S. 2yr Treasury (4.38%) 🔼 ✅ (Black Line) US10Y - U.S. 10yr Treasury (3.84%) 🔼 ✅ (Blue Line) EFFR - Effective Federal Funds Rate (4.33%) 🔼 ✅ (Orange Line) USIRYY - U.S. YoY Inflation Rate, Federal Reserve Target Rate = 2% (7.10%) 🔼 ✅ (Baseline = 2%, Red = Above Target, Green = Below Target) BOTTOM SECTION SPY - S&P 500 SPX ES1! (YTD 22', -19.92%) 🔽 🩸 QQQ - Nasdaq NQ (YTD 22', -33.95%) 🔽 🩸 DIA - Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA (YTD 22': -8.77%) 🔽 🩸 IWM - Russell 2000 RUT (YTD 22': -22.57%)🔽 🩸 Prediction(s) these asset classes for 23'? Let me know your macro trade(s) in the comments below! 👇🏼 All Asset Class Chart Template 📊👇🏼 www.tradingview.com Index Chart Template w/ YTD Return Indicator 📊👇🏼 www.tradingview.com
TVC:DXY
by kylemusserco
What happened with the Pound in 2022!The GBPUSD had so much potential heading into 2022, as markets anticipated some possibility of the UK navigating through the Brexit ordeal. The BoE was one of the first central banks to increase rates, BUT YET , we saw the Pound getting pounded down, from the 1.35 price area down to the HISTORIC low of 1.036, with huge speculation that the GBPUSD could even reach PARITY . In addition to what we already know (you can read more about it in the links below) DXY strength Russian-Ukraine conflict EURUSD reaching parity The decline in the GBPUSD was also driven by SIGNIFICANT political chaos. Prime Minister Boris Johnson was replaced in September by Liz Truss, who was replaced in October by Rishi Sunak (A change of 3 Prime Ministers in the space of 2 months) On 23rd September , UK Finance Minister Kwasi looked to boost the country's economic growth by introducing a series of tax cuts, totaling 45 billion pounds by 2026-27. However, the market was spooked by the scale of the fiscal giveaway and the immediate reaction was to sell UK govt bonds. While the FTSE 100 fell to its lowest level since March, the ground gave way on the GBPUSD as it crashed from the 1.1255 price level down to the 1.0360 historical low (23rd to 26th September) Further decline in the GBPUSD was saved by a quick intervention from the BoE as it pledged an unlimited long-dated bond-buying program to restore stability and orderly market conditions. Fortunately for the UK, the rapid change in the Prime Minister, BoE intervention, U-turn in tax policy, and introduction of a new austerity package has had some positive impact on the GBPUSD. In November, the new Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt released a series of spending cuts and tax rises in an attempt to plug the hole in the public finances. The GBPUSD has recovered strongly from the 1.0360 price level in September to reach the 1.25 price area in December. However, the UK pound is not out of the woods yet! Inflation in the UK still stands at 10.7% with interest rates at 3.50%. AND there is dissent within the BoE as the most recent rate decision votes indicated that 2 members voted to hold rates at 3.00% (7 voted to hike). Could the BoE risk a pivot at this point? Is there enough momentum in the current slowdown of inflation growth, that it could reach the BoE's target level? Stay Tuned for the 2023 outlook!
