Bitcoin's 2025 Price Action Mirrors 2017 - Is History Repeating?Bitcoin Halving & The Trump Factor: A Historical Parallel
Bitcoin's price action in 2025 is eerily reminiscent of the post-halving rally of 2017. In both cases, BTC saw a prolonged accumulation phase before a massive markup period. What's even more intriguing is how macro-political events align: Trump was elected in November 2016 , just before BTC went parabolic in 2017, and once again, he's elected in November 2024 , right before Bitcoin enters its explosive post-halving markup phase. Could this be more than just coincidence?
Accumulation Phase Ends – The Markup Begins
From November 9, 2024 , to February 28, 2025 , Bitcoin was in a 107-day accumulation phase . This mirrors previous post-halving cycles, where BTC consolidates in the Green HPR band before entering the next stage. Now, it appears we are entering the Markup Phase, where I expect Bitcoin to rally towards $120K+ in the coming months.
Applying the 2017 Cycle to 2025
The 2017 bull run followed a 59:156:360-day cycle (Accumulation → Markup → Distribution). Using the same ratio and expanding it for 2025, I’ve projected a 107:280:646-day cycle , where:
✅ 107 days Accumulation (Completed!)
📈 280 days Markup (Just Beginning!)
📉 646 days Distribution & Declining (Post-Top Phase)
This fractal projection aligns well with historical price action, reinforcing the likelihood of Bitcoin repeating this structure.
BitBo’s Rainbow Regression Chart Confirms the Setup
Looking at BitBo’s Bitcoin Rainbow Halving Price Regression Chart , BTC briefly dipped into the blue band , just like in 2017’s first wave. However, in both cases, Bitcoin quickly recovered within days and launched into its Markup phase , which is exactly what we’re seeing now!
🔹 Key Takeaway: Bitcoin is following its historic halving cycle patterns, and if history continues to rhyme, the next 280 days could be a wild ride to six-figure BTC prices! 🚀
Don't forget,
Patience is Paramount
2025
Is Bitcoin Topping Out? Critical Levels to WatchSince the low of $15,476 on November 21, 2022, Bitcoin has surged to an all-time high of $109,588 on January 20, 2025. That’s an incredible +608% increase over 791 days. We also hit the long-anticipated $100K mark. But for almost three months now, Bitcoin has been stuck in a range between $90K and the all-time high, showing some indecision in the market.
Looking Back: Market Structure & Trends
Bitcoin spent over 250 days consolidating between $50K and $70K before finally breaking out in November 2024, right around the U.S. election. That breakout triggered a massive rally, pushing Bitcoin to 100K in just one month. Since then, bulls and bears have been battling it out, trying to establish control over this crucial psychological level.
A look at the pitchfork tool shows that Bitcoin has been rejected at the 0.618, 0.666, and 0.786 levels multiple times while trying to push higher. Recently, we lost the median line of the pitchfork and dropped below 100K, suggesting bullish momentum is fading. The 233 SMA/EMA on the 4-hour TF as well as the 21 EMA/MA on the daily TF has also flipped into resistance, adding to the bearish pressure.
Is February Shaping Up to Be a Bearish Month?
If we compare the current cycle to the 2020 bull market, the price action looks similar, forming a top where Bitcoin struggles to break higher. February could bring a healthy correction before any new leg up.
Key Support Zones & Confluences
Here’s where we could see solid support:
Unfilled CME Gap at $77,930 – Historically, Bitcoin tends to fill these gaps over time
Pitchfork Lower Support Line (~$80K) – If Bitcoin drops, this level aligns with multiple confluences by late February or early March
Fib Speed Fan (0.618 from $50K to ATH) – Perfectly lines up with the pitchfork lower support around $80K
Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension (1.618) – Another confluence at the $79K mark
Fib Retracement (0.5 from $50K to ATH) – Adds more support at $79.3K
Negative Fibonacci Retracement (-0.618) – Lands right at the open gap, reinforcing this zone
Daily 233 EMA/MA – Sitting at $81.3K and $76.4K, further supporting this region
Key Support Zone: $80K - $78K – With all these confluences, this is a strong area for a potential long setup
Additional Support Zone: FWB:88K - $86K – Another important region to watch for a bounce
Resistance Levels & Confluences
Psychological Resistance at 100K – A major battle zone between bulls and bears
Daily 21 EMA/MA (~$99.5K - 101K) – A key resistance level that could cap any upward movement
233 SMA/EMA on the 4H Timeframe – Now acting as resistance, adding pressure to the downside
Potential Trade Setups
Long Setup #1: A potential entry from FWB:88K - $86K
Long Setup #2: $80K - $78K support zone with confirmation could present a high-probability trade
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin is facing strong resistance at 100K, with multiple technical indicators suggesting a possible pullback. While the bigger trend remains bullish, February might bring a correction, providing great long opportunities around the FWB:88K - $86K and $80K - $78K region. Keep an eye on key support zones and look for confirmation signals before jumping into trades.
