225jpy
NIkkei 225 10 year ProfileBOJ intervened for the first time since 1998, to prop up it's the YEN, with some speculation they likely sold a lot of their massive reserves of long end (10-30 year) US T Bills to buy back the Yen. This hypothesis appears supported by the lack of short end yield movement at 4-5a, EST at time of BOJ intervention announcement late last week. Of note in this chart are:
- Almost a decade long volume profile aligned with vPOC at 382 retrace.
- Structure of current price action seemingly mirroring the covid structure as represented by the fractal in light blue above.
China-U.S. agreement opens up space for A-shares to risePresident Trump Yesterday brought a New Year's gift to investors around the world, tweeting that he and Prime Minister Liu will sign the first phase of the China-U.S. trade deal at the White House on January 15 and will visit Beijing later to begin negotiations on the second phase of the agreement.
This is undoubtedly an important message, indicating that the two-year-long trade war is finally about to press the pause button, which is good for China and the global economy. Of course, fo r China's A-shares is more important good. I believe that in the first quarter, more funds will flow into the market.
Let us compare another trade conflict that took place 30 years ago, the us-Japan trade war, when the US and Japan signed the Plaza Agreement on September 22, 1985, and we look at the Nikkei index, which rose by 207% from 1985 to December 1989. This is at odds with the damage many people have done to trade wars. As for the reasons, I have also analyzed it before.
At the moment we look at A-shares, it's very likely that the Nikkei will be replicated and there's a chance of doubling in 2020.