by JinDao_Tai
Year of Parity, the Euro in 20222022 was the year that the Euro fell below the parity level against the US dollar. That means 1 EUR = 1 USD. The last time the Euro fell below the parity level was in Jan 2000 (22 years ago). And that time, it remained below parity for almost 3 years before breaking higher again. Fortunately, on this occasion, the time the Euro spent below parity was considerably shorter, with the price breaking higher, in 4 months. The early 2022 forecast for the Euro had already been a continuation of the downside, given that it had been dropping since 2021 from the 1.24 price area down to the 1.14 level. However, there were several factors that added to the massive decline in the EURUSD this year. In particular, the strength of the DXY, the Russian-Ukraine Conflict, and the increasing concern over the energy supply from Russia. (you can read more about the broad influences on the global market sentiment in my DXY review, in the link below) The European Central Bank (ECB) was considerably late in the game to increasing interest rates, despite inflation climbing in the Eurozone. In July , the ECB raised rates by 50bps (expected 25bps), and CPI for the Eurozone was at 8.6%. However, the rate increase saw little impact as the border conflict continued to weigh on the Euro. The EURUSD was still testing the parity level. As the Euro broke parity briefly, a 75bps rate hike in September saw the EURUSD reclaim some ground, but this was short-lived. As Putin announced a partial mobilisation of the Russian army, escalating and wiping out all hopes for a quick end to the border conflict. This move saw the Euro break the parity level to reach a historic low of about 0.9550. With many market participants expecting an even greater downside. In fact, the Euro was somewhat saved by the DXY. Weakness in the DXY toward the end of September saw the Euro trade between the 0.9550 and 1.00 price level with higher volatility. In October , the EBC raised rates to 2% BUT saw the EURUSD drop significantly following the release of the decision. This was due to the markets anticipating a "pivot" and slowdown in future rate hikes from the ECB. Finally, in December, the ECB raised to 2.50% but the focus was not so much on the 50bps hike. Rather it was on the very hawkish comments from Chair Lagarde, where she highlighted that The ECB saw significant increases ahead Should expect 50bps hike for period of time Anything thinking ECB is pivoting is wrong The Euro currently trades along the 1.0645 price level. Will 2023 see the Euro recover strongly? Reclaiming the high of 2022 or more? Stay tuned for the 2023 outlook!
by JinDao_Tai
5
Consolidation and Correction of Christmas Hello Traders Merry Christmas. As you know, each year that we get close to holidays and the new year, Bitcoin volume and open Intrest drop; in conclusion, we will see less volatility in the price, and I believe that's why we had this much consolidation on the current price zone. The price might continue the consolidation. On the Onchain side, it's visible that there is a significant movement in wallets; they are moving their bitcoins, some in profit and some in loss; this alone indicates that the price is more likely to see lower levels in this time period than upper levels. I screenshotted a metric called CDD from Glassnode, which shows what I mentioned. Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) for any given transaction is calculated by taking the number of coins in a transaction and multiplying it by the number of days it has been since those coins were last spent. Note that this is an Intraday analysis and is only valid for a couple of days or even hours. Enjoy the holidays, and Again, Merry Christmas. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ What is your opinion? Comment below. If you like the idea, please hit the boost button and follow me so you will get the updates. The information given is never financial advice. Always do your research too. Good luck.
by Crypto_MD
4
XLM Stellar 2025 price target of $34We have an ascending channel that depends on a low for XLM of between $0.042 and $0.05 price target sometime in the 1st quarter of 2023. In 2017 we had a meteoric rise of 67k% (67,000%) from the low price of $0.0015 beginning of 2017 up to the high of $0.93 by end of 2017. If we use a fractal and use the same percentage increase for 2025 the price of XLM could possibly hit a $34 target. I also have $8 on a Fibonacci line that could play a possible target as well. Will these actually happen is anyone's guess. No one has a crystal ball but we could use past percentages and fibs to make as close a determination as possible. A special note to keep in mind is the March deadline for the Ripple case to come to an end, therefore, giving both XRP and XLM good reasons for a rise in price action. Of course, this is all speculative and should be taken seriously considering all macros and other trading factors when making a decision to acquire both assets.