New Indicator Release
The 4H, Daily, and Weekly support zones seen on the charts are from my new indicator, which I released for free a few days ago. Feel free to check it out and incorporate it into your analysis.
Polkadot 2025 Bull-Market: Long-Term Accumulation Zone ActiveThis is one of the easiest trades to take.
Polkadot (DOTUSDT) is now activating a long-term, bottom range, support and accumulation zone. Each time this price range becomes active what follows is a bullish breakout.
Here is the interesting part. This zone was first activated in late 2022, as part of the previous bull-market correction or bear-market.
In 2023 we had the recovery year so the growth period was very small compared to 2021. 2024 is the same, the "initial bullish breakout" and this is very small compared to 2021 and what happens now, 2025.
2025 is different. 2025 is bull-market year and goes in the same proportion with 2021 but much higher.
Why would 2025 end up producing much higher prices compared to 2021 rather than the same levels? Because the market is bigger now. Because the market is evolving and everything that is related to Cryptocurrency is being globally accepted. There are so many positive developments that it is hard to mention but let's give it a try.
The USA is now favorable towards the Cryptocurrency market. This might be the biggest development of all. Other countries that were unfavorable are following the USA and changing their policies.
Many countries are considering a "Bitcoin reserve." Unique dynamics developing now.
There are many new companies, many new projects and global adoption continues to expand. Crypto is now mainstream and legal all across the world.
This can make the 2025 bull-market the biggest bull-market in the history of Crypto. If it doesn't, well, prices are going up and that's more than enough for us to be bullish and to go LONG.
Polkadot is now going bullish. Prices will go literally off this chart.
We will visit the 2025 ATH potential in a new publication.
If you want the information now, you can always visit my profile and type DOTUSDT.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Let's trade together long-term.
Namaste.
GOLD - Still Bullish Indeed!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈XAUUSD has been overall bullish, trading within the rising wedge marked in orange.
Moreover, the blue zone is a strong structure and support.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of structure and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #GOLD is around the the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
If the blue zone is broken downward, a deeper bearish movement towards the $2,775 demand zone would be expected.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
(ETH) ethereumWhen can we expect to see reports on the new concepts about Ethereum in the future?
Buying mode, price of Ethereum well under the dotted line. Ethereum has not had a strong position for some time and is likely to find profits. One large drop in price does not usually follow another than another than another and especially not with such large volume and capital. Am I in control of the flow, no. Do I have billions to make heavy movements, no. Am I interested in the progress of Ethereum despite holding little to no value in Ethereum, yes.
Solana (SOL/USDT) Showing Bearish Signs – Further Downside 1DSolana (SOL) is currently displaying bearish price action on the charts. After failing to hold key support levels, the price has started trending downward, signaling potential further downside.
Large market participants appear to be interested in accumulating Solana at lower price levels. Current price action suggests that smart money is patiently waiting for a deeper pullback before stepping in with significant buy orders.
Potentially interesting entry points for Solana could be approaching very soon. With the current bearish price action, the market may offer attractive opportunities for buyers looking to enter at discounted levels.
Total2 Bullish Setup: Potential Altcoin Breakout IncomingThe Total2 chart, representing the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin, is showing strong bullish signs, suggesting a potential altcoin breakout.
Should watch for confirmation signals such as increased volume, BTC dominance trends, and key breakout levels to position for potential high-reward altcoin opportunities.
Bitcoin Dominance Likely to Drop – Key Levels to WatchBitcoin dominance is showing signs of weakness and may be heading for a drop. The dominance chart suggests a potential reversal as key resistance levels are being tested and rejected.
Should monitor price action closely. If BTC.D falls further, altcoins might experience a strong relief rally. Stay prepared!
(SHIB) shiba inuThere is no cup and handle coming. The activity online by community programmer Kusama and other people seem to have led to a disgracing of the SHIB token and all that has happened is losing. Too much talk, not enough action. Silence is golden inu. There is still hope for Shiba Inu on the likes the acceptance of Shiba came far before many other meme tokens. Right now the Solana craze is being phased out in favor of Base chain memes. Base seems to be countering the popularity of Ethereum. Shiba Inu on Ethereum is not seen as trending the same way Solana memes and now Base memes are trending.
(RL) ralph lauren A chart to view Ralph Lauren through some visual of my indicators for anyone who wants to see. Make what you will from the image and make up your own mind about the fear and greed concept for Ralph Lauren right now. Will the price continue, or will the price not?
The shares represents shares bought. The green line would then mean there are few shares bought and the shares are soon to go negative against the price of the stock. The more shares bought the higher the line spikes, pertaining to the lineMath_v3 (shares) indicator.