COINBASE:XLMUSDLong
by altcoinb
2
You've missed these in 2022: DXY This is definitely not a complete list of events that happened for the year, just a snapshot of the highlights. What a year it has been for the DXY, starting at around 96.00 and rose to a historic high of 114.75 before retracing back down again. (In comparison, the DXY only rose from 89.65, up to the 96 price level in 2021) There were many contributing factors to this historic rise in the DXY, and to be fair, a lot of it did not have to do with the performance of the US economy. On the 21st Feb 2022, Russian President Putin signs a decree declaring the Luhansk People's Republic and Donetsk People's Republic as independent from Ukraine, and, despite international condemnation and sanctions, begins a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A flight toward reserve currency/commodity saw the commencement of the dollar bull, with the DXY quickly climbing to reach the 100 price level 17th March 2022 , the US Federal Reserve begins on its path to hike interest rates, to combat the inflation rate growth (7.9%) Toward the end of April , jawboning from Chair Powell, about a 50bps rate hike saw the DXY rocket upward to reach the 104 price level. In May, with inflation still climbing (8.3%) but GDP now entering into negative territory, the fears regarding a US-led global recession/stagflation begins to mount. June 2022 , inflation is at 8.6% and the federal reserve has just increased rates by 75bps, taking interest rates to 1.75% The DXY broke through the key price level of 105 a couple of days after the rate hike. July 2022, inflation has now climbed to a historic high of 9.1%. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war is felt, not just from a conflict perspective, but the increasing cost of energy, commodity, and food. The Federal Reserve conducted another 75bps rate hike, with the interest rate climbing to 2.50%. During this period, most major currencies are losing significant ground against the Greenback, especially the Euro and the Yen, causing central banks to embark on massive interventions. Given that the DXY had been climbing from 96.00 to approach 110 in 8 months, the markets were keenly eyeing the Jackson Hole event in August , anticipating for Chair Powell to signal the possibility of a pivot in the monetary policy path. But what we got instead was further jawboning about more rate hikes to come, and a reiteration of the FOMC's commitment to fight inflation growth. This was probably the last straw, as the DXY continued to rocket upward, blasting past 110 to reach the historic high of 114.75 in September, following another rate hike of 75bps from the Feds. Interest rate now stands at 3.25% Toward the end of September, improving consumer sentiment data showed that despite inflation growth and increasing interest rates, the economic performance of the US has been resilient. This provided some market confidence that the Federal Reserve could begin to pivot sooner rather than later, which consequently saw the reversal of the DXY. In October and November, inflation growth begins to indicate a slowdown. However, the Federal Reserve was still increasing rates at 75bps (interest rates were now at 4.00%). But as talk about terminal rates increases and the anticipation for a slowdown in the scale of rate hikes, the DXY continues to trade lower. In December , the inflation rate slows down to 7.1% the Federal Reserve's most recent rate hike was only 50bps, the DXY has retraced below 110 and now trades along the 104 price level. Is this the beginning of the bearish DXY? (Please put it in the comments if I've left out any key events) And stay tuned for the 2023 outlook!
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
7
[Bear Market] End in sightThere is not long to go until the bear market is complete You can see a descending triangle which is a bearish formation, I believe bitcoin will bottom out around 11,000~9,000usd worst case scenario You can see the fall off in sell volume and the rise of the rsi, throughout bitcoins history this has always indicated the bottom of bitcoin, especially trading under the 200 ema for this length. Patience will make you money. In the year 2023, I will accumulate as many crypto assets as possible for the 2024 bitcoin halving. Expect another 3~4 Month Bearish Trend Thank you please like/comment
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by EvanHearne
2
The bear market isn’t overCPI data from the inflation is nothing but a rally because cools down. %7.3 down to almost 7% BUYERS THIS IS NOT ENOUGH… we are still in a bear market also this still lead to a recession fears because the Feds will keep raising interest hikes. The important meeting is on the 15th the Feds decision. For bitcoin we aren’t bottomed yet.. bitcoin could drop down 12-10k as we already know it because it’ll lead to miner capitulation is when they’ll exit and this will lead to a death spiral. Overall it is repeating itself back in 2018, before it hits 19k we should be seeing a huge massive drop. Should expect a bottom to hit sometime before Q2 of 2023.. I know 12-10K is the bottom .. if it doesn’t confirm then we will see even further downside. Trade safe y’all and becareful
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
SPY alternative paths into 2023 draftSame game, choosing a path according to the data today. "controlled recession" vs Hard recession bad market conditions and rates hikes, meaning we need more time to recover vs inflection goes down, and the COMPETE ACT accelerates US adaptation towards competition + more China bans and regulation (against big tech's in silicon valley). As well, in future their is higher chance China Taiwan war before the next president elections (requires preparation). Lets see how it goes, Green, Yellow, Red paths are ready to go.
AMEX:SPY
by Michaelpg
Short-term trading beat long-termWhy short-term trading into the US market beats the long-term investing in the year 2023? As much as the Fed wanted to dial down the interest hike for the rest of the coming meetings, but they have limited control. It all depends on the forthcoming data, especially the CPI and the employment numbers. If these data continue to have a higher number, the Fed may not have a choice, but to resume back to its massive rate hike. There are 4 types of investor or traders, they are: 1. Long term investor 2. Short term investor 3. Short term trader 4. Intra-day trader Greater volatility is expected in 2023 and why the 2,3, and 4 may works better in 2023. This is what we will be discussing today: Content: • Investing types & its time-frame • Short-term trading strategy CME Micro E-Mini S&P Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.25 point = $1.25 1 point = $5 10 points = $50 100 points = $100 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by konhow